2024-25 Yankees Offseason
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
I'm just catching up to this conversation, and I take the other side of the position that the Yankees have added enough talent (and by talent, I'm assuming we're talking about production).
This feels eerily similar to the past decade or so when Hal/Cashman have added pieces that look to have potentially good VALUE, but aren't outright growth commodities (I grew up in Mutual Funds, sorry). After years of betting on value, this team dove in heavy to the large cap growth concept as it pertains to their position players with Soto, it worked really well, and now this offseason feels like a reversion to the philosophy that got them into lineup problems in the first place. Their satisfaction in assembling their lineup this offseason is built almost completely on the idea of value, and not actual raw production.
Every offseason in recent memory of the Hal regime feels pretty good based on a whole bunch of "ifs", and in terms of their positional free agent/trade acquisitions, this one feels no different to me at this point. The only rational hope I have is a belief in the youth that one or more of them can turn in a 4+ WAR and/or a 130+ wRC+ season - that's really on the table from my perspective. But I see a plurality of avenues to this type of team following the "very good regular season record, easy to shut down in the postseason" template because there's still no reliable high-end production here outside of Judge.
Hal and Cashman's Yankees have been very focused on paying for a piece that gives a certain, often relatively pedestrian, baseline, but planting the seed that they see pie-in-the-sky value value in potentially unlocking some aspect of the player's game. Like taking the value prop in trading for the walk year of Rizzo's highly-palatable contract in 2021 when he was kind of sputtering, re-signing him that offseason to a deal, seeing him put up a good but unspectacular year in 2022, then re-signing him again after he opted out to a 3 year deal because in their eyes it offered great potential value - lefty at the Stadium, good clubhouse guy, and it had huge upside with the shift being banned in 2023. This contract might be a STEAL! Instead they had locked into a relatively predictable/probable/foreseeable natural decline based on age and injury.
If everyone currently in the Yankees lineup produces along the natural progression of their career arcs based upon the last 2-3 seasons, and specifically what they did last year, this team is still the favorite for the division based on Judge and a very good pitching staff, but I'm not sure they're better than last year. The optimism in this assemblage is based in players having large rebounds or leaps, and while possible, having multiple occurrences - without any of the dramatic fall-offs the Yankees have endured every season over the past decade - is just not something I see as probable.
On a more positive note - I'm absolutely loving that 7 of the 9 members of the current lineup have Steamer projections of a wRC+ over 100. The highest is just 117 (Stanton) outside of Judge (170), but that kind of solid production across an entire lineup would be really, REALLY welcome after the Badwater Basin issues we've seen of this team since the pandemic.
I'm going to be super pissed if the Yankees replace Gleyber with someone who will make me miss Gleyber. I don't give a shit how many singles he can hit in front of Judge.
That said, looking at Arraez's defensive stats, I see that he had positive DRS at 2B in 2023 (+5) and some years previous. Was he injured last season? Did he get fat or something? I'm curious what that is all about. It was his age 27 season. Too young for age related decline.
Their 'growth commodities' are internal, they tried to keep one in Soto and got outbid by an irrational lunatic billionaire fan. They got Chisholm last year but you keep talking about adding these high ceiling guys extermally, who are almost impossible to add.
So yeah, they need young guys (Dominguez, Volpe, Wells) to blossom and they need former MVPs (Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Stanton) to have solid/bounceback seasons, but they've also got the best 1-5 rotation on paper that NY has had in a long time (2003?).
I mean, he was doing great for NY until his concussion, which we can chalk up to age but the same thing happened to Clint Frazier.
But it's easy to say 'don't settle for Rizzo' and much much harder to plug in someone better. I would argue that Joey Gallo was a big swing by Cashman, he had MVP-type upside in NY if he had just kept to his track record, a superb corner OF who should have had 40 HRs with the short RF.
That first two-year DJ LeMahieu contract was pretty awesome. It's a shame with all the injuries that the follow-up hasn't worked out.
I'm starting to come around on Arraez a bit, he is still 27 and averaged over 4 bWAR from 2021-23 (3.4, 4.2, 4.9). Last year he was not very good (but still won the NL batting title, heh), but he had thumb surgery after the season so maybe he gets a pass. He is only under contract for one year and will make about $15M in arb, he shouldn't cost much to trade for.
I guess if the shit defense was related to injury, one year isn't too bad if the price isn't high. But I think a "BATTING CHAMPION" reputation might carry too much weight in negotiations. That said, Arraez, coming off of a down season, will be on his fourth team in just a handful of years, so how high can the price be?
I would still rather see Jazz at 2B. And honestly, beyond the singles hitter thing, I also don't care for guys who refuse to take walks, even if they can hit for average.
Ah well. I trust Cashman.
I would still rather see Jazz at 2B. And honestly, beyond the singles hitter thing, I also don't care for guys who refuse to take walks, even if they can hit for average.
Ah well. I trust Cashman.
I also heard that last year, while he wasn't great, he was best when he was hitting from the leadoff spot.
Lux to the Reds per Passan
View: https://twitter.com/jimmyrandazzo/status/1876388631805612496?s=46&t=-M7K07aV9oTvsCKHtZkfZQ
View: https://twitter.com/jimmyrandazzo/status/1876388631805612496?s=46&t=-M7K07aV9oTvsCKHtZkfZQ
Yes, absolutely agree. That was the perfect space to play the value game, and they did it masterfully with that initial contract and utilization of DJ.
I think is where I see it differently, and it's exactly what I was talking about in my initial post. I don't chalk this kind of failed decision making to "it's a shame", because I feel like, even if there was reason for optimism and belief in that contract (I don't recall having any major problem with it personally), the fact is there were all kinds of red flags about him as a long term investment.
Just look at his Fangraphs page summary, it really tells the whole story about how the Yankees made a questionable bet:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dj-lemahieu/9874/stats?position=2B
It's not hard to see a player who had played in the Majors across 8 seasons with the Cubs and Rockies, and posted a wRC+ above league average in exactly ONE of them. The Yankees scooped him on a value play in the market as he came off yet another below average offensive season (87 wRC+), based on him being a plus defender who had a singular popup offensive season in his 8 years of ML experience - the hope was that they could unlock the offense seen in that popup year three years prior. And they did! Then the pandemic hit, the two years was up, and they paid him longterm good money at age 32 based on him replicating over 195 games the 1 out of 8 years we saw in his career before signing with the Yankees.
And then it turned out that those really were the outliers, and that the overwhelming volume of evidence pointing to him being a hard working good teammate, good glove, league average or slightly worse bat, with the kind of plate discipline and bat control that can result in anomalous offensive spikes, is exactly what he is. Add in injuries and age decline, and it unfortunately becomes a textbook situation my Bronx born, raised, and accented father-in-law shrugs off with an, "eh, you get what you deserve".
For the record, this isn't me saying that I think the Yankees are dumb or something along those lines, there just seems to be a through line with a heavy reliance on this consistent stream of big-brained value plays in place of just paying for what you want/need when it's available. The Yankees under Hal & Cash always seem to place too much importance on them relative to their production - whether they pan out or not. So when Josh Donaldson fails straight out the gate, it costs them two whole seasons, when they can't unlock IKF like we all hoped at his acquisition it costs them 2.5 seasons, and when DJ LeMahieu works out well for a little over a year, it costs them the a significant chunk of payroll and lineup production for the next five.
I hope this is true because Arraez is this generation's second base incarnation of Hal Morris. No thank you.
...but you could very, very, VERY easily talk me into Lux. I'm a sucker for super-extreme pedigree like his, he hasn't exactly cratered as he's coming off two seasons of league average production, and you'd be acquiring him before his age 27 season. Yeah, I'm a total sucker for this type of move, though I have a great deal of trust in the Yankees scouting these types of still young, ex-prospects.
I mean, I wasn't thrilled about bringing back DJ either, but he had just finished 4th and 3rd in the MVP voting for the two previous seasons, and they paid him $15M AAV (admittedly for way too many years to bring the AAV down). If he had gone anywhere else and put up even one more season like that, Cashman would have been ripped a new one for years.
Maybe I'm misremembering the discussion we had here, and if I am, I'm sure someone will show me, but I thought DJ was a good bet to decline somewhat gracefully and was happy at the AAV they signed him for, which I think took into account a reasonable decline, even with the extra years. Too many guys get to NYC and can't adjust for whatever reason*. DJ did in those first two years and I do think injuries probably robbed him of two more 3 WARish seasons and accelerated his decline. So yeah, to me: bad luck.
I don't think the Yankees should take up too many roster spots with "middle class veteran" types, but there are so many stars you can reasonably go after and only so much prospect capital to trade for them. And they do make those moves too. Relying on kids to fill in too many holes is risky too, but yeah, I wish they'd do that a little more. At least with hitters. They've done fine with pitchers for the most part.
* Edit: When they find a guy who "fits" and is fine with the bright lights of NYC, I'm good with them extending themselves a little to keep him.
I don't think the Yankees should take up too many roster spots with "middle class veteran" types, but there are so many stars you can reasonably go after and only so much prospect capital to trade for them. And they do make those moves too. Relying on kids to fill in too many holes is risky too, but yeah, I wish they'd do that a little more. At least with hitters. They've done fine with pitchers for the most part.
* Edit: When they find a guy who "fits" and is fine with the bright lights of NYC, I'm good with them extending themselves a little to keep him.
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This is why I said my point isn't that I think I can do better than the Yankees, because I have no idea how to properly evaluate the risks of these types of transactions - especially as compared to a billion dollar organization. I don't recall having any significant negative reaction to the second DJ deal.
What I can do is look at the results of the trades they've made on the hitting side, especially in pursuit of "fixture" type pieces - those that might not be "cornerstones", but that require a commitment that locks them in to something with a higher degree of permanence, whether by dollars, years, or historical performance, with the intention for them to own a position and/or spot in the lineup.
Gallo, Rizzo, Donaldson, Bader, and Verdugo were all acquired in recent years to come in, specifically handle a starting role, and the best season any of them produced was Rizzo's 2.5 fWAR in 2022.
And that's not even counting guys like Odor, IKF, and Benintendi, etc who were traded for, given full-time PAs, and produced next to nothing. The best position player season Cashman has acquired in recent years is Trevino's 3.8 fWAR in 2022.
And I specifically said just trades, because I was shocked to look at Cashman's BR BP page and realize that, before they picked up Goldschmidt this offseason, the Yankees had only signed 5 free agent hitters of any significance in the last decade:
1) DJ LeMahieu (2019)
2) Troy Tulowitzki (2019)
3) Neil Walker (2017)
4) Chris Carter (2017)
5) Matt Holliday (2016)
Again, I don't think I know what should have been done, but I do know that a number of position player stars have been traded for and/or been signed in free agency in this time period, and the Yankees have only made the move for one, with the Stanton trade 7 years ago. Elite teams and WS Champions have been built on the backs of star position player acquisitions in the same time period, and for whatever reason, the choices the Yankees have made in trades and signings with regards to position players have unanimously not yielded anything even resembling a bankable asset. Bad luck, bad timing, whatever it is - it just hasn't worked. Repeatedly.
I don't say all this to rail against the team, but instead out of a place of extreme frustration and in search of an explanation (and hopeful for a turnaround). They have just been so poor at fielding above average, reliable fixtures in the lineup, and yet they can still assemble teams that produce 90+ wins a season. As a fan it feels like missed opportunity after missed opportunity. Especially when they've got one of the greatest producers in the history of the game right in the middle of his prime.
Well, they did get that Soto guy.
I think Cashman has changed his approach to team building a few times over the years, and of course the CBAs keep changing too. It is extra hard to get the kind of cornerstone players you're talking about when you never pick in the top 15 picks, so NY has poured a ton of effort and presumably resources into signing big name 13 year olds from the Caribbean in recent years, starting with Dominguez.
I started the below thread here about three years ago, it's interesting to note that while Cashman has traded countless prospects since then, he has held onto almost all of these guys. This is how he is trying to address what you're talking about, I think.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-young-and-the-pinstriped.36213/
Also along those lines, this piece was just posted on mlb.com tonight, with some exciting George Lombard Jr. mentions inside.
https://www.mlb.com/news/front-office-executives-poll-for-top-prospects-2025
It is wild to see him on this list (from that link):
=======================================================
Who is the best Minor League prospect you’ve ever seen?
Bryce Harper, OF: 15.0%
Mike Trout, OF: 7.5%
Alex Rodriguez, SS: 5.0%
Bobby Witt Jr., SS: 5.0%
Dylan Bundy, RHP: 5.0%
Elly De La Cruz, SS: 5.0%
Manny Machado, SS: 5.0%
Also received votes: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF; Adrian Beltré, 3B; Byron Buxton, OF; Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF/SS; Junior Caminero, SS/3B; Dylan Cease, RHP; Jackson Chourio, OF; Caden Dana, RHP; Cliff Floyd, OF; Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B; Félix Hernández, RHP; Clayton Kershaw, LHP; Tim Lincecum, RHP; Francisco Lindor, SS; George Lombard Jr, SS; Buster Posey, C; Hanley Ramirez, SS; Manny Ramirez, OF; Julio Rodríguez, OF; Paul Skenes, RHP; Spencer Strider, RHP
Maybe this is the same thing you are saying from a different slant but to me NY's big issue in recent years hasn't been acquiring talent, it's been deploying it in the best way.
Way too often guys come up to play a position they almost never played in the minors, that's just sloppy by the organization IMO. Oswald Peraza is out of options now and we still have so little idea how good he actually is, some of that is his injuries but he should have 500 more ABs for NY by now.
Way too often guys come up to play a position they almost never played in the minors, that's just sloppy by the organization IMO. Oswald Peraza is out of options now and we still have so little idea how good he actually is, some of that is his injuries but he should have 500 more ABs for NY by now.
Huh. I think that's weird. It's not like there wasn't competition for him on the FA market. Soto would have been a big signing too, but it didn't work out. There are no guarantees.
I will say, I don't think MLB teams have special powers that informed observers don't have, billion dollar organization or not. They watch the games and look at the stats and the underlying metrics. They have direct physical access to the players and I'm sure they go deeper into specialized info, but now you're talking diminishing marginal returns. Maybe that extra edge of having proprietary stats and scouting gets them a 5-10% advantage over someone that is great at watching games on TV and monitoring Statcast and Fangraphs in terms of predictive ability, but it's not going to be a transformative advantage.
The games, stats, and underlying metrics for DJ coming out of 2020 were very good over the prior 2 seasons and mostly trending better. He did have a BABIP increase in 2020, but it was over a tiny sample where his K rate also decreased and his BB rate increased, so his rate indicators were improving over a strong 2019 and his contact quality was very similar.
My point is basically that if we can't come up with any significant negative reactions to the second DJ deal (beyond his being 31, which is the only reason why his market wasn't much stronger), even retrospectively, then we're just in complete hindsight results-over-process land. I think to critically evaluate moves we DO need to be able to point to process areas where they should have done better.
I know you were making a larger point about the Yankees acquiring role players rather than impact players, which I'm sure is probably true in part and don't want to debate because I think it's pretty complicated and very hard to get a baseline compared to other teams. I'm all for more impact players.
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I've oscillated on this one since you posted it because I nodded my head so damn hard. What I would forgive of Cashman is that in the confusion of the pursuit of a fixture, they thought they had that in Gleyber, Luke Voit, Hicks (he was extended), Sanchez, Didi, Bird for a minute...and a few others. So, I can KIND OF understand the lack of of pursuit of premium free agent offense in favor of pitching where we had nothing close to the internal names that should have been more productive highly touted players. Now, this doesn't forgive the yankees for assessing these players as anything other than average players whose star shone too bright too early in their careers but trying to kind of track how we got here.
I also will maintain that the launch angle revolution, modified baseballs, and COVID shortened season totally fucked with the Yankees assessment of players. Another thing that other teams seemed to recover from better than us. Except maybe Boston and the Mets who kept thinking they were good enough to go for it until they finally realized they had to rebuild.
I have been on this board saying I want a new GM for awhile, and I still do, but I can see the argument for why we haven't gone out and signed or really traded for top offensive players that became fixtures. And I have no godamn clue why none of our offensive trades work out except for maybe the top offensive player in baseball now (Soto) and top offensive baseball player in 2017 (Stanton).
One more thing. I think that roster flexibility is part of the problem and maybe Hal gets some blame for whatever is going on between him and Cash when they assess payroll thresholds. They have spent the money, but they've always spent it in a way that consolidated their financial resources into just a few players and the depth of this team has been dogshit (Knicks and Rangers say hello too). Cashman hasn't been able to spread around the money until now and now when you look, there isn't anyone really worth spending on from an offensive perspective.
Went back to check what the reaction here was at the time when DJ is a FA and stumbled on this post from me:
This is the thread: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2020-2021-yankees-offseason-discussion.31726/
Chances are good that path would not have worked out well either (Lindor never hit DA and two of the other four have been duds), but I really do think NY should have moved Gleyber near his peak value. The Dodgers had a similar top prospect 2B in Lux who they just dealt with two years left on his deal, it's not just what you get back but the opportunity cost of opening that spot.
I totally agree with this all, and the bold actually summarizes my frustration much more succinctly than I've been able to express. I completely understand how we got here - it's a series of informed decisions based on proprietary information, that at the micro level are entirely justifiable and sensible. Yet when you pull back to the macro view, they were all incorrect from the standpoint of passing on available marquis players in trade and free agency because they thought they had a better value foundational piece already in place. They keep making these bets and losing, and that's the frustrating part to me. Quite simply, the organization should not be this poor at positional player evaluations. As a Yankee fan who grew up with George's mania and still hears the current leadership base so much of their desired image on his pomp, circumstance, and what it means to "be a Yankee", it is difficult for me to believe this degree of ineptitude in finding foundational players matches the expectations I've been sold.
Anyway, I feel like there's a solid chance a young piece or two finally ascends to join Judge as a fixture this season, and I hope they do something fun/creative to close out the offseason.
So when will we see a lefty RP? Tim Hill is still out there and while not amazing, I like him well enough. Are the Yankees waiting to see what happens with Tanner Scott?
Supposedly the whole relief market is waiting on Scott, a lot of talent still out there. I think NY wants to add to the pen still but also they are in OK shape as is (even with no lefty) and their priorities are still presumably moving Stroman and getting a 3B/2B.
Yeah, that seems a bit more likely to me than the Yankees wanting to pay Scott with more important needs looming.
I think (all of this is just educated guesses obv) is that Hill is separate from them potentially adding a higher profile reliever. Meaning they’ll add Hill and possibly someone else, but yeah, probably not the high bidder for Scott.
Hector Gomez, so I don't know how much we want to trust him, said today that the Yankees are one of the teams in on Carlos Estevez.
Has he really stop walking people, or was last year an anomaly? I believe the Yankees if they choose to make a bet like this.
Edit: But I think he'd be in a similar commitment category to Scott, no?
We haven't heard much about NY's upper budgetary constraints, but my guess is that they are waiting to see how the infield and Stroman situations resolve to see where the payroll is then, but they certainly still could spend on a reliever if they chose.
They've stayed away from spending money on relievers since the Chapman and Britton deals came off the books, though, and again they do have a lot of relievers already (although I could see them trading 1 or 2 in a deal for an infielder, to TEX for instance).
They've stayed away from spending money on relievers since the Chapman and Britton deals came off the books, though, and again they do have a lot of relievers already (although I could see them trading 1 or 2 in a deal for an infielder, to TEX for instance).
So who are people hoping for as an additional infielder?
Ha-Seong Kim seems like the best fit to me, assuming he is not so pricy since he will be out for at least part of 2025. That would give NY time to sort out their 2B depth (Cabrera, Peraza, DJ, Vivas) and see who is worth keeping and who might be worth getting more ABs for. Kim can play either 2B or 3B well, so it also gives you backup if Jazz doesn't look great at 3B to start the year.
Ha-Seong Kim seems like the best fit to me, assuming he is not so pricy since he will be out for at least part of 2025. That would give NY time to sort out their 2B depth (Cabrera, Peraza, DJ, Vivas) and see who is worth keeping and who might be worth getting more ABs for. Kim can play either 2B or 3B well, so it also gives you backup if Jazz doesn't look great at 3B to start the year.
Yeah, I would like Kim, just don't know when he is gonna be healthy.
I also like the idea of trying to get Josh Jung to fill the third base hole. Brendan Donovan would also be a nice piece to get if they can, not sure what his price would be.
If I were Cashman and that was the direction I wanted to go in, I would try to tempt TEX by offering them 3 current MLB relievers for whichever of Jung and Josh Smith they wanted to send. TEX is projected to have one of the worst pens and this would immediately make it a strength, one stop shopping for a guy who iprojects to be somewhat excess for them, for a team who wants to make a run again.
Then Cashman can fill up the bullpen again as he always does so magically. Profit!
Then Cashman can fill up the bullpen again as he always does so magically. Profit!
So let's work through this, if you have:
Clayton Beeter
Jonathan Loaisiga
Fernando Cruz
Luke Weaver
Devin Williams
JT Brubaker has no options so he will need to be the long guy, I think. If you add Hill or another lefty, you are up to seven (eight with two lefties), leaving 1 spot at most, and leaving out:
*Ian Hamilton
*Jake Cousins
*Zack Effross
Mark Leiter Jr
Yoendrys Gomez.
Asterisks means options left, so maybe offer Leiter, Gomez and their choice from the first three?
So many interesting FAs still out there if slots were freed up, also people are really high on Eric Reyzelman, NY's 5th rounder in 2022 from LSU (I always love that SEC pedigree for pitchers) who has been hurt but looked great after coming back last season. He is a righty 23 year old who was incredible at three levels through AA last year:
https://www.milb.com/player/eric-reyzelman-801432
https://www.milb.com/hudson-valley/news/reyz-of-hope-eric-reyzelman-forged-breakout-campaign-in-2024
Clayton Beeter
Jonathan Loaisiga
Fernando Cruz
Luke Weaver
Devin Williams
JT Brubaker has no options so he will need to be the long guy, I think. If you add Hill or another lefty, you are up to seven (eight with two lefties), leaving 1 spot at most, and leaving out:
*Ian Hamilton
*Jake Cousins
*Zack Effross
Mark Leiter Jr
Yoendrys Gomez.
Asterisks means options left, so maybe offer Leiter, Gomez and their choice from the first three?
So many interesting FAs still out there if slots were freed up, also people are really high on Eric Reyzelman, NY's 5th rounder in 2022 from LSU (I always love that SEC pedigree for pitchers) who has been hurt but looked great after coming back last season. He is a righty 23 year old who was incredible at three levels through AA last year:
https://www.milb.com/player/eric-reyzelman-801432
https://www.milb.com/hudson-valley/news/reyz-of-hope-eric-reyzelman-forged-breakout-campaign-in-2024
Heh, you should know me well enough by now to know I was getting to this.
Trading a few guys opens up a spot for Beeter too, who has huge potential. If NY doesn't have a spot for him, he will probably stay in the rotation in AAA but it would be nice to see him break camp as a multi-inning bullpen weapon.
A lot of people comparing the 2025 Yankees to the 2024 Yankees on paper, but no one seems to be factoring in that Clay Holmes blew a MLB-leading 13 saves last year, the most of any Yankee since Dave Righetti. NY now has Weaver and Williams at the back of the bullpen, that is a major upgrade.
If the Yankees add Paul DeJong, he of the the 30% k-rate, batting average that starts with a 1, and 3.4 total fWAR across the last FOUR full seasons, I will be closer to giving up than I've ever been as a Yankee fan.
Shame on Heyman for even bringing that idea up.
Shame on Heyman for even bringing that idea up.
DeJong? Rogers? FFS. I think those guys will be free agents for a little while. At this point they are what they are. Hard pass.