2024-25 Yankees Offseason

[BaseballJones]

If he's such a good pitcher, why doesn't he pitch good? Cruz' last two seasons:

2023 - 4.91 era, 1.21 whip
2024 - 4.86 era, 1.34 whip
TOT - 4.88 era, 1.27 whip

Yes the K numbers are terrific, but he lets a lot of guys on base and allows a lot of runs to score.

But I do see the appeal. His FIP numbers are way better than his actual ERA, and of course you love the strikeouts as a reliever.

 

[Snatch Catch]

If he's such a good pitcher, why doesn't he pitch good? Cruz' last two seasons:

2023 - 4.91 era, 1.21 whip
2024 - 4.86 era, 1.34 whip
TOT - 4.88 era, 1.27 whip

Yes the K numbers are terrific, but he lets a lot of guys on base and allows a lot of runs to score.

But I do see the appeal. His FIP numbers are way better than his actual ERA, and of course you love the strikeouts as a reliever.

The Yankees have a very good track record of taking guys on the margins with intriguing underlying metrics and exploiting them (the metrics) for success. You don't have to look very far to see examples in guys like Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver. In this case the underlying metrics are pretty ham-fisted, which is fun for us as fans because holy missing bats at the 99th percentile with his splitter, and I can see that leading to some hyperbole.

And also they were using a backup catcher who was trending downward and entering his final year of control as bait. Getting 4 years of control of a guy with Cruz's profile is part of the why is he "such a good pitcher" question you pose.

 

[simplicio]

Cruz should just throw his splitter 100% of the time.

View: https://twitter.com/YankeeSource/status/1870334795936350228

Is that something you can actually do? Even 2013 Koji was only throwing his split 48% of the time (and 42% fastballs). He peaked it at 60% in 2015.

I think the split still needs to be set up by something else and you can't just go full Kahnle with it.

 

[BaseballJones]

Is that something you can actually do? Even 2013 Koji was only throwing his split 48% of the time (and 42% fastballs). He peaked it at 60% in 2015.

I think the split still needs to be set up by something else and you can't just go full Kahnle with it.

I don't know how people don't hit Kahnle's change. I mean, obviously *I* couldn't hit it, but the best hitters in baseball can't hit it, even when they know it's coming. He threw it like 40 something straight times and guys couldn't do anything with it. If you know it's coming, how come you can't hit it? It's like Mariano throwing the cutter over and over and over again - you know it's coming but you keep breaking your bats trying to hit it.

 

[Snatch Catch]

I don't know how people don't hit Kahnle's change. I mean, obviously *I* couldn't hit it, but the best hitters in baseball can't hit it, even when they know it's coming. He threw it like 40 something straight times and guys couldn't do anything with it. If you know it's coming, how come you can't hit it? It's like Mariano throwing the cutter over and over and over again - you know it's coming but you keep breaking your bats trying to hit it.

I know you're asking this almost rhetorically, but I've thought about this question on and off a bunch since McCullers 24 straight curveballs to close out Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS. I found myself trending into the philosophical at the consternation of failure in the face of a strategy that seemed counter to everything we know about baseball, but in the end the answer for me has to be logical.

There's something about the break or shape of the pitch that places it outside the elemental processing ability of the standard ML hitter. Since we have decent pitch break measuring tools and no one I've seen has sounded the alarm about unique, alien pitch movement, I lean more towards the shape being the outlier. If the path of the ball - from how it's released to when it moves - is one that does not fit into the handful of templates baseball players have had imprinted on them for decades, then it would yield results like we see for this smattering of pitchers that can get results which defy a foundational tenet of the game.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't know how people don't hit Kahnle's change. I mean, obviously *I* couldn't hit it, but the best hitters in baseball can't hit it, even when they know it's coming. He threw it like 40 something straight times and guys couldn't do anything with it. If you know it's coming, how come you can't hit it? It's like Mariano throwing the cutter over and over and over again - you know it's coming but you keep breaking your bats trying to hit it.

I think the answer is to think of it more like a knuckleball, same as Cruz’s splitter.

I read way too much about this last night, and I think the plan for Cruz won’t be all splitters, but no more cutters. His fastball is mediocre but evidently his tunneling is exceptional so the FB/splitter look exactly the same coming out of his hand.

 

[jon abbey]

If he's such a good pitcher, why doesn't he pitch good? Cruz' last two seasons:

2023 - 4.91 era, 1.21 whip
2024 - 4.86 era, 1.34 whip
TOT - 4.88 era, 1.27 whip

Yes the K numbers are terrific, but he lets a lot of guys on base and allows a lot of runs to score.

But I do see the appeal. His FIP numbers are way better than his actual ERA, and of course you love the strikeouts as a reliever.

You could have asked the exact same question about Clay Holmes and NY fixed him immediately, midseason, without an offseason/spring training to work on things.

Clay Holmes :

w. Pittsburgh (2021): 5.4 BB/9, 9.4 K/9
w. Yankees (2021): 1.3 BB/9, 10.9 K/9

 

[Wingack]

View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1870495380288192869?s=46&t=-M7K07aV9oTvsCKHtZkfZQ


Goldy decision coming today?

 

[jon abbey]

Think Alex Jackson is going to make this team as backup catcher who starts against some lefties:

Alex Jackson vs LHP in AAA since 2023

.267/.353/.590 | .943 OPS
.397 wOBA | .399 xwOBA
51.2 HH% | 18.3 Barrel%
19.3 K% | 11.8 BB%

 

[RedOctober3829]

Yankees sign Paul Goldschmidt to a 1-year, $12.5 million deal per Jeff Passan.

View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1870529143752085748

 

[Wingack]

View: https://twitter.com/jackcurryyes/status/1870528332313608441?s=46&t=-M7K07aV9oTvsCKHtZkfZQ


Godly official. Love the price tag.

 

[jon abbey]

Nice, think I like that.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1870529951553949721?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

 

[radsoxfan]

Unfortunately a pretty good deal.

Not far removed from legit good seasons, a decent bet for at least 2 WAR with playing time.

Fangraphs crowdsourced 1/14, so an uncommon deal below their projection.

 

[Snatch Catch]

Nice, think I like that.

It comes up very short of my win consolidation ramblings, but that's a palatable price tag. Here's to hoping he's more Santana or Nelson Cruz than Donaldson.

 

[Brand Name]

I like Kiley a ton for his prospect stuff.

He knows far better than to use xStats to project a guy going forward. Those are exclusively descriptive. Come on.

 

[jon abbey]

It comes up very short of my win consolidation ramblings, but that's a palatable price tag. Here's to hoping he's more Santana or Nelson Cruz than Donaldson.

It really makes me think they plan to get Murakami next winter, as I’m sure you know there’s been smoke around that relationship for a while.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I like it for all the reasons discussed earlier. Cashman has been doing solid work since losing out on Soto.

 

[jon abbey]

I like it for all the reasons discussed earlier. Cashman has been doing solid work since losing out on Soto.

It's unbelievable actually, and he has been doing it without giving up any notable prospects.

I still think there is a move or two left, Tim Hill at a minimum.

If they can move Stroman in an Arenado deal, maaaaaybe that makes some sense, but that one is hard to see no matter how much I squint.

 

[jon abbey]

Just 13 players have won MVPs since 2017 (Ohtani 3 and Judge 2), 4 of them are now in the 2025 Yankee lineup (Stanton-2017, Bellinger-2019, Goldschmidt-2022, Judge-2022, 2024).

Also I would bet a lot that this is the first time an AL team has had three former NL MVPs in their lineup.

 

[jon abbey]

What's left?

1) Moving Stroman if they can.

2) Possibly a 2B or a 3B?

3) Probably a lefty reliever, possibly two.

4) Trading a righty reliever or two.

 

[Wingack]

What's left?

1) Moving Stroman if they can.

2) Possibly a 2B or a 3B?

3) Probably a lefty reliever, possibly two.

4) Trading a righty reliever or two.

I don't know what he would want, but I think a great fit would be Jurickson Profar. He is versatile played the outfield last year but can play at 2nd base. Switch hitter.

Most importantly he had .380 OBP and would be the leadoff hitter.

 

[BaseballJones]

Nice, think I like that.

Totally solid move by NY. Yet another one, in fact. Losing Soto really hurts but they've done a hell of a job otherwise.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't know what he would want, but I think a great fit would be Jurickson Profar. He is versatile played the outfield last year but can play at 2nd base. Switch hitter.

Most importantly he had .380 OBP and would be the leadoff hitter.

He hasn’t played almost any infield in years, he was pretty bad defensively in LF last year, and last I heard he wanted three years.

 

[jon abbey]

I know he is old, but I wonder if Goldschmidt would take a one year deal?

Wingack the first to mention Goldschmidt in this thread, on 12/5, even before Soto picked the Mets.

 

[Wingack]

He hasn’t played almost any infield in years, he was pretty bad defensively in LF last year, and last I heard he wanted three years.

Yeah that's tough. I just like the idea of this lineup.

2B. Profar (.380 OBP)
OF. Judge
OF. Bellinger
DH. Stanton
3B. Jazz
1B. Goldschmidt
C. Wells
OF. Dominguez
SS. Volpe

 

[Snatch Catch]

He hasn’t played almost any infield in years, he was pretty bad defensively in LF last year, and last I heard he wanted three years.

There's also a lot of variance in his production. That .380 OBP was well in excess of both his career number (.331), and his previous career high (.343).

Given that his walk rate was relatively standard (not even a career best), and his AVG was about 40 points higher than in recent seasons, it looks like the OBP bump might have something to do with a higher BABIP (.302) giving him a few extra hits in 2024, and probably shouldn't be expected going forward.

Unless you believe his sudden jump in hard hit percentage and barreling was a product of skill change...

 

[jon abbey]

Gleyber still out there hoping for Cashman to call.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I'd much rather bank on Peraza to show something offensively with 1000x better defense than sign someone like Profar. Or if they must have another veteran, bring back Berti for cheap and hope he stays healthy.

But mostly, if they aren't going to find someone who is a clear offensive upgrade and solid defensively, just give Peraza a chance.

Edit: sorry Gleyber, that isn't you either.

 

[jon abbey]

I wonder if there is some deal to be worked for Alec Bohm (who the Phillies are offering to everyone) for a combo of Stroman, Cabrera or Peraza and a prospect or two.

Bohm is still 28 and has two years of control left, although he has both offensive (collapsed at the end of last year) and defensive (was pretty lousy before last season) questions, but he did put up 3.0 bWAR last year.

 

[Wingack]

I'd much rather bank on Peraza to show something offensively with 1000x better defense than sign someone like Profar. Or if they must have another veteran, bring back Berti for cheap and hope he stays healthy.

But mostly, if they aren't going to find someone who is a clear offensive upgrade and solid defensively, just give Peraza a chance.

Edit: sorry Gleyber, that isn't you either.

After losing Soto, the Yankees still need an OBP presence on top of the lineup.

That aspect of Soto at the top of the lineup has yet to be replaced. Profar might be as close as they can get.

 

[HamiltonHeights]

I wonder if there is some deal to be worked for Alec Bohm (who the Phillies are offering to everyone) for a combo of Stroman, Cabrera or Peraza and a prospect or two.

Yeah, that's not happening. They're offering Bohm, but only for big pieces. They reportedly wanted one of Kirby/Gilbert from the Mariners and Mason Miller from the Athletics.

 

[Wingack]

Yeah, that's not happening. They're offering Bohm, but only for big pieces. They reportedly wanted one of Kirby/Gilbert from the Mariners and Mason Miller from the Athletics.

Yep. The A's laughed and hung up the phone fast.

 

[jon abbey]

Again I certainly don't agree with all the Fangraphs projections, but they are a fairly neutral perspective. Here are the position player FAs remaining ranked by their predicted WAR:

Bregman 4.1
Gleyber 3.0
Ha-Seong Kim 3.0
Alonso 2.9
Santander 2.7
Teoscar 2.5
Profar 2.2

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0 (click on the 'free agents' tab)

If Gleyber will take a one year prove it deal, that isn't the best option? Maybe there is a better option via trade, although again NY doesn't have a lot of trade capital that they can afford to move currently.

 

[EvilEmpire]

If Gleyber will take a one year prove it deal, that isn't the best option? Maybe there is a better option via trade, although again NY doesn't have a lot of trade capital that they can afford to move currently.

As much as I am frustrated by Gleyber's defense, I would complain less if it was only a one year deal. But given that he's going into is age 28 season, I have to think someone will offer him more.

But my preference is still a 3B and moving Jazz. Try to upgrade 2B and 3B defensively from last year without losing too much offense overall. Maybe a trade is the only way that happens. Dunno.

 

[jon abbey]

As much as I am frustrated by Gleyber's defense, I would complain less if it was only a one year deal. But given that he's going into is age 28 season, I have to think someone will offer him more.

Oh, they definitely will, but he really really wants to come back if at all possible. I don't think Cashman will do it though.

 

[Snatch Catch]

As much as I am frustrated by Gleyber's defense, I would complain less if it was only a one year deal. But given that he's going into is age 28 season, I have to think someone will offer him more.

But my preference is still a 3B and moving Jazz. Try to upgrade 2B and 3B defensively from last year without losing too much offense overall. Maybe a trade is the only way that happens. Dunno.

Looking at Jazz's 7 fWAR pace after he got traded to the Yankees, a good portion of it was driven by defense production - defensive production that does not look like he was generating at 2B over the last three years. He had one 60 game season that he generated noticeably defensive value, but every other season it is negligible.

Obviously this is a cold statistical argument, and defensive metrics are still wonky, but I wonder if there's anything to that. He didn't pass the eye test to me in that regard, so maybe it's about the small sample at 3B being too volatile, but that would be a pretty big difference in overall player production if it is legit.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Looking at Jazz's 7 fWAR pace after he got traded to the Yankees, a good portion of it was driven by defense production - defensive production that does not look like he was generating at 2B over the last three years. He had one 60 game season that he generated noticeably defensive value, but every other season it is negligible.

Obviously this is a cold statistical argument, and defensive metrics are still wonky, but I wonder if there's anything to that. He didn't pass the eye test to me in that regard, so maybe it's about the small sample at 3B being too volatile, but that would be a pretty big difference in overall player production if it is legit.

I don't know what the positional weighting is for fWAR, but Jazz was -2 DRS at 3B with the Yankees in less than a season, though he certainly showed flashes of being very good or even great. He's twitchy as hell and has an excellent arm. So we know he has potential there.

He hadn't played much 2B in a few years, but when he had a healthy amount of innings there he was on the plus side with DRS.

Maybe he's more valuable at third due to weighting? I don't know how that works, and obviously DRS isn't the end all be all either. But I'm certain he would be better at 2B than Gleyber was and I hope they can find someone for 3B better or at least more consistent than him.

But if Jazz is working hard this off-season to improve at 3B and getting some reps in, I'm happy enough. I just hate on the job training for a what should be a strong playoff team. We saw what bad defense looks like last season.

 

[jon abbey]

It will be interesting to keep an eye on Goldschmidt vs Carlos Santana's performance this year, Santana just signed an almost identical 1/12 deal with CLE. My guess is that Mr. Judge swung the pendulum there, which I'm fine with but let's see how it plays out.

 

[jon abbey]

If I am reading Cots' correctly, NY is around $293M before Loaisiga (rumored at $5M but not announced that I saw) and they were at $316M in 2024.

OK, so if we knew Cashman was allowed one more addition to the current team, and let's assume for this that they brought back Tim Hill and not Tommy Kahnle (sorry TK), and the only choices are one of these three:

Gleyber Torres (1/18 and some kind of promise to not QO? Not sure if that is allowed but maybe somehow. He can absolutely get more elsewhere but I have the feeling he would love a do-over for his walk year in NY and get even more next winter, and he was really good down the stretch.)
Tanner Scott (3/45)
Carlos Estevez (3/39)

I think that's hard. One of the relievers and give Peraza/Cabrera a chance? NYs bullpen is completely right-handed right now but I still might go Estevez.

You can't use any of the QO decline guys for this, I think NY has made it clear that Fried is the only QO signing for them this year. But if you'd rather a different FA non-QO guy over the three guys above, let's hear it.

 

[jon abbey]

Jazz made some spectacular plays at 3B and blew some routine ones, the latter almost certainly due to experience. For instance, IMO if it's October 2025 and not October 2024, he easily makes the scoop on Volpe's bounced throw in the midst of that disastrous WS inning. He is one of the best athletes I've ever seen in baseball so hopefully it is just reps and practice.

I think the 2B/3B situation as is is a bit tricky, it depends how comfortable they are moving guys between the two, specifically Chisholm. It makes sense with the current personnel if the infield is done with additions to use Cabrera/Peraza at 3B and Jazz at 2B, but then if neither of them are cutting in and you want to bring in someone mid-season, I think it is harder to fill 3B than 2B (but maybe that is not right? not sure).

I am not sure how I feel about Arenado (I stick to producing electroacoustic records and leave the moves to Cash and friends), but it does seem like he makes this more clear. If NY gets Arenado, he plays 3B, Jazz plays 2B, Cabrera/Peraza are on the bench if not moved.

Also if the Dodgers want to free up 3B for Arenado, we are presumably happy to take Max Muncy's remaining 1/12 off their hands.

 

[jon abbey]

Goldschmidt and Arenado both had 7.7 bWAR in 2022, first and third in the MVP voting. Goldschmidt is 3 1/2 years older and both are RHH but Arenado is much more of a pure pull hitter, not a good fit for YS.

I am starting to talk myself into it a little, though. In Cashman I Trust!

 

[jon abbey]

The thing with Arenado is he has a full no-trade (and already vetoed an agreed upon Astros deal) and STL really wants to move him, so he has all the leverage he wants to exercise. If he wants to force his way to NY and Cashman wants him, he could tell STL he would only approve a Yankee deal, so STL could figure that out or keep him.

 

[Snatch Catch]

It really makes me think they plan to get Murakami next winter, as I’m sure you know there’s been smoke around that relationship for a while.

Are you talking about his "west coast or maybe the Yankees" quote? I remember that, but haven't paid much attention since, and couldn't find anything further on a quick Google. It's there something more out there?

 

[jon abbey]

Are you talking about his "west coast or maybe the Yankees" quote? I remember that, but haven't paid much attention since, and couldn't find anything further on a quick Google. It's there something more out there?

Maybe just that, I honestly don’t pay so much attention to that kind of thing either.

 

[jon abbey]

“The 2025 Yankees will become the third team in MLB history to have four former MVPs in their lineup.

They will join the 1978 Reds (Bench/Morgan/Rose/Foster) and the 1982 Angels (Jackson/Lynn/Carew/Baylor).”

 

[jon abbey]

Funny, the lead piece in the prospect package going from STL to ARI in 2018 for Goldschmidt was…

our own Luke Weaver.

 

[jon abbey]

Things are quiet but it really feels like Judge is pushing for a Superfriends of 2022 behind the scenes. As a former journalist, I apologize for this level of reporting but this is the world we live in.

View: https://twitter.com/theyankscenter/status/1870746580338561490


2022 MLB bWAR positional player leaders:

Judge 10.5
Arenado 7.7
Goldschmidt 7.7

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-standard-batting.shtml

I think that or Gleyber on a one year deal but I am guessing Fried especially would prefer the ten time Gold Glove (in 12 seasons so far) 3B and let Jazz move his athleticism to 2B.

Arenado has evidently been working hard at Driveline this winter and has his swing speed back up to where it was before. I will look for the link later.

 

[jon abbey]

I think that Tweet is mistaken though, it is Arenado who controls the process, full no-trade and STL does not want to keep him/his contract.

If NY does want Arenado (this is not clear and he did not put NY on his initial six team list, but then they signed Goldschmidt), I am sure Judge and Goldschmidt are doing a full direct press to try to get him to force his way to the Yankees. Arenado's 1st choice is/was the Dodgers but they have no room/need for him with Muncy at 3B and Lux at 2B and Ohtani at DH.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

It's moderately weird to me that Judge is really good friends with Goldschmidt and Arenado, considering they've only played in the NL and not in places close to New York.