2024-25 Yankees Offseason
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
Cole opts out, NY can add one more year to his deal to bring him back, but I wonder if there is any chance they don't? Probably not.
View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1852747413124960542
View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1852747413124960542
Seems like he's doing the Yankees a favor, to me.
How many teams want to sign a 34 year old pitcher to something bigger than 4/$144? It can't be many.
How many teams want to sign a 34 year old pitcher to something bigger than 4/$144? It can't be many.
Worth remembering NY's experience with CC Sabathia, who was awesome after they signed him, had a similar mid-deal opt-out which NY had no choice but to pick up because the rest of their pitching situation at the time was weak, and who wasn't great after that. Sabathia was three years younger when he opted out also.
Yankees decline Rizzo's $17M option, pay $6M buyout
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42149286/anthony-rizzo-free-agent-yankees-decline-17m-option
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42149286/anthony-rizzo-free-agent-yankees-decline-17m-option
They never tried for Ohtani (last season), it’s hard to sign a DH with Stanton still around.
Yeah, if they don’t go for 5/$180M for Cole, what is his market?
Maybe more like 4/120-130? They may see that as close enough that it’s not worth it to lose him. Maybe they care about the strong chance he goes to the HoF as a yankee if he has ~3 more good-to-very-good years
Maybe more like 4/120-130? They may see that as close enough that it’s not worth it to lose him. Maybe they care about the strong chance he goes to the HoF as a yankee if he has ~3 more good-to-very-good years
Yes, the deadline is 5 PM ET on Monday, NY picks it up or Cole is a FA.
They’ll pick it up, unless maybe there is a FA SP they really have their eye on.
Rodon
Schmidt
Gil
Cortes
Stroman
If they pick up Cole’s option, they maybe deal Nestor or Stroman.
Don’t get me started, real world examples don’t convince the deniers.
That's very tempting for the Yankees to let him walk. That 5/180 is a lot of dough for a guy who missed the first half of the year with an arm injury and has a lot of mileage. And he's too old to cover first.
I'd be shocked if they just add the year.
Edit- just saw Bowden comment that they will add the extra year which I think will prove to be a mistake- then again it's Bowden.
I'd be shocked if they just add the year.
Edit- just saw Bowden comment that they will add the extra year which I think will prove to be a mistake- then again it's Bowden.
I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't, they would have a thin rotation without him, they have traded so many pitchers since mid-2022 that their prospect pitching depth is pretty thin also, and anyone they signed to replace him would also not be a sure thing.
Cole just pitched 12.2 innings in two WS games and allowed just one ER, plus he helps everyone else in the rotation on his non-pitching days. It's an easy decision in context, I think.
I was talking more optics, those were the two biggest names last year, and the potential of losing Soto and Cole this winter to follow that (after losing to the pair of them in the WS) feels like a non-starter for ownership.
Opt out + hubris, at least. Which is a given for anyone listening to Boras.
Eh, how different would they look replacing him with Burnes/Fried/Snell/etc.? The Yankees' floor is the WC, so I'd think they wouldn't lose much. Cole's record in the postseason is like any other top pitcher, hit and miss. The age thing, those 4+ years, is a huge deal.
But how much cheaper will those guys be? We'll see, I guess, but I don't think much per year and the deals could even be longer.
This way you lock in a guy you know is already comfortable in NY/the AL East, and you can move your attention to Soto and anything else needed. The more I think about it, the more I think it's an easy decision.
They would be no cheaper up to maybe age 36-37. Not sure they get 10-year deals? I dunno, if the Yankees think he's a rare guy who can be a power pitcher at 40+, then yeah, definitely keep him. And obviously they have his medicals. And if they're doing it for more sentimental reasons, I mean, I'm a Sox fan, I say go for it!
Cashman loves resigning players when he shouldn’t. There’s a 100% certainty we just extend him and 50% chance in a year or two he’s unreliable.
Extending Cole through his age 39 season isn’t ideal, but the Yankees have been burned by so many FA pitchers who can’t handle NY that I‘d rather see them roll the dice with Cole’s age-related decline. If they can resign Soto and find a couple of solid roleplayer types, I like this team’s chances for the next couple of years.
edit: Based on what Abbey just posted below, not even through his age 39 season. Yeah. Of course they’re going to do it.
edit: Based on what Abbey just posted below, not even through his age 39 season. Yeah. Of course they’re going to do it.
This is a false parallel, Corbin Burnes is 30 and Cole is 34. Do you honestly think Burnes is less of an injury/performance decline risk on a 7 year deal than Cole on a 5 year one?
Cole just turned 34 in September, he would have just turned 39 at the end of a 5 year deal.
Also worth noting that Cole was shaky in his first four starts this year after coming off the IL mid-season (if I remember right, they rushed him back a start or two prior than they would have truly preferred) with a 6.75 ERA but he was pretty great after that:
"He posted a 2.67 ERA in his remaining 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite all the way back to his usual level but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA."
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/gerrit-cole-triggers-opt-out-in-deal-with-yankees.html
"He posted a 2.67 ERA in his remaining 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite all the way back to his usual level but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA."
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/gerrit-cole-triggers-opt-out-in-deal-with-yankees.html
I can't believe people are arguing that the Yankees should let him walk.
Nestor probably needs Tommy John. Rodon is an absolute mess. Stroman wasn't trusted to throw a single pitch in the postseason.
That is a very rough rotation without Cole.
And Snell has said over and over that he wants to stay on the West Coast.
Nestor probably needs Tommy John. Rodon is an absolute mess. Stroman wasn't trusted to throw a single pitch in the postseason.
That is a very rough rotation without Cole.
And Snell has said over and over that he wants to stay on the West Coast.
Who are their 6-7 guys? Because wasn't Cortes a high leverage pitch away from a serious arm injury? A flexor strain doesn't automatically improve, even with rest, so you'd have to be mindful of SP depth.
I suspect they'd be active in FA for pitching with or without Cole, but as presently constituted no one in their top five has set it and forget it health and is as consistently elite as Cole. It'll be interesting to see if they are blank check and if signing Soto impacts their budget at all for other areas of need.
Actually they have more than I thought, they have:
Cody Poteet, who was very good this year when he wasn't injured.
JT Brubaker, who is coming back from arm surgery and who NY traded for last year to have for 2025. This is his last year of control, he was PIT's Opening Day starter in 2022.
Will Warren, who was awful this year, in AAA and MLB, but who was awesome in 2023 and a top 100 prospect some places.
Also some interesting prospects in AA and AAA, Clayton Beeter is maybe more of a 2-3 inning reliever but he has fantastic stuff and has been a SP up until last year.
I thought Brubaker was a good low-stakes bet that NYY made because he seemed to have leveled up and figured it out in the starts leading up to his injury. Poteet is also solid as a fill-in. And any or all of these guys could also ramp back up next year initially from the bullpen to replace some of the arms likely not coming back.
I haven’t gotten into anything like this because I think NY’s whole plan is very dependent on whether or not they get Soto back, but Christian Walker would be my thought here. He’ll be pricier than O’Hearn but both are lefties and O’Hearn needs to be platooned while Walker does not. NY can’t add lefty hitters who can’t hit lefties this winter, they need to address that.
I’m okay resigning him while acknowledging the risk. What I care most about for this team at the moment is roster flexibility and youth. Volpe and Wells need to build on 2024 next year and I’m transitioning my thoughts from this being “Judge’s window” to this being Jasson, Volpe, Soto, Schmidt, Gil, and Wells’ window.
My philosophy is no longer GFIN at all costs so if letting Cole go helps us build a more flexible roster where we aren’t focused on only mega contract mega superstars as our core, I’m okay with it.
And if we resign Gleyber I’m gonna flip the fuck out.
Walker is a righty and wouldn't take advantage of the short porch very often, but yeah splits aren't a problem with him. He's also better defensively than O'Hearn. I guess it comes down to price and years. I wouldn't want to lock on to either of them for too many years and maybe he gets 4 or 5? Or maybe not? I can't predict this market any more. If I ever really could.
Edit:
FWIW, Walker's spray chart is on this page. Also, it seems saying "better defensively than O'Hearn" is inadequate. He's great defensively.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-walker-572233?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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Small chance Soto situation gets resolved early, but it sure would be nice if it was.
OK, a quick positional runthrough:
C: NY is set with Wells and Trevino on the MLB roster. Carlos Narvaez is the 3rd catcher, Ben Rice has caught a lot in the minors, Rafael Flores plays 1B and C and had a breakout half season in AA, 15 HRs in 241 ABs.
1B: Assuming Rizzo isn't actually back (they declined his option but could inexplicably work out a cheaper deal), NY has the carcass of LeMahieu, Rice, Berti, Cabrera, TJ Rumfield will probably be added to the 40 man, and again Flores. They could add someone here, a FA or maybe trade for Josh Naylor's final arb year (around $12M).
2B: Assuming Gleyber isn't actually back, NY has Berti, Cabrera, Peraza, Caleb Durbin, Jorbit Vivas, or they could move Chisholm back here if they add a 3B.
SS: Volpe, Peraza behind him.
3B: Chisholm, unless they move him to 2B and add a 3B.
OF: Without Soto and Verdugo, NY has Judge in RF, Grisham in CF, Dominguez in LF, Pereira hopefully back from injury and Spencer Jones on the way up.
DH: Stanton.
Not gonna do pitching, but NY has plenty of starters once they bring back Cole today or tomorrow, and Cashman will rework the bullpen as he always does. Holmes and Kahnle and Tim Hill are all FAs, I think NY will at least try to bring back Hill.
C: NY is set with Wells and Trevino on the MLB roster. Carlos Narvaez is the 3rd catcher, Ben Rice has caught a lot in the minors, Rafael Flores plays 1B and C and had a breakout half season in AA, 15 HRs in 241 ABs.
1B: Assuming Rizzo isn't actually back (they declined his option but could inexplicably work out a cheaper deal), NY has the carcass of LeMahieu, Rice, Berti, Cabrera, TJ Rumfield will probably be added to the 40 man, and again Flores. They could add someone here, a FA or maybe trade for Josh Naylor's final arb year (around $12M).
2B: Assuming Gleyber isn't actually back, NY has Berti, Cabrera, Peraza, Caleb Durbin, Jorbit Vivas, or they could move Chisholm back here if they add a 3B.
SS: Volpe, Peraza behind him.
3B: Chisholm, unless they move him to 2B and add a 3B.
OF: Without Soto and Verdugo, NY has Judge in RF, Grisham in CF, Dominguez in LF, Pereira hopefully back from injury and Spencer Jones on the way up.
DH: Stanton.
Not gonna do pitching, but NY has plenty of starters once they bring back Cole today or tomorrow, and Cashman will rework the bullpen as he always does. Holmes and Kahnle and Tim Hill are all FAs, I think NY will at least try to bring back Hill.
I think NY is trying to work out some kind of deal with Cole to lower his AAV a bit, but either way the deadline is 5 PM so we'll know soon.
We'll also know whether Gleyber gets a QO, I would guess not unless they are certain he'll turn it down.
We'll also know whether Gleyber gets a QO, I would guess not unless they are certain he'll turn it down.
Yeah, to be clear, it's like he didn't opt out a few days ago.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1853553789808386101
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1853553789808386101