2024-25 Providence College Hoops: Kimpossible!

[CouchsideSteve]

Aaaaand we’re back. Last year was a season defined by unknowns for the Providence College Friars:

• We didn’t know if Kim English was truly ready to handle the rigors of a Big East job–I think he answered that with an emphatic ‘yes’
• We didn’t know that Devin Carter would ascend from a good college player to the Big East PoY, ultimately being drafted in the first round by the Sacramento Kings
• We didn’t know that lightly recruited Freshman Rich Barron was a knockdown shooter
• We didn’t know that George Mason transfer Josh Oduro would not only be a great player in the Big East, but would attract NBA interest
• Sadly, we also didn’t know that borderline All-American Bryce Hopkins would tear his ACL early in conference play, torpedoing the season

Despite the Hopkins injury, you could look back and think “woulda, coulda, shoulda.” And in fairness, Providence should have beat Kansas State in the Bahamas in mid-Nov; they shouldn’t have blown an 87% win probability in the last two minutes at Butler; and they shouldn’t have completely no-showed both games against a disappointing Villanova team. Win any of those four games and the Friars would have been dancing. But really, I think we should be happy for Devin Carter, be happy we have Kim English in Friartown, and just look forward to the new season.

This year’s Friars say goodbye to the aforementioned Oduro, who was an excellent big and I predict will find minutes in the NBA this season. Also departing are Ticket Gaines, who was a fantastically entertaining and passionate one-year grad transfer; Garway Dual, our most disappointing top-40 recruit since Makai Ashton-Langford, who left for Seton Hall; and Rafael Castro, who never found a role in our front court and will play at George Washington this season.

Previewing the Early Rotation

• Starters: (PG) Jayden Pierre, JR; (SG) Bensley Joseph, GR; (Wing) Wesley Cardet, SR; (Wing) Jabri Abdur-Rahim (GR); (Big) Christ Essandoko, rSO.
• Key Contributors: (PF) Bryce Hopkins, SR; (Wing) Justyn Fernandez, rSO; (SG) Corey Floyd, rJR; (Big) Oswin Erhumwunse, FR; (Big) Aton Bonke, SO (Big); (Wing) Rich Barron, SO.
• Other Interesting Freshman: (Wing/Big) Eli DeLaurier, rFR; (Wing) Ryan Mela, FR.
• Rounding Out the Roster: (SG) Luke Fonts, SR; (Wing) Kieran O’Haire, SR; (Wing); (SG) Nilivan Jotham Daniels, FR.

Key Questions Entering the Season

1. Is Bryce Back? If Bryce Hopkins comes back anywhere near 100% before conference play, this is a tournament team. Simple as that. He’s an absolute force as a slasher on offensive; a capable three-point shooter; and a near-elite rebounder. Sum it all up and you have arguably the best player in the conference, if/when healthy.
2. What About the Bigs? Kim has some interesting choices between the St. Joe’s transfer Essandoko, who brings both size and shooting to the position, and Oswin, a high-flying rim-runner who just might be the second most talented player on the roster after Hopkins as a true Freshman. Don’t count out Bonke, who stands 7’2” and is very raw, but has coaches raving about his work ethic.
3. Who Is the Lead Guard? I loved the development we saw from Pierre last season, but Bensley Joseph might be the better player with his tournament experience at Miami. If Bryce is healthy–obviously a good problem to have–the backcourt minutes could be tight. Floyd and Fernandez are both plus defenders, and I honestly think you can pencil in Cardet and Abdur-Rahim in for ~32min per game each. That's before you even answer whether a pair of small guards like Pierre and Joseph can play together without being a massive defensive liability.
4. Speaking of Which... Does the Defense Transfer? Counter to my pre-season prediction, Providence was excellent on D last year, ranking 18th in the country per KenPom. But a cynic would say that isn't replicable without Carter and Gaines, who were A+ perimeter players, covering for weakness elsewhere. Still, this team has a lot of length and athleticism, so maybe it’s [ahem] a mindset instilled by the coaches.
5. Are Cardet and JAR Good? Or Are They Really Good? Both have shouldered bigger roles in the past, so you can hope for greater efficiency with opponents focusing on Hopkins and the bigs in their schemes. I could see these guys breaking out. But it’s also possible they are simply quality role players. (Cardet is making a big leap in competition from Chicago St, though his pedigree is better than it sounds; JAR has excellent pedigree, but saw his shooting percentages drop in a bigger role for Georgia last season.)

So, What Do We Look Out For?
The Friars enter the season as KenPom’s 60th ranked team, which seems a bit harsh relative to the experience of Joseph, Pierre, Abdur-Rahim, and of course Hopkins. But on paper, there is no star other than Bryce who is a question mark. The Big East coaches poll has them at #6 in the Big East, but I’ve seen many projections with Providence at #3–really, it’s UConn, followed by arguably Xaiver and St. John's, and then everyone else.

Personally, I’m very excited about the season. I think this team will play with pace, have a very efficient shot profile, and compete their asses off for Kim English. My expectation is a #8/9 seed in the NCAA tournament.

***
Also, kudos to the city of Providence for its support of this team. Season tickets are sold out, and the AMP will be rockin’ all winter long. It’s truly one of the top environments in college basketball, and I encourage you to check out a game if you haven’t in a while. It’s a team and a coaching staff worthy of the support. Go Friars.

Edits: Cleaned up a roster omission, typos, etc.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Well, the season tips off tomorrow night at the AMP with a buy game against Central Connecticut. KenPom favors the Friars by 20. Some power conference team is bound to lose a buy game this week, so let's just hope it isn't us.

If you're interested in hearing straight from Coach English as things get underway, I highly recommend the latest episode of The Friar Podcast. It's worth listening to all year round, but they do a particularly good job teasing insight out from the coaches. Fascinating to hear Kim talk about the imperatives of good transition defense, but also explain how the emphasis on transition play may have cost last year's squad on the offensive rebounding end. He's really good at illuminating with little kernels like that, when prompted.

 

[Dan Murfman]

Nice comeback win. Down all 2nd half and hit 2 big 3s in the last 2 minutes to get the win.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Concerning to only beat Central Conn by 4, though somewhat less so seeing Central Conn upset St. Joe’s last night on the bounce. Bensley Joseph bailed out the Friars with 21 points. Some otherwise ugly shooting performance, with the rest of the squad shooting 3 of 22 from beyond the arc combined.

PC should be able to run it up on Stonehill tonight as 23pt favorites. A blowout will help the metrics.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

Welp, the Friars left for a Feast Week tournament in the Bahamas and we’re still awaiting their return. Getting swept by Oklahoma, Davidson and Indiana was almost enough to kill our NCAA at-large hopes before the calendar turned to December.

There was a glimmer of hope after soundly beating a pretty good BYU team at home last Wed. But the loss to URI—after leading by double-digits early—essentially TKO’ed the season. KenPom currently rates the Friars 80th in the country, projecting an 8-12 Big East record. Ugh.

So what ails these Friars?

• They’re not shooting particularly well (52.1% eFG rate)
• They’re turning it over a ton, but not turning the other team over
• As a result of the above, their tempo is a ghastly 351st in CBB—the exact opposite of how English wants to play

Bensley Joseph and Jayden Pierre are combining for a 20% turnover rate, which is flabbergasting for such an experienced backcourt duo. Christ and Oswin have been really shaky as a tandem of young bigs, turning it over more than the guards. The wing rotation is unresolved, and I think the best we can say about Wes Cardet and Jabari Abdur-Rahim is that they’re pretty good. All told, it’s a mess.

You hope things get better as Hopkins settles in. Freshman Ryan Mela also looks like he belongs, and he should earn more minutes as the season goes. But this transfer class that English and his staff were so quick to assemble hasn’t gelled—and even if they do, probably a little too late.

I’ll continue watching/posting, as I always do. But man, what a letdown.

 

[steveluck7]

And then URI goes and loses to Brown. That doesn’t help!

 

[Humphrey]

Is PC missing anyone else besides Hopkins? First time I've seen them play; they were beyond bad. Down 27 at the half; maxed out at 30. 22 turnovers (to MU's 5).

 

[Pepper03]

We just got tickets for the game next Saturday against SHU. We go every year my daughter is an alum. Didn't want to spend the $$ both teams are awful.
Very disappointing seasons from two teams that I thought had bright futures with their new coaches.

 

[mauf]

Friars up 11 on UConn early in the second half.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

I’ve been negligent about keeping up with this thread, so apologies for that. Frankly, we’ve been pretty lucky around these parts: If you throw out the COVID season, Providence had a live shot at an NCAA tournament bid entering March every season since 2012-13. That unfortunately isn’t the case this season, having lost 7 of 9 between Nov 27 and Jan 5.

So what went wrong?

• Hopkins isn’t healthy: After a really promising return for the BYU game, he’s suffered knee swelling. Information has been scarce, but his time as a Friar is potentially over—he’ll likely find a big NIL deal elsewhere as he attempts to get his career back on track next season.
• Christ has been hurt—and bad when healthy: I’m a little more comfortable saying this, now that they’re paid athletes… the lack of motor, poor defensive awareness, and turnovers have been maddening. (The silver lining is it has cleared the way for Oswin—more below.)
• The wing transfers have been disappointing: Cardet has picked it up of late and is shooting a stellar 40% from beyond the arc, but he turns it over a lot and can’t hit FTs (only 64% on 61 attempts). Abdur-Rahim is shooting only 27% from beyond the arc and is essentially out of the rotation—a shocking development.

The coaching staff was very quick/decisive on their transfer targets, but you could argue that only Bensley Joseph has played to expectation, with two *bad* misses. That, plus missing their best player in Hopkins, nets out as a team ranked 84th in KenPom. Statistically, the Friars do nothing well, but they do three things very poorly: (1) They turn it over a lot; (2) They *force* almost no turnovers; and (3) They don’t protect the rim, hardly blocking shots, despite so much investment in their rotation of bigs.

***

Alright, so what are we looking forward to?

• Freshman Ryan Mela is wildly exceeding expectation: A 3* recruit from nearby Natick, I thought he might grow into a role by his second or third year. But with the wing position so underwhelming, he’s earned his way into the starting lineup, playing 30+ minutes in three of the last four games. In the win against Butler, he managed 10 points and 15 (!) rebounds. The kid has uncommon hustle and instincts, a decent handle, and a good midrange game.
• Oswin is a keeper, too: A fellow Freshman who reclassified to join the team early this past fall, he’s an imposing inside presence and a tremendous athlete. The Friars will need to pony up with NIL to retain him for a second season.
• Pierre & Floyd running it back: Both have been important, stabilizing pieces in the transition from Cooley to English, and I hope they’ll return for their final years of eligibility next season. Quality role players.

Speaking of Coach English, I’m not panicking about his coaching or motivational abilities. The team has responded well as he’s shifted to playing more young guys. The effort in the loss to UConn was commendable and it has been extended/rewarded with back to back wins against Butler and Seton Hall. Needless to say, he just can’t blow an incoming transfer class like that again.

We’re rooting for the college and development at this point, not a March Madness run—which has sapped my enjoyment of the season even more than I anticipated.