2024-25 NBA Over/Under: who do you like?

JCizzle · Jul 27, 2024

I obviously hope to be wrong as a fan, but the Celtics seem like an under 58.5. They just had a long, deep playoff run. Half the starting lineup is playing in the Olympics, Al will be a year older, and KP won't be back until the ASG. I hope and expect to see a lot of rest throughout the year for the big 6.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 27, 2024

JCizzle said:
I obviously hope to be wrong as a fan, but the Celtics seem like an under 58.5. They just had a long, deep playoff run. Half the starting lineup is playing in the Olympics, Al will be a year older, and KP won't be back until the ASG. I hope and expect to see a lot of rest throughout the year for the big 6.

The other theory is that the Cs - particularly JT, JB, and Al - have a huge weight lifted off of them so they are going to play looser and more free and just dominate even without KP.

Interesting that according to this article, most of the $ (83%) is on the under. https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/nba-public-betting-odds-report-expert-predictions-today-bm16/

From that article:

As of Wednesday, July 24, seven teams have received more than 97% of bets placed to finish over their season win total:

Indiana Pacers (46.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
Miami Heat (44.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
New Orleans Pelicans (45.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
Orlando Magic (47.5 Wins, -105): 99% of bets placed
Sacramento Kings (46.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
San Antonio Spurs (35.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed

On the other hand, five teams have accumulated more than 80% of bets placed to finish under their season win total:

Brooklyn Nets (19.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
Denver Nuggets (52.5 Wins, -110): 99% of bets placed
Los Angeles Lakers (44.5 Wins, -110): 89% of bets placed
Washington Wizards (22.5 Wins, -125): 89% of bets placed
Boston Celtics (58.5 Wins, -130): 83% of bets placed

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 27, 2024

If I were a betting man (I’m not) seems like ATL over 35.5 would be one I’d do. Looks like they have something like 19 games against tanking teams (actual number depends on which teams are considered tanking) plus 6 versus CHI and SAS. I think they are too good to tank so they’ll comfortably over.

Also, it seems like combining Wesby all-NBA (if this can be done) are two bets that are pretty tightly correlated.

Auger34 · Jul 28, 2024

Favorite bet is over for Houston
2nd favorite is under for Philly

lovegtm · Jul 29, 2024

I really hate trying to be smarter than a market I don't have an edge in (and team over/unders is definitely that), but if Embiid really does have deterioration in his knee, I have to go under for Philly.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 29, 2024

benhogan said:
Like the Houston idea, 42.5 after 41 wins last season.

IME, Brooks, VanVleet immediately changed the temperature there. Another year of development for Smith, Sengun, Green, Thompson plus Steven Adams will add more muscle/toughness. Nobody will want to play this group on a Tuesday night in January

Man the West is going to beat up each other next season (good for BOS). No one's going to want to play SAS on a Tuesday in January nor probably SAC (etc.).

To the extent one pencils in OKC / MIN / DEN for the top 3 spots, you could probably make a case for any of DAL / PHO / GSW / LAL / SAC / HOU / MEM for 4-6, and maybe even SAS (if Wemby really breaks out) or LAC (if KL and Harden are healthy all year).

You could also probably make the case that any of those teams to end up in the lottery too.

HomeRunBaker · Jul 30, 2024

I’ll dig into these in the coming weeks after I’ve done my full prep for the season. My initial reaction is that Under 35.5 for Atlanta may look like free money if they gut this team as I expect them to do.

Moving Dejounte for Dyson Daniels and a couple 1st round picks indicate the direction they are going. Capela is an expiring who split the 5 with the undersized Okongwu last year and will surely be dealt by the deadline. Between the move for Daniels and spending the 15th pick last year on Kobe Buflin it’s clear that Trae will have his home on the market sooner rather than later too.

This will be Jalen Johnson and Risacher’s team to build around…..and that’s a lottery team once the full roster dump is completed by the deadline if not this summer.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 30, 2024

benhogan said:
A strong 2025 Draft should create several tankers. Atlanta isn't a bad guess, at 35.5 they squarely live in purgatory

I don't believe ATL has their own 2025 FRP - went to SAS in Murray trade I believe? https://www.peachtreehoops.com/free-agency/24168328/atlanta-hawks-roster-salaries-cap-space-draft-picks-latest-news-notes-nba

I also don't think Trae is going anywhere mid-season. Most contenders won't be able to trade for him (cap + 2nd apron) or won't want him and since TL doesn't control its draft for the next 3 years (if the above link is correct), it makes no sense to dump him.

HomeRunBaker · Jul 30, 2024

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
I don't believe ATL has their own 2025 FRP - went to SAS in Murray trade I believe? https://www.peachtreehoops.com/free-agency/24168328/atlanta-hawks-roster-salaries-cap-space-draft-picks-latest-news-notes-nba

I also don't think Trae is going anywhere mid-season. Most contenders won't be able to trade for him (cap + 2nd apron) or won't want him and since TL doesn't control its draft for the next 3 years (if the above link is correct), it makes no sense to dump him.

I think Trae could be gone in August. The Hawks invested the 15th pick two years ago in a point guard and now have moved Dejounte for another one in the 21-yr old Daniels who made a mini-leap in his 20-yr old season as a key rotation piece for the Pelicans. The path seems pretty clear it’s just a matter of when it occurs. Either way, the lineup will either be all kids in their young 20’s or an extremely flawed and goofy mix of the young guys and a couple veterans who know they aren’t here for long.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 30, 2024

HomeRunBaker said:
I think Trae could be gone in August. The Hawks invested the 15th pick two years ago in a point guard and now have moved Dejounte for another one in the 21-yr old Daniels who made a mini-leap in his 20-yr old season as a key rotation piece for the Pelicans. The path seems pretty clear it’s just a matter of when it occurs. Either way, the lineup will either be all kids in their young 20’s or an extremely flawed and goofy mix of the young guys and a couple veterans who know they aren’t here for long.

Not going to make a bet or anything but I would be shocked if Trae was gone in August. First of all, the number of teams that could even use Trae Young are less than the fingers we have on one hand and my guess is that while SAS still has ATL's pick, ATL isn't going to make the Murray trade worse by willingly getting worse this year. (The ideal situation would have been to trade Young to SAS to get its picks back but from all reports, SAS has no interest in that and they signed Chris Paul so they don't need Young.) As Lowe has mentioned on his podcast, it's hard to even come up with a Young trade that makes sense.

benhogan said:
They've slowly worsened over the last few seasons. Some of the rule changes have hurt Trae's foul grifting, which has made him less effective. A 36-win team that lost 2 of their top 3 in mpg (Murray/Bey). Losing Bey is probably addition by subtraction, but Murray was one of their better players.

If Risacher shows anything they could quickly start a rebuild by moving Trae? Capela? and try to gather picks. They have the Lakers 2025 pick that has a chance at being attractive if either AD or Bron go down.

Besides the Celtics, Buck Heat, Philly being better than ATL suddenly there are a bunch of young EC teams (CAVs, Knicks, Orlando, Pacers) that are much better than the Hawks. They've been passed by.

The owners kid orchestrated the Murray trade and now they owe the Spurs their 2025 & 2027 unprotected and a 2026 swap. The Spurs hit bingo.

Yes ATL is kind of in purgatory but it's an interesting purgatory as tanking doesn't do them any good while they don't control their picks. But although I agree that CLE, NYK, ORL, and IND have passed ATL, as I mentioned above, ATL plays something like 21 games against teams that are tanking (if you include CHI on that list) and that's not even including SAS, who I presume will be incentivized to beat ATL.

There are a lot of teams in the East that have gotten worse than ATL. And IIRC, Murray and Young didn't play great on the floor together so getting rid of Murray and playing Hunter or Daniels or Risacher - all of whom can cover for Young defensively better than Murray - may be addition by subtraction at in the end probably won't hurt them so long as Young is healthy.

If they could trade Young for a couple of good picks they might do it but who's giving up good picks for Young? Particularly while has three years left at $43M, $46M, and $49M (last year is a player's option)?

The other thing that comes to mind that was mentioned in another thread - the new salary floor rules are going to make it super difficult to make trades during the season.

the moops · Jul 30, 2024

HomeRunBaker said:
I’ll dig into these in the coming weeks after I’ve done my full prep for the season. My initial reaction is that Under 35.5 for Atlanta may look like free money if they gut this team as I expect them to do.

Moving Dejounte for Dyson Daniels and a couple 1st round picks indicate the direction they are going. Capela is an expiring who split the 5 with the undersized Okongwu last year and will surely be dealt by the deadline. Between the move for Daniels and spending the 15th pick last year on Kobe Buflin it’s clear that Trae will have his home on the market sooner rather than later too.

This will be Jalen Johnson and Risacher’s team to build around…..and that’s a lottery team once the full roster dump is completed by the deadline if not this summer.

Atlanta does not control their pick for the next 3 years. They owe San Antonio unprotected picks in 2025 and 2027, and owe a swap with them in 2026. They really can't tank because it makes no sense.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 30, 2024

benhogan said:
Yea, moving salary during the season sounds next to impossible with Floor Rules, so $43M would have to be done by pre-season.

The ~21 games versus crap (the bottom of the EC is awful) is a good point. While ATL is not motivated to lose, management may just want to see Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Okongwu, Hunter, Risachler, Daniels get shots instead of Trae, Bogdon, Capela.

Bogdan could help SAS, maybe he's the guy that can get that 2025 1st back? or a first from somebody else?

I'm pretty sure HRB recognized that SAS owns the Hawks draft stock, it was already noted above.

The Hawks losing a lot may be due to young player development & not much in the way of quality veterans.

For all of the reasons you mention - plus a potential windfall if Trae is out for a substantial amount of time - there is no way that SAS is trading ATL's 2025 first for Bogie. I mean SAS just traded the #8 pick in this year's draft. If they really wanted to win now, I doubt they'd do that. Plus, does Bogie really offer much more than Harrison Barnes is going to?

Trae, Bogie, Jalen Johnson, Okongwu, Capela, Hunter, and Daniels is a good enough core to beat the tanking teams but other than Jalen Johnson, none of them is going to get decent assets at this point. But if Risacher becomes a legit starter, Jalen Johnson pops, Hunter does more now that he's going to get more touches, and the long, switchy wings can make up for Trae's defense, ATL could be an interesting team by the end of the year assuming Trae is in there orchestrating the offense. For all of his warts, Trae is still a superlative offensive player.

cheech13 · Jul 30, 2024

It was heavily implied throughout the summer reporting that Atlanta was open to moving Trae, got no offers, and pivoted to the Dejounte trade. He probably stays there until at least the All-Star break.

HomeRunBaker · Jul 30, 2024

the moops said:
Atlanta does not control their pick for the next 3 years. They owe San Antonio unprotected picks in 2025 and 2027, and owe a swap with them in 2026. They really can't tank because it makes no sense.

They already began by moving Dejounte for a 20-yr old. They don’t have to tank to stay below 35, even well below it. The full tank is added equity imo. Who has a GM needing to make a play with extra draft picks in their holster? This is a cast of misfits regardless.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 30, 2024

Not many teams have multiple tradable first round draft picks and a need for someone like Trae Young. Here's a list of draft assets by team: NBA Teams With The Most First And Second Round Picks From 2025 To 2031 - Fadeaway World .

#1=OKC. They aren't trading for Trae.
#2=SAS. Already discussed
#3=WAS. No interest.
#4=ORL. ORL might have a need but they are $9M under the cap so to get to $43M, they're going to have to include multiple players (Other than Issac and KCP, they're next most expensive player by cap is Cole Anthony at $12.9M. I don't know how the rookie salary rule affects any trades either). This is one of those trades that can't happen during the season because of the new salary floor rule.
#5=IND. No need
#6= BRK. Tanking
#7=UT. Not a deal that Danny does.
#8=NYK + CHA. Neither team has the need for Trae.
#10=PDX. Tanking.

You can go through the rest of the teams but it's hard to see one that would do a trade. MEM? No. DET? No. TOR? No. SAC? No. NOP? No. CHI? Maybe they'd do something swapping Levine for Trae but that could be positive for ATL. GSW? No.

The only teams even rumoured right now are MIA (and that would likely have to involve Herro so that might not be a downgrade either) and LAL (but LAL's interests seem low right now).

lovegtm · Jul 30, 2024

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Not many teams have multiple tradable first round draft picks and a need for someone like Trae Young. Here's a list of draft assets by team: NBA Teams With The Most First And Second Round Picks From 2025 To 2031 - Fadeaway World .

#1=OKC. They aren't trading for Trae.
#2=SAS. Already discussed
#3=WAS. No interest.
#4=ORL. ORL might have a need but they are $9M under the cap so to get to $43M, they're going to have to include multiple players (Other than Issac and KCP, they're next most expensive player by cap is Cole Anthony at $12.9M. I don't know how the rookie salary rule affects any trades either). This is one of those trades that can't happen during the season because of the new salary floor rule.
#5=IND. No need
#6= BRK. Tanking
#7=UT. Not a deal that Danny does.
#8=NYK + CHA. Neither team has the need for Trae.
#10=PDX. Tanking.

You can go through the rest of the teams but it's hard to see one that would do a trade. MEM? No. DET? No. TOR? No. SAC? No. NOP? No. CHI? Maybe they'd do something swapping Levine for Trae but that could be positive for ATL. GSW? No.

The only teams even rumoured right now are MIA (and that would likely have to involve Herro so that might not be a downgrade either) and LAL (but LAL's interests seem low right now).

LaVine or Herro could be a pretty big downgrade on Trae. I am not Mr. Young's number one fan, but he's a very good offensive player, which matters for regular season wins, and he's shown he can contribute heavily to regular season winning.

Does LaVine's body even work anymore?

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 30, 2024

lovegtm said:
LaVine or Herro could be a pretty big downgrade on Trae. I am not Mr. Young's number one fan, but he's a very good offensive player, which matters for regular season wins, and he's shown he can contribute heavily to regular season winning.

Does LaVine's body even work anymore?

Agree, that's why it's so hard for me to see ATL being able to trade Young this offseason and into next season.

Particularly since LaVine is signed for 3 more years at $43M, $46M, and $49M (player option) so ATL wouldn't be saving money in making this deal so I presume if they do make the trade, they'll have some indication that yes, Zach LaVine can still play basketball at a pretty good level.

PedroKsBambino · Jul 31, 2024

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Not many teams have multiple tradable first round draft picks and a need for someone like Trae Young. Here's a list of draft assets by team: NBA Teams With The Most First And Second Round Picks From 2025 To 2031 - Fadeaway World .

#1=OKC. They aren't trading for Trae.
#2=SAS. Already discussed
#3=WAS. No interest.
#4=ORL. ORL might have a need but they are $9M under the cap so to get to $43M, they're going to have to include multiple players (Other than Issac and KCP, they're next most expensive player by cap is Cole Anthony at $12.9M. I don't know how the rookie salary rule affects any trades either). This is one of those trades that can't happen during the season because of the new salary floor rule.
#5=IND. No need
#6= BRK. Tanking
#7=UT. Not a deal that Danny does.
#8=NYK + CHA. Neither team has the need for Trae.
#10=PDX. Tanking.

You can go through the rest of the teams but it's hard to see one that would do a trade. MEM? No. DET? No. TOR? No. SAC? No. NOP? No. CHI? Maybe they'd do something swapping Levine for Trae but that could be positive for ATL. GSW? No.

The only teams even rumoured right now are MIA (and that would likely have to involve Herro so that might not be a downgrade either) and LAL (but LAL's interests seem low right now).

Great market scan, thanks for pulling it together.

The one on the no list I might pause on is Detroit. They reportedly want to win more, as they have been miserable for so long, and while Cade and Trae do not naturally fit, maybe they try it just as a floor-raising move? Cade desparately needs more offense around him. They probably aren't in until after the Flagg draft, but they are the only one I could see even having a real internal discussion about it beyond Chicago/Miami as you mentioned, and that Lakers are conceivable by trade deadline but not near-term

Danny might buy as a distressed asset if the price were zero or subsidized---kind of like he did John Collins. Maybe. But again, probably not until after the Flagg draft.

the moops · Jul 31, 2024

I still have opposite thoughts on Atlanta. I think they easily go over the 35.5. the Trae/Dejounte backcourt simply didn't work, for whatever reason.

With no incentive to tank, I just can't se them throwing up their hands and not competing, especially when there is no robust market for Trae.

Trae/Bogdanovic/Hunter/J Johnson/Okongwu is a good to very good starting 5. Bench of Capela, Nance, Daniels, and whoever else comes through is not good, but not the worst. I think they are a play in team again this year and better than Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Toronto

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 31, 2024

PedroKsBambino said:
Great market scan, thanks for pulling it together.

The one on the no list I might pause on is Detroit. They reportedly want to win more, as they have been miserable for so long, and while Cade and Trae do not naturally fit, maybe they try it just as a floor-raising move? Cade desparately needs more offense around him. They probably aren't in until after the Flagg draft, but they are the only one I could see even having a real internal discussion about it beyond Chicago/Miami as you mentioned, and that Lakers are conceivable by trade deadline but not near-term

Danny might buy as a distressed asset if the price were zero or subsidized---kind of like he did John Collins. Maybe. But again, probably not until after the Flagg draft.

I was just talking about this season since the discussion came up whether ATL would be over or under the projected win total - i.e., would ATL tank.

DET just gave Cade a max rookie extension. I mean teams do dumb things all of the time but bringing in a ball dominant PG when DET is trying to make Cade the face of its franchise would be beyond dumb.

Also, it seems to me that the only way ATL gets DET to take on all of Trae's money is to add assets. Why would ATL use assets to get rid of Trae? By DARKO, Trae is still a positive value player and since ATL doesn't control its draft for the next three years, winning and losing doesn't really matter. So benching Trae (or limiting his playing time or coming up with a fake injury) seems better than attaching assets to get rid of him.

I guess there's a scenario where ATL has to get rid of Trae because he's causing problems but I'd guess that's a low probability event.

Of course I can say all of this because I'm not a betting man.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jul 31, 2024

the moops said:
I still have opposite thoughts on Atlanta. I think they easily go over the 35.5. the Trae/Dejounte backcourt simply didn't work, for whatever reason.

With no incentive to tank, I just can't se them throwing up their hands and not competing, especially when there is no robust market for Trae.

Trae/Bogdanovic/Hunter/J Johnson/Okongwu is a good to very good starting 5. Bench of Capela, Nance, Daniels, and whoever else comes through is not good, but not the worst. I think they are a play in team again this year and better than Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Toronto

Agree with you. And I think ATL is going to make every attempt to start Risacher or Daniels so Bogdanovic can be the scorer the bench unit needs.

the moops · Jul 31, 2024

benhogan said:
36 wins got them Play-In glory last season.

As WBCD has noted the bottom half of the EC stinks to high heaven, so ~21 wins is a nice head start.

BUT also agree with HRB that ATL has the For Sale sign out on Peachtree Street.

Pick or no pick, it's time for them to go all-in on their younger players. It's not a proper Philly Process tank but winning with youngsters won't be all that easy even against the Charlottes of the world.

But they don't really have any young players to go all in with. Maybe Risacher, but as a rookie they can bring him along slowly. I like Daniels and Bufkin, but those guys aren't anything special

wade boggs chicken dinner · Sunday at 10:40 PM

benhogan said:
Too bad we can't trade on Pelton's numbers. Crazy Town

A bunch of head-scratchers, here are a few:

Brooklyn Nets
Average wins: 36.9

NBA Skills Trainer Chris Brickley on Ben Simmons: "Ben is healthy, moving very well, he is better now than all his All-Star seasons. I've never co-signed a player that didn't prove it when the season started. Trust me on this one."

A healthy Ben puts BRK squarely over 19.5 wins (I think BRK has played at a 40-win pace when he's played over the last two seasons).

Ben playing well enough to derail BRK's "Sag for Flagg" would be fairly on-brand.

View: https://twitter.com/basketbllnews/status/1836567578464129318

Euclis20 · Sunday at 11:01 PM

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
NBA Skills Trainer Chris Brickley on Ben Simmons: "Ben is healthy, moving very well, he is better now than all his All-Star seasons. I've never co-signed a player that didn't prove it when the season started. Trust me on this one."

A healthy Ben puts BRK squarely over 19.5 wins (I think BRK has played at a 40-win pace when he's played over the last two seasons).

Ben playing well enough to derail BRK's "Sag for Flagg" would be fairly on-brand.

View: https://twitter.com/basketbllnews/status/1836567578464129318

Most of the time I find these Ben Simmons stories funny. Sure, this is the year he starts shooting 3's. Sure, this is the year he takes shit seriously and shows any improvement whatsoever. Sure, this is the year that he returns to his all-star ways. But sometimes it just makes me angry to the point where it's almost embarrassing.

View: https://youtu.be/6uZYEYtj1UU?si=F2oMPtMJRGL-feHz

wade boggs chicken dinner · Sunday at 11:28 PM

Jeez - I didn’t even post Simmons’ jump shot videos.

@benhogan - I got to wonder whether Pelton bets on his predictions. I guess he probably can’t but his model definitely diverges from the conventional wisdom.

@Euclis20 - don’t get angry. Ben’s not worth it. But $ can be a strong motivator so maybe Ben has the contract year to end all contract years! I’d laugh if he did.

Bosoxian · Sunday at 11:32 PM

Euclis20 said:
Most of the time I find these Ben Simmons stories funny. Sure, this is the year he starts shooting 3's. Sure, this is the year he takes shit seriously and shows any improvement whatsoever. Sure, this is the year that he returns to his all-star ways. But sometimes it just makes me angry to the point where it's almost embarrassing.

View: https://youtu.be/6uZYEYtj1UU?si=F2oMPtMJRGL-feHz

You need to add one more—. Sure, this is the final year of his contract.

HomeRunBaker · Monday at 9:32 AM

benhogan said:
Ha. It does look like Ben & Skillz Trainer Guy took a well-earned timeout to enjoy TikTok.
The basketball on the lap with baggy sweats tells me the work is being done! Trust me

Pelton win totals seem weirdly off, he did warn us by saying he was 9-21 last season and altered the model.

@HomeRunBaker used to come in with some clever preseason picks on teams running under the radar. BUT believe he is throwing his Over/Under gems on the Discord channel.

I’ll post them here once I get to them. I’ve got a couple strong opinions this year which is playing out differently than previous years around this time when I’ve had only one scream out at me (Grizz last year) or like 10 which is way too many. Right now I’m looking at 3-4 real good ones which is the sweet spot I prefer.

PedroKsBambino · Monday at 2:40 PM

I don't think Celtics under 58.5 is crazy---they are going to be missing KP for a long time, resting Al, and one has to think being a beat less aggressive on playing the other guys this year. Plus, the east---especially top of the east---is likely better this year.

What I think that might underplay is that their confidence and clarity on how to really exploit offensive advantages AND put on the screws in the last 4 minutes also makes them a team that might be able to win a lot of "12 serious minutes" games even with some starters resting.

I'd take the over, but it's not a no-brainer

HomeRunBaker · Monday at 5:54 PM

benhogan said:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qvELB_oLFw

Nate Duncan likes the Celtics UNDER 58.5 (still likes them as the #1 team in the EC)

Leroux going OVER

I def like the Under just unsure as to what degree. There will be at least 5-6 games before Xmas where our big rotation is Kornet/Tillman/Queta and we were extremely fortunate on the injury front last season that will probably normalize.

HomeRunBaker · Monday at 6:13 PM

benhogan said:
Starting four TOP40 players (Tatum, Brown, White, Jrue), they will be more than fine with Tillman being the 5th offensive option. X is an excellent defensive 5 and will handle Williams, Claxton, Zubac, Bam, Edey

The 2nd night of BTBs before Jan 1 will be
@Charlotte
@Nets
Clippers
Heat
Griz

Color me unconcerned.

I’m sure we’ll be fine I just don’t think we are a threat to match last years 64. If the upside is 60 and the reasonable downside in play then I’d rate <58.5 the more likely of the two. Your scenario above also accounts for perfect non-Kristaps health which I wouldn’t expect again this year. Tillman also showed to be a terrible fit last year so I’m not yet ready to assume he’ll be a plus player this year.

the moops · Monday at 10:34 PM

HomeRunBaker said:
I def like the Under just unsure as to what degree. There will be at least 5-6 games before Xmas where our big rotation is Kornet/Tillman/Queta and we were extremely fortunate on the injury front last season that will probably normalize.

Boston was 6-0 last year in games where Horford and Porzingis both sat

HomeRunBaker · Monday at 11:07 PM

the moops said:
Boston was 6-0 last year in games where Horford and Porzingis both sat

I’m not too concerned with 6 game samples and this is only part of the reason I don’t expect them to reach 59. I’ll probably weigh the injury reversion and most of the key pieces not having an offseason more heavily. When I finish all my numbers I don’t expect this to be one of my top top plays but to me there is only one side to play on this when all factors are considered. 56-26 sounds about right to me.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Tuesday at 10:09 AM

benhogan said:
Starting four TOP40 players (Tatum, Brown, White, Jrue), they will be more than fine with Tillman being the 5th offensive option. X is an excellent defensive 5 and will handle Williams, Claxton, Zubac, Bam, Edey

The 2nd night of BTBs before Jan 1 will be
@Charlotte
@Nets
Clippers
Heat
Griz

Color me unconcerned.

With regard to the starting 4, yes they will be fine. The Thinking Basketball guy did a two-part series on the Top Teams from the "Pace and Space Era" (I've not gotten to their rankings yet; the two shows are almost 3 hours long) but they mentioned that the 3 Js and White were 56-15 when they played together, or a 61-win pace. Assuming decent health from those 4, they will be way over Pelton's 52 wins.

2024-25 NBA Over/Under: who do you like?

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