2024-2025 MiLB Offseason
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
I don't think it's a bad prediction...but I don't think it's very likely to happen, though, just based on sheer prospect volatility.
It is the very obvious prediction based on their current rankings, though.
1) Roman - Graduate
2) Mayer - Graduate
3) KCamp - Graduate
4) Arias
5) Yoely
6) Bleis
7) Perales
With Perales hurt, it's likely that it will be one of those 4 through 6 guys.
But would I be shocked if someone like Mikey rakes all year & jumps up from #12? Or some pitcher from the most recent draft class like Tolle or Cason does something ridiculous? Naw.
So Arias may be the favorite... but I would probably put the odds at like 1 in 5?
Maybe...
Arias 20%
Bleis 19%
Yoely 18%
One of the big 3 15%
A pitcher 13%
A different hitter 10%
Mikey 5%
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/redsox
I count myself fortunate to have lived to see that list of names. My only regret is that Remy didn’t live for me to hear him pronounce them.
^^^ I posted that before I watched it, but it was a pretty good summation of some of the current wisdom on pitcher injuries, including the theory that many injuries are caused, counterintuitively perhaps, by not enough work in the off season.
I was just looking at the SoxProspects MLFA page. Seems like we've gotten exactly one guy who turned out to be a guy in Minor League Free Agency each off season since after the 2020 season:
'20 - Refsnyder
'21 - Kelly
'22 - Booser
'23 - Fulmer?
Jury is still out on '23. If no one pops I guess you could argue Jamie Bats, but hopefully Fulmer has a good year this year & can fill that role. PENROD was an in-season MLFA but could also count.
Seby Zavala & Nate Eaton are the only 2 guys in that category so far for this off season, so would expect a fair # more fringy guys added in the coming months, especially hitters as the Worcester pitching staff seems pretty set for now.
Before that, the last one of note was Ryan Brasier after the '17 season.
Red Sox Minor League Free Agent & Independent League Signing History | SoxProspects.com
I was just looking at the SoxProspects MLFA page. Seems like we've gotten exactly one guy who turned out to be a guy in Minor League Free Agency each off season since after the 2020 season:
'20 - Refsnyder
'21 - Kelly
'22 - Booser
'23 - Fulmer?
Jury is still out on '23. If no one pops I guess you could argue Jamie Bats, but hopefully Fulmer has a good year this year & can fill that role. PENROD was an in-season MLFA but could also count.
Seby Zavala & Nate Eaton are the only 2 guys in that category so far for this off season, so would expect a fair # more fringy guys added in the coming months, especially hitters as the Worcester pitching staff seems pretty set for now.
Before that, the last one of note was Ryan Brasier after the '17 season.
Red Sox Minor League Free Agent & Independent League Signing History | SoxProspects.com
Both Mata's team and Narváez's team qualified for the playoffs, but apparently Mata's team is trying to extend his Visa and there's no guarantee he'll be able to play in the playoffs, & Narváez hasn't played since he was traded to the Red Sox.
SoxProspects News: Fall/Winter Roundup: Playoffs begin in Venezuela
Fun facts about the Alex Verdugo trade:
By either bWar (Verdugo 0.8, Fitts 0.6, Weissert 0.6), or fWar (Verdugo 0.6, Fitts 0.5, Weissert 0.5), the Red Sox received 0.4 more WAR from their return on the trade than they gave up.
The Yankees have 0 more years of control of Verdugo. The Red Sox have 6 more years of Fitts, 5 more years of Weissert, and the lottery ticket that is Nicholas Judice, who pitched 8.2 innings between the FCL & A-Ball this year.
By either bWar (Verdugo 0.8, Fitts 0.6, Weissert 0.6), or fWar (Verdugo 0.6, Fitts 0.5, Weissert 0.5), the Red Sox received 0.4 more WAR from their return on the trade than they gave up.
The Yankees have 0 more years of control of Verdugo. The Red Sox have 6 more years of Fitts, 5 more years of Weissert, and the lottery ticket that is Nicholas Judice, who pitched 8.2 innings between the FCL & A-Ball this year.
Not so fun facts about the Angels trade...
Luis Garcia was worth -0.6 bWAR (-0.1 fWAR) out of the Red Sox bullpen, while Ryan Zeferjahn was worth 0.5 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) out of the Angels bullpen. Niko Kavadas was worth -0.2 bWAR & fWAR, but that seems more like an lol Angels thing.
The Red Sox have 0 more years of control of Garcia. The Angels have 6 more years of control of Zef, 6 years of Niko, 6+ years of Matthew Lugo who they recently added to the 40-man roster, & the lottery ticket that is Yeferson Vargas, who had a 2.35 ERA for the Angels' A-Ball team in 30.2 IP after the trade, & is only 20.
Luis Garcia was worth -0.6 bWAR (-0.1 fWAR) out of the Red Sox bullpen, while Ryan Zeferjahn was worth 0.5 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) out of the Angels bullpen. Niko Kavadas was worth -0.2 bWAR & fWAR, but that seems more like an lol Angels thing.
The Red Sox have 0 more years of control of Garcia. The Angels have 6 more years of control of Zef, 6 years of Niko, 6+ years of Matthew Lugo who they recently added to the 40-man roster, & the lottery ticket that is Yeferson Vargas, who had a 2.35 ERA for the Angels' A-Ball team in 30.2 IP after the trade, & is only 20.
No...I absolutely did not mean to ever broach that subject again lol...but while we're here...
After 2 more seasons (this was from December '22), they have now received:
Wong: 1.3 fWAR (0.2 in '23, 1.1 in '24), cost $1.5m
Verdugo: 1.4 fWAR ('23), cost $6.3m
Fitts: 0.5 fWAR, cost $84k
Weissert: 0.5 fWAR, cost, $644k
Red Sox give up 3.6 fWAR and save $42m
Red Sox receive 8.6 fWAR, spend like $15m, & have more years...Wong (3), Weissert (5), Fitts (6), Judice (6)
I would have traded them to the Angels. It's curious that they seem to have missed on Ryan Fernandez & now Zeferjahn while trying to bring in other team's guys midseason. It probably has to do with Ryan Theory...
I liked the concept of the trade in terms of giving up "name" guys who didn't seem to have much actual substance & would require 40-man spots if they were going to stick around. The Angels are weird.
This was my end of season update on all the Rule 5 guys. The way I did the post makes it impossible to quote effectively so will just link:
Sox Rule 5 thread | Sons of Sam Horn
SoxProspects is looking for a staff writer & social media person if anyone is about that life.
Help Wanted: Staff Writer & Social Media Specialist | SoxProspects.com Forum
Semi-random thought based on the Gleyber Torres to Detroit on a one-year deal thing...do we really think MLB front offices aren't smart enough at this point to determine how good a hitter plays independent of the stadium they play in? There are all sorts of stats based on the actual contact made & the likelihood of different results based on the actual contact with the ball. These stats are widely used when coaching the Red Sox MiLB players among other places. There are not going to be many teams that are not smart enough to not factor in park effects & various luck factors when making free agency decisions.
If Gleyber puts up a nice xwOBA, smart teams are not going to care if he hit a few less homers because he played in a bigger ballpark.
If Gleyber puts up a nice xwOBA, smart teams are not going to care if he hit a few less homers because he played in a bigger ballpark.
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View: https://www.instagram.com/p/DD0fB8MS7np/?igsh=cHd6ZmhzdXFva3hs
Noah Davis got a milb deal
Pitching+ numbers on his Slider and Curve jump out to me immediately.
Noah Davis got a milb deal
Pitching+ numbers on his Slider and Curve jump out to me immediately.
Adding more detail (& Criswell):
1) Crochet
2) Houck
3) Bello
4) Buehler
5) Giolito
6) Crawford
7) (Sandoval)
8) Criswell
9) Priester
10) Fitts
11) Fulmer*
12) Winck
13) Dobbins
14) Whitlock
15) Penrod
16) Murphy
17) Drohan*
18) (Perales)
19) Sandlin*
20) Coffey*
21) Mata*
22) Early*
23) YORDANNY*
* = not on the 40
1) Crochet
2) Houck
3) Bello
4) Buehler
5) Giolito
6) Crawford
7) (Sandoval)
8) Criswell
9) Priester
10) Fitts
11) Fulmer*
12) Winck
13) Dobbins
14) Whitlock
15) Penrod
16) Murphy
17) Drohan*
18) (Perales)
19) Sandlin*
20) Coffey*
21) Mata*
22) Early*
23) YORDANNY*
* = not on the 40
Even better, the only people who fall off that list in 2026 are Giolito and Buehler. What Breslow has done with this organization's pitching in essentially 12 months is nothing short of astounding.
The bullpen should have WAY more optionable depth than in many years as well.
Sox Prospects 40-man shows these guys as having options:
Zach Kelly
Bernadino (this is a surprise to me, I wonder if this is accurate?)
Whitlock (same?)
Murphy
Crawford
Winck
Weissert
Slaten
Criswell
Priester
Guerrero
Fitts
Penrod
Dobbins
Shugart
And these guys not on the 40-man who are on non-roster invites and/or will probably start the year in AAA:
Austin Adams
Isiah Campbell
Michael Fulmer
Juan Mata
Wyatt Mills
Wyatt Olds
Jovani Moran
Noah Davis
The oldPawtucket Worcester Shuttle should be full of helpful arms this year.
Sox Prospects 40-man shows these guys as having options:
Zach Kelly
Bernadino (this is a surprise to me, I wonder if this is accurate?)
Whitlock (same?)
Murphy
Crawford
Winck
Weissert
Slaten
Criswell
Priester
Guerrero
Fitts
Penrod
Dobbins
Shugart
And these guys not on the 40-man who are on non-roster invites and/or will probably start the year in AAA:
Austin Adams
Isiah Campbell
Michael Fulmer
Juan Mata
Wyatt Mills
Wyatt Olds
Jovani Moran
Noah Davis
The old
I agree. It's weird because I would love him on the 2025 Red Sox, but I'm pretty sure I would hate him on any Red Sox team beyond that. Also, paying him to play second base would be stupid, so they need to have Devers on board with moving to DH, but I feel like the dude loves playing third base, so that would be kind of shitty (even if he isn't very good at it).
If you want to add a third baseman to try to improve the defense, I'd rather play Campbell there (and/or possibly Mayer later in the year) than give Bregman all that money for all those years (plus lose the draft pick and international money.)
Giving Bregman all that money and years to have him play second base would be completely nonsensical. A huge part of his value is his glove at third base.
He's a really good player but he doesn't really fit our roster right now.
Giving Bregman all that money and years to have him play second base would be completely nonsensical. A huge part of his value is his glove at third base.
He's a really good player but he doesn't really fit our roster right now.
I don't think KCamp would be a good 3B, but that's not really based on anything.
The Devers is a bad 3B & Bregman is a good 3B stuff is interesting. & while it's true... it's interesting trying to figure out how much it actually matters.
I like OAA better than DRS, so we'll use FRV for this, which is basically the translation of outs to runs.
Devers was a -5 last year & Bregman was +5 runs. So, if that's accurate, over the course of the season, having Bregman at 3B instead of Devers would have allowed the Red Sox to prevent 10 runs on the season.
The Red Sox allowed 747 runs last year, so with Bregman they allow 737. They scored 751 runs.
That would increase their pythag wins from 81.5 to 82.5. So that's not nothing, but it's also not like a big needle mover. Bregman is also 2.5 years older than Devers so one would generally expect his defense to fall off sooner, but there are of course arguments to the contrary.
The other piece is the offense. If we sign Bregman with the intention of replacing Yoshida by moving Devers to DH, the other piece is how many runs more do you score with Bregman over Yoshida?
Bregman had a .323 xwOBA & a 118 wRC+ last year, & Steamer projects him for 122 next year.
Yoshida, who is about 9 months older than Bregman, had a .324 xwOBA & a 115 wRC+, & Steamer projects him for a 117 next year.
Steamer projects Bregman to be worth 15.3 runs above average offensively in 664 PAs & Yoshida to be worth 8.4 in 520. While it is reasonable to project that Bregman may have more PAs in a full season than Yoshida, that's not particularly descriptive if Yoshida is complemented by a Refsnyder or someone. But rather than getting too into the weeds on that, let's just give Yoshida the same # of PAs as Bregman which would take him to 10.7 RAA.
So in the same # of PAs, Steamer projects Bregman to be worth 4.6 more runs. Let's round that to 5.
So in Bregman world, the Red Sox have now outscored their opponents 756 to 737, which is a pythag of 83.1.
So using this really rough mathmatical construct, Bregman at 3B & Devers at DH is worth about 1.6 wins more than Devers at 3B & Yoshida at DH.
Is a marginal increase of 1.6 wins worth $30m per year, their 2nd round pick & $500k of IFA $? I guess it's hard to say in a vacuum. Technically they could probably be able to save about $7m/year of that amount by subsidizing Yoshida.
I just realized if I use Steamer projections they only predict a 5.6 run difference on defense between Bregman & Devers for '25, so using that we are back to about 1 marginal win by adding Bregman, but either way.
Let's compare that to the catcher situation, though...Steamer projects Wong will be worth -4.4 runs on offense & -3.0 runs on defense in 369 PAs & Narváez for -4.2 & 3.7 in 194 PAs...
The oddest thing is if that's accurate, they could improve by 3 runs just by switching Narváez to Wong's PAs & Wong to Narváez's.
But for the sake of this exercise, let's just plan on replacing Wong & letting Narváez be the backup.
Yasmani Grandal has a Steamer projection of -1.8 offense & 5.3 defense in 240 PAs. If you give him Wong's 369 PAs, that would be a total of +5.4 runs, compared to Wong's -7.4 runs. That's a swing of 12.8 runs...rounding we will call it scoring 2 more runs & allowing 11 less.
So in Grandal over Wong world we're at 753 to 736, for a pythag of 82.8 wins.
So Bregman is worth 1.6 marginal wins & Grandal is worth 1.3 marginal wins.
Grandal is a free agent who signed a 1 year, $2.5m contract last off season. He would not require a long term commitment, or cause the Red Sox to lose a draft pick or IFA money.
I mean, of course they can do more than one thing... but I think the main thing this exercise illustrates is how much easier it is of a fit to upgrade at catcher than it is by adding Bregman.
Another guy who has been thrown out there is Sean Murphy, who Steamer projects at +1.5 & +10.6 in 420 PAs. If we give him all of Wong's PAs, & 51 of Narváez's it's a 19.7 run swing (83.8 pythag).
Murphy would obviously require some sort of trade compensation, but he has 4/$60m renaining on his contract with a team option for '29, & his AAV is only $12.2m. Not sure if that bumps up to $15m if he's traded. They keep changing the rules on that stuff, but either way.
We had the league leader in some random crap last year...
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874858387437203531
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874854543642800437
& 2 of the top 5 in this one.
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874215530263175295
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874858387437203531
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874854543642800437
& 2 of the top 5 in this one.
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1874215530263175295
Holy shit, Devers being on that list is astounding, but then I think about the season he had and what I saw of it, and I really don't feel like I should be THAT surprised.
Was just playing around with some Fangraphs stuff...mostly to see if there is any value in it...so I'll post it...
Here's the Primer on what the stats mean:
Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ Primer | Sabermetrics Library
Relievers:
Stuff+
Chapman 134
Hendriks 134**
Guerrero 119
Kelly 111
Slaten 109
Campbell 106*
Fulmer 105*
Whitlock 104
Wilson 104
Penrod 103
Winck 101
Weissert 100
Shugart 99
Murphy 95*
Bernardino 92
Location+
Shugart 105
Guerrero 104
Wilson 104
Weissert 103
Slaten 102
Winck 102
Whitlock 101
Kelly 100
Campbell 99
Hendriks 98**
Bernardino 97
Fulmer 97*
Chapman 96
Murphy 95*
Penrod 90
Pitching+
Hendriks 108**
Chapman 106
Guerrero 105
Weissert 105
Shugart 105
Wilson 104
Kelly 104
Slaten 103
Whitlock 102
Campbell 102
Winck 100
Fulmer 100*
Murphy 96*
Bernardino 93
Penrod 91
Starters:
Stuff+
Fitts 112
Houck 108
Crawford 108
Crochet 102
Bello 101
Criswell 100
Sandoval 98
Buehler 94
Giolito 94*
Priester 94
Location+
Crawford 105
Fitts 104
Crochet 103
Criswell 102
Buehler 101
Giolito 101*
Houck 100
Priester 100
Bello 99
Sandoval 98
Pitching+
Crawford 107
Fitts 106
Houck 104
Crochet 103
Bello 102
Giolito 101*
Buehler 100
Criswell 99
Sandoval 99
Priester 98
** = from 2022
* = from 2023
In 2024, Isaiah Campbell had a 145/97/112...in 6 2/3 bad innings, so went with the larger '23 sample size.
In 2020, Walker Buehler had a 138/105/112.
Of the outgoing guys...
Pivetta 133/104/108
Jansen 121/105/110
Martin 98/112/107
Booser 94/100/99
What did I learn from this? Almost nothing...
Here's the Primer on what the stats mean:
Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ Primer | Sabermetrics Library
Relievers:
Stuff+
Chapman 134
Hendriks 134**
Guerrero 119
Kelly 111
Slaten 109
Campbell 106*
Fulmer 105*
Whitlock 104
Wilson 104
Penrod 103
Winck 101
Weissert 100
Shugart 99
Murphy 95*
Bernardino 92
Location+
Shugart 105
Guerrero 104
Wilson 104
Weissert 103
Slaten 102
Winck 102
Whitlock 101
Kelly 100
Campbell 99
Hendriks 98**
Bernardino 97
Fulmer 97*
Chapman 96
Murphy 95*
Penrod 90
Pitching+
Hendriks 108**
Chapman 106
Guerrero 105
Weissert 105
Shugart 105
Wilson 104
Kelly 104
Slaten 103
Whitlock 102
Campbell 102
Winck 100
Fulmer 100*
Murphy 96*
Bernardino 93
Penrod 91
Starters:
Stuff+
Fitts 112
Houck 108
Crawford 108
Crochet 102
Bello 101
Criswell 100
Sandoval 98
Buehler 94
Giolito 94*
Priester 94
Location+
Crawford 105
Fitts 104
Crochet 103
Criswell 102
Buehler 101
Giolito 101*
Houck 100
Priester 100
Bello 99
Sandoval 98
Pitching+
Crawford 107
Fitts 106
Houck 104
Crochet 103
Bello 102
Giolito 101*
Buehler 100
Criswell 99
Sandoval 99
Priester 98
** = from 2022
* = from 2023
In 2024, Isaiah Campbell had a 145/97/112...in 6 2/3 bad innings, so went with the larger '23 sample size.
In 2020, Walker Buehler had a 138/105/112.
Of the outgoing guys...
Pivetta 133/104/108
Jansen 121/105/110
Martin 98/112/107
Booser 94/100/99
What did I learn from this? Almost nothing...
Answering the question about why Casas struck out 6.6% more often in '24 than in '23... it's because he swung at 3.6% more balls out of the strike zone & hit the ball 5.8% less of the time when he swung. On the season, he had 2.8% more swinging strikes & 2.2% more called strikes than the previous year. So worse swing decisions & less contact overall.
In 90 PAs before the injury, he struck out 28.9% of the time & had a 132 wRC+.
In 150 PAs after returning from the injury, he struck out 32.7% of the time & had a 112 wRC+.
A 132 wRC+ for a full season would be 23rd in MLB among qualifying hitters last year. His .513 SLG would have been 14th (.439 after he returned).
But yeah, prior to injury he was on basically the same path has '23 (130 wRC+ to 132 & 25.1% k to 28.9%). To put an even finer point on it...Casas was 2-12 with 5 k's in the 3 games before being shut down. Prior to that, he had a 139 wRC+ & a very in line 26.3% k-rate.
In 90 PAs before the injury, he struck out 28.9% of the time & had a 132 wRC+.
In 150 PAs after returning from the injury, he struck out 32.7% of the time & had a 112 wRC+.
A 132 wRC+ for a full season would be 23rd in MLB among qualifying hitters last year. His .513 SLG would have been 14th (.439 after he returned).
But yeah, prior to injury he was on basically the same path has '23 (130 wRC+ to 132 & 25.1% k to 28.9%). To put an even finer point on it...Casas was 2-12 with 5 k's in the 3 games before being shut down. Prior to that, he had a 139 wRC+ & a very in line 26.3% k-rate.
Diego Cartaya was just DFA'd by the Dodgers to make room for Hye-seong Kim. Immediate speculation the Sox ought to get him, just to get some C depth back into the system.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1875301210426917310
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1875301210426917310
Cartaya...
View: https://twitter.com/Exiled_axe/status/1875308297676583281
Pros: catcher, young
Cons: offense, defense
View: https://twitter.com/Exiled_axe/status/1875308297676583281
Pros: catcher, young
Cons: offense, defense
I actually think he'd be a pretty good 1B. I'm out on the KCamp catching experience, though.So your saying he can't handle 1b or C?
Devers may miss a lot of balls over the plate but he makes up for it by hitting balls out of the strike zone...
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875621546875834806
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875593902671196602
Crochet should be fun...
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875612763218964719
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875626671874961473
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875621546875834806
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875593902671196602
Crochet should be fun...
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875612763218964719
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1875626671874961473