2024-2025 MiLB Offseason

JM3

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simplicio said:
You think Teel wouldn't get totally messed up being opening day backup? I've been thinking of him maybe getting a deadline callup (trading Wong for a reliever or something) as an absolute best case scenario.
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That was mostly just laziness because I forgot Seby Zavala's name. I think Teel probably needs a full year in AAA, but it would be obviously more fun if he earns a significant timeshare out of spring training.

They also need to acquire at least one more catcher in the Zavala+ range.
 
simplicio

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That lines up with what I'd thought happened. I'm glad he decided to stick around after they broke him, and I hope he can work with them to get back on track cause I think it could be back of bullpen stuff when he's right.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
That lines up with what I'd thought happened. I'm glad he decided to stick around after they broke him, and I hope he can work with them to get back on track cause I think it could be back of bullpen stuff when he's right.
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Yeah, it was really exciting when we got a guy with stuff like that who seemed to be on the rise for Urías.

Between him & Mata, getting both off the 40 but retaining them was a really good piece of business.
 
JM3

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Idk... if he played in college like he did in Salem he would have a hard time making up that $3m signing bonus with NIL $$$.

Definitely seems like the rule changes are already causing more players to spend more time playing college baseball.

Going to be up to MLB to see if they want to counter that trend... my guess is they probably won't bother.
 
LogansDad

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JM3 said:
Idk... if he played in college like he did in Salem he would have a hard time making up that $3m signing bonus with NIL $$$.

Definitely seems like the rule changes are already causing more players to spend more time playing college baseball.

Going to be up to MLB to see if they want to counter that trend... my guess is they probably won't bother.
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Agreed, I suspect they will just consider college to fill the gap of the minor league teams that they abandoned, and have zero issue with this trend. The only thing keeping them from instituting an NFL style mandatory college rule, IMHO, is that it would reduce their ability to exploit Latin America for talent.

I love most of the recent on field rule changes, but the owners mandate is for Manfred to make them more profit, not necessarily "grow the game", and every business side decision they have made shows that.
 
JM3

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This has been something I've been kicking around in my head off & on for a couple days that I'm sure has probably been posited somewhere but I have no clue...

... MLB should change the way they use luxury tax money. To the extent they use it for revenue sharing to put money directly in team's pockets, they shouldn't.

There should be a 2-week or so quiet period after the season, & then there should be a free agency bonus window that lasts until let's say December 30th at midnight Eastern. If we're going to normalize a month of Christmas we should normalize b2b NYE.

Anyway, during the bonus window, those luxury tax funds will be used to fund a certain percentage of a player's contract. The higher a team's net profit, the lower the bonus % is. Not 100% sure net profit is the best metric, but I think it's better than revenue & I'm too lazy to fully work this out, yet.

For example, maybe the Yankees' bonus % is the minimum & is like 10%, so if they pay Juan Soto $500m, they're paying $450m & $50m is getting paid from this bonus fund. But if the Rays pay Juan Soto $500m, maybe they're all the way up at the 40% tier & they're paying $300m & $200m is paid from the bonus pool.

There may need to be a cap on the amount of money that can go toward an individual signing, & that would need to be worked out along with the relative amounts of money available for this program but I just want to put this out there before I do hours of math.

Anyway, this would serve many functions:

1) Teams only get revenue sharing if they're signing players during the bonus window, so they are fully incentived to actually spend the money & can't just pocket it & have garbage payrolls.

2) It would make smaller market teams more competitive for exciting players.

3) It would really disincentive both players & teams from waiting until after the new year to get deals done. They'd still be allowed, but both sides lose the benefit of the bonus system.

4) This would turn MLB free agency into much more of an event than the current set up.

This is definitely a pro-player proposal. It incentives more teams to want to spend money & allows them to figure out where they will be spending their next season sooner. That certainty & consistency of an off season routine should limit injuries to some extent.

It is also a pro-owner proposition as it should grow the overall pie by adding excitement to the free agency window & get more eyes on their players in the off season, as well as allow teams to market around their new players sooner.

I'm sure there are a bunch of other loopholes that would need to be sorted like you have to pay back the prorated bonus if you trade the player to a team with a lower bonus % within 2 years or something.

Another option is to have a slightly higher % that goes say through the winter meetings & then a slightly lower one from then until the NYEE deadline.

Most importantly the math & methodology need to be impeccable. But yeah. That's my proposal.
 
JM3

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People really think it's good PR to pretend to try & fail to get a free agent & that people will spend $ on the team because they tried to get a free agent & this is a serious topic for multiple threads & an either/or poll because based on some tea leaves the Red Sox may or may not want to pay a DH $700m...

this-is-fine_custom-b7c50c845a78f5d7716475a92016d52655ba3115.jpg
 
JM3

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simplicio

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Workman caught my eye too, but it seems unlikely he's still there for us to pick.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Workman caught my eye too, but it seems unlikely he's still there for us to pick.
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We've traded up before lol

Looking at those players, Rosario is 22 & the others are between 23 & 26.

R5 draft is at 11 a.m. here (2 p.m. eastern) on Wednesday. Might have to have a celebratory or mourning drink with lunch that day.

View: https://twitter.com/Tmansports1/status/1863783485720211701

"Adding to the farm" isn't really the point of the r5, though, especially for a team as impatient as the Angels.
 
Diamond Don Aase

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JM3 said:
We've traded up before lol

Looking at those players, Rosario is 22 & the others are between 23 & 26.

R5 draft is at 11 a.m. here (2 p.m. eastern) on Wednesday. Might have to have a celebratory or mourning drink with lunch that day.

View: https://twitter.com/Tmansports1/status/1863783485720211701

"Adding to the farm" isn't really the point of the r5, though, especially for a team as impatient as the Angels.
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Well, if we’re talking about Miguel, perhaps it is.

I assume the tweet intended to reference Astros righthander Miguel Ullola but Ullola is not eligible for the 2024 Rule 5 Draft, having signed five months prior to his 19th birthday and completed four professional seasons.
 
JM3

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Diamond Don Aase said:
Well, if we’re talking about Miguel, perhaps it is.

I assume the tweet intended to reference Astros righthander Miguel Ullola but Ullola is not eligible for the 2024 Rule 5 Draft, having signed five months prior to his 19th birthday and completed four professional seasons.
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Interesting. Looks like Ullola was previously in this Just Baseball article & then was removed.

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1863975572612800622

View: https://twitter.com/juleschhghn/status/1865163100670038393


https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/rule-5-draft-preview-which-prospects-will-be-selected/

They list Yordanny 1st in that article...

Yordany Monegro – RHP – Boston Red Sox
2024 Stats (A+): 15 app., 14 GS, 66.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .176 BAA, 11.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Monegro may be as talented as any arm available, but he is also the only name in this article who has not pitched above High-A. Standing at 6-foot-4, Monegro is lanky with a loose, over the top arm action, creating a steep angle with his 93-95 MPH fastballs. That steep angle makes his sinker quite effective but compromises his four-seamer, putting it on an ideal plane for hitters.

Continuing to phase out the four seamer in favor of his sinker which yielded an OPS around .500 last season could help Monegro make the leap to the big leagues, as could his assortment of secondaries, headlined by a plus slider. Monegro closed the year out with a 0.41 ERA over his final 44 High-A innings, holding opponents to a .114 batting average. He may be the furthest away, but with his youth and upside could easily make him worth stashing as a piece that could blossom into a legit rotation option.
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JM3

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After some consideration, there is only one very limited situation R5 day scenario that will make me sad...Yordanny going to a team I absolutely can't root for. There are a lot of teams I would prefer not to root for, but probably the only 100% dealbreaker is the Yankees.

Otherwise, another team sees what I see & I have a new team to root for & follow in a secondary manner, or the Red Sox get to keep him.
 
LogansDad

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JM3 said:
After some consideration, there is only one very limited situation R5 day scenario that will make me sad...Yordanny going to a team I absolutely can't root for. There are a lot of teams I would prefer not to root for, but probably the only 100% dealbreaker is the Yankees.

Otherwise, another team sees what I see & I have a new team to root for & follow in a secondary manner, or the Red Sox get to keep him.
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This seems like a healthy take on the subject.
 
The Gray Eagle

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JM3 said:
After some consideration, there is only one very limited situation R5 day scenario that will make me sad...Yordanny going to a team I absolutely can't root for. There are a lot of teams I would prefer not to root for, but probably the only 100% dealbreaker is the Yankees.

Otherwise, another team sees what I see & I have a new team to root for & follow in a secondary manner, or the Red Sox get to keep him.
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True, but I hate the idea of him being taken, even beyond wanting him with the Red Sox-- a team keeping him on the big league roster all year could wreck his development. That would be a pointless shame.
A-ball pitchers frequently don't ever reach the majors and many get injured, but I'd hate to see him derailed because he got rushed to the majors and that turns a year of development into a year of no development or worse. There's a reason teams don't put A-ball pitchers in the majors.
I bet someone takes him-- if you are a team who isn't trying to compete this year, why wouldn't you take a shot at a guy like this? If he is terrible and his career is damaged, oh well you still have him in your system and maybe you can get him back on track the next year. If not, well it's no risk for the team. Lots of risk for him.
 
JM3

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The Gray Eagle said:
True, but I hate the idea of him being taken, even beyond wanting him with the Red Sox-- a team keeping him on the big league roster all year could wreck his development. That would be a pointless shame.
A-ball pitchers frequently don't ever reach the majors and many get injured, but I'd hate to see him derailed because he got rushed to the majors and that turns a year of development into a year of no development or worse. There's a reason teams don't put A-ball pitchers in the majors.
I bet someone takes him-- if you are a team who isn't trying to compete this year, why wouldn't you take a shot at a guy like this? If he is terrible and his career is damaged, oh well you still have him in your system and maybe you can get him back on track the next year. If not, well it's no risk for the team. Lots of risk for him.
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Ehhh...I feel like in modern baseball spending a season with a competent org's MLB staff with their MLB facilities while still getting the benefit of the development structure while making an MLB salary & getting your service time rolling isn't the worst result. Obviously some organizations would be more problematic than others.

I wish they had chosen to protect him & think it's a mistake... but I'm going to remain optimistic for YORDANNY.
 
nighthob

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JM3 said:
After some consideration, there is only one very limited situation R5 day scenario that will make me sad...Yordanny going to a team I absolutely can't root for. There are a lot of teams I would prefer not to root for, but probably the only 100% dealbreaker is the Yankees.

Otherwise, another team sees what I see & I have a new team to root for & follow in a secondary manner, or the Red Sox get to keep him.
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Maybe they can get him back from the White Sox as part of the Crochet trade?
 
nighthob

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I was assuming that Password would be going out anyhow. I always figured that it would be something like Abreu, Mayer, and Password to make it work. But, as regards Monegro, I still expect the White Sox to take him, because he does have a 60 grade pitch and those guys don't grow on trees.
 
JM3

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Random thoughts...

1) Offering Juan Soto only $700m isn't proof the Red Sox are cheap & don't have a good plan.

2) The Red Sox may actually be cheap now & primarily motivated by profit & not winning.

3) Even if #2 is true the team has given me a lot of joy over the past 20 years & I will choose to watch or not watch based on the enjoyment the team gives me, not the payroll. Although obviously it's easier to put out a better product with a larger payroll.

4) No matter what happens, I couldn't imagine spending my life miserable & whining on a message board over every single player the Red Sox don't sign or do sign who aren't expensive. They don't owe us anything & we don't owe them anything.
 
Merkle's Boner

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@JM3 Do you think some on these boards are underestimating the value of C-Note Rafaela? I was very impressed with his rookie year and, while it was not perfect, I only expect him to improve. IMO he is our strongest defensive CF and SS, and he's the guy I would like to see at SS if (when?) something happens to Story, unless or until Mayer proves himself capable. I just think he's the type of guy you need in your lineup everyday. And yes, I loved JBJ!
 
JM3

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Merkle's Boner said:
@JM3 Do you think some on these boards are underestimating the value of C-Note Rafaela? I was very impressed with his rookie year and, while it was not perfect, I only expect him to improve. IMO he is our strongest defensive CF and SS, and he's the guy I would like to see at SS if (when?) something happens to Story, unless or until Mayer proves himself capable. I just think he's the type of guy you need in your lineup everyday. And yes, I loved JBJ!
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Some? Sure. There's some people on here who hate happiness. While he is a very good defensive CF, there is really no evidence that he's a good defensive SS right now. That could obviously change & he has the tools, but I think Story is pretty clearly their best defensive SS at the moment.

C Note played pretty much a full season last year (571 PAs) & was only worth 0.9 fWAR because he never walks & put up a 79 wRC+. If he is the same player again, he doesn't need to be in the lineup every day & he's better used situationally in a more curated role.

If he's improved, which one would expect from a guy who turned 24 a couple months ago? He could definitely be worth an every day role.

But yeah, I think it's way too early to write him off & even if he doesn't get better he could still be an even more valuable player in a slightly smaller role.
 
mwonow

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Thanks, @JM3! On a related note, it seems like K Campbell, like C-Note, profiles as a man of many positions. Is there room on a roster for two such guys, or will one force a choice on the other?
 
simplicio

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mwonow said:
Thanks, @JM3! On a related note, it seems like K Campbell, like C-Note, profiles as a man of many positions. Is there room on a roster for two such guys, or will one force a choice on the other?
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There definitely is. Look how Cora deployed Ceddanne and Romy this year.
 
JM3

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Yeah, there's room for a whole roster full of those guys if they're good enough. I'm more skeptical on KCamp's defense, but Cora loves to mix & match.
 
JM3

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I have made the life improvement of not posting on the Main Board. Going to have to go ahead & better myself even more by not reading it lol

No...I don't need to read 8k more posts about how much the Red Sox suck each time a transaction gets made that involves 1 of the other 29 teams that most people wouldn't even want to make (I think the Yankees are going to regret that Fried contract within about 2-3 years).

When the off season is over & they haven't done crap, by all means complain, riot, pitchforks, whatever. But in the meantime what's the point of all the vitriol? Or wishcasting all the best players onto our team when that's also not going to happen.

Oh well. Is it weird that I would be more upset to lose Yordanny than Soto & Fried combined? Probably...
 
simplicio

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Yeah there's a lack of perspective over there. I'm not totally against an overpay on a starter, but at the same time we just watched Breslow/Bailey turn Houck/Bello/Crawford/Pivetta/Criswell into a better starting rotation than either of the WS teams had, so maybe trust a little?
 
plucy

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simplicio said:
Yeah there's a lack of perspective over there. I'm not totally against an overpay on a starter, but at the same time we just watched Breslow/Bailey turn Houck/Bello/Crawford/Pivetta/Criswell into a better starting rotation than either of the WS teams had, so maybe trust a little?
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The problem is a lack of an elite offense to accompany mediocre (I think Sox were 12th in ERA) starting pitching.
Soto was the answer, no one else on the market can improve them enough to bring the team to contender status. They will once again be reliant on a high floor team, as they have for three years.
 
simplicio

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11th in ERA in an extreme outlier hitter's park is totally respectable, and their offense was totally fine despite missing most of the infield for most of the year. The way forward is not being ravaged by injuries for a fourth straight year. All the hundreds of millions you might like to spend on free agents mean nothing if they don't actually play games.
 
JM3

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Yeah, everything was mid last year when adjusting for park effects (& grouping starters with bullpen). The cleanest paths for improvement are through improved health & internal development.

They need to add elite talent on top of that. Hopefully a lot of that will be filtering up through the system soon, but in the meantime they have a bunch of money to spend.

Imagine a 37 y/o Max Fried making it difficult to resign ROMAN, though...

Idk. Lots of fun permutations & options because we have some fun pieces. Hopefully they choose a good path.
 
JM3

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I feel like I should be sitting at my office with a hat for every MLB team today.

Could I root for the New Yordanny Yankees? Probably still no.
 
JM3

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Rule 5 draft order (# of people on the 40 in parens)..

White Sox, 41-121 (37) - Could root for. Used to love the Lance Johnson & Jack McDowell Sox. Garbage org, but have developed Cease & Crochet in recent years. 1st pick would also be displaying proper respect.

Rockies, 61-101 (39) - Would be hard to get too behind him having to pitch where no one has successfully pitched before. Have fond memories of Dante Bichette hitting a ball like 450 to me in batting practice in Phoenix while we were eating at LF Friday's.

Marlins, 62-100 (39) - Lots of good pitching development lately. Marlins have been a top 5-7 team for me since their inception & I would be here for it.

Angels, 63-99 (39) - I strongly dislike the Angels... but LA is only 4 hours away & they have no problem giving significant playing time to players who aren't ready for MLB.

Athletics, 69-93 (37) - Hate the color scheme/owner & really hope they rebrand by the time they come here... but the stadium they're building is like 20 minutes from my house & I would probably invest in season tickets...

Nationals, 71-91 (36) - Don't feel too strongly. Have some nice pieces from the Soto trade. Would definitely root for.

Blue Jays, 74-88 (38) - That's a rough one. Never been too into the Blue Jays other than in video game baseball when they had Rickey, Alomar & Devo setting the table for Joe Carter & slow azz John Olerud. Would be hard to see him in the AL East.

Pirates, 76-86 (36) - This would be fun
Skenes/Jones/Yordanny/Bubba rotation. Been a Pirates fan off & on since Bonds/Bonilla. Plus Yorke is there. Would definitely be in on this.

Reds, 77-85 (37) - He would have fun playing with EDLC.

Rangers, 78-84 (39) - Hard to root for but would maybe find a way.

Giants, 80-82 (39) - Wouldn't love it, but no super strong objection.

Rays, 80-82 (37) - I lived in St. Pete for a while so can't hate the Rays too much. If he's going to the AL East this would be the least problematic choice.

Red Sox, 81-81 (39) - If he slips this far...lol. I think Aroldis makes 40 but idk?

Twins, 82-80 (37) - Couldn't get too excited about this one, but I would try.

Cardinals, 83-79 (38) - I don't hate the Cards & I could get behind rationalizing Bloom's maneuvers again.

Cubs, 83-79 (39) - Wouldn't like it, but I could do it.

Mariners, 85-77 (37) - Would be a good park for his career. Could root for. I'm probably going to a Mariners/Twins game in late May before going on a cruise to Alaska so that would be a lot of fun if he got into the game.

Royals, 86-76 (38) - Would be meh, but I would find a way to root for it.

Tigers, 86-76 (40) - See Royals.

Astros, 88-73 (39) - I used to love the Biggio/Bagwell Astros. They've become a lot less likeable, but I could still root for it.

Mets, 89-73 (33) - I could root for the New Yordanny Mets. Supporting a team with an unlimited payroll would have its perks.

D-backs, 89-73 (36) - Went to college in AZ & still have good feelings about the DBacks from vanquishing the Yankees. Could root for & once he's in the rotation would probably go to some games.

Braves, 89-73 (36) - Hard to root for, but would.

Orioles, 91-71 (37) - AL East issues.

Guardians, 92-69 (39) - Always hated the Albert Belle, Omar Vizquel, Joe Table Cleveland teams. Would still root for, but would not like.

Padres, 93-69 (33) - Padres were my 2nd favorite team growing up. Tony Gwynn is my favorite player of all time. & San Diego is 5 hours from me. Would be all in.

Brewers, 93-69 (37) - Could root for. The Greg Vaughn Brewers were fun.

Yankees, 94-68 (35) - No.

Phillies, 95-67 (39) - Wouldn't like, but would root for.

Dodgers, 98-64 (39) - I can't hate the Dodgers. They built this up the right way, do smart things & have Mookie. They're also 4 hours away from me. Would root for.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-rule-5-draft-preview
 
jon abbey

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The last time the Yankees took a rule 5 player and kept them was 1973, so I think you're safe on that one.
 
JM3

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jon abbey said:
The last time the Yankees took a rule 5 player and kept them was 1973, so I think you're safe on that one.
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So you're saying I should wait until he makes it through the whole season before buying a Yankees hat?

My dad grew up a Yankees fan before he went to college & stayed in MA & eventually migrated over. Big Mantle guy. Yordanny can complete the loop.
 
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