2024-2025 MiLB Offseason

JM3

JM3

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Petagine in a Bottle said:
Yeah, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Fullmer resigned to a minor league deal. Or to sign somewhere else, or sign nowhere if still hurt. Who knows.
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Fulmer is on the 2nd year of his 2-year Minor League deal. If no one claims him he would be really nice non-40 depth.
 
JM3

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Non-tender day tomorrow.

Since we're going to tender Houck, Duran & Crawford, the only potential interesting stuff is...

If the Red Sox make any moves Friday, it’ll be because they non-tender a pre-arbitration player making close to the major league minimum in an effort to clear roster space (their 40-man roster is full). Boston did this with injured reliever Wyatt Mills a year ago and then re-signed him to a two-year minor league contract. This time around, end-of-roster players like Bailey Horn, Chase Shugart and Mickey Gasper.
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^^^ this last thing isn't a sentence.

& other teams have some decisions including, but not limited to, these guys...

Colorado’s Brendan Rodgers, the Yankees’ Trent Grisham, San Francisco’s Mike Yastrzemski, Milwaukee’s Aaron Civale, Los Angeles’ Dustin May, Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie, Toronto’s Alek Manoah, Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, San Francisco’s Camilo Doval and Toronto’s Jordan Romano.
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/red-sox-face-roster-deadline-friday-heres-why-it-should-be-uneventful.html
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Ehhh he used to have a great fastball. Now he has a terrible one.
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His fastball traits are almost identical to 2021. He's only 30 & he throws 7 different pitches. I think he'll turn out to be a fun investment for someone another year removed from surgery.
 
simplicio

simplicio

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I'm seeing velocity down, spin rate down, stuff+ metrics down. The spin rate game logs paint a really clear picture of a guy who was hit hard by the sticky stuff crackdown in June 2021 and has struggled to reinvent himself since. Maybe he'll figure something out but I don't think the pre-crackdown guy is still in there.
92221
 
JM3

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In 2021 his 4-seam fastball was 95.3 & in 2024 it was 95.0.

In 2021 he had 12" vertical break & 3" horizontal, & in 2024 he had 13.6" of vertical break & 4.3" horizontal.

Spin rate down from 2472 to 2280.

So yeah, better ride in '21, but mostly similar traits & nothing that shouldn't be helped by an extra year of health. He also only threw that pitch 29% of the time & he has enough other offerings (particularly the sweeper & cutter) that he should be fine.

I'm optimistic, but who knows? TNSSAAP.
 
LoLsapien

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simplicio said:
I'm seeing velocity down, spin rate down, stuff+ metrics down. The spin rate game logs paint a really clear picture of a guy who was hit hard by the sticky stuff crackdown in June 2021 and has struggled to reinvent himself since. Maybe he'll figure something out but I don't think the pre-crackdown guy is still in there.
View attachment 92221
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Kinda looks like a guy who was returning from TJ surgery. I asked the googles whether there is typically improvement for starting pitchers from year one to year two after returning to play, and this is what I got. Hopefully this attaches correctly, but if not, the gist is that pitching performance typically improves in the second year back. Command/control is generally improved with the second year back, with the biggest improvements to fastballs and sinkers. So, depending on the price, I would definitely be interested in betting on his return to form. Maybe Google's AI is hallucinating, I dunno.
 

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simplicio

simplicio

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Except the stuff was already down after the ban in 2021 and in 2022 pre-injury as well.
 
LoLsapien

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simplicio said:
Except the stuff was already down after the ban in 2021 and in 2022 pre-injury as well.
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This stuff, that stuff... 2021 was Buehlers most valuable year by fwar! I'd be lying if I said I understood all the advanced stats. But the headline numbers all look fantastic, even if we assume the ERA was juiced by an absurdly low BABIP and WAR boosted by his career best innings pitched.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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I don't have any particular insights at the moment but as the days get shorter and colder I find myself randomly thinking about how crazy it is that we have 4 top 25 prospects who crushed at AAA and who all play different premium defensive positions.

Campbell is going to be such a ceiling-raiser for this franchise in the coming years as basically a totally unexpected source of star power at a position we have struggled to fill since Pedroia.
 
The Gray Eagle

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simplicio said:
Speier is doing a chat about the farm today at 2pm ET:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/boston-red-sox-2025-mlb-prospects-chat/

Don't know if you have to be a BBA member to see/join. He did a top 10 today that's paywalled.
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Here's the link to his top 10:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/11/25/sports/boston-red-sox-prospect-rankings/

He ranks them like this:
1. Anthony
2. Campbell
3. Mayer
4. Teel
5. Arias
6. Montgomery
7. Perales
8. Meidroth
9. Y. Cespedes
10. Sandlin
 
simplicio

simplicio

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The Speier chat I linked above is not paywalled after all, there's some good stuff in there for y'all.
 
JM3

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nvalvo said:
Great thread, great initial post, great discussion. A bunch of these guys need to be graduating to this forum from *ominous music* the realm of JM3.
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Pfffff but the vibes here are immaculate. Tis the Main Board that needs the ominous music. But hopefully less so once I bestow this bounty of prospects upon y'all & I'm left with projecting respectability for Yosander, Yute, Riemer, Ilan et al.

Fwiw I think KCamp mostly projects as a 2B/LF type with the ability to fill in everywhere else, but not the skills to be someone you would want to slot in those places regularly. Good versatility for the Cora revolving platoon substitutions.
 
simplicio

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JM3 said:
Fwiw I think KCamp mostly projects as a 2B/LF type with the ability to fill in everywhere else, but not the skills to be someone you would want to slot in those places regularly. Good versatility for the Cora revolving platoon substitutions.
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That's what I used to think, but all the most recent scouting on his defense since the close of the season has sounded way more positive than what we were hearing before.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
That's what I used to think, but all the most recent scouting on his defense since the close of the season has sounded way more positive than what we were hearing before.
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It's awkward-looking to me. He's competent there, & that's why I think he'd be fine as a fill in, & I think that's a step up from the previous scouting reports/projections, but I don't think he would ever be a plus MLB SS or anything.

I think most of this comes from the Brian Abraham interview & I think they were definitely pleasantly surprised with his ability to hold his own there, but they're grading him on a curve.
 
simplicio

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I don't know if it was also sourced from Abraham, but Speier was very positive about him in that BBA chat.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
I don't know if it was also sourced from Abraham, but Speier was very positive about him in that BBA chat.
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Ehhhh...

Yes, I think there are a lot of scenarios for how Campbell's defensive future plays out, which is part of the reason why he's a super-appealing prospect (and also why it would be difficult for the Sox to consider trading him). He could Zobrist all over the place, he could be a 2B, he could be an OF (LF or CF)... there are a lot of paths. (Not everyone sees it that way - as is the case with him as a hitter, he has an unorthodox look in the field that scares away some scouts, but his metrics were strong at every position he played this year, including SS.)
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I don't think this says much different than what I did?
 
simplicio

simplicio

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"his metrics were strong at every position... including SS" scans way more favorably to me than "with the ability to fill in everywhere else, but not the skills to be someone you would want to slot in those places regularly," but I'm not trying to argue your intent here.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
"his metrics were strong at every position... including SS" scans way more favorably to me than "with the ability to fill in everywhere else, but not the skills to be someone you would want to slot in those places regularly," but I'm not trying to argue your intent here.
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Positive metrics (in MiLB) is such a vague phrasing, & he uses it to push back on the scouts he's talked to who are saying they don't think he has a strong defensive future ahead of him.

He made 3 errors in 298.2 innings at SS, which is impressive. He had 63 assists during that time... which doesn't sound like a lot (1.90/9).

Comparing to some other guys in the org at SS in AA & AAA for rough comparisons...

Mayer 122 in 543 (2.02)
Meidroth 110 in 412 (2.40)
Ferguson 20 in 71 (2.54)
Paulino 20 in 95 (Sox only) (1.89)
Sogard 16 in 64 (2.25)
McDonough 9 in 65 (1.25)
Liendo 14 in 45 (2.80)
Ravelo 10 in 43 (2.09)

Who knows?
 
JM3

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Going to amend my political post. Let's just say I've already lost faith in humanity & am out of energy to get too worked up about a relief pitcher in comparison to the other examples.
 
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JM3

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YTF said:
Devil's advocate...Do you wait until guys start dropping off the board? This FO has been eviscerated for the past few seasons for it's inactivity. Are we now looking to them to approach the season as if they may not contend?
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Is Aroldis Chapman the Devil is one of my favorite sub-Reddits.

Sorry, actual MiLB content: I could see Andy Lugo flying back into top 60s near you soon.

View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1864142164990599618


Lugo split the 2024 campaign between Low-A Salem and High-A Greenville. In 108 games, the right-handed hitting 21-year-old batted .263/.337/.371 with 30 doubles, one triple, three home runs, 45 RBIs, 47 runs scored, 28 stolen bases (in 32 attempts), 31 walks, and 88 strikeouts over 420 plate appearances.
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Among the 21 Red Sox minor-leaguers who made at least 400 trips to the plate in 2024, Lugo ranked first in wSB (2.3), third in line-drive rate (27.9 percent), sixth in strikeout rate (21 percent), seventh in swinging-strike rate (10.8 percent), eighth in batting average, and 10th in speed score (6.2) and wRC+ (111), per FanGraphs.
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If you're as curious about wSB as I was...

wSB = (SB * runSB) + (CS * runCS) – (lgwSB * (1B + BB + HBP – IBB))

League stolen base runs (lgwSB) is:

lgwSB = (SB * runSB + CS * runCS) / (1B + BB + HBP – IBB)
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https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/wsb/

Lugo — who turns 21 in March — is not currently ranked among Boston’s top 60 prospects by SoxProspects.com, which projects that he will return to Greenville for the start of the 2025 season if he remains with the organization through the winter and into the spring.
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https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/12/03/after-missing-all-of-2023-how-did-versatile-red-sox-prospect-andy-lugo-fare-this-past-season/

Am I posting Andy Lugo content at 4:50 a.m. at the gym? Yes.

Do I have any regrets? No.

View: https://twitter.com/GreenvilleDrive/status/1827512637258657871


View: https://twitter.com/GreenvilleDrive/status/1819158009370624077
 
JM3

JM3

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Interesting comparison to Booser's last 27.2 IP... almost identical ERA, but huge difference in leverage & underlying #s...

2-2, 1 save, 3 holds

3.25 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.79 xFIP

8.1 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 1.52 WHIP
 
JM3

JM3

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Bernie's last 28 (not cherry-picked, but he threw 2 scoreless on June 1st & I wasn't going to choose just one of the innings):

2-2, 0 saves, 12 holds

6.75 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 3.98 xFIP

10.6 k/9, 3.9 bb/9, 1.89 WHIP
 
JM3

JM3

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& finally, not a lefty buuuuut...

Kenley's last 27.1 IP:

1-1, 12 saves, 0 holds

4.28 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.01 xFIP

9.9 k/9, 3 bb/9, 1.06 WHIP
 
JM3

JM3

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Actually one more...Justin Wilson's last 27:

0-4, 1 save, 3 holds

5.67 ERA, 5.57 FIP, 4.44 xFIP

8.3 k/9, 2.7 bb/9, 1.41 WHIP
 
JM3

JM3

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LoLsapien said:
I actually went and tried to look up an 'is aroldis chapman the devil' subreddit. Damn you, JM3!!
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Lol the "Am I the Devil" one is pretty funny. I don't read it, but hear the stories on a Smosh podcast I've been listening to lately & slacking on my MiLB podcast listening (my apologies to Andrew Parker).

Of note if you start that sub-reddit...Chapman's ERA in his last 27 innings is exactly half of 6.66. Food for thought.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3

JM3

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Jim Bowden (who my phone wants to rename "Him Powder") is a wild man.

1. Red Sox land Garrett Crochet from White Sox

The rebuilding White Sox are committed to trading Crochet in an effort to acquire controllable everyday players who improve their offense for both the short term and long term. They match up well with teams like the Orioles and Dodgers but maybe match up the best with the Red Sox. A package led by Gold Glove-winning right fielder Wilyer Abreu, first baseman Triston Casas and catcher Connor Wong is probably close to what would work for both teams. The Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony as their long-term solution in right field, top prospect Kyle Teel as their future catcher, and they could move Rafael Devers from third to first base and replace him at third in free agency with Alex Bregman, Willy Adames or someone else. Crochet, who is under team control for two more seasons, posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.068 WHIP with 209 strikeouts in 146 innings (32 starts) last season.
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5968557/2024/12/04/mlb-trade-proposals-winter-meetings/

Abreu, Wong, Meidroth & Winck combined with a Carson Kelly signing, though...
 
JM3

JM3

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While I'm just making up crap we'll also send Casas, Jhostynxon, Valdez & Crawford to Seattle for Kirby, send Yoshida, Booser, Hamilton & Binelas to STL for Arenado & Helsey, & sign Juan Soto.

Devers/Grissom/Story/Arenado
Duran/C Note/Roman
Soto
Kelly

Teel/K Camp/Romy/Ref

Kirby/Houck/Crochet/Bello/Giolito
Helsey/Chapman/Hendriks/Slaten/Whitlock/Guerrero/Wilson

Criswell/Priester/Fitts/Dobbins/Penrod/Drohan
Pengod/Weissert/Kelly/Berny/Murphy/Wikelman/Shugart

Penrod & Pengod obviously 2 different people.

Is it particularly realistic? No.

Would it make up for losing Yordanny in the R5? Probably not.

But would it be fun? Yes.
 
simplicio

simplicio

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You think Teel wouldn't get totally messed up being opening day backup? I've been thinking of him maybe getting a deadline callup (trading Wong for a reliever or something) as an absolute best case scenario.
 
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