2024-2025 MiLB Offseason

JM3

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#39 Tanner Houck

Tanner Houck enjoyed a breakout 2024 season which saw him post a 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP across a career high 178.2 innings. It seemed like the volume caught up to him though as he struggled in the 2nd half while missing a couple of starts in September. His slider and splitter performed exceptionally well with his sinker returning average results. Pitching in Fenway will likely hurt his overall line, but Houck should remain productive on an up-and-coming Red Sox team.
https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-starting-pitchers-for?open=false#§undefined
 

JM3

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#4 Garrett Crochet

Garrett Crochet’s first season as a starter in MLB was a grand success as he led all starters with an absurd 29.6 K-BB%. His 2nd half was marred by innings restrictions and poor HR luck, but those will likely be left in the rearview mirror in Boston. His 4-Seam Fastball and cutter combo can shutdown the best of offenses and he supplements that with strong secondaries and phenomenal command. On a per inning basis, Crochet may be the best pitcher in baseball, but questions about his volume have me slotting his at #4.
https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-starting-pitchers-for-542?open=false#§undefined
 

JM3

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Top 50 of what exactly? Because Spencer Strider is below Zach Eflin. Is this just a 2025 only forecast, i.e. expected WAR?
& here's the writeup on Strider.

Spencer Strider is one of my favourite pitchers. I was disappointed when I heard he was undergoing elbow surgery early in the 2024 season, but I coped by envisioning a grand return in 2025. Although it is unlikely he will return in April, a late-May return should line him up for a good chunk of innings. His ceiling is the #1 pitcher in baseball thanks to immaculate fastball and slider, but without the volume, he slots in at the back-end of the Top 50. Don’t forget that he has a new curveball!
& Eflin...

Zach Eflin excelled following his trade to Baltimore, recording a 2.60 ERA across his final 55.1 Innings. Not much changed though, as his BB% remained strong and he saw a slight increase in strikeouts. His ability to effectively weave in 6 different pitches gives him plenty of options to attack batters, helping him garner an elite chase rate and limit damage. Entering 2025 he will be leaned on heavily in the shallow Orioles rotation where his excellent command and deep arsenal should flourish.
https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-starting-pitchers-for?open=false#§undefined
 

JM3

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Chatting with GPT (paraphrasing):

Me: Looking for some deep sleeper Red Sox prospects.

GPT: How about Kyle Teel & Luis Perales?

Me: No, Teel was traded, Perales is coming back from TJ, & neither of those are nearly deep enough. Try harder.

GPT: What about Blaze, Wikelman & Bleis?

Me: Wikelman was also traded to the White Sox & Blaze & Bleis aren't deep enough. Go deeper.

GPT: (actual quote)

For a deep sleeper breakout Red Sox prospect, consider Noah Dean, a left-handed reliever drafted in 2022. Dean has flown under the radar but possesses a fastball-slider combo that could dominate if his control continues to improve. Though primarily a bullpen arm, his potential to carve out a high-leverage role could make him a surprise impact player.

Another intriguing choice is Ceddanne Rafaela's younger brother, Enmanuel Rafaela, who is extremely raw but has been quietly developing in the lower minors. If he can leverage his athleticism and refine his approach, he could emerge as a prospect worth watching in 2025.
Me: Enmanuel Rafaela doesn't exist lol

GPT: Would you like some more information on [thing you asked me about last week]?
 

JM3

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Still trying to figure out how to get AI to do my bidding. I asked it to write a detailed, complimentary post about Yordanny Monegro in the style of JM3 on Sons of Sam Horn.

They apparently don't know who I am as they called him "Monegro". I asked them to try again only to make it more complimentary, more detailed & to call him YORDANNY. It did not comply with my 3rd request.

Yordanny Monegro, a towering 6'4", 180-pound right-handed pitcher from Santo Domingo Centro, Dominican Republic, has rapidly ascended the ranks of the Boston Red Sox's minor league system, establishing himself as one of the organization's most promising pitching prospects.

Scouting Report:

Fastball: Monegro's four-seam fastball consistently sits just under 95 mph, effectively challenging hitters with its velocity.

Curveball: His 12-to-6 curveball, clocking in between 76-81 mph, serves as a formidable secondary pitch, keeping batters off-balance.

Cutter: Adding to his arsenal, Monegro employs an 88-90 mph cutter, providing a sharp, late-breaking option against hitters.

Additional Pitches: He also utilizes a two-seamer and is developing a splitter, though the latter remains a work in progress.

2024 Season Highlights:

In August 2024, Monegro was honored as SoxProspects.com's Pitcher of the Month, a testament to his exceptional performance during that period.

On August 1, 2024, Monegro played a pivotal role in a combined no-hitter for the Greenville Drive, showcasing his dominance on the mound.

Later that month, on August 14, he delivered a masterful performance, contributing significantly to a 4-0 victory for Greenville.

Developmental Insights:

Monegro's diverse pitch repertoire and his ability to maintain velocity deep into games have been instrumental in his rapid progression within the Red Sox organization. His curveball, in particular, has been highlighted as a plus pitch, contributing to his effectiveness on the mound.

As he continues to refine his control and develop his secondary pitches, Monegro is poised to further establish himself as a top-tier pitching prospect within the Red Sox farm system.
We'll get there some day AI...
 

tbrown_01923

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Still trying to figure out how to get AI to do my bidding. I asked it to write a detailed, complimentary post about Yordanny Monegro in the style of JM3 on Sons of Sam Horn.

They apparently don't know who I am as they called him "Monegro". I asked them to try again only to make it more complimentary, more detailed & to call him YORDANNY. It did not comply with my 3rd request.



We'll get there some day AI...
What was your prompt? How experienced are you with prompting, have you tried any of the advanced techniques? E.g., multi step, examples, aliases....
 

JM3

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What was your prompt? How experienced are you with prompting, have you tried any of the advanced techniques? E.g., multi step, examples, aliases....
I was just messing with it. I know I can feed it input like sending it my actual posts & get more granular with it but was hoping to just give it a sentence & get something decent without doing any work.

I use it fairly often for surface level stuff but haven't gotten too into the advanced techniques, yet.
 

JM3

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Usually I like Jen McCaffrey's stuff, but kinda meh on her farm heat check article. But here is her projection of the 2027 team utilizing only internal options...

Projected starting lineup:
Duran, CF
Campbell, 2B
Anthony, LF
Devers, DH
Casas, 1B
Story, SS
Mayer, 3B
Abreu, RF
Wong, C

Bench: Ceddanne Rafaela, INF, OF; Jhostynxon Garcia, OF; Carlos Narvaez, C; Mikey Romero, 2B/SS

Projected rotation:
LHP Garrett Crochet
RHP Tanner Houck
RHP Brayan Bello
RHP Luis Perales
RHP David Sandlin

Projected bullpen:
RHP Justin Slaten, closer
RHP Garrett Whitlock, setup man
RHP Luis Guerrero, setup man
RHP Hunter Dobbins, multi inning/mid relief
RHP Richard Fitts, multi inning/mid relief
LHP Zach Penrod, mid relief
LHP Payton Tolle, mid relief
RHP Yordanny Monegro, mid relief

Pro:
YORDANNY

Con:
The 1st part of this isn't true:

Monegro ended last year in Double A and should be in the mix by 2027, but whether he has enough to stick in the rotation remains to be seen.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6109962/2025/02/04/red-sox-farm-system-heat-watch/
 

Merkle's Boner

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While I love this, I would expect there to be some external options to come in over the next few years. I vote for Vladdy.
 

tbrown_01923

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Looks like Bleis is the big loser there.
He's still young, has missed a ton of development time, and needs at bats to refine approach etc. The numbers say "be skeptical" and maybe he has missed too much critical development time already? Maybe he doesn't make the bigs at 22 or 23... I don't know if he is the loser here - on the plus side he is a right handed bat, and maybe he becomes a reasonable backfill for one of the outfields as they age past arbitration in a few years... Maybe he rebounds this year and is traded
 

Fishy1

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He's still young, has missed a ton of development time, and needs at bats to refine approach etc. The numbers say "be skeptical" and maybe he has missed too much critical development time already? Maybe he doesn't make the bigs at 22 or 23... I don't know if he is the loser here - on the plus side he is a right handed bat, and maybe he becomes a reasonable backfill for one of the outfields as they age past arbitration in a few years... Maybe he rebounds this year and is traded
He's young, but he's not that young anymore. He'll be 21 next month.

He's been plain bad over his last 500 or so plate appearances, with the brief appearance of life at A ball last year... Totally possible he figures things out, but I would guess not.
 

tbrown_01923

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He's young, but he's not that young anymore. He'll be 21 next month.

He's been plain bad over his last 500 or so plate appearances, with the brief appearance of life at A ball last year... Totally possible he figures things out, but I would guess not.
I'd guess not too. but there was a lot of missed time, which provides me some slight optimism over his results.
 

JM3

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I am still very optimistic on Bleis. All the tools are there & he's been partaking in a swing overhaul which led him from 2 many hard groundouts to too many popouts (with an injury in between wherein he swung so hard he messed up his shoulder).

All the EV stuff still looks good, & scouts who watch him play are still in. It's just a matter of some fine tuning, but there is still a lot to be excited about.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCleggMiLB/status/1827014744944853217


Bleis ended up with a .219 BABIP in Greenville last season.

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1826792564680270160


View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1801414933797642573

BLEIS.
 

LogansDad

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Honestly, whatever it takes to getvMarcelo on the field for most of the season, I hope they are doing it. Most of that shit looks fun, anyway.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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The Gammo tweet is confusing (Sorry for the redundancy). "...the organization believes in the rear window are some potential fast rising pitchers: Perales, Early, Sandlin, Tolle, Clarke. .. " Does that mean that their rise is over? Like put in the rearview mirror?
 

JM3

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The Gammo tweet is confusing (Sorry for the redundancy). "...the organization believes in the rear window are some potential fast rising pitchers: Perales, Early, Sandlin, Tolle, Clarke. .. " Does that mean that their rise is over? Like put in the rearview mirror?
Gammo doesn't drive very fast anymore. They're rapidly approaching.
 

LogansDad

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The Gammo tweet is confusing (Sorry for the redundancy). "...the organization believes in the rear window are some potential fast rising pitchers: Perales, Early, Sandlin, Tolle, Clarke. .. " Does that mean that their rise is over? Like put in the rearview mirror?
It is confusing, but I think what he means is that the organization thinks those pitchers in particular are very close to being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
 

DavidTai

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The Gammo tweet is confusing (Sorry for the redundancy). "...the organization believes in the rear window are some potential fast rising pitchers: Perales, Early, Sandlin, Tolle, Clarke. .. " Does that mean that their rise is over? Like put in the rearview mirror?
More like "The Sox are driving along, but in the rear view mirror, these guys are fast approaching, so you may need to make different decisions driving based on how fast they're going."
 

simplicio

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Oh shoot that's right, forgot about that part. Thanks for the correct, will edit.
 

Fishy1

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JM3

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People's evaluations of Ceddanne are all over the place, huh? Some people see us as stacked.

If he pops offensively, then yeah, we've got three three-way demons out there...But if he gives us a 80 wrc+ again (which he might), I don't see how Anthony doesn't take his role.
I think it's pretty wild that people have such strong opinions in either direction about whether Roman will start the season with the MLB team. If he proves he's ready, he should start opening day. If he doesn't, he can start the year in Worcester.

Abreu & C Note should never have an impact on what you do with Roman. Roman should impact what you do with Abreu & C Note.
 

Fishy1

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I think it's pretty wild that people have such strong opinions in either direction about whether Roman will start the season with the MLB team. If he proves he's ready, he should start opening day. If he doesn't, he can start the year in Worcester.

Abreu & C Note should never have an impact on what you do with Roman. Roman should impact what you do with Abreu & C Note.
Okay. I guess where we diverge is I think what he did last year to AA and AAA proved he was ready. If he flails, so be it. YMMV.
 

JM3

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Okay. I guess where we diverge is I think what he did last year to AA and AAA proved he was ready. If he flails, so be it. YMMV.
There's a lot more to being ready for MLB than crushing the minors before you're old enough to drink.

& I don't personally know Roman well enough to know if flailing would be damaging to him or if there are other little things they want him to work on first.

I'm hoping he earns it. That would be a very good result. But whatever puts him in the best position to succeed long term is where he should be.
 

Fishy1

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There's a lot more to being ready for MLB than crushing the minors before you're old enough to drink.

& I don't personally know Roman well enough to know if flailing would be damaging to him or if there are other little things they want him to work on first.

I'm hoping he earns it. That would be a very good result. But whatever puts him in the best position to succeed long term is where he should be.
We're both hoping for the same thing! Obviously if he looks horrific in Spring Training he should get a couple of weeks in AAA, you don't want a guy carrying that into the majors. By then, someone will be injured anyways. ;) Holding a top prospect back comes with a opportunity cost: what if he's ready and he's way better than the options we're already trotting out there?

And I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Like, I'm sure there's some individuation in all of this, but isn't that what guys are promoted for? Their performance? Rafaela had major chase issues in AAA, for example, but he got promoted anyways because he was hitting and the defense was otherworldly.

I'm also not worried about his ego or his confidence getting shattered. That fear seems to loom very large in people's minds, but I really can't think of too many top prospects for the Sox who were hurt by being promoted too fast. Some guys have longer adjustment periods than others, but that's just the cost of doing business, and it's better to get that ball rolling than to wait.
 

JM3

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We're both hoping for the same thing! Obviously if he looks horrific in Spring Training he should get a couple of weeks in AAA, you don't want a guy carrying that into the majors. By then, someone will be injured anyways. ;) Holding a top prospect back comes with a opportunity cost: what if he's ready and he's way better than the options we're already trotting out there?

And I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Like, I'm sure there's some individuation in all of this, but isn't that what guys are promoted for? Their performance? Rafaela had major chase issues in AAA, for example, but he got promoted anyways because he was hitting and the defense was otherworldly.

I'm also not worried about his ego or his confidence getting shattered. That fear seems to loom very large in people's minds, but I really can't think of too many top prospects for the Sox who were hurt by being promoted too fast. Some guys have longer adjustment periods than others, but that's just the cost of doing business, and it's better to get that ball rolling than to wait.
Random hypothetical based on a super surface level skim of stats. The Red Sox notice that in Worcester, Roman either hit groundballs or infield fly balls on over 75% of his balls in play, & also he's pulling the ball more than he ever has at any other level & is not going up the middle enough. They say, hey Roman, you're great, but I think your career will be 12% better if we make this adjustment that allows you to keep your hands back more & drive the ball harder, more often, to the opposite field & ground out less. Roman is a quick study & is great, but it's taking a bit of time for this adjustment to click. If it still hasn't clicked & the season is ready to start, I would rather him keep trying to figure it out at Worcester than in Boston because it's a far less stressful way to make that change which will hopefully benefit his career for the next 15+ years.

I have no clue if that's the case or if they're very happy with where he's at & think he's ready to kick azz in the majors, but I feel like the more I learn about baseball, the more I realize how little I actually know & how little of the information that really matters we are publicly privy to.

So my opinion can only go so far as to say I think they should base the decision on these factors, & as long as they do that, & are good at their job, I have to trust them to make the right decision. If they are making the decision based on maximizing a win on the edges this season, or on manipulating years of control, or a coin flip, then the process sucks even if they end up making the right decision.
 

Fishy1

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The hypothetical seems a little silly from where I'm sitting because I can't imagine tinkering with guys who respectively were 50% and 80% better than the competition, but it's not impossible. I don't know that much either, and I'm by no means suggesting it's impossible they'll hold either of them back...but from looking at a lot of comps and guys with Anthony/Campbell's success, there's no way around the fact that prospects get promoted when they're destroying the competition because destroying upper minor league pitching correlates just as well as past major league success. Bill James discovered this in the 1980s: once you account for park factors and about an 16-18% adjustment for quality of play, you can predict a guy's performance about as accurately as you can based on a guy's past major league performance.

You still see 95+ miles per hour, you still see sliders down and in with nasty break, you still see splitters, there's still guys with weird arm slots, there's still elite pitching (that won't be there very long, but yeah). There's just more of the good stuff in the majors and more of the bad stuff in the minors. That's what's hard about the big leagues, it's not like everyone in the majors has some magical new pitch you don't see in AAA.

It's also not impossible they're afraid something in his profile might get exposed in the big leagues, but there are in most cases warning signs that show up just from looking at a guy's rate stats (E.g., Rafaela's 5.4% BB rate in a AAA league where you could challenge balls and strikes, Dalbec's astronomical K rates): glaring holes in their profile that can be exploited (never, ever throw Rafaela a strike). In that sense the minor leagues are different than the major leagues, but they're not that different.

I don't see anything like that in Anthony's profile: but I also thought JBJ was going to have a super smooth adjustment to the big leagues, so who knows.
 

JM3

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Yes...Roman had a 162 wRC+ in 164 PAs in AAA last year. But a .424 BABIP is pretty pretty unsustainable. & the pitching in AAA is very not elite, & the leap is much greater than in Bill James's day, especially with the robo umpires. & there are a lot of ways to exploit hitters other than just striking them out (although that's obviously the easiest & most fun way). In terms of tinkering...KCamp had a 152 wRC+ in '23 & SP thought so lowly of him they had him ranked 46th in the system this time last year. There's always room for improvement, no matter how good the results. Although there's obviously a point where you aren't trying to mess with the actual swing, at all.

Fwiw, I botched that stat I used in my hypothetical. He had a 25% IFFB which means 25% of his fly balls (23.8%) were infield fly balls, which means on top of his 51.5% ground balls, only 57.5% of his contact was groundballs or infield flies.
 

Fishy1

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Yes...Roman had a 162 wRC+ in 164 PAs in AAA last year. But a .424 BABIP is pretty pretty unsustainable. & the pitching in AAA is very not elite, & the leap is much greater than in Bill James's day, especially with the robo umpires. & there are a lot of ways to exploit hitters other than just striking them out (although that's obviously the easiest & most fun way). In terms of tinkering...KCamp had a 152 wRC+ in '23 & SP thought so lowly of him they had him ranked 46th in the system this time last year. There's always room for improvement, no matter how good the results. Although there's obviously a point where you aren't trying to mess with the actual swing, at all.

Fwiw, I botched that stat I used in my hypothetical. He had a 25% IFFB which means 25% of his fly balls (23.8%) were infield fly balls, which means on top of his 51.5% ground balls, only 57.5% of his contact was groundballs or infield flies.
Is that true? Like, I know people have said that a lot, but I haven't actually ever seen any evidence presented. Seems like guys would be better prepared than ever, if anything, given the attention and preparation they get in the minors nowadays.

And anecdotally it seems like guys with good patience translate pretty well. Casas and Abreu were both wrc+ of about 125 and they've approximated that in the big leagues right off the bat.

As for SP's rank last year? That was after like 86 PA, and I don't know what to say, that doesn't factor into my evaluations at all. He's a top five prospect now.

You're also cherry picking Anthony's AAA stats to call the overall performance into question. He raked across two levels. I was deliberately looking at Anthony's overall sample to avoid the BABIP and sample size issues. Difference between AA and AAA is really not large enough to disambiguate them.
 

Fishy1

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Anyways, you're definitely right that they have to evaluate case by case. Let's drop this tangent, we're all excited for these guys and I (obviously) can't wait to see what they do.
 

JM3

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Is that true? Like, I know people have said that a lot, but I haven't actually ever seen any evidence presented. Seems like guys would be better prepared than ever, if anything, given the attention and preparation they get in the minors nowadays.

And anecdotally it seems like guys with good patience translate pretty well. Casas and Abreu were both wrc+ of about 125 and they've approximated that in the big leagues right off the bat.

As for SP's rank last year? That was after like 86 PA, and I don't know what to say, that doesn't factor into my evaluations at all. He's a top five prospect now.

You're also cherry picking Anthony's AAA stats to call the overall performance into question. He raked across two levels. I was deliberately looking at Anthony's overall sample to avoid the BABIP and sample size issues. Difference between AA and AAA is really not large enough to disambiguate them.
I have seen enough people whose opinions I respect (including the SP guys) voice that opinion that I tend to believe it's true. Even if it may be overstated. Regardless, though, there are reasons that projections are not completely accurate & will never be completely accurate, no matter how good they get, & it's because baseball players are humans.

I don't think I'm calling Roman's performance into question? I doubt there are too many people who have followed Roman harder or rooted for him harder from the beginning than I have. I'm just saying there's no guarantee based on his results that his career will be best served by starting the year in MLB. & statistics by themselves cannot answer that question.

& yeah, I was just looking at some unrelated stuff & felt the need to take a dig at SP lol

This was my 1st top 20 ever with the SP rankings in parens...

1) Mayer (1)
2) Perales (8)
3) Bleis (2)
4) Anthony (6)
5) YORDANNY (N/A)
6) Yorke (4)
7) Rafaela (3)
8) Wikelman (12)
9) Romero (7)
10) Guerrero (25)
11) Bonaci (17)
12) Blaze (16)
13) Drohan (5)
14) YOEILIN (41)
15) Meidroth (23)
16) JOHANFRAN (33)
17) Paulino (11)
18) Dobbins (N/A)
19) Valdez (10)
20) Mata (9)
Some day I hope YORDANNY proves me right lol
 

JM3

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This has been something I've been kicking around in my head off & on for a couple days that I'm sure has probably been posited somewhere but I have no clue...

... MLB should change the way they use luxury tax money. To the extent they use it for revenue sharing to put money directly in team's pockets, they shouldn't.

There should be a 2-week or so quiet period after the season, & then there should be a free agency bonus window that lasts until let's say December 30th at midnight Eastern. If we're going to normalize a month of Christmas we should normalize b2b NYE.

Anyway, during the bonus window, those luxury tax funds will be used to fund a certain percentage of a player's contract. The higher a team's net profit, the lower the bonus % is. Not 100% sure net profit is the best metric, but I think it's better than revenue & I'm too lazy to fully work this out, yet.

For example, maybe the Yankees' bonus % is the minimum & is like 10%, so if they pay Juan Soto $500m, they're paying $450m & $50m is getting paid from this bonus fund. But if the Rays pay Juan Soto $500m, maybe they're all the way up at the 40% tier & they're paying $300m & $200m is paid from the bonus pool.

There may need to be a cap on the amount of money that can go toward an individual signing, & that would need to be worked out along with the relative amounts of money available for this program but I just want to put this out there before I do hours of math.

Anyway, this would serve many functions:

1) Teams only get revenue sharing if they're signing players during the bonus window, so they are fully incentived to actually spend the money & can't just pocket it & have garbage payrolls.

2) It would make smaller market teams more competitive for exciting players.

3) It would really disincentive both players & teams from waiting until after the new year to get deals done. They'd still be allowed, but both sides lose the benefit of the bonus system.

4) This would turn MLB free agency into much more of an event than the current set up.

This is definitely a pro-player proposal. It incentives more teams to want to spend money & allows them to figure out where they will be spending their next season sooner. That certainty & consistency of an off season routine should limit injuries to some extent.

It is also a pro-owner proposition as it should grow the overall pie by adding excitement to the free agency window & get more eyes on their players in the off season, as well as allow teams to market around their new players sooner.

I'm sure there are a bunch of other loopholes that would need to be sorted like you have to pay back the prorated bonus if you trade the player to a team with a lower bonus % within 2 years or something.

Another option is to have a slightly higher % that goes say through the winter meetings & then a slightly lower one from then until the NYEE deadline.

Most importantly the math & methodology need to be impeccable. But yeah. That's my proposal.
Bumping this since the boring off season is a topic of conversation again & I still think it's a fun idea if they can figure out the logistics. I also think you should be able to add your own people to the 60-day during the off season, but not newly acquired people (so in the Red Sox scenario they could add Murphy any time after the new league year opens, & Sandoval they would have to wait until Spring Training).
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Bumping this since the boring off season is a topic of conversation again & I still think it's a fun idea if they can figure out the logistics. I also think you should be able to add your own people to the 60-day during the off season, but not newly acquired people (so in the Red Sox scenario they could add Murphy any time after the new league year opens, & Sandoval they would have to wait until Spring Training).
That makes way too much sense for it to ever be implemented.
 

mwonow

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Put a per-player cap on the bonus (say, $100M or $150M) and I'm in. Additional bonus - with a cap on the bonus, smaller market teams would be incented to offer shorter but richer contracts, giving the players a chance to move again if they don't like the situation, and the league an opportunity to have more stars in each year's free agent pool.