Well this is a refreshing thread. I can't seem to figure out the ignore feature. I guess it's my fate to be pulled into a lot of bad idea debates.
2024-2025 MiLB Offseason
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
After his second TJ his release point on his 4 seamer changed. Horizontal from -.85 to -1.2 vertical 5.85 to 5.68. These are for the regular season in '24 where it averaged 16.7 inches of induced rise and a 17% whiff rate. In the playoffs the 4 seamer averaged 18.5 inches of induced rise and a 29% whiff rate. I couldn't find numbers that broke out his 4 seam release point for the playoffs.
What this could indicate is
1. He can dial it up for a short period of time.
2. Longer time from TJ and is getting back to old self
3. Figured something out on how to throw it with the arm he has now.
Either way it will be interesting to see how working on it over the offseason helps. What his 4 seamer looks like in ST should tell us a lot.
I've heard chatter about Wong wearing down over the course of the season, which seems to be reflected in his OPS by month along with games per month: .959 (18), .755 (21), .885 (18), .654 (22), .661 (23), .700 (22). I haven't been able to find defensive stats by month, but it would interesting if Wong was simply bad all year or if he experienced a similar nosedive (and some of those games he was not catching).
Anecdotally, Wong was in the midst of a 13 game hit streak when he went on paternity leave on June 24th. His stats for June were fantastic: .323/.417/.478 and were terrible in July: .211/.286/.368.
Finally, Wong crushed lefties, with a .877 OPS, so that might be one way to begin to divide games between him and the other catcher. I'm not sure if Narvaez has strong splits, but I think Wong showed enough last year to be 1/2 of the rotation and hopefully he performs better with a bit more time off.
See this is why having kids is a terrible idea. All kidding aside I hadn't seen this. I wonder if an infant sleep pattern might have had something to do it. It was his first which is a magical time, but you don't get a ton of sleep those first few weeks.
When my wife and I had twins, both my offensive and defensive stats tanked for several months.
And here are Narvaez's MILB splits: .842 OPS against LHP last year and .750 against RHP. In 2023, it was .868 against LHP and .731 against RHP. Weird numbers against LHP in 2022: .526 and .754 against RHP.
So he seems to not have a massive split and could be helpful in tandem with Wong.
I’m not arguing Narvaez is currently a great hitter, just that he doesn’t have a huge split, unlike Wong.
Buhler talked to Buster Olney (podcast) about how he didn't feel right until a start in September against Atlanta. IIRC he said his fingers weren't feeling normal, or something in his hand, which sounded like an aftereffect of the surgery? Anyway, he regained his sensations and mechanics around then, according to him. Which is why I'm bullish on the postseason version being who he is this year.
I wonder if that tandem might see Narvaez behind the plate vs. LHP with Wong in the lineup at 1B/3B/DH.
If we get that Beuhler for the whole year, we could be looking at a top 5 rotation with depth. Unimaginable 2 years ago.
Yes, JM3 has long been a jewel and blessing for SoSHers. In addition, it is always fun to hope and project the youngsters. Welcome.
Thanks, I've been enlightened now. The problem was I went looking for the option re one of the Dopes, who I guess are immune.
Heh two years ago when the Yankees "won the offseason" by landing Carlos Rodon. No disrespect, he's OK, but yeah there wasn't a clear pathway even if the Sox went looking for one. Luckily the team's approach is shifting in a good buyers' market.
Yes, because over here we can have rational discussions without the doomcasting.
I assume most of this has been covered on the Main Board, but haven't had time to skim lately so will post a little Tweet dump here...
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1878166921113432310
View: https://twitter.com/MacCerullo/status/1878149967111397635
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1878145098292281458
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1878106115243696332
View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1878250986550038817
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1878166921113432310
View: https://twitter.com/MacCerullo/status/1878149967111397635
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1878145098292281458
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1878106115243696332
View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1878250986550038817
Right. Not sure a wrc+ of 84 in the minors screams "hit tool."
Possible he recovers, though. He was really good through 2022.
Thanks @JM3 for all this. A few additional points:
*First and foremost, it is SO refreshing to be over here, I’ll call it “ The Bright Side”. It seems like more and more of the thoughtful posters who are both informed and considerate are following your lead. It’s great to see posters that I respect a bunch crossing this path to talk about baseball.
*It is hard to not get VERY excited seeing that small clip of RA an KC. Two really exciting prospects who made really crazy rises thru the system the last 12-18 months. It’s crazy to think that Mayer, Mata and Bleis were more talked about than those 2 less than 2 yrs ago. ( Add Grissom to that list, before he got here)
*it seems like Grandal, Cahna and one of Yates, Roberson or Estevez seem like most natural adds to round out the roster.
* Appreciate you all.
Heh if this is the Bright Side... do any of you read Pete Abe? I'm kind of leaning toward not registering a click. He has become the unofficial GM of the SPEND NOW! crowd. I'll acknowledge that that crowd also wants the Sox to win, just by doing a bunch of things that looks good for 2025 and blows up the rest of the decade.
Also this may be too much even here but I have this fantasy that healthy Yoshida hits lefties OK.
Also this may be too much even here but I have this fantasy that healthy Yoshida hits lefties OK.
I take him with a grain of salt. The news I did read from him today that was reporting had to do with Devers. He said most years Raffy lays low in the DR, then reports to ST a couple days before the date to do so. This year he made a trip to Boston to work out w/ conditioning team at Fenway. He will then go to Florida a couple weeks earlier than the past to work with new IF instructor. PA believes that this is taking him out of his comfort zone, knowing that if he wants to be teams 3B, he has to put in the work (paraphrasing a bit, but that’s the jist)
Healthy Yoshida does hit lefties okay. He's showed us this every time he's been healthy.
It's been a fun year since I moved all my posting to this forum. It's really cool that more & more people are joining.
The nice thing is, we can still root for good things from all 4 of those other guys, too.
Canha seems pretty cooked. Grandal & a high leverage reliever works for me, though.
It's going to be an enjoyable 2025.
I don't Globe, nor really care about any opinions he has. He's fine for news stuff, though.
Yoshida is so interesting because he is genuinely a poor roster fit but I’m also positive he’s got a 130 wRC+ season in him. A middle of the lineup bat.
It’s a challenging situation.
Really going to be tough to evaluate him in the immediate aftermath of a labrum tear. Upshot is I don't know enough to say equivocally that he won't be the same player but they are often career killers for pitchers, and it sometimes takes hitters a while to recover too. Given that he's headed into his 30's, by the time he starts to get his groove back as a hitter, he might be starting to decline physically (and Yoshida already isn't exactly an athletic specimen).
I'm feeling kind of grim about his potential here, but I understand why others think he might have a great season in him.
Totally fair. Do we know exactly when he suffered the tear though? My understanding is he played with it through a significant part of the season. So we kind of have a good understanding of what the downside of the injury is.
Regardless, it’s certainly a wrinkle that makes it even more challenging to move him if that is the direction they want to go.
It does seem like there is really doubt he’ll be ready for opening day. He has not yet begun to throw.
If he’s not ready for opening day, it may be a good thing to get Devers and Casas some at bats at DH to keep them fresh early in season since they both battled some injuries last year. This likely means Romy is on opening day roster along with Grissom and possibly Hamilton, unless Campbell simply has such a good spring that they can’t deny him a spot.
Dammit. This place used to be a refuge from endless Yoshida talk. That's what made it productive. If you've posted about him on the main board at least once, assume we have read it, understand your position and you don't need to say the same thing yet again.
Really not sure when the tear happened. He was better in the second half than the first, which makes things even more confusing. I'm hesitant to make a guess, just means my own calculus has there being a really wide range of possible outcomes for him next season.
I was simply speculating on what opening day roster may look like if Masa not ready. I like him as a bat, lots of contact, decent OBP, fewer SO’s. We need more of that to keep line moving. I’d love to see him go the other way at Fenway more as many good contact LHH do when they figure it out and go with the outside pitch.
I’ve shared enough bad takes over the offseason that I probably shouldn’t be posting here, but it’s fascinating to me that a lot the same people complaining about the lack of spending are the ones to complain most vocally about Story, Yoshida, and Giolito. It’s not my observation, but you can definitely argue that the players they’ve spent on have been “the problem” in recent years.
I’m not going to say anything else about that!
I’m not going to say anything else about that!
The “spending” complains IMO are misplaced. It’s more about the fact the team has been bad for a few years now. If this team goes to the ALCS, the spending narrative will certainly quiet down. It won’t go away, but it’ll be a much less toxic headspace for the fans.
Can we please refrain from any “spending” posts on this forum? Please? Like, don’t even say the word. We already get it. Thank you in advance.
Second. And this is the Minor League forum. Anyone want to talk about when we can expect Anthony, Grissom, and one of the Ps (JM3 is the expert here, but - Sandlin, maybe?) to make a difference on the big club?
I’ll defer to JM3 on this, but my guess would be we will see both Preister and Dobbins at some point and in some role in 2025. I saw Hunter Dobbins start a game for the Sea Dogs in early August before he got called up to AAA. Sitting in first row behind home plate, he looked the part of an MLB SP. Big guy, threw lots of strikes, repeatable delivery, swing and miss stuff. Not surprised they protected him from the Rule 5.. he likely would’ve been gone.
Are we leaving the extension talk to the new post on the big board? It's a fascinating topic and for now it's off and running there without too much negativity. Also it's a spending subject.
The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.
The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.