2024-2025 MiLB Offseason
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Narváez didn't get any more regular season action, but got into some post season games:
SoxProspects News: Fall/Winter Roundup: Narvaez shines in playoffs; Rivera sharp again
Also, of interest, Narváez threw out 8 of 14 runners trying to steal on him in the regular season (57.1%). His teammates threw out 8 of 28 (28.6%).
Enjoyed the Chris Martin era. Can't help but think we should have traded him & Kenley last deadline, but oh well.
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1876448458242146662
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1876448458242146662
Times I could find where Fishy claimed that KCamp was going to be a 5 WAR player this year - 0
(This is the closest I could find...& it refers to year 6 in a hypothetical)
(This is the closest I could find...& it refers to year 6 in a hypothetical)
Times JMOH has referenced Brad Komminsk (who is 63 years old) as a reason not to be excited about prospects - 4
He's a Dope. You can't actually expect him to be held to any kind of standards in this day and age.
To add substance: I think we will still see them add a bullpen piece, maybe a big one, maybe filler, but it also might not be until spring training starts and they can stash Sandoval on the 60 day IL.
I do not think the league values Abreu as much as many here do, and while I like the player, he was frankly pretty bad offensively in the second half of the season so I am not really all that surprised they haven't been able to find a real taker for him, as I think he is the current player on the 40 man they would most benefit from moving. I think spring training is going to be pretty awesome this year, with a lot of good battles at a lot of positions, and I am excited to see how it shakes out. I suspect that Mayer will begin the year in AAA, but I really think that both Anthony and Campbell have a real shot at the opening day roster if they show show out in Florida.
I honestly expect a big season from Grissom, though, so fitting everyone could be tough.
To add substance: I think we will still see them add a bullpen piece, maybe a big one, maybe filler, but it also might not be until spring training starts and they can stash Sandoval on the 60 day IL.
I do not think the league values Abreu as much as many here do, and while I like the player, he was frankly pretty bad offensively in the second half of the season so I am not really all that surprised they haven't been able to find a real taker for him, as I think he is the current player on the 40 man they would most benefit from moving. I think spring training is going to be pretty awesome this year, with a lot of good battles at a lot of positions, and I am excited to see how it shakes out. I suspect that Mayer will begin the year in AAA, but I really think that both Anthony and Campbell have a real shot at the opening day roster if they show show out in Florida.
I honestly expect a big season from Grissom, though, so fitting everyone could be tough.
It's a wild world out there. Sometimes when I make a post I think is cool like the Bregman one I'm like too bad I can't put this in front of more people... but 99% of the time I'm really glad to be away from there.
I think they still have a bit of fungible talent on the 40 & they could absorb another guy or two without any real issue. Agree they'll add one more reliever. Everything else seems ~possible in an 8D chess kind of way, but not that likely.
I'm not 100% sold on Abreu's long-term viability myself. But until the young guys force their way in or they make another acquisition, Abreu is probably more valuable to our defense at Fenway than to anyone else anywhere else.
At some point soon, hopefully that value proposition changes, but we aren't there, yet.
Agreed.
I would expect an approximately league average season with large error bars in either direction. But rich people problems are the best problems.
I was thinking about this a bit the other day when a kind person messaged me about the high % of content-filled posts I make...
... it's all noise to that type of person because they don't care to learn anything new about baseball even though it's constantly evolving & that's one of the funnest parts of following the sport.
So they make a refusal to know ball & abject misery & woe-is-me their whole brand, & anytime that gets challenged they double down rather than being willing to expand their worldview because they want other people to be just as miserable as them.
Random thought on comp picks - I think the "it doesn't matter if we give up a comp pick because we're getting one for Pivetta" line of thinking is weird.
It's like sorry I'm already getting a lambo, I don't need this yacht anymore. Or like I have this money in my 401(k), you can have the money in my bank account. It's not like now I am covered by 2 health insurance plans, so it doesn't hurt as much if I get rid of my first one. They are 2 unrelated things. Getting a comp pick after the 2nd round does not make your 2nd round pick less useful.
It's like sorry I'm already getting a lambo, I don't need this yacht anymore. Or like I have this money in my 401(k), you can have the money in my bank account. It's not like now I am covered by 2 health insurance plans, so it doesn't hurt as much if I get rid of my first one. They are 2 unrelated things. Getting a comp pick after the 2nd round does not make your 2nd round pick less useful.
Another way to look at it using round #s for approximation purpose for '25:
Red Sox draft allotment to start with: $10m & 20 picks
Added from getting a pick for Pivetta: $1.2m
Bottom line: $11.2m & 21 picks
Subtracted for signing a QO guy: $1.7m
New bottom line: $9.5m & 20 picks
Having the extra $1.2m doesn't really change the calculus on the $1.7m. I'm not saying it's a bad idea for certain players in certain circumstances, but it does not magically become free if we get a Pivetta comp pick.
Red Sox draft allotment to start with: $10m & 20 picks
Added from getting a pick for Pivetta: $1.2m
Bottom line: $11.2m & 21 picks
Subtracted for signing a QO guy: $1.7m
New bottom line: $9.5m & 20 picks
Having the extra $1.2m doesn't really change the calculus on the $1.7m. I'm not saying it's a bad idea for certain players in certain circumstances, but it does not magically become free if we get a Pivetta comp pick.
Yeah... it's much easier to commentate from the sidelines whenever I feel the urge rather than hang out in the muck.
I gave up. Fishy is somehow hanging in there, but I don't even see CR67dream posting much over there anymore.
Liberal use of ignore helps, but sadly some of the worst of it is people who can't be added to that list.
Instagram has more photos and IDs all the guys.
Casas (with beard) Grissom, Story and Anthony.
View: https://www.instagram.com/p/DEi5HUoR3JV/?img_index=14&igsh=MTJ2dTI4NXlhbGljag==
Yup. Apparently Wong & Hamilton were there in December & there may be another round coming up, too.
View: https://twitter.com/NESN/status/1876867145432227890
View: https://twitter.com/NESN/status/1876867145432227890
I'm a sucker for punishment. Or punishing. If only there were a phrase for that...
Each of my posts is worth 5 fWAR. Somebody said it once, there's a post somewhere...but I'm not gonna find it!
I won’t swear to it, but I’m pretty sure it was JMOH that I had a discussion with about not comparing prospect evals pre and post statcast. Even prospects 20 years ago we have no data for LD%, Hard Hit ball rates, barrel percentages, bat speed, launch angle, etc.. We just have so much more data now than we used to. It makes projecting guys so much easier.
Last edited:
Wow there is a whole world in here where people discuss the Red Sox with reasoned analysis, and not lets DFA Yoshida, and sign Bregman and Alonso, but their too cheap to do so? I think I've found my people. I agree with Fishy. JM3 your posts are always extremely infromative, and well thought out.
Reminds me of the line I heard attributed to Terry Pratchett, that all mushrooms are edible once...
Thank you, sir. I wish the Main Board could be that place but I was kind of forced to give up on that idea. I still really appreciate the people who fight the good fight in there, though, because I can't help myself but to still at least skim it.
& the Red Sox may in fact be cheap(er) now... but that's a really boring conversation to have over & over & over again. Also, the lack of humility so many posters have to think they have a fraction of the baseball knowledge as the front office is wild. Reasonable people can certainly disagree with any given move & may end up being right... but the more interesting part to me is the why... why did these really smart people think that was a good idea when I didn't & maybe still don't?
Idk life should be fun, following baseball should be fun. Rooting for a team that provided 4 World Series in the past 20 years & has a large # of really fun players & prospects who are a joy to root for should be a ton of fun.
The bolded is societal due to being in the infancy of social media. Its the death of expertise, where you have the guy at the end of the bar who has all the answers, now armed with a forum, and the ability to google confirmation biased "research" thinking he's smarter than (in this case) a front office with 100's of scouts, researchers , player development, analyst, etc...and feels the need to show everyone. I lurked on this board for over 20 years before posting because I thought I couldn't add anything. For me its the intersection of Baseball, statistical analysis, player development, and roster configuration, within budgetary and space constraints, that makes the puzzle so interesting. Also baseball has always been a big part of my life, and at my age (56) I'm probably not making a comeback.
Carlos Narvaez- is he 1/2 of the catcher tandem this year? He's performed well in the Venezuelan winter league, with a 1.118 OPS and 8/14 caught stealing. It is hard to extrapolate what that performance means, but it appears the league wide average OPS is .809. Notably, he appears to have improved significantly from his .714 OPS last year when he also gave up 24 steals with only 9 caught stealing.
Sox Prospects Profile:
Is he ready to handle MLB pitching?
Sox Prospects Profile:
Is he ready to handle MLB pitching?
The funny thing is, if you put any stock in Fangraphs projections, the Red Sox would be significantly better if they made Narváez the #1 & Wong the #2. Steamer projects Wong for a 90 wRC+, -4.6 offense & -3.6 defense in 369 PAs. They project Narváez for an 82 wRC+, -4.2 offense & 3.7 defense in 194 PAs.
If the season was to start today, he's definitely part of the catcher tandem. The Yankees catchers seem pretty advanced defensively & they made a pretty significant investment in him by trading Elmer. I think they're going to keep looking for the right upgrade at catcher, but to me it's kind of an open question whether they'd look to move Wong if they get a catcher 1 or if they do the simple thing & bump Narváez to Worcester.
In his very limited MLB cup of coffee Narváez had a 1.92 pop time compared to Wong's 1.95 (63rd percentile). Side note...Wong has the bluest hitting chart from a guy with a 110 wRC+ I've seen.
So yeah... wouldn't be surprised if it's actually Wong they're looking to replace & not Narváez unless they are seeing stuff they like this off season.
Could they be thinking Wong needs to play less to be more effective defensively, and are just trying to spell him with a strong defensive catcher?
Though I'm thinking maybe you use Wong to catch pitches that he can effectively see well. Like if stats shows he can hit specific pitches well, pair him defensively with pitchers who throw similar pitches and maybe he'll improve his framing.
I think you're over-estimating the work that side of the forum is willing to put in.
I think the main divide is between intellectually curious people & those who think they know enough to say the same 5 things over & over in a slightly different way & act like they're doing something productive.
Idk, I predicted the Red Sox would win 82 games last year & they won 81. Does that make me a "Polyanna" because that didn't make me miserable & I still enjoyed the baseball season?
Yes, I rate 260+ prospects & would be somewhat disappointed if they lost certain ones of them. Does that make me a prospect humper? Only figuratively...I still liked the Crochet trade.
I fell like catcher stats by pitcher should be more readily available. I am idly curious how our various pitchers have done with & without Wong. I might figure it out this weekend if I have some free time.
I think generally Wong isn't a good enough catcher to be your almost every day catcher, so the fact that they've felt like he has to be the last 2 years isn't great, but if they have another guy who's about as good, he may do better & the position as a whole may be stronger.