2023 Washington Nationals: "Juuust a bit outside..."

Scoops Bolling · Dec 14, 2022

RF would currently come down between Alex Call and Stone Garrett, with my guess being Call in RF and Garrett at DH (as Call is a solid defensive OF, whereas Garrett is not).

Sad Sam Jones · Dec 14, 2022

I feel sorrow for any fanbase that has to discuss the future potential of Alex Call in December. Maybe something really did click for him AAA last year and he's a late bloomer, but when I used to watch him in Akron he looked every bit the appropriate return for the carcass of Yonder Alonso.

LogansDad · Dec 14, 2022

Scoops Bolling said:
RF would currently come down between Alex Call and Stone Garrett, with my guess being Call in RF and Garrett at DH (as Call is a solid defensive OF, whereas Garrett is not).

I'm a big Stone Garrett fan, and would like to see him do well. No reason, really, just the story of a guy with that name toiling away in the minor leagues for a decade finally breaking though would be pretty cool.

simplicio · Dec 15, 2022

Doesn't Thad Ward need to be somewhere on that list?

jose melendez · Dec 15, 2022

Having the Nats as my number two team to the Sox is absolutely brutal right now. There's nothing to watch.

pedro1918 · Dec 15, 2022

jose melendez said:
Having the Nats as my number two team to the Sox is absolutely brutal right now. There's nothing to watch.

Same. But if you want to watch nothing live in person, the Nats pre-sale is ging on right now. I just got my tickets for August. Ugh.

Ale Xander · Dec 22, 2022

Nats claim Jeter Downs

Too bad he’s probably blocked by Garcia

E5 Yaz · Jan 2, 2023

JimRiceHOFer said:
Steve Cishek Retires after 13 year career

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/cishek-retires-after-pitching-for-nats-in-13th-mlb-season?fbclid=IwAR0TFLaT8aqn9ya_iDNzWkFhlmbJT4Cg3pvMgL3Qfrc7X0ghjX4MA2lCNLw

Cishek, 36, was one of the sport’s most consistent and durable relievers over a lengthy career spent pitching for eight different organizations. He finished with a strong 2.98 ERA and 1.200 WHIP, making 737 big league appearances, earning a save in 133 of them.

A fifth-round pick of the Marlins in 2007, Cishek spent six years in Miami, then later pitched for the Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, White Sox and Angels before coming to D.C.

Falmouth's own

Dim13 · Jan 2, 2023

The Nats sure do love those ex-Sox. They sign Michael Chavis to a MiL deal.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2533352/report-nationals-michael-chavis-agree-to-minors-deal

mikeot · Jan 2, 2023

Rebonded with my late dad through Nats games from the team's inception. Totally invested fan now. Was at the 2012 playoff loss nutkick, still can't believe they won it all in '19 (too late for Dad, who passed the previous year), maybe because the pandemic elminated a celebratory season to follow. Waiting for the new ownership and what transpires next overall. Right now it would seem to take a miracle to get them out of the bottom of the division.

jon abbey · Jan 3, 2023

He will be their starting 1B, he is a terrible OF.

Petey Bienel · Jan 7, 2023

I think Garrett is penciled in on most depth charts as the LF, but I think Smith (or perhaps Thomas with Meneses in right) gets some time out there. Dom says he signed to play 1st, but Martinez has said before the signing that he liked Meneses at 1st. Adams is on a minor league contract with a spring invite, so it might be a while before he's called up. I suspect that if Kieboom is healthy he's given 1st dibs on 3rd base and that the team works out some sort of rotation among Garrett, Meneses, Smith, and Candelario among DH, 1st and left. Candelario is a pump and dump signing they hope to trade at the deadline, so I imagine he's a regular between 3 positions (1st/3rd when Kieboom sits/DH). With Robles's bat being such a liability against righties, I wonder if Thomas gets some time there in sort of an offense first then defense sub alignment.

Rainey of course starts the year on the 60 day IL due to his TJS on 8/3/22. I'd be very surprised if they used the top pick in rule 5 on Thad Ward and he didn't find a way onto the roster. May mean Mason Thompson doesn't start the year on the 26 man roster, or Doolittle has to wait to be called up (he's also not on the 40 man roster). Cory Abbott may be on the shuttle, too. Perhaps they keep him stretched out in Rochester given the presence of Espino / Erasmo / Ward on the active roster, but he could break camp if any of the rotation is hurt.

Longish comments on the roster, but they main reason I stopped by is a couple of thoughts on how the Sox managed their home grown stars vs. the Nats since the 2018-19 world serieses (that's the plural, right?

). It's cringe-worthy to group an established team with a prolonged stretch of success since '67 and 4 World Series wins plus a few ALCS runs the past 2 decades with the Expos transplants, but Jon Couture's commentary on the Devers signing (https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/01/05/rafael-devers-red-sox-contract-details-commentary/ ) hit a nerve with me, particularly the last third of it ("There's a Huge Value in a Reset").

To me, there's a lot of comparisons, starting with both basically being bottom-dwellers in their divisions since their world series wins. Also:
- home grown, big hall HoF candidates (or at least consistent WAR leaders) traded or allowed to walk (Betts, Bogaerts, Rendon, Turner, Soto, plus Harper the year before the WS). Benintendi and Vazquez were below that level, but pretty good home grown players not retained.
- Sale / Strasburg tying up money while providing not that many innings post-WS.
- big declines in TV audience and declines at the ballpark with the start of an alienated fanbase.
- waiting for Mayer to backfill an MI slot while the Nats wait for Brady House.

The comparison can be pushed way too far and of course breaks down. The Sox still are spending to bring in Story, Yoshida, Jansen, etc... and overall have a much more competitive roster. But as the Couture article points out, the Sox found a way to keep the last, home grown potential HoF guy this week in Devers. The guy kids identify with and the "jersey guy." The Sox are not stripping all the way down even if they have some pretty tough divisional opponents they'd have to climb over. As Couture puts it:

At some point, no matter how sports-rabid your fanbase is, you have to give them a jersey player. Signing big free agents is great, but there simply has to be someone too good to let walk.

There's still an "our guy" to root for and identify with. It's a pretty decisive difference from the Nats approach, which is basically we'll take your money for the next 2-4 years while you wait on Wood and Green. I don't quibble with the return on Soto and think the move had to be done and was done well. But man are the Nats hard to stay interested in. Kudos to FSG for keeping trying to bridge to the next crop of home grown talent.

Were the Nats to have kept any of the "jersey guys," I'd think it probably could have / should have been Turner. I'm not giving up on Josiah Gray, but there's a decent chance that the only >2 WAR multi-year player they got out of the Scherzer / Turner deal is Keibert Ruiz. Perhaps that's just a rear-view mirror look at it, but that one seems awful light for a return.

wonderland · Jan 9, 2023

The Nats did keep Strasburg as the home grown guy. Unfortunately, it looks like the WS win shot his and Corbin’s arm which changed the trajectory of things with Turner and Soto.

Ale Xander · Feb 13, 2023

Ted Lerner dies at 97 from pneumonia. Gotta think the kids sell asap?

B H Kim · Feb 13, 2023

Ale Xander said:
Ted Lerner dies at 97 from pneumonia. Gotta think the kids sell asap?

I doubt they sell before the litigation with the Orioles over MASN is resolved. The leading candidate to buy the team is a group that includes Ted Leonsis, who owns another RSN in the DC market and, as of a few weeks ago, reports were that the Lerners were not expected to sell this year because of the uncertainty over team valuations due to the litigation.

Petey Bienel · Mar 18, 2023

With Cade Cavalli out for the season due to Tommy John Surgery, it looks like the Nats are going to insert Chad Kuhl as their 5th starter, per multiple reports. Too bad. Cavalli looked very good in his few appearances this spring. MLTR runs through other options, like trying to stretch out Wily Peralta turning to Joan Adon or Cory Abbott, or even signing old friend Anibal Sanchez again.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/cade-cavalli-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html

Petey Bienel · Mar 24, 2023

FWIW, there are at least 4 candidates for the 60 day IL - Cavalli, Rainey, Strasburg, and Victor Arano.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/21/washington-nationals-hobie-harris/ . That leaves spots for 4 NRIs.

Kuhl will get one spot. Anthony Banda would need a spot if they decide to break camp with one lefty.

jon abbey · May 5, 2023

1-6 start for NatsTown, a surprising 12-12 since.

Ale Xander · Jun 3, 2023

Strasburg with severe nerve damage per ESPN (and everyone else)
Have to figure career is over

Petey Bienel · Jul 8, 2023

Fangraphs' Effectively Wild podcast for 7/7 discusses a weird record the Nats are contending for. Nats have been surprisingly good on the road and just awful at home. By a couple of measures, they may in worst place. The difference the Nats overall winning % and their road winning % is close to the worst all time. 1994 Cubs are slightly worse. The Nats have a greater % of their wins on the road (if i understand the measure). The discussion starts at 1:09:55 of the podcast, a little over 6 minutes.

Trade season has started, which has been the most interesting time for Nats fans since 2021. The level of talent isn't a shadow of what was moved recently, but they do have some players who might generate interest, starting with Jeimer Candelario and Lane Thomas, plus two relievers in Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, and a utility infielder in Ildemaro Vargas. There are a few more vets that they would like to move, but it's harder to think there will be much interest - Corey Dickerson, Dom Smith, and Trevor Williams. I don't take seriously the talk about Patrick Corbin but some beat writers and others connected to the team mention his name as somebody they are trying to move.

Candelario is hitting like his good 2021 (and 2020) with a little less OBP and bit more pop. still a doubles machine but more homers. He's also been having a good year defensively at 3rd. 2.5 fWAR, which leads NL 3rd basemen. A bit of a surprise he wasn't the All Star selection instead of Josiah Gray. He signed pretty cheaply ($5 million with no options), so it would take a serious injury for him not to be moved. I'd be shocked by a last minute extension because there's some talent in the minors that should help by 2025 (Alu, Lipscomb, House).

Thomas is having some luck (.375 BABIP) but .301 / .348 / .501 with 14 homers has some fans and writers wondering if he is piece to keep to add to. 134 OPS+. Washington Post's Jesse Dougherty wrote the Rizzo is pretty proud of his Jon Lester for Lane Thomas trade back in 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/29/lane-thomas-nationals-trade/ He's under team control through 2025, so that's another sort of value for a team that doesn't want to pay free agents but is willing to pay arbitration salaries.

Finnegan's overall numbers are poisoned by his first week this season when he was shelled twice by the Braves and the Rays. since 4/7, he has a 1.87 ERA and a 3.17 FIP over 33.2 innings, with 8.82 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9. Hard thrower, turning 32 in september, with 2 years of team control left. Has been shifted back to set up. Harvey has put things together as a reliever who has been staying healthy. Throws 99 with a 4 pitch mix. Added a slider this year, he's less reliant on his fastball than Finnegan. He doesn't turn 29 until December, and has 2 years of team control (sound familiar?). Has been moved to closer. 3.29 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 10.33 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, over 37 appearances and 38.1 IP. Caveat would be he's already matched his MiLB + MLB inning total from last year, which was his most since he still started in the O's system in 2019. I suppose the Nats will listen to offers on both, but the price on Harvey should be higher.

Vargas is 31, a multi-position neutral defender who is having pretty good year offensively (.328 wOBA, .349 xwOBA, .286 / .318 / .440). Became the Nats starting 3rd baseman after the Soto trade last year, steadying the defense, has played short, second, and left for the Nats. He could probably steady an infield position with a bat not much worse than league average as a regular. TBH I sort of wonder if a guy like him would be a fit for the Red Sox if they continue to hang around the fringe of the wild card. He's not a stud, but probably a cheap upgrade at 2nd.

Corey Dickerson was hurt at the start of the year and has been used in a left field platoon. Average is back but his power hasn't shown up. he's on a $2.2 million 1 year deal. Dom Smith has another year of team control. For a while this year, his power rivaled Pete Gray, but his ISO is now up to .071. Has become a nice fielder who has saved a lot of errant throws from CJ Abrams and others. Williams has been providing 5 innings a start with a 4.45 ERA. He's failed to go 5 innings four times in 18 starts, and has given up as many as 5 runs twice. He was a very effective reliever last year, but the reason he signed with the Nats was he wanted to start. He signed for 2 years, $13 million. I think he's more the type of starter a contender would try to upgrade from than bring in as an upgrade, but he could potentially lengthen a bullpen down the stretch. Corbin is probably not movable even if a team were looking for innings or saw him as a reliever due to his contract. He's owed something like $37 million more than Williams, so I just don't see him as movable even if a team could make him middling.

canderson · Aug 24, 2023

Strasburg is retiring September 9. Was told this by a person high up with their AA affiliate.

loshjott · Aug 24, 2023

Some discussion in the August news thread.

LoLsapien · Sep 1, 2023

Sorry if this was covered in the other thread, but do the nats get salary cap relief from Strasburg's retirement? I know they will pay his salary in full but it wasn't clear to me the cap implications.

B H Kim · Sep 8, 2023

Rough week for the Nats. Their head of international scouting quit, they canned at least ten scouts, the Strasburg retirement press conference has been cancelled (because it appears that the team may have second thoughts on paying him for his entire contract), and there’s an escaped accused murderer running around DC with a giant Nationals logo tattooed on his throat.

Dim13 · Sep 22, 2023

Doo retires.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/sean-doolittle-announces-retirement-from-baseball/

2023 Washington Nationals: "Juuust a bit outside..."

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