They should vote fewer into the Hall of Fame. If a group of players is less important than they used to be, then they're less deserving of being inducted.
2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
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Or they're still just as important relative to their contemporaries, if not to similar players from a bygone era, so they're just as deserving? Pitching has completely changed. If Walter Johnson showed up now and had to throw max effort on every pitch, what would he look like? Because you can't sneak 88 or 92 by anyone now, not without tremendous command.
So we should retroactively put the best relief pitchers from the 20s and 30s into the Hall of Fame because they were really good compared to their contemporaries? Even though they weren't actually important for winning games? If the game changes so that a role becomes less important for winning games, then that role should be less celebrated by the Hall of Fame.
Well I just don't agree that starting pitchers are less important. Maybe the rise in reliance on relievers has elevated their role and in a zero-sum view you'd diminish SP a bit, but it sure seems like the teams with the best starting pitching are still the only ones with a clear chance to win. Really we have gone from needing X number of quality pitches to win a game, nearly all of which were delivered by the starter, to needing 1.5x or 2x the number to be delivered by the starter and the pen.
It's not a zero-sum view. The sum is the same as it's always been, 9 innings. If starters are pitching only 5 of those 9 rather than the 7 of 9 they did 15-20 years ago, then their importance to winning the game has been diminished by 2/9. It would be perfectly reasonable for at least 2/9 fewer to make it into the Hall of Fame.
Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw are no doubt HOFers. I think Wainwright has a case, but only if he can get to at least 200 wins which seems in jeopardy. After that, what active pitchers could be HOF? Sale? Cole? After those guys, it gets really hard to see anyone on that path.
Hamels has a case, he's up to 58 bWAR, pretty close to the threshold for HOF (which in my mind is around 60?). Cole and Nola have a chance based on their age. Sale was for sure on the right trajectory before he got hurt.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_active.shtml
I don't know. Scherzer wasn't clearly "on the path" to a HOF career when he was 27-28, and 28 is when he really broke out. There are a ton of young pitchers who 10-12 years from now might be talked about as potential or sure-fire HOFers. Alcantara, Ohtani, Cease, Manoah, Fried, Gallen (all in the top 10 in pitcher bWAR last year), Urias, McClanahan, Bieber, Webb, Burnes, Gilbert, Valdez... just to name a bunch of under-30 guys who have been quite good the last couple years. Any of them (or none of them) could put together HOF-caliber careers.
As long as starting pitchers get paid Top Dollar that should mean the analytics means they are worth Top Dollar and their HoF chances should reflect that.
Tautology? Perhaps, but if you trust the analytics people . . . .
Tautology? Perhaps, but if you trust the analytics people . . . .
I doubt anyone in the 2023 Red Sox rotation needs to worry about the Hall of Fame anytime soon.
Anyway, here's the matchups for the weekend:
Pivetta-Peralta
Whitlock-Miley
Bello-Burnes
Bello just doesn't have much luck so far, does he? Career .420 BABIP, had to deal with the nasty rain/cold last time, and now he gets Burnes.
Anyway, here's the matchups for the weekend:
Pivetta-Peralta
Whitlock-Miley
Bello-Burnes
Bello just doesn't have much luck so far, does he? Career .420 BABIP, had to deal with the nasty rain/cold last time, and now he gets Burnes.
Changing it to career WAR leaders, only four pitchers have gotten 63 WAR and aren't in the Hall of Fame.
Schilling is left out because he's an a-hole, but still has a chance.
I don't know anything about McCormick, Tiant or Brown.
Under 63 WAR, not being in seems commonplace, but there are a lot until about 50 WAR.
Almost all Hall of Fame pitchers so far are starters, but there's probably a separate WAR requirement for relievers going forward.
There are a bunch of active starters with enough WAR, but many of them will be short in traditional categories like wins that used to determine successful candidates.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml
EDIT: McCormick was born before the civil war, so everyone probably discounts his 76 WAR.
Tiant not getting in is a bit of a travesty.
Kevin Brown owes all of his WAR to consistently being good, but never great. He probably should get in, but plenty of "very good" hitters aren't of the HoF...
Also note, I missed a guy named Clemons at first, because he's so close to to the top of the list.
Never heard of him.
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The two big what-ifs for Louie are the 1968 Cy Young and the 1975 World Series. The former he ran into Denny McLain's only great season, and by WAR he outperformed McLain, including a FIP of 2.04 to McLain/s 2.53, but people couldn't say no to 30 wins. The latter, if the Sox win over the Big Red Machine, then I think the folk-hero part goes to another gear and gets him a Papi-esque pathway to the Hall. Numbers or narrative. He had some of each, but not quite enough. He topped out at 31% of the ballots back in his regular retired-player ballot days, and then got crowded out by guys with better counting stats. It's kind of stupid, but not outright insane.
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After Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello start this weekend in Milwaukee, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber will start the first two games at Camden Yards on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. After that, Cora said, it will “most likely” be Houck for Wednesday, but that could change if the Sox are short on bullpen arms after the next five days.
Pete Abe with his typically made-up, bitchy narrative about how Whitlock just undercut his starting role. Pete would be a terrible GM. Or Manager. Or reporter for that matter. If he's getting intel that they are going to move the guy with the worst results to the pen, regardless of what that guy's long term trajectory is, I am all ears. But really it's just more fan service for his misérables.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1649934913603350529?s=20
Brewers were apparently hitting .130 against sliders too, which makes the approach even more baffling.
2 very bad starts and 1very good so far for Whitlock.
Brewers were apparently hitting .130 against sliders too, which makes the approach even more baffling.
2 very bad starts and 1very good so far for Whitlock.
As a general question that might fit here best - have we noticed any difference in the catchers and game-calling?
(I would assume Tek has his fingers all over that.)
(I would assume Tek has his fingers all over that.)
I don't know about game calling but there has been a difference in the results based on catcher.
Team record:
Wong starts = 9-5
McGuire starts = 3-6
Stats by catcher:
Wong = 123 IP, 522 PA, 4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .245/.315/.411/.726, 4 for 8 caught stealing
McGuire = 80 IP, 363 PA, 6.64 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .267/.351/.483/.833, 1 for 17 caught stealing
Wong has caught all of Houck's starts, all of Whitlock's starts, all of Crawford's starts, two of Pivetta's, one of Bello's, one of Kluber's, and one of Sale's. The Kluber and Sale starts were each the best outings for those guys, though that could just be coincidence. Could account for a good bit of the difference in the stats though.
Six man rotation has been resolved for the time being. Bello optioned to Worcester, reliever Brennan Bernadino called up.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1650574769060733002
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1650574769060733002
It's odd. I mean, you can't have a bullpen of guys who are entirely stretched out as long-men/starters, which they seem to nominally have in Crawford and Winckowski right now. . .so sending Bello down gives him a regular rotation turn as a starter and keeps him fully stretched out, in exchange for a LHP who can go back to back days.
It would make sense if there were a lot of RH heavy lineups coming up.
Or if Bernardino had any track record of being good at the ML level.
Or if this is a fish-or-cut-bait pass through the rotation where someone goes into the pen at the end of it and Bello comes back up.
Good point. I need to internalize these new option rules.
Well - three passes then, or until Kluber's 80 MPH arm feels "fatigued."
Is this the Paxton move? Bernardino gets sent down and Paxton activated to get a start. Then Boston brings back up Bello with their full set of pitchers healthy and a more defined decision on who gets “sent down”?
15 days does coincide with the expiration of Paxton's rehab assignment. Kluber gets a couple more starts and if he hasn't shown signs of turning things around, Paxton takes his spot. And if Paxton isn't ready for whatever reason, maybe then Bello gets another shot.
Honestly though, I think this move is about having six guys for five spots and Bello being the least experienced and optionable made him the odd man out. Frankly I think it says more about Houck convincing management that he belongs in the rotation than about Bello's abilities.
I wonder if they are considering rotating Bello/Winck/Crawford to AAA for spells, keep all three stretched out, two in Boston, and one in Worcester to get a couple low-pressure turns before coming back? Or if it's really just a sign that Bello came back too quickly and as a guy who's just getting his feet wet, maybe they should take advantage of the logjam and slow down his progress.
Why would they rotate Winck and Crawford? They've pretty much settled in and have been playing an important role in the team's recent success. There's no need to mess with that. And while either of them are down and Bello's up, what is his role? I think they let the Paxton/Kluber situations play out and leave Bello where he is, getting regular starts and bring him back up when they know exactly what the team's rotation needs are.
IIRC, sending Bello down was the exact move many freaked out about several months ago. But it seems to me that it gives them a few more looks at Kluber, another lefty in the pen, and perhaps the ability for Bello to get a few good games and some confidence down in Worcester. It’s a long season, and he may be back in a few weeks, he will be needed eventually so I don’t think this is really a huge deal.
Exaclty, options are a tool that teams use for reasons other than demotion.
Bello pitched like crap after missing most of spring training and has options left, and for as bad as Kluber has been, I doubt the team's giving up on him that quickly. Letting Bello get more work and build up is the best option for everyone; if he'd been throwing lights out, that's one thing, but it's hard to argue that he deserves a rotation spot right now, particularly over Houck.
I'd agree, partially because of the presence of Crawford and Winckowski as emergency starters. It only potentially becomes a problem if they're overcommitting to a cooked Kluber, and so putting a "punt the season" chit on the scales. But we're not quite there yet.
It does make me wonder what would have happened if Bello had turned in a 7 inning 1 hit performance though.
Per Chris Cotillo, looks like Bello won't be down for long.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1650619292256182272
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1650619292256182272
Paxton's line Tuesday in Worcester: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 82 pitches.
Two of his ERs were the result of the reliever giving up a bomb, so it wasn't quite as bad as it looks, but he gave up a 3-run shot on a knuckle curve. And those four walks aren't impressive. At this point, while he is healthy, his command seems like it might take time to recover, so the Sox' rotation roster crunch isn't imminent.
Two of his ERs were the result of the reliever giving up a bomb, so it wasn't quite as bad as it looks, but he gave up a 3-run shot on a knuckle curve. And those four walks aren't impressive. At this point, while he is healthy, his command seems like it might take time to recover, so the Sox' rotation roster crunch isn't imminent.
He's healthy. His return to full health was what you might be thinking of. I don't recall anyone saying what his walk % would be.
Fair. I’ll say he’s healthy when he makes back to back major league starts but YMMV.
Well, his return probably is. How long can they keep him down there if he's throwing 80+ pitches a start?
Yeah, I mean I have been bullish on his arm being healthy, but this is a good reminder that post-TJ guys don't just snap back to their best selves after a long layoff. HIs lifetime bb rate is 2.8/9, so he's not on either of the extremes when it comes to control. TBD
I believe the answer is May 9th. At that point, his rehab assignment expires and they have to figure out what to do with him.
"During his last rehab start he felt his forearm become tight. We are shutting him down for a week and will reevaluate him after "
The pending FA to be who has been working for years to pitch in the majors again, would have to agree to this.
We are over complicating this. If he is healthy, he will be activated and will be worked into the rotation. If he’s ineffective, he will be either moved to the pen or DFA’d.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1652024093636476928
Well shit.
EDIT: To add some context, Jeffrey Springs went on the IL with ulnar neuritis after leaving his start against the Sox a couple weeks ago and turned out to have a torn UCL. A happier outcome: Jordan Romano was put on the IL with ulnar neuritis back at the start of 2021 and missed just 10 days before returning, with no subsequent issues.
Well shit.
EDIT: To add some context, Jeffrey Springs went on the IL with ulnar neuritis after leaving his start against the Sox a couple weeks ago and turned out to have a torn UCL. A happier outcome: Jordan Romano was put on the IL with ulnar neuritis back at the start of 2021 and missed just 10 days before returning, with no subsequent issues.
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