2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
It looks like Bello hasn't pitched in a week? Loading MiLB box scores is not fun. Anyway I suspect he could slide right into Whitlock's turn Saturday.
Update -- OK, he hasn't pitched with Worcester since being sent down. His one AAA appearance was earlier this month. He's available.
Update -- OK, he hasn't pitched with Worcester since being sent down. His one AAA appearance was earlier this month. He's available.
Any commentary or analysis here on Bello’s start last night would be appreciated. I didn’t see it but his numbers look dece. Should he have gone another inning?
He tore a fingernail in the 4th, got some treatment and pitched the 5th, but was still bleeding. He probably would have kept going if not for that.
If it heals up, he should get one more shot before they have to decide on Paxton.
Today's line in Worcester for Paxton: 5.1 IP, 90 pitches, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 Ks.
I think his rehab is over. 65-25 strikes/balls, 72% in the zone. Control much better.
Another good start from Sale- leaving us hopeful for at least another 4 days.
What's the outlook for the rotation now? Still looks chaotic. No pitcher has really claimed a spot with sustained good pitching yet. Each guy has been up and down and inconsistent but also showing promise.
Whitlock is a question mark as far as health goes so that leaves Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello, Houck currently in the rotation with a decision soon to be made on Paxton. My feelings right now are to keep the rotation as is with Paxton functioning in the same role as Crawford and Winckowski..... I don't really know but it's a challenge to manage.
What's the outlook for the rotation now? Still looks chaotic. No pitcher has really claimed a spot with sustained good pitching yet. Each guy has been up and down and inconsistent but also showing promise.
Whitlock is a question mark as far as health goes so that leaves Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello, Houck currently in the rotation with a decision soon to be made on Paxton. My feelings right now are to keep the rotation as is with Paxton functioning in the same role as Crawford and Winckowski..... I don't really know but it's a challenge to manage.
I think this is what it will be. I don't think they'll want to mess with having Paxton come out of the bullpen.
Why not slide Wincowski or Crawford in to start Wednesday, pencil Paxton in on normal rest for Friday and have Pivetta as the closer this week...if Jansen isn't going to throw until Wednesday, i don't want to see a committee type approach. Let the others stay where they are as setup guys. And the only spot I want to see Brasier while he's still on the roster is low leverage/mopup duty.
Some follow up on this thought, from The Athletic today:
"Paxton has appeared in 137 regular season games since debuting in 2013 and served as a starter for all 137. But with a logjam in the rotation, the Red Sox tried to see how Paxton might pitch out of the bullpen. Two weeks ago, they had him come in after an opener in Triple-A Worcester, but the experiment flopped. Paxton allowed seven runs and recorded just two outs.
'It was weird,' he said. 'I didn’t know the routine so I wasn’t comfortable doing that and it’s something I haven’t done in 13 or 14 years, so it was just very foreign to me and a weird experience.'"
https://theathletic.com/4472313/2023/05/01/triston-casas-red-sox-notes/
Hm, with Jansen out the bullpen is going to get a bit thin, so I think they would likely leave Winck and Crawford in there? Fairly soon we will have Whitlock back and 7 starters for 5 spots, so as soon as this week we could find out who the first odd man out of the rotation will be. Paxton is the most expendable but can't relieve. Kluber and Sale are not for consideration either. That leaves Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta and Bello for two spots. If Houck's hold on a starters' spot isn't super strong, you could see them moving him to closer for a week, but I suspect they will drop Pivetta first, and then next week take stock of Whitlock. He doesn't have momentum as a rotation member like Houck does.
But! Houck might be on a short leash, if his last couple starts are any indication. He gave up just one line drive in his first three starts, then 6 vs Minnesota and 8 to Baltimore. He also had a season low 6 swinging strikes vs the Os, though he had his best 15 vs the Twins. Anyway, I think the Sox wanted to see how his stuff would play up as a starter, and we are starting to get some mixed messages, albeit SSS. Hopefully he dominates the Blow Jays and sticks in the rotation.
It’s a difficult decision to make. The team seems to see Whitlock and Houck as rotation arms now and in the future, and would be hesitant, I imagine, to hinder development by moving them back to the pen. My guess is Pivetta to the pen, and when Whitlock returns, a decision between him to the pen or Bello to Worcester. Later in the season I could see Kluber DFA and Whitlock or Bello back to the rotation, but that wouldn’t be unless he struggles for a decent amount of the season
Pivetta certainly looked the part of a bullpen arm in 2021 post season. I think his stuff would play in short stints and he seems to have the mentality for it.
We now have two-plus seasons suggesting that Pivetta at this point is what he is: a league-average pitcher with good stuff but poor command of it. Barring an improvement in the latter, this is probably his ceiling. Whether that plays up in relief is an open question, but given that he's 30 and hasn't shown any real signs of improvement or change, I don't think there's anything more to get out of him as a starter; he's a back-of-the-rotation arm, albeit one who's durable, which is acutely valuable for this roster. Even with that being the case, though, I'd much rather send Pivetta to the bullpen than Houck, who may just be a younger, harder-throwing Pivetta, but at least there's upside there that Pivetta no longer has. See if he can contribute in relief (though I think ultimately both are better suited to be relievers).
If they have the depth to support it, Pivetta should definitely have a shot at the bullpen. He's got one of the better curveballs in the game - 84th percentile in spin as well as being top 50ish in standard (BA, SLG, wOBA, Whiff%) and statcast (xBA, xSLG, xWOBA) numbers. Conversely, his fastball doesn't really fool anyone; it gets hit often (.282 BA) and hard (.540 SLG). If he could add some speed to his curveball and use it more often in shorter stints, I can really see his value going up in the bullpen.
I think they have to be considering moving Pivetta to the pen, where I agree he could be good. Maybe he picks up a mile or two velo in the pen, which might make a big difference for him.
With a Paxton return plausible in the next week or so, I wonder if they might run with something like this:
Starters: Sale, Houck, Bello, Paxton, Kluber
Long/Middle: Kutter, Winck, Pivetta
Back End: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Lefty 1, Brasier or Lefty 2.
This would give you 3 apparently pretty good long/mid options which, depending on context, you could go to in high leverage scenario as early as the 4th inning. When/if Whitlock comes back he could slot into a similar long/mid role, or start and bump Houck or Kluber into that role to give us 4 stretched out relievers available for multiple innings. If this staff is going to be even average I am thinking it is likely going to be based on unusual strength in relievers who can go 2-4 IPs, making up for a weaker group of starters.
With a Paxton return plausible in the next week or so, I wonder if they might run with something like this:
Starters: Sale, Houck, Bello, Paxton, Kluber
Long/Middle: Kutter, Winck, Pivetta
Back End: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Lefty 1, Brasier or Lefty 2.
This would give you 3 apparently pretty good long/mid options which, depending on context, you could go to in high leverage scenario as early as the 4th inning. When/if Whitlock comes back he could slot into a similar long/mid role, or start and bump Houck or Kluber into that role to give us 4 stretched out relievers available for multiple innings. If this staff is going to be even average I am thinking it is likely going to be based on unusual strength in relievers who can go 2-4 IPs, making up for a weaker group of starters.
Yea, I think Houck has made this pretty easy on them. The bullpen needs some help from a workload perspective and Houck can be that guy and be extremely good at it.
Despite the cutter and splitter, he just can’t see people more than a couple times. The sample size is there. He’s a reliever.
And he already was really good at it in that role last year. Era of 1.37 in the pen last year once they stopped yoyoing him between roles and committed to keeping him in the pen.
I’m not ready to give up on Houck as a starter, especially not in early May and in favor of Kluber, Paxton, or Pivetta. I like that they sent him back out there for the 6th. If they move him to the pen now, i have a hard time seeing him starting here again.
He has changed his pitch mix drastically and it has has zero impact in his ability to go through and order multiple times.
I think we are looking at fatigue, which is affecting his command, more than pitch mix at this point.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1653558029273427969?s=46
All true and concerning. Which is why his getting through a 1-2-3 6th last night on 12 pitches after seemingly giving up the game in the 5th left me irrationally exuberant. (It was the bottom of the order, but still).
I'm curious - there are certainly good relievers who didn't make it as starters, and starters tend to get hit the longer they go into games and the more tired they get. But I'm left wondering how unique Houck's situation is. He's top-shelf starter material then he pumpkins at what seems to be a fairly consistent point.
Can anyone think of any other pitchers that had Houck's issue? Consistent excellence then completely falling off the table?
A good start by Pivetta last night helped extend the recent streak. The starting rotation is still the achilles tendon for this team but the talent is clearly there. To me, Kluber and Pivetta are the least likely to turn into a top of the rotation "ace", but either of them could also put together a stretch of dominance that just happens to time out well during the playoffs or whenever. They're also both the most likely to be the achilles tendon to the achilles tendon of the starting pitching ( really need a different metaphor!).
I suspect that Whitlock is bullpen bound when he returns and Paxton will take Houck's spot, but I also can't see Paxton turning into an "ace" for the club... while it seems Houck could change one little thing and really be dominant consistently through 6-7 innings. I don't quite know what that is and the narrative on him being an "opener" and JUST an opener (or BP ace) is quickly getting to publication. That really leaves Sale (old and too many injuries to never get there, or still getting his timing back?) and Bello (too young still?) as the options to be viewed as the "ace".
Does the team really need one? They've been playing some seriously talented teams and other than Tampa, have more than been able to just compete. I'd still feel better if Sale or Bello could make 3 consistent 6+ inning starts and keep less than 3 runs off the boards.
I think going forward after Paxton gets called up:
Sale
Bello
Paxton
Kluber
Pivetta
with Crawford (assuming the injury isn't serious), Whitlock, Houck and Winchowski as long relief/bullpen ace types that can step in after 4, 5 innings or even earlier if things are looking dire. It's a pretty good situation even without an "ace"
I suspect that Whitlock is bullpen bound when he returns and Paxton will take Houck's spot, but I also can't see Paxton turning into an "ace" for the club... while it seems Houck could change one little thing and really be dominant consistently through 6-7 innings. I don't quite know what that is and the narrative on him being an "opener" and JUST an opener (or BP ace) is quickly getting to publication. That really leaves Sale (old and too many injuries to never get there, or still getting his timing back?) and Bello (too young still?) as the options to be viewed as the "ace".
Does the team really need one? They've been playing some seriously talented teams and other than Tampa, have more than been able to just compete. I'd still feel better if Sale or Bello could make 3 consistent 6+ inning starts and keep less than 3 runs off the boards.
I think going forward after Paxton gets called up:
Sale
Bello
Paxton
Kluber
Pivetta
with Crawford (assuming the injury isn't serious), Whitlock, Houck and Winchowski as long relief/bullpen ace types that can step in after 4, 5 innings or even earlier if things are looking dire. It's a pretty good situation even without an "ace"
Assuming you're responding to my post.... I didn't say that I WANT him back as much as I think that's where he'll be when he returns. There's only a need for 5 starters (the 6 man rotation isn't happening) and neither Sale nor Kluber are moving to the pen. I seriously doubt Paxton will be.... so that leaves Houck, Whitlock, Bello and Pivetta for 2 spots. Pivetta's biggest strength is that he can pitch 180+ innings at league average starter (maybe a tick better) so I don't see him turn into a reliever. So now you've got Bello (who's never been a reliever) and Whitlock and Houck (both of who have shown talent as relievers) remaining for the final spot. If they can be 2-3 inning type long reliever guys, I still don't think it'll hurt any long term expectations/developments for them as a starter. I still would like both those guys to be starters but I don't see how you can accomodate it right now.
Besides... they likely will continue to get starting opportunities through the year as injuries will happen.
A agree that’s what they want, but that means moving Pivetta (or someone else) to the pen, and it’s assuming the front office would choose Whitlock over Houck for the rotation. The front office has demonstrated they see Whitlock as a rotation member, but there’s still only 5 spots
Hi. Responding to you but really a general statement since I see it all over the site. He isn’t going to the pen. He’ll stay on IL or they will move someone else. Or go with 6-man.
I don’t disagree with what you posted in theory, but I really don’t see this FO moving him out of the rotation for a while. I actually think it’s more likely that Pivetta goes to the pen.
We've been talking for a month about how the Sox have this logjam and what maybe they should do, but even now it's not at all clear what route they will actually go. Cora's comments about Houck seemed to emphasize the need to keep him starting. They've said plenty about Whitlock in this regard too. Maybe they are thinking there will usually be one guy skipping starts for some reason and they'll only be forced into a single move. Maybe they prioritize using options to solve these issues, as they seem to be doing with the bullpen, which means Bello takes a few turns in Worcester. I still have no idea. My guess is Pivetta to the pen.
What is the leash on Kluber? It seems he doesn't have that much left in the tank? I guess in his career April has been his weakest month he'll probably get at least through May. At that point if he's still posting similar lines, do they consider making a move on him? He's never been a reliever and doesn't really excite me there anyway. So I'm guessing if they were done with him, he would be released and that in itself sort of buys him more time since I assume the Sox want his depth in case another starter gets hurt. I also think he has some leash based on name/reputation/recent FA signing, but hard for me to say sending Bello down and starting Kluber instead is putting your best foot forward for 2023.
It's a one year deal (with an $11 million option) so if they wear him out it's not like he'll be a burden next year if he can't take it.
I call that the "Yankee Late Season Rental Acquisition Use Him Up" program
I call that the "Yankee Late Season Rental Acquisition Use Him Up" program
Zach Eflin is looking pretty good in Tampa. I believe the Sox made him a 3 year/$40 million offer and he decided to let TB match it. They did and he did not come back to the Sox. Not sure how the rest of the off-season would have played out since that deal happened on 12/1/22, but, he's be great so far, with 31 Ks and 3 walks over 5 starts.
Pivetta has really shown what consistency can do - by many measures he's the best starter. I don't see them moving him to the pen either. As it is, right now they don't have a log-jam.
If/when they do, I think Bello's next few starts will be telling. They can (IIRC) send him down and call him up again, so maybe they do that to buy a week or two and see what's happening with the other pitchers.
I don't think they know what they're going to do yet.
My biggest problem with their off season signings is that the two older veterans they signed (Kluber and Turner) are the types of players who get a lot of rope because of resumes, but that they could be cooked at any time and are being relied upon. Kluber, while having decent results in his past two starts, has awful underlying statistics - hard hit rate, expected OBA, SLG and walk percentages all career highs by a lot. The move that would help the ball club the most IMO is to DFA him, but it will never happen. Maybe he'll develop shoulder fatigue or something.
But what do we mean by cooked? If you look at his pitch effects, it's not like he's lost velocity or movement, as far as I can detect, compared to recent seasons:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corey-kluber-446372?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
He's the same guy physically, as far as we know. Even a lower body problem would probably show up in there? Not sure. Anyway, in the small sample of his Sox career, he's not executing as consistently as he has, and absolutely needs to given his stuff, but I don't know that this would be evidence of him in sudden decline.
It's not really a problem though... he signed a one year deal (while Turner has been fine really, but is outside this discussion) and won't break the team if they DFA him but he was also signed for insurance for the younger guys- Bello, Whitlock, Houck and he's so far done an adequate job. And none of them have really forced the issue at this point either.
And if you think about it, Chaim and company knew they had a glut of starting pitchers if everyone got healthy and pitched somewhat effectively. I can't imagine him saying "we'll cross that bridge when we come to it". He has a plan.
It's hard to guess at but it still seems likely that a trade solves this at some point over the next 12 weeks. Even if Kluber gets DFA'd and Whitlock needs another surgery, our guys are Sale, Bello, Paxton, Houck, Pivetta and Crawford — and Crawford may be one of the three best arms of that group.
I think they Whitlock this year and next to stick in the rotation before moving him back to the pen if he flames out or can't stay healthy. But it makes sense to me that Pivetta or Houck would be traded before they're moved to the pen. The Mets, for example, could use some pitching help.
There's also an interesting little get-to-know-you campaign around Houck this year. He's been the subject of so many of these folksy little feature spots this year. Can't read too much into it, but it makes me wonder if they're trying to endear folks to his personality, possibly for a trade (they did the same with Chavis months before they moved him, for nothing, though it could be totally coincidental.) Maybe they're trying to recuperate him after the anti-vax stuff?
I think they Whitlock this year and next to stick in the rotation before moving him back to the pen if he flames out or can't stay healthy. But it makes sense to me that Pivetta or Houck would be traded before they're moved to the pen. The Mets, for example, could use some pitching help.
There's also an interesting little get-to-know-you campaign around Houck this year. He's been the subject of so many of these folksy little feature spots this year. Can't read too much into it, but it makes me wonder if they're trying to endear folks to his personality, possibly for a trade (they did the same with Chavis months before they moved him, for nothing, though it could be totally coincidental.) Maybe they're trying to recuperate him after the anti-vax stuff?
If you view things mostly through the prism of "does he represent a poor allocation of John henry's money," as this post largely does, then sure, he's on a cheap one-year deal so he's not a problem. If you view it through the prism of "good baseball teams are made up of good baseball players, and they signed a bad baseball player for 1 of only 5 rotation spots," then it kinda is a problem.
I think it's still too early to tell about Kluber. I was ready to give him two more bad starts then get rid of him, but I actually liked his stuff the last time out, so I'm not ready to pull the plug on him quite yet.
Ok, feel free to elaborate and clarify, then.
My position is that Corey Kluber being a staring pitcher on the 2023 Boston Red Sox is a problem, because Corey Kluber is bad. I further contend that there are several in-house options that are better than him, but who are not being given priority over him (we've already seen Bello be sent down in lieu of Kluber, and it seems pretty clear that Kutter Crawford would outperform him as a starter as well.) And just as germane, I contend that there were better options on both the free agent and trade market than Corey Kluber, who was inexplicably the only starting pitcher this front office signed.
It sure seemed to me like you were saying he's not a problem because he's cheap and on a short-term deal, but again, feel free to elaborate.
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I don't believe that the Red Sox had any interest in signing a SP to more than a one year deal. Of the pitchers who signed one year deals, Kershaw and Perez both signed with their old team for ~$20M, which likely pushes the limits of the CBT if the Sox sign them to those deals. Synderhaard has put up a solid 6.32 ERA for the Dodgers, and Clevinger is putting up an ERA near 5, but still significantly outpitching his FIP for the White Sox.
Other guys who signed one year deals include the ancient Johnny Cueto, Matt Boyd, Michel Lorenzon and the even more ancient than Cueto Rich Hill. And Zach Greinke, who I think clearly wanted to stay in KC.
Which one of them would you prefer over Kluber? They are all basically the same thing at this point, and Kluber is the one who happened to sign with the Red Sox. He's always been considered a leader in the clubhouse, and I am sure that was part of the idea with a young team. Also, outside of Opening Day and an ugly game against Minnesota, he hasn't been that bad. The other ugly start was one that he looked great in, but got pulled in the 5th and Bleier turned a 3-1 lead into a 9-3 deficit within about 6 pitches.
Sure, there were other good pitchers who signed multi-year deals, but the team clearly wanted to avoid those, and most of them would have had luxury tax implications.
There are guys in the organization who might be better than him right now, I agree. But they were looking at opening the season with four of them potentially on the IL, and would have been right on the edge of having enough starting pitching.
Also, keep in mind that while these guys make a lot of money, they are also people. DFA's a guy who you just signed to a $10M contract within a month of the start of the season because of a couple of bad starts is a really, really good way of making sure that other free agents don't want to sign with your team. Chaim isn't playing Out of the Park Baseball, here, and treating these guys like people instead of simply assets is a part of the job.
Kutter Crawford has a career ERA of over 6 as a starter, and looks much more suited to relief work at this point (where he looks quite good), and Bello has been up and down because, frankly, he has options and hasn't been that good.
This is my point. It could be one or the other, but he'll get a chance to work through it, whereas a guy like Bello who has higher upside can be optioned.
So far, and retrospectively, Chaim's avoidance of the SP market looks somewhat prescient. There's about seven FA starters that haven't been bad to start the season, that's about it -- most of them are not on long or even multi-year deals:
Kershaw -- (#4 ranked -- 1 year deal )
Zach Elfin -- 3 year deal
Drew Smyly -- 2 year deal
Martin Perez -- (#8 ranked -- 1 year deal)
Nathan Eovaldi - (#6 ranked -- 2 year deal )
Seth Lugo -- 2 year deal
Wade Miley -- 1 year deal
Vince Velasquez -- 1 year deal
I guess Nathan Eovaldi got some love, but I don't recall most folks screaming for Seth Lugo, Martin Perez, or Vince Velasquez. Here's a list of contracts that look like complete disasters:
-Verlander (#2 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 2 year deal)
-Rodon (#3 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 6 year deal)
-DeGrom (#1 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 5 year deal)
-Anderson(#7 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 3 year deal)
-Walker ( #10 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 4 year deal
-Tallion (# 11 ranked starter by fangraphs -- 4 year deal)
-Bassitt (#5 ranked starter by fangraphs 3 year deal)
Again, its early -- lots can still change of course -- but this 2023 FA starting pitching market is starting to look like an albatross minefield, retrospectively.
