Here’s how I see the carousel:
Bucs: They could roll with Kyle Trask, but more likely, their Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Tom Brady to the carousel, though of course he could retire.
Colts: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Matt Ryan to the carousel.
Commanders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Taylor Heineke and Carson Wentz to the carousel.
Falcons: Marcus Mariota is under contract for another season, but I think they’ll look to acquire a long-term solution at the position, likely retaining Mariota either as a backup or to mentor a rookie who needs seasoning.
49ers: Expect they will roll with Purdy or Lance. Jimmy G to the carousel.
Giants: Daniel Jones is a free agent. Would’ve said with confidence a week ago that he wouldn’t be tagged, but now who the hell knows. Putting him on the carousel.
Jets: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Mike White likely stays as a backup. Zach Wilson to the carousel.
Lions: Jared Goff has a $30.6m cap hit for 2023 and a $10m dead-cap number. Putting Goff on the carousel because I think the time is ripe for the Lions to acquire their long-term QB.
Panthers: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Sam Darnold to the carousel.
Patriots: Perhaps wishful thinking, but I’d like to see them bring a veteran to camp to compete with Jones and Zappe for the starting job.
Raiders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Derek Carr to the carousel.
Ravens: A week ago, I would’ve said Lamar is back on a tag or a long-term deal unless someone offers three first-round picks. Now I’m not so sure — Lamar’s injury seems more serious than we thought, and no-showing a playoff game is the act of a man preparing to shoot his way out of town. Lamar’s on the carousel.
Saints: They desperately need a cap reset but who the hell knows what they will actually do. They’re stuck with Taysom Hill for another year, but I’m putting Jameis Winston on the carousel.
Seahawks: Geno Smith is a free agent and won’t be tagged.
Texans. Even though they’re picking 2nd, I still think they’ll address the position through the draft, though they’ll likely sign a veteran QB to push the new kid. Davis Mills to the carousel; they won’t want a guy in camp who commands the loyalty of some of the team’s veterans.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill’s 2023 cap number is $36.6m with a dead cap number of $18.8m. Not putting on the carousel because I think a restructure is mutually beneficial and will get done.
On the carousel (in alphabetical order, likely starters in bold):
Among the bolded names, only Carr and Jimmy G are locks to change teams; Brady could retire, and the others could return to their current teams. But there’s the potential for a ton of movement.