Internet Cowboy, Turbo Accelerator, tOSU Denier
- Apr 7, 2001
This is a great case of lies, damn lies and statistics.One interesting factoid is that ~1/3 of the rostered players in the NFL are undrafted. I think that’s pretty striking given that day 1/2 picks are almost always rostered for at least their rookie seasons.
The hit rate on the average draft pick is pretty low, in other words.
On the surface, the data seems to draw one to the exact conclusion at which you have arrived. However, it is actually dead balls wrong (please note - this is a much bigger deal with gun data, which Americans understand even worse than they do Public Health and Cost of Medical Care data).
There are 32 NFL teams.
7 Rounds in each draft.
~225 picks in every draft (I know there are supplemental, and penalties, etc but work with me here)
There are 32 NFL teams (still)
53 men/women/prefer-not-to-identify-by-your-traditional-gender-role humans on each roster
1,696 men/women/prefer-not-to-identify-by-your-traditional-gender-role humans
If every player drafted were to make an NFL roster, it would take 7.5-ish years to fill up all of the spots (and we aren't even talking about practice squads). The average NFL player does not play that long due to the inherent nature of the game.
That only 1/3rd of players on rosters are drafted players shows that the hit rate is actually pretty darned high. Success in the draft is critical.