2023 NFL Draft Official Game Thread (This is the thread WITH SPOILERS)

Dogman

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I'm thinking they trade back into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and 4th/5th and then pick an OT. Then trade up in the 2nd, take DB/WR/Campbell, and give up their later 2nd and a 5th/6th. From there, fill out the roster with another T, S, TE, Edge, QB, K (in some order).
 

rodderick

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If this draft has very few true first round talents and you're sitting at 14 with 11 picks, you should be looking to trade up to make sure you get one of those guys instead of trading back into the pack. This team needs blue chippers, honestly think one of those guys changes the trajectory of the team at this point more than hitting on like 3 Uche/Barmore level. They have a solid talent base, they lack elite players.
 

Bowser

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We'll trade up to 12 and draft Jahmyr Gibbs. Or up to 2 for Tyree Wilson. I'm expecting one of those WTF moments because always.
 

gammoseditor

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I read that the draft has few first round talents. If so, will BB do his usual trade down for volume in 2-4 rounds, or will there be less of a market to trade up to his picks, so we'll be stuck making those?
He will probably try. The trick is finding someone that wants to trade up.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Predicting trades is probably an exercise in futility, but I'll do it anyway. Trade back:

If Richardson is still on the board, I could see TB (19), SEA (20) and maybe BAL (22) interested in moving up.
If Richardson is gone and Hooker is still on the board, maybe WAS (16) wants to jump up 2 spots to get their guy? But maybe they stand pat and still get him.
If Bijan is on the board, DAL (26) and PHI (30) could give the Pats a call.
A guy like Levis or Carter could drop and someone wants to jump up and get them.
If they want to trade for future picks, that could open up a deal with a team in the early 2nd (like HOU, giving up #33, a 3rd/4th this year and a 2nd next year)

If the Pats want to trade up...ATL at 8 makes some sense as they only have 7 picks. And TEN doesn't have many picks sitting at #11.
I don't think they'd pay the price to move into the top 5. What would that take? 14, 46, next year's 1st and more? That's just not their style.
 

ShaneTrot

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It figures that they have a fairly high draft pick in a pretty mediocre draft. Besides corner, TE, and maybe edge, this looks like a fairly shitty draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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wouldn’t that suggest that a team trading up might get a bargain?
only if they were the only suitor, otherwise it's a bidding war, and the thing about top 3 draft picks, they don't usually go down in value as time goes on, they usually go up as teams know for sure who they can get.
ARI has no need to trade that until it's on the clock and they'll likely have multiple bidders.
 

Cellar-Door

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It figures that they have a fairly high draft pick in a pretty mediocre draft. Besides corner, TE, and maybe edge, this looks like a fairly shitty draft.
I think this is a very good draft... it's just not a top heavy one. There aren't as many "this guy has elite upside and a good floor, clear top 15 pick" guys, it has a lot of "this guy is a top 45 player" guys. Lot of fringe 1/2 tackles, TON of late 1st early 2nd level CBs, best TE class in.... maybe ever (but no Kyle Pitts), lot of solid 1st/2nd round edge and DT guys.... really only weak positions are WR (lot of 2nd/3rd round talent but short of no doubt 1st rounders), and LB.

I do think this is not as good a draft to have 14 as normal... it is a really nice draft to have a pick in the early to mid 20s I think, or to have multiple picks in the top half of the 2nd.
 

Rico Guapo

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It figures that they have a fairly high draft pick in a pretty mediocre draft. Besides corner, TE, and maybe edge, this looks like a fairly shitty draft.
This draft lacks top end "blue chip" talent but is fairly deep for mid round prospects, say 2nd through 4th rounds, and as you said has good talent available at corner/TE where the Patriots have a definite need. I'm concerned the talent level at OT, where they really need help, drops off rapidly after the top five guys and doesn't pick up again until the 3rd or 4th round.
 

rodderick

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I really don't think this draft is particularly deep aside from cornerback and tight end. The receiver class is the weakest in years, edge is meh outside of the very top guys, there's very little at linebacker in general, the safeties aren't good, interior OL and DL lack top tier talent, I guess you can grab some tackles into the second round that could potentially play right away, so that's probably an area of depth as well. To me it's a poor class in general.
 

Cellar-Door

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I really don't think this draft is particularly deep aside from cornerback and tight end. The receiver class is the weakest in years, edge is meh outside of the very top guys, there's very little at linebacker in general, the safeties aren't good, interior OL and DL lack top tier talent, I guess you can grab some tackles into the second round that could potentially play right away, so that's probably an area of depth as well. To me it's a poor class in general.
I think Edge is pretty deep, and safety.... I think it's a good class, possibly great depending who you think is a CB and who is a safety. Also I think interior OL is good and deep. It lacks top end talent for sure, but you could be pulling starters in the 4th and 5th at a number of positions.

I think from what I've seen a lot of experts feel the same way about it @SMU_Sox does. Looking at his board....
This year has 10 more players ranked 7 or above than last year. (good starter, immediate contributor)
This year has 49 more players ranked 6 or above than last year (good contributors, potential starters/spot starters).

It's a deep class, both in starters and contributors, but what it lacks is blue chippers.
 

Ferm Sheller

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The draft starts at 8:00 ET and usually goes to about 11:30 IIRC, so the Pats, who are picking not quite halfway through the first round, should be on the clock at about 9:30 -- does that seem right?
 

Cellar-Door

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View: https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/1651657283128926236


Cool story from the Panthers on how the trade up to #1 happened....
also makes HOU look awful. Apparently CHI was trading down from 1 to 2 then giving 2 to CAR for a package (similar to what they got, but likely with some sort of pick instead of DJ Moore).
HOU kept dragging their feet on finalizing... so CAR said... ok, what if we go to #1... trade expands a little, Moore gets added, which beats out an unnamed 3rd team that offerred more 1sts.

HOU ends up stuck at #2, and if rumors are true, will miss out on the QB they wanted (Young).
 

j44thor

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I think this is a very good draft... it's just not a top heavy one. There aren't as many "this guy has elite upside and a good floor, clear top 15 pick" guys, it has a lot of "this guy is a top 45 player" guys. Lot of fringe 1/2 tackles, TON of late 1st early 2nd level CBs, best TE class in.... maybe ever (but no Kyle Pitts), lot of solid 1st/2nd round edge and DT guys.... really only weak positions are WR (lot of 2nd/3rd round talent but short of no doubt 1st rounders), and LB.

I do think this is not as good a draft to have 14 as normal... it is a really nice draft to have a pick in the early to mid 20s I think, or to have multiple picks in the top half of the 2nd.
I'd argue any draft that has 4 QBs projected to go in the top 12 is a good draft to have a pick in the top 14. Last year was not a great year to have the 14th pick as there were no QBs drafted until pick 20. While Kyle Hamilton was highly rated as the 14th overall pick if you look at who went right after him it was a bunch of IOL and 2nd tier WR. I'd rather have 14 this year than last.
 

Ferm Sheller

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If Young goes #1 overall, he'll be the first Alabama player to do it since Joe Namath in 1965 and will become only the third Alabama player ever to be picked #1. I find that a little surprising.
 

BaseballJones

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If Young goes #1 overall, he'll be the first Alabama player to do it since Joe Namath in 1965 and will become only the third Alabama player ever to be picked #1. I find that a little surprising.
It's amazing what Saban has done with so little top end talent!
 

BigSoxFan

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Cool story from the Panthers on how the trade up to #1 happened....
also makes HOU look awful. Apparently CHI was trading down from 1 to 2 then giving 2 to CAR for a package (similar to what they got, but likely with some sort of pick instead of DJ Moore).
HOU kept dragging their feet on finalizing... so CAR said... ok, what if we go to #1... trade expands a little, Moore gets added, which beats out an unnamed 3rd team that offerred more 1sts.

HOU ends up stuck at #2, and if rumors are true, will miss out on the QB they wanted (Young).
Or they could have just lost the last game of the year and avoided all of this.
 

Ed Hillel

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If Young goes #1 overall, he'll be the first Alabama player to do it since Joe Namath in 1965 and will become only the third Alabama player ever to be picked #1. I find that a little surprising.
The world is full of crazy things, but this is among the craziest.
 

Cellar-Door

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If Young goes #1 overall, he'll be the first Alabama player to do it since Joe Namath in 1965 and will become only the third Alabama player ever to be picked #1. I find that a little surprising.
I don't, #1 is usually a top QB, Alabama doesn't really recruit top "NFL QB" prospects. They won by dominating recruiting on the lines, at RB and WR. For a long time their offense was considered behind the curve and heavily run based. That changed in more recent years, but they still didn't get a lot of the guys who were built for the NFL. Closest they came was what... Tua, who was undersized.
 

j44thor

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Lukas Van Ness would be so underwhelming I don't even want to entertain the thought.
What do you have against Hercules? He is still a bit of a project but you don't teach 6'5" 275 lbs of lean muscle who runs a sub 4.6 40. He is also still just 21 so a lot of room to mature. He isn't my first choice but will likely be going in the 10-24 range.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I don't, #1 is usually a top QB, Alabama doesn't really recruit top "NFL QB" prospects. They won by dominating recruiting on the lines, at RB and WR. For a long time their offense was considered behind the curve and heavily run based. That changed in more recent years, but they still didn't get a lot of the guys who were built for the NFL. Closest they came was what... Tua, who was undersized.
Yes, and that's something that I considered, but they've had a bunch of guys go #2 - #5 (and a slew more that fell just outside the top 5). Trent Richardson, John Hannah, Keith McCants, Derrick Thomas, Cornelius Bennett, Chris Samuels, Marcell Dareus, EJ Junior, Jon Hand, John Copeland, Amari Cooper, and Quinnen Williams were all #2 - #5.

Also, QBs go #1 overall more than any other position, of course, but they don't even come close to lapping the field. Here's a breakdown:

  • Quarterback: 34
  • Running back: 23
  • Defensive linemen: 16
  • Offensive linemen: 6
  • Wide receivers/tight ends: 5
  • Linebackers: 5
  • Defensive backs: 1
EDIT: Oh wait, that breakdown is all-time whereas 1965 (the Namath draft) and after is the operative timeframe.
 

JM3

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Cool story from the Panthers on how the trade up to #1 happened....
also makes HOU look awful. Apparently CHI was trading down from 1 to 2 then giving 2 to CAR for a package (similar to what they got, but likely with some sort of pick instead of DJ Moore).
HOU kept dragging their feet on finalizing... so CAR said... ok, what if we go to #1... trade expands a little, Moore gets added, which beats out an unnamed 3rd team that offerred more 1sts.

HOU ends up stuck at #2, and if rumors are true, will miss out on the QB they wanted (Young).
It's a nice puff piece...hard to draw too many conclusions about Houston from it, though.

The Bears were going to flip the first pick to the Texans for a significant haul which included a starting offensive player, and then were then going to send the second pick to the Panthers for another stockpile of help for the entire organization.
I'm not sure what a "significant haul" is or which starting player was on the table...none of them seem particularly good except Tunsil. I guess probably Cooks who they flipped to the Cowboys for a '23 5th & '24 6th.

They also may think Bryce Young is the best QB in the draft, but still might not like him that much & think there will be more value in moving down, not up. I think it's way too early to bash Houston for not pulling the trigger on whatever unknown "significant haul" they would have given up for a QB who may or may not turn out to be any good.

Based on my reading of the article, it looks like Moore was already in for #2, & what was added was a '25 2nd, which seems quite low & like the Texans should have just been able to offer their '25 2nd & call it a day?
 
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ManicCompression

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What do you have against Hercules? He is still a bit of a project but you don't teach 6'5" 275 lbs of lean muscle who runs a sub 4.6 40. He is also still just 21 so a lot of room to mature. He isn't my first choice but will likely be going in the 10-24 range.
We said the same thing about Vernon Gholston.
 

rodderick

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What do you have against Hercules? He is still a bit of a project but you don't teach 6'5" 275 lbs of lean muscle who runs a sub 4.6 40. He is also still just 21 so a lot of room to mature. He isn't my first choice but will likely be going in the 10-24 range.
I don't see the testing speed on film, to me he's very raw as a pass rusher and relies way too much on power, which won't be nearly as effective against NFL OLinemen. The athletic upside is tremendous, I'm just weary of how long it would take for him to become a productive pass rushing threat, if he ever becomes one at all. To my very untrained eyes he looks raw on technique and not explosive off the edge, which isn't a combo I like. I 100% see the appeal and think he's taylor made for Bill to fall in love with, however. I just think at this point he's more of a solid anchoring player than an edge threat, and at 14 I want my DE to be a serious edge threat.
 

Cellar-Door

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Lukas Van Ness would be so underwhelming I don't even want to entertain the thought.
Depends where they get him... at 14 I'd be disappointed. If they trade back into the late 20s.... sure whatever.

What do you have against Hercules? He is still a bit of a project but you don't teach 6'5" 275 lbs of lean muscle who runs a sub 4.6 40. He is also still just 21 so a lot of room to mature. He isn't my first choice but will likely be going in the 10-24 range.
Meh. I'm not that big a fan and honestly....
Foskey is 8 pounds lighter but showed more strength and explosiveness (LVN did have better agility scores)
Murphy was faster and stronger at 4 pounds lighter

There are similar athletes with his size at the position in this draft that I think are better than him. (Also some smaller edges in Smith and McDonald who I might prefer). I'm not a big fan of picking the first of the raw edge rushers who don't project as blue chips.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's a nice puff piece...hard to draw too many conclusions about Houston from it, though.



I'm not sure what a "significant haul" is or which starting player was on the table...none of them seem particularly good except Tunsil. I guess probably Cooks who they flipped to the Cowboys for a '23 5th & '24 6th.

They also may think Bryce Young is the best QB in the draft, but still might not like him that much & think there will be more value in moving down, not up. I think it's way too early to bash Houston for not pulling the trigger on whatever unknown "significant haul" they would have given up for a QB who may or may not turn out to be any good.

Based on my reading of the article, it looks like Moore was already in for #2, & what was added was a '25 2nd, which seems quite low & like the Texans should have just been able to offer their '25 2nd & call it a day?
My general take, and the one I've seen from beat writers is not that HOU is getting bashed for not trading to #1 without knowing the haul, but that they were so disorganized that CHI just moved on because HOU was waffling and wouldn't commit more than any real debates about value.
 

E5 Yaz

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Lamar Jackson and Ravens agree to five-year extension. / nfl.com
 

SMU_Sox

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I’m big fans of the top 4 edges realistically available and I like Nolan Smith a lot too. My favorite is Foskey, then McDonald. (He doesn’t seem like their type), then probably Murphy and LVN. I think LVN is plenty explosive. LVN needs the most work but he has probably the best physical traits and athleticism. Smith I just worry about his size and what his role/fit is. He’s still a good pick. I would be happy with any of them.
 

JM3

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My general take, and the one I've seen from beat writers is not that HOU is getting bashed for not trading to #1 without knowing the haul, but that they were so disorganized that CHI just moved on because HOU was waffling and wouldn't commit more than any real debates about value.
Let's spin it another way - Bears GM can't sleep at night so makes this trade for lesser value rather than waiting a couple days to fleece the Texans.

But yeah, defending the Texans organization/ownership would be a fools errand.
 

BigJimEd

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The draft starts at 8:00 ET and usually goes to about 11:30 IIRC, so the Pats, who are picking not quite halfway through the first round, should be on the clock at about 9:30 -- does that seem right?
From Reiss:

6. Set your clocks: If the Patriots keep the 14th overall pick, and the draft follows a similar pace as last year, it should be made around 9:45 p.m. ET
 

ehaz

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I'd argue any draft that has 4 QBs projected to go in the top 12 is a good draft to have a pick in the top 14. Last year was not a great year to have the 14th pick as there were no QBs drafted until pick 20. While Kyle Hamilton was highly rated as the 14th overall pick if you look at who went right after him it was a bunch of IOL and 2nd tier WR. I'd rather have 14 this year than last.
In addition to the 4 QBs going, it's also rare nowadays for a draft to have a potential top 12 pick at RB. Not a sure thing that Bijan is gone before #14, but if he is, there are just 8 other picks before you. Three of those will likely be Anderson, Carter, and Tyree Wilson. So you're probably looking at a maximum of only 5 of these players being off the board at #14:
  • DB: Christian Gonzalez, Deonte Banks, Devon Witherspoon, Brian Branch.
  • OT/OG: Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones, Darnell Wright, Peter Skoronski
  • WR/TE: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid
  • EDGE: Nolan Smith, Myles Murphy, Isaiah Foskey, Lukas Van Ness
In 2022, the Day 1 DBs after #13 were Kyle Hamilton, Trent McDuffie, Kair Elam, Dax Hill, and Lewis Cine. The offensive line picks after #13 were all OG/C except for Trevor Penning at #19 (Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson, Tyler Smith, Tyler Linderbaum, Cole Strange). The pass catchers after #13 were Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks. EDGEs were Jermaine Johnson and George Karlaftis.

I don't think any of those guys were clearly better prospects than what's likely to be on the board at #14 in this draft except probably Kyle Hamilton over Branch. Maybe Jermaine Johnson over Van Ness? Penning over the top OTs? I'm not sure any of the corners would be 1st rounders in this draft. And I really can't see how Dotson and Burks were better prospects than JSN and Zay (I'm not sure if they were better prospects than Addison for that matter).
 

j44thor

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I've seen a few "final" mock drafts with Skoronski to NE at 14. Not sure how I feel about that.
 

Cellar-Door

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Let's spin it another way - Bears GM can't sleep at night so makes this trade for lesser value rather than waiting a couple days to fleece the Texans.

But yeah, defending the Texans organization/ownership would be a fools errand.
Yeah, they oversell it some, I doubt Bears left much on the table, and I think the "extra 2nd" is nonsense, my read between the lines is they hadn't included Moore yet (but maybe would have) in their Bears negotiations. So the Bears said... give us more (Moore + a 2nd instead of some distant 1st) and we'll cut out HOU because it's similar enough value and a done deal is worth it to us so we know what we're doing in FA.
 

Cellar-Door

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I've seen a few "final" mock drafts with Skoronski to NE at 14. Not sure how I feel about that.
I really don't see it. Basically every one of those I see the justification is something like "well Patriots have taken guys with short arms before" or "Well he's the best football player on the board"... which ignores that 1. "short arms" was still significantly more than Skoronski has, and 2. Guard might literally be the only position on the roster that they couldn't slide a guy into (they have last year's 1st in Strange and Onwenwu ) unlike many other teams who if Skoronski struggles at T can kick him inside.