2023 NBA Playoffs

mostman

mostman

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Jun 3, 2003
18,806
dhellers said:
Good question, one that a younger friend posed to me: "how deep is my LAL hatred, given that Denver may be a tougher matchup"

I made a simple "additive linear utility", where I assigned 2 utilities to each of the four teams: one for losing and one for winning a series.
So 100 utils if Celts win, 1 i they lose.
LAL 4 if they win, 40 if they loose.
Etc

Then for all 8 possible scenarios, assign a probability of who wins the championship (given who gets to the championship).

Then compute weighted sum of these utilities for all Lakers Win scenarios, compared to utilities for LAL lose scenarios.

Bottom line: with reasonable measures of Laker hatred, Denver sortOfLike, and Miami disdain --- it is almost always better for LAL to loose.

That is: it takes ridiculous probabilities (say, 90% chance Denver beats Celts, and 90% celts beat laker) for the weighting to favor LAL winning.

Obviously its a simple model, but it isn't totally silly

(I could post the XLS, which is easy to tweak. Should I?\

BTW: apologies Ale ... somehow misread the "best"
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Awesome. This place is the fucking best.
 
R

radsoxfan

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SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,701
I wish there was some way to prevent the ref with the worst view of the play from making foul calls. Can we have a rotating whistle silencer?

That clown under the basket blew the whistle while the 2 refs staring right at Murray didn't call anything. There guys are so bad at their job.
 
slamminsammya

slamminsammya

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Jul 31, 2006
9,367
San Francisco
radsoxfan said:
I dont entirely disagree but these guys are so good. What do you mean, lots of trapping?

Almost any weird crazy D is most likely just going to lead to a wide open 3 or dunk.
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Yeah i mean league average on wide open threes is 40 so you're already at 120 ppp there. I'm not sure, something really selling out for turnovers? Full court?
 
Kliq

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
22,762
There has been two minutes of basketball in the last like, 20 minutes of real time.
 
R

radsoxfan

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Aug 9, 2009
13,701
slamminsammya said:
Yeah i mean league average on wide open threes is 40 so you're already at 120 ppp there. I'm not sure, something really selling out for turnovers? Full court?
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I hear ya, it seems like anything would have to be better than the status quo sometimes.

But these guys are just so good, even that 40% number has some level of duress built into it. These guys are all making way over 50% in warmups so if you are risking truly wide open shots with some complete sell out defense it will likely get worse.
 
lars10

lars10

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Jul 31, 2007
11,685
This is why I don't want the Lakers.. every series with LeBron is a parade to the FT line.
 
lars10

lars10

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Jul 31, 2007
11,685
benhogan said:
Has Steve Javie ever disagreed with the officials?
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The NBA ref reporter they bring in always agrees with the call every single time.. or at least it seems that way. It's the most useless addition to any sports broadcast. The trend of adding more officials to explain officiating can't go away soon enough.
 
TrapperAB

TrapperAB

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2002
3,060
West Hartford, CT
LeBron was very quiet for awhile, but when the lead shrunk, he started asserting himself

Lakers D has been intense

Can’t stand that Laker role players are stepping up
 
Auger34

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,405
That’s a huge rebound by Aaron Gordon. Needs to make these free throws though
 
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