2023 Mocks

Mystic Merlin

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Sep 21, 2007
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Neither here nor there, but Peter King has Hendon Hooker going at 12, over ten picks higher than Richardson. Might be the biggest outlier prediction I’ve seen, but, then again, he said he doesn’t know shit.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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Neither here nor there, but Peter King has Hendon Hooker going at 12, over ten picks higher than Richardson. Might be the biggest outlier prediction I’ve seen, but, then again, he said he doesn’t know shit.
The Richardson thing is more the outlier, McShay said today he's heard Hooker is going top 20.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
274
Curious what if any impact the leaked S2 test scores will have on QB drafting. Here's what's been reported:
  • Bryce Young = 98%
  • Jake Haener = 96%
  • Will Levis = 93%
  • Jaren Hall = 93%
  • Clayton Tune = 84%
  • Anthony Richardson = 79%
  • Hendon Hooker = 46%
  • CJ Stroud = 18%
The S2, which replaced the Wonderlic, is administered via the XBox and measures visual processing speed. Elite scores begin at 80%, so Richardson narrowly misses the cut. The Stroud score is thought by some to be problematic and may be the cause of his recent slight drop in the rankings.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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The Richardson thing is more the outlier, McShay said today he's heard Hooker is going top 20.
Don't forget everything you hear for the next 72hrs is the smoke teams want you to hear. This happens every year at this time. No one picking after 1 is telling the truth at this point.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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Curious what if any impact the leaked S2 test scores will have on QB drafting. Here's what's been reported:
  • Bryce Young = 98%
  • Jake Haener = 96%
  • Will Levis = 93%
  • Jaren Hall = 93%
  • Clayton Tune = 84%
  • Anthony Richardson = 79%
  • Hendon Hooker = 46%
  • CJ Stroud = 18%
The S2, which replaced the Wonderlic, is administered via the XBox and measures visual processing speed. Elite scores begin at 80%, so Richardson narrowly misses the cut. The Stroud score is thought by some to be problematic and may be the cause of his recent slight drop in the rankings.
When I first saw these I thought they made a mistake and switched up Levis' and Stroud's scores. I don't know what to make of S2.
 

Cellar-Door

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Curious what if any impact the leaked S2 test scores will have on QB drafting. Here's what's been reported:
  • Bryce Young = 98%
  • Jake Haener = 96%
  • Will Levis = 93%
  • Jaren Hall = 93%
  • Clayton Tune = 84%
  • Anthony Richardson = 79%
  • Hendon Hooker = 46%
  • CJ Stroud = 18%
The S2, which replaced the Wonderlic, is administered via the XBox and measures visual processing speed. Elite scores begin at 80%, so Richardson narrowly misses the cut. The Stroud score is thought by some to be problematic and may be the cause of his recent slight drop in the rankings.
Company founder says 2 of those are wrong, and all of them lack context
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/24/s2-cognition-test-cofounder-addresses-leaked-scores

I would guess the leak is someone trying to drop Stroud out of the top 3.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
274
When I first saw these I thought they made a mistake and switched up Levis' and Stroud's scores. I don't know what to make of S2.
True, Levis gives off a bit of that overconfident meathead vibe.

Company founder says 2 of those are wrong, and all of them lack context
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/24/s2-cognition-test-cofounder-addresses-leaked-scores

I would guess the leak is someone trying to drop Stroud out of the top 3.
I mean, it's just sad that we can't get reliable leaked info! I'll be curious to see, though, if the S2 is measuring something that reliably predicts QB performance, or at least the visual processing component of it. I have to believe that day will come.
 

Doug Beerabelli

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Regarding Levis as a meathead, I'd say that not exactly accurate. Or perhaps his meatheadedness is rather intentional. Not sure if this is paywalled, but article about Levis from interviewing people at his HS. He was being recruited by Ivies before the bigger schools stepped in late. Xavier HS is a private school, but Catholic and all boys -- it's not to expensive and not too hard to get into, but it has strong athletic programs, and takes good athletes from multiple area towns, including mine.

https://www.ctinsider.com/gametimect/football/article/will-levis-kentucky-nfl-draft-17901772.php#taboola-3
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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Regarding Levis as a meathead, I'd say that not exactly accurate. Or perhaps his meatheadedness is rather intentional. Not sure if this is paywalled, but article about Levis from interviewing people at his HS. He was being recruited by Ivies before the bigger schools stepped in late. Xavier HS is a private school, but Catholic and all boys -- it's not to expensive and not too hard to get into, but it has strong athletic programs, and takes good athletes from multiple area towns, including mine.

https://www.ctinsider.com/gametimect/football/article/will-levis-kentucky-nfl-draft-17901772.php#taboola-3
I have no opinion on whether Levis is a meathead and for all I know he could be very intelligent. His reported S2 result surprised me not because I think he's a dumb dumb but because it is at least purported to measure visual processing speed (unlike the Wonderlic which is a cognitive/intelligence test). Besides Levis' inaccuracy on short throws, which scouts say is related to mechanical issues, footwork, etc., from what I understand, the biggest flag on him I repeatedly hear about from those who are way better at this than me is Levis' processing/play recognition. I think it may have been Waldman who said that the gap between Levis' recognition and his actions is too large to be successful in the NFL.

Richardson has similar issues with accuracy, but his supporters argue that the tape shows his processing ability is actually there and he will recognize and pull the trigger on the right throw more often than not.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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I don’t have a final mock but I think they are going to try and trade down and pick up and additional second or third rounder. Then they are going to take one of Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy or Nolan Smith. They might just pick them at 14.

Next I believe they target a WR: Zay or Mingo is my guess here. But could be Quentin Johnston too. They might trade up for one of these guys.

I also believe they will target Tyler Steen highly - might trade up for him.


Next I think we see in the third or fourth round the follow set of guys:

Corners: Bennett - Maryland but there are like 4-5 options in my draft superlatives that could fit.

RB: Roschon Johnson, Evan Hull, or Eric Gray

OT: Morris, Saldiveri, Warren, Richards, McClendon.

IOL: Bradford

TE: Schoonmaker, Kraft, Laporta

Safeties: Jartavius Martin, Christopher Smith, Jammie Robinson, Sydney Brown, Anthony Johnson Jr., Marte Mapu, Jordan Battle.
 

Doug Beerabelli

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I have no opinion on whether Levis is a meathead and for all I know he could be very intelligent. His reported S2 result surprised me not because I think he's a dumb dumb but because it is at least purported to measure visual processing speed (unlike the Wonderlic which is a cognitive/intelligence test). Besides Levis' inaccuracy on short throws, which scouts say is related to mechanical issues, footwork, etc., from what I understand, the biggest flag on him I repeatedly hear about from those who are way better at this than me is Levis' processing/play recognition. I think it may have been Waldman who said that the gap between Levis' recognition and his actions is too large to be successful in the NFL.

Richardson has similar issues with accuracy, but his supporters argue that the tape shows his processing ability is actually there and he will recognize and pull the trigger on the right throw more often than not.
Thanks for clarification. Is there a chance the negative on Levis on the processing has something to do with teammate performance/ability? Like inability of teammates to get open, etc?

To be clear, I'm not a Levis fanboy. Just genuinely curious.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
32,020
ONE DAY

Final Mocks

PFN:
64031
Couple minor trade downs.... I regret the Perry pick a little, I assumed Mingo was gone when I made it, probably would have gone either Mingo there, or another position if I thought I was getting Mingo later. Still generally pretty happy with that (might have gotten 2 safties with the DB picks, but hopefully Bennett can stick at corner.

FANSPEAKS:
64033
So great defensive talent first 3 picks, but that was because man did the passcatchers and OTs go off the board fast.

Mockdraftdatabase

64035
64036
Meh. Really hinges on whether JSN is a #1 guy.

ESPN ANALYTICS
64037
Couldn't land a single WR oh well.


OVERALL:
After a bunch of weeks, my biggest takeaway is... this seems like one of the least consensus drafts in a long while, very few consensus risers and fallers. Mingo maybe (except PFF), but otherwise it's all over the place, you could have a guy top 50 one place and 175+ somewhere else, just a huge mushy middle in this draft.
 

Attachments

OldeBeanTowne

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Dec 12, 2007
951
I don’t have a final mock but I think they are going to try and trade down and pick up and additional second or third rounder. Then they are going to take one of Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy or Nolan Smith. They might just pick them at 14.

Next I believe they target a WR: Zay or Mingo is my guess here. But could be Quentin Johnston too. They might trade up for one of these guys.

I also believe they will target Tyler Steen highly - might trade up for him.


Next I think we see in the third or fourth round the follow set of guys:

Corners: Bennett - Maryland but there are like 4-5 options in my draft superlatives that could fit.

RB: Roschon Johnson, Evan Hull, or Eric Gray

OT: Morris, Saldiveri, Warren, Richards, McClendon.

IOL: Bradford

TE: Schoonmaker, Kraft, Laporta

Safeties: Jartavius Martin, Christopher Smith, Jammie Robinson, Sydney Brown, Anthony Johnson Jr., Marte Mapu, Jordan Battle.
Would love this, if it happens to work out that way.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
4,619
This... is certainly a mock draft.

https://www.nickadamsusa.com/news/nick-adams-mock-draft-2023

14. New England Patriots (Team Needs: WR, OL, DB)

The pick: Riley Moss, CB, Iowa


Moss is the quintessential Bill Belichick player. High football IQ, has an impeccable work ethic, and does his job. Moss is fast and physical, the perfect plug-and-play fix for the Patriots' weak secondary. Absolutely can’t miss athleticism. Moss is one of the most explosive athletes at the corner position I have ever seen, and he brings a certain element of swagger to the CB position that most DB prospects in this year's class lack. If not for the abundance of QBs and TEs at the top of this year’s class, Riley Moss would be a virtual lock to go top 5. The Patriots are getting a STEAL here, no cap!
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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I made the mistake of clicking through.... and most of his choices are based on their known or presumed political and/or religious beliefs.... woof.

Edit- lol, just realized he picked all white guys in the top 11.
 
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ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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I made the mistake of clicking through.... and most of his choices are based on their known or presumed political and/or religious beliefs.... woof.

Edit- lol, just realized he picked all white guys in the top 11.
Ok he’s definitely just a satire of Trump-world Twitter personalities… right?
Jacob Slade, DL, Michigan State

Slade is a big masculine guy with a blue-collar work ethic. He’s strong enough to play inside and athletic enough to play on the end. Slade has flown beneath most of the media’s radar because he doesn’t fit the profile of a day-one draft pick, but I had a very strong 1st round grade on the big guy from Michigan State. When I scouted him in person, I was in awe of the way he used his powerful hands and mesmerized by the way his hips moved. I was salivating at the way he initiated contact off the snap and plowed into blockers with a masculine bull-rush move. I was excited by Slade and fully expected him to go on day one, but then I made a heartbreaking discovery. As I was inspecting Jacob Slade’s social media interactions, I found something disturbing buried deep in his Twitter likes. Slade had liked a tweet attacking Andrew Tate, one of the most recognizable and well-respected alpha males on the planet. To make matters worse, the tweet was from Greta Thunberg, the Swedish child who is alarmed by the weather. After I came to terms with what I had just seen, I made the tough decision to remove Slade from my draft board.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
10,543
I made the mistake of clicking through.... and most of his choices are based on their known or presumed political and/or religious beliefs.... woof.

Edit- lol, just realized he picked all white guys in the top 11.
Nick Adams is the love child of Sean Hannity and Charlie Kirk, no more attention needs to be paid to his worthless commentary.
He didn't spend 5mins researching his list, a link to a chatgpt would be far more valuable.

edit: So I actually didn't realize he was Australian but I contend he is going the conservative grift route vs. the anti-political route his fellow countryman Jim Jeffries carved out so in short still fuck Nick Adams.
 
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j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
10,543
After the last two nights of gut punches I'm fully expecting NE to either trade up for Levis, stay put and draft Joey Porter Jr. (hate the name not so much the player) or trade back into the 2nd rd and draft a C from a college I've never heard of.
Break the slump Bill.
 

Carbo Loading

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Dec 8, 2002
797
Vancouver, WA
One final draft this morning - when Jalen Carter was available at 11, I had to move up which cost me a 3rd rounder. I then made another trade to get back into the 3rd for Schoonmaker. Although it doesn't address the needs for OT or CB, I think Carter and Campbell will be difference makers on D.

64080
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
10,270
around the way
FWIW, there are a handful of folks in this thread that I wish were running our draft this week. And I'm generally an IBWT guy. Lots of good stuff here. Thanks all.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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Dec 12, 2007
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64084
Give me all your day 2 picks! Get it done Theo! What's the highest number of top 100 picks made in a single draft?

Obviously, they would never make this many picks, but I didn't try to move around the board in the later rounds.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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So checking around here are the guys who the Pats are projected with in various places mock drafts;
PFF (4 different writers):
Murphy
Skoronski
Harrison
Porter Jr.

ATHLETIC
Banks
Jones (Broderick)

RINGER
Jones (Broderick)

NFL.COM
Van Ness
Wilson
FLowers
Skoronski

YAHOO
Jones (Broderick)

CBS
Van Ness
Van Ness
Jones (Broderick)
Jones (Broderick)
Jones (Broderick)
Skoronski

ESPN
Smith
Skoronski


Very much an Edge and OL heavy grouping, 2 CB and 1 WR but 11 OL picks (4 Skoronski, 6 Jones, 1 Harrison) and 6 Edge (3 Van Ness, 1 Smith, 1 Wilson, 1 Murphy).
 

Devizier

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I generally don't love the mocks (especially the user generated) because the models don't seem flexible/random enough, but they can give you a rough idea of who might be available ~15 picks away, which is obviously where the Patriots are right now. PFN updated with the first round in the bank, so it's looking like the Patriots might see a decent edge (Ojulari, Adeboware, Foskey, White) or tight end (Mayer, Washington) fall, besides the usual assortment of (pre-draft consensus) second tier WR etc. Plus plenty of highly rated interior linemen seem like they will be available if Belichick wants to troll the fanbase.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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PFF also updated their simulator with the 1st round in the bank. Instead of the usual trade up in the 2nd round, I used two 4ths to trade from 76 back into the 2nd and grabbed a falling premium edge rusher in Foskey who I know many people seem to love. Came out as a slight overpay in the Hill trade chart (96 points vs 103 points). I love LaPorta more than the WRs available at #46, I think he can be Aaron Hernandez without the murder. Steen, Morris, Freeland, and Duncan all went off the board in the 3rd, so I took Nick Saldiveri at OT as the last of the last of this group of late Day 2/early Day 3 guys.

I don't know much about Jaquelin Roy but he seemed like a good value pick based on the @SMU_Sox board at a sneaky position of need. Carl Davis and Lawrence Guy are each on the wrong side of 30, Barmore has injury concerns, and I think Godcheaux is only under contract for another year. Then grabbed some depth at IOL, RB, WR in the 6th. No way Stromberg falls that far, right?

Did another with a typical Pats 2nd round trade-up to grab Brian Branch. I don't think Bill would go secondary on back to back picks, but he seems too good to pass up. Still get Mac weapons with Schoonmaker and Mims in the 3rd, a falling edge in the 4th, and some line depth on Day 3.

64130



64132
 
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Section15Box113

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Inside Lou Gorman's Head
Took a shot at it as we gear up for round 2.

Was looking to trade up for Downs and got lucky when he fell to me at 46. Not completely sold on Bergeron, but glad to get a tackle at 76 and happy with the double dip with Morris. Schoonmaker, edge help late, and two new specialists. While I ended up making more picks than the roster will likely absorb (we’re not bringing in 14 drafted guys!), would be pretty happy with this group.

64139
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,258
Took a shot at it as we gear up for round 2.

Was looking to trade up for Downs and got lucky when he fell to me at 46. Not completely sold on Bergeron, but glad to get a tackle at 76 and happy with the double dip with Morris. Schoonmaker, edge help late, and two new specialists. While I ended up making more picks than the roster will likely absorb (we’re not bringing in 14 drafted guys!), would be pretty happy with this group.

View attachment 64139
Not NEARLY enough interior lineman-slash-Easter Michigan guys.
 

Devizier

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Setting aside the later rounds (4+ always a crapshoot) seems like the draft prognosticators missed early on the WRs (most picked much later than projected) and late on the TEs, excepting Washington.