My feel from looking at stuff is that basically we're likely to have to pick between getting a tier 1 WR (JSN, Flowers, Addison, etc.) or a tier 1 OT (Johnson, Wright, Jones, Jones, Harrison). Only way I see you could get 2 is trading back from 14 into the early 20s with 1 team, then trading up from 46 to the early 30s with another team.... and even then you need some luck, as they may all go rd. 1.
Agreed and this is also why I end up hating all my mock drafts where I take a corner in the 1st. I feel OK not coming away with Zay and taking some shots at the second tier WRs in Day 2, but at OT it gets ugly very quickly. And I keep finding myself looking at the board at #46/#76/#107 and liking the available corners.
yeah, you got an entire late 2nd in extra value in the move down (about 95 points by the Rich Hill chart, equivalent to the 57th pick), and unperpaid on the move up (about a late 4th worth, but Hill generally says trading into the 1st costs about a 5th in premium so probably more like an early 4th or late 3rd.
Without doing my own analysis and simply reading here and elsewhere, that #24 slot seems like a Goldilocks position to drop down into (or really anywhere in that range).
I think 20 or 21 would be ideal in terms of where you'd want to be, but that 24 is the spot that makes the most sense in that JAX likely wants to add an impact player and their 2nd is a pick with real value but not so much value they wouldn't part with it.
Not sure that makes sense as a strategy as you're both eliminating guys they are lower on, And guys they are higher on. All you're really seeing is... What does the draft look like if we reach by a full round on basically every board.
I don’t think it’s any less scientific than finding a mock where CJ Stroud is available at 14. I was more curios if the depth of the draft and seeing if I would run out of finding interesting guys. I’m not under the illusion that it’s perfect.
I think it’s just another way to express opinions about the draft, kind of a combination of expressing prayer/position preferences and thinking through different ways the Pats could approach position groups early/late. I know for me, I was initially really hoping to see them go after edge and CB early, but seeing the possibilities to get quality guys at those spots later in the draft I’m now having dreams of JSN or Kincaid in round 1 followed by Schoonmaker in the 3rd. Plus, it’s just kinda fun.
I see. I've always found the whole mock draft thing kinda funny. There are a million of them out there, each one is updated radically like every two days, and combined they have the Pats taking, no joke, about 35 different players.
for the 3 I posted immediately prior to your post, I was playing with where they draft OT. First one was BPA and didn’t get an OT until 135. In the next Carter fell to 14 and I played that out. Still took an OT at 46 and then again later in the draft. In the third one, I took an OT at 14. I like all 3 but find that WR dries up quickly regardless.
mostly they are fun, but also they can give you an idea of how stuff might fall based on different draft boards, and simulations that often take into account team need, etc.
Norm, I'm curious why you would spend that much high draft capital on a running back and guard? Obviously wouldn't kill us to have some depth there, and I totally get if you're not enamored with the tackle options available where you picked, but it seems like a waste of opportunity with the other needs.
