2023 Mocks

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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Is it too early for this.... probably, but I like doing Mocks and starting 7 weeks out makes for some fun looking back to see who skyrocketed up boards in the post-combine leadup.
People seem to enjoy this too, so for those who don't know there are a few simulators:
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/
https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator
https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock-nfl-mock-draft-simulator/

Fun to experiment with different boards and settings.

For fun I'll kick it off with one of each.

PFN: No settings to change, but I do limit myself on trades, I only trade on the clock, and I only accept or reject offers made to me:
So this is the one I did today that was so ridiculous at the top I decided to start the thread just to post it:
14: Jalen Carter DT Georgia
46: Darnell Wright OT Tenn
76: Traded to MIN for 87 and 177 and a 2024 4th.
87: Jack Campbell LB Iowa
107: Sydney Brown S Illinois
117: Traded to DAL for 129 and 163
129: Olusegun Oluwatimi OL Michigan
135: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
163: Michael Wilson WR Stanford
177: Chase Brown RB Illinois
184: Hunter Luepke RB/FB/TE ND St.
192: Cameron Mitchell CB Northwestern
210: Tyson Bagent QB Shepherd
258: Jake Moody K Michigan


PFF:
Okay, tweaked the setting slightly to increase positional value, and move a tiny bit towards PFF from public based on how last year turned out.
For trades only made with interested teams and only if the initial ask was over 60% likely acceptance. (interstingly very few interested teams for most of my picks post 14)

14: Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
46: Adetomiwa Adebawore DL Northwestern
76: Luke Wypler OC Ohio State
107: A.T. Perry WR Wake Forest
117: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
135: KJ Henry- Edge Clemson
183: Antonio Mafi OG UCLA
186: Jonah Tavai DT San Diego St.
191: Zack Kuntz TE Old Dominion
209: McClendon Curtis OL Chatanooga
257: Jake Moody K Michigan


FS:
No trades, Shoup draft board:
14. Anthony Richardson QB Florida
46: Darnell Washington TE Georgia
76: DJ Turner CB Michigan
117: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
135: Olusegun Oluwatimi OL Michigan

Stopped at the 4th round, not sure if it's another feature they made pay or if it's just broken.
 
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Carbo Loading

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I just tried a PFF mock with similar settings to what you did and came up with this:

Trade - Traded 14,107,186 to Detroit for 18,48,153
18: Broderick Jones - T Georgia
46: Tyrique Stevenson - CB Miami
48: Adetomiwa Adebwore - EDGE Northwestern
Trade - Traded 76,183,191 to Indy for 79,106
79: Nathaniel Dell - WR Houston
106: Michael Wilson - WR Stanford
117: Luke Schoonmaker - TE Michigan
135: Deuce Vaughn - RB Kansas St
153: Zack Kuntz - TE ODU
209: Clayton Tune - QB Houston
257: Jake Moody - K Michigan

I don't think they would ever take all offense except one
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,254
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    WR Ohio State
  • 46.
    Deonte Banks
    CB Maryland

  • 76.
    Julius Brents
    CB Kansas State

  • 107.
    Wanya Morris
    OT Oklahoma

  • 129.
    Alex Forsyth
    OC Oregon
  • 135.
    Jake Moody
    K Michigan

  • 2024 PIT 2nd

  • Mostly no idea what I’m doing. Thoughts?



 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
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I know the Pats need at OT, but I just can’t seem to get through the first three rounds of a mock without going JSN, edge, CB. Given the weakness of the tackle class and how many good edges and CBS there are, I’m thinking I would rather just see Bill throw some money at the offensive line than overdraft a tackle. Something like this would make me really happy:

62090
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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I know the Pats need at OT, but I just can’t seem to get through the first three rounds of a mock without going JSN, edge, CB. Given the weakness of the tackle class and how many good edges and CBS there are, I’m thinking I would rather just see Bill throw some money at the offensive line than overdraft a tackle. Something like this would make me really happy:
Isn't it kind of funny that a few years ago, we would have said we'd much rather throw money at a FA WR and let BB / Scar develop an OL mid-round pick?
 

Average Game James

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Isn't it kind of funny that a few years ago, we would have said we'd much rather throw money at a FA WR and let BB / Scar develop an OL mid-round pick?
Generically that’s probably still the case for me. If this was an average class for every position I’d want to see Bill draft OL and CB and sign WR in free agency. Fortunately, whatever I might think of Bill’s recent draft record, I’m not worried he will reach based on perceived need at a position.
 

Cellar-Door

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Isn't it kind of funny that a few years ago, we would have said we'd much rather throw money at a FA WR and let BB / Scar develop an OL mid-round pick?
not at tackle though. Bill has always gone for 1st round picks at LT (or briefly a free agent)
 

chilidawg

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Jan 22, 2015
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Cultural hub of the universe
I know the Pats need at OT, but I just can’t seem to get through the first three rounds of a mock without going JSN, edge, CB. Given the weakness of the tackle class and how many good edges and CBS there are, I’m thinking I would rather just see Bill throw some money at the offensive line than overdraft a tackle. Something like this would make me really happy:

View attachment 62090
I like grabbing both a punter and kicker. With lots of late round picks (probably more by the time BB is done trading back) those seem like potential impact investments.
 

Cellar-Door

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I like grabbing both a punter and kicker. With lots of late round picks (probably more by the time BB is done trading back) those seem like potential impact investments.
we don't actually have 257 BTW, all the mocks have it because that was the projection, but they announced comp picks yesterday and we didn't get one for Bolden. So no 7th at all,
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

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Nov 13, 2013
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I too like @Average Game James tried to grab a T in the beginning rounds, but it is difficult with some of the names out there in other positions. I'd love to see them pursue 1 or 2 in FA as well. Here's mine, and it's far from perfect:

021: Trade down, pick up an extra pick. JSN was off the board. Went Addison.

046: Reports of interviews with him & Pats. Reportedly went well.

053: My attempt to get a LB who can cover, and get more athletic at the position.

076: DMC 'replacement'

107: Would love to pick an 'outside' corner, but I'll go with his athleticism in the slot.

117: Upgrade position, skilled blocker.

135: See 053.

183: Solid 3rd-down back.

186: DL depth

191: QB lottery ticket

209: Interior OL depth

257: We can ignore this one, seeing how we don't actually own this pick.62104
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,254
This is a 4-round mock I would take:


  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    WR Ohio State
  • 58.
    Darnell Wright
    OT Tennessee
  • 76.
    Julius Brents
    CB Kansas State

  • 90.
    Sam LaPorta
    TE Iowa
  • 2024 LAC 1st
  • 2024 BAL 2nd
 

Cellar-Door

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Decided I'll do one every week

The Six week out draft (same setup as the original post except I upped it to 70% on trade w/ PFF because I checked the Rich Hill chart and 60% was always a huge ripoff in my favor)

PFN:
14: Traded to LAR for: 36, 69, 2024 1st, 2024 3rd
36: Dawand Jones OT- OK
46- Traded to WAS for 47 and 118
47- Zay Flowers WR- BC
69- Dalton Kincaid TE- UT
76- Traded with 187 for 79 and 138
79- Sydney Brown- S- IL
107- Darius Rush- CB- SC
117- DJ Johnson- Edge- Oregon
118- Ricky Stromberg- OC- Arkansas
135- Dontayvion Wicks- WR- Virginia
138- Myles Brooks- CB- LA Tech
184- Luke Schoonmaker- TE- MI
187- see trade of 76.
192- Cody Wooden-DT- Auburn
210- Matt Turk- P- OK
245- Jake Moody-K-MI

Lol, i can already hear the screams from WEEI callers if this happened, but honestly I really like that draft, wish I could have gotten Wright at 36, but still, feel like we hit all the keys, potential starting tackle, versatile WR, athletic WR mid-rounds, two TEs one move, one a better blocker, couple DBs, specialists, etc. Plus some good 2024 picks.


PFF:
14- Traded to WAS w/ 2024 5th for 16, 97, 2024 3rd
16- Traded with 257 (placeholder for Jonnu pick) to DET for 18, 81, 193
18- Devon Witherspoon- CB- Illinois
46- Darnell Wright- OT- Tenn
76- Andre Carter- Edge- Army
81-AT Perry- WR- Wake Forest
97- Michael Wilson- WR- Stanford
107- Blake Freeland- OT- BYU
117- Luke Schoonmaker-TE-MI
135- Zack Kuntz-TE- Old Dominion
183- Antonio Mafi- OG- UCLA
186- Ochaun MAthis- Edge- Nebraska
191- Chammari Conner- FS- VA Tech
193- Ethan Evans- P- Wingate
209- Jake Moody- K- MI

THis came out interesting, also found a key flaw in the PFF trade mechanism. Won't trade a future pick in the same round for a pick, which is crazy, so a team interested in an early 6th won't trade a 2024 6th for it, which they 100% would in real life.

Fanspeak: Switched to draft diamond board as Shoup hasn't updated in 2 weeks. Also, think I might drop this in future weeks, thing is a mess.
14- Anthony Richardson- QB- FL
46- Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa
76- Jack Campbell- LB- Iowa
107- Luke Wypler- C- Ohio State
117- Dontayvion Wicks- WR- VA
135- Wanya Morris- OT- Oklahoma
184- Myles Brooks- CB- LA Tech
187- Will Mallory- TE- Miami
192- Ronnie Hickman- S- Ohio State
210- Zack Kuntz- TE- Old Dominion
 

Anthologos

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Jun 4, 2017
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I like that first mock, because I think the Rams pick will be high next year. But that seems like an awful lot of players to draft…
 

Cellar-Door

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I like that first mock, because I think the Rams pick will be high next year. But that seems like an awful lot of players to draft…
definitely a lot with 13, but it's really 11 because you probably don't count the specialists as they'll either beat out a guy who gets cut or not make the team.

2022 we drafted 10, 2021 was 8, 2020 was 10 (inclding a specialist), 2019 was 10 including a specialist, 2018 was 9.
Highest recent ones were 2015 with 11 players.
Closest peer to this if we did 13 (2 specialists) would be 2010 when we drafted 12 players (1 specialist), or 2009 when we drafted 12 players (no specialist)
 

Anthologos

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Jun 4, 2017
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Some of those years are depressing to view. I guess 11 is fine as you said with specialists…I just am always tempted to package some and move up in next years draft. But I know nothing.
 

Cellar-Door

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Some of those years are depressing to view. I guess 11 is fine as you said with specialists…I just am always tempted to package some and move up in next years draft. But I know nothing.
On the other hand the two big years right in a row turned out to be great drafts:
2009: Chung, Vollmer, Edelman, Butler
2010: McCourty, Gronk, Spikes, Larsen, Murderer.

Edit- though yeah in real life I really doubt Bill makes 13 picks, problem is with PFN they don't offer you a future pick for a current pick, it's always at least 1 current pick, so under the setup I used I couldn't move them. In an ideal scenario, 1-3 of the 180-195 picks gets moved for future, or combined to move up in the 5th.
 

Anthologos

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Jun 4, 2017
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Ahh that makes sense. You were hamstrung by the parameters.
Still like the thought. Pick up quality starters (hopefully) and add a potentially high pick for next year.
 

Carbo Loading

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I messed around with a PFF mock today what do you think?

14: Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
46: Traded along with 117 and 209 to Arizona for 34
34: Dawand Jones T OSU
76: Traded along with 135 to KC for 63
63: Traded to Den for 67 and 140
67: Keeanu Benton (SMU binkie) DT Wisconsin
107: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
140: Deuce Vaughn RB Kansas St
183: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR W. Virginia
186: Stetson Bennett QB Georgia
191: Chandler Zavala OG NC State
257: Jake Moody K Michigan

No trades for futures, but the PFF engine for future trades is messed up. I didn't know much about Bryce Ford-Wheaton, but he's got size.
 

Cellar-Door

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I messed around with a PFF mock today what do you think?

14: Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
46: Traded along with 117 and 209 to Arizona for 34
34: Dawand Jones T OSU
76: Traded along with 135 to KC for 63
63: Traded to Den for 67 and 140
67: Keeanu Benton (SMU binkie) DT Wisconsin
107: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
140: Deuce Vaughn RB Kansas St
183: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR W. Virginia
186: Stetson Bennett QB Georgia
191: Chandler Zavala OG NC State
257: Jake Moody K Michigan

No trades for futures, but the PFF engine for future trades is messed up. I didn't know much about Bryce Ford-Wheaton, but he's got size.
some of my favorites in there (Witherspoon, Schoonmaker, I like BFW late) Personally I don't like Vaughn at all, he's absurdly small, his combine explosion test (jumping) scores were pretty poor and he skipped the running and agility tests, which for a guy that small I'd assume he'd be all over them if he thought he'd grade out well. I think he doesn't have an NFL role.

Otherwise though I generally like that draft.
 

sgfeer

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Mar 14, 2016
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I messed around with a PFF mock today what do you think?

14: Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
46: Traded along with 117 and 209 to Arizona for 34
34: Dawand Jones T OSU
76: Traded along with 135 to KC for 63
63: Traded to Den for 67 and 140
67: Keeanu Benton (SMU binkie) DT Wisconsin
107: Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
140: Deuce Vaughn RB Kansas St
183: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR W. Virginia
186: Stetson Bennett QB Georgia
191: Chandler Zavala OG NC State
257: Jake Moody K Michigan

No trades for futures, but the PFF engine for future trades is messed up. I didn't know much about Bryce Ford-Wheaton, but he's got size.
Ford Wheaton ran 4.38 combine. Has trouble separating. Will make tough contested catches then drop easy one. Worth a look late, could help on special teams as well as he played on some cover
Units. Frustrating player
 

snowmanny

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Is Jake Moody really lasting until the seventh round? He seems like a sure thing.
 

Carbo Loading

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some of my favorites in there (Witherspoon, Schoonmaker, I like BFW late) Personally I don't like Vaughn at all, he's absurdly small, his combine explosion test (jumping) scores were pretty poor and he skipped the running and agility tests, which for a guy that small I'd assume he'd be all over them if he thought he'd grade out well. I think he doesn't have an NFL role.

Otherwise though I generally like that draft.
I looked at Vaughn as a gadget play guy. But was probably the pick I liked the least
Is Jake Moody really lasting until the seventh round? He seems like a sure thing.
PFF hates drafting special teamers. Even at 257 they only give a C+ for the pick
 

Cellar-Door

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Is Jake Moody really lasting until the seventh round? He seems like a sure thing.
who knows, kicker is incredibly hard to predict. Last year a kicker went in the 4th, 2021 one went in the 5th (but he wasn't consensus #1, and the other contender went undrafted), 2020 has 3 kickers, The Pats in the 5th (definitely NOT the #1 on most boards), one in the late 6th, one in the 7th round comps, 2019 had 2 kickers both in the 5th, 2018 had 2 kickers, 5th and 7th.

So... yeah he might go in the 5th, or he might go undrafted, it's really hard to tell.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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I love Schoonmaker btw. He is a guy I will be much higher on than consensus.

Dawand Jones to me isn’t a fit. Bill typically doesn’t draft guys who are not that athletic at OT. Now he will sign and trade for them but only after they have proven they can play. Dawand is also a super inconsistent run blocker. If they had a more mobile QB I’d be fine with him but because he has absolutely 0 recovery he’s going to give up quick pressures. When he’s beat he is beat.

I think you got a lot of good guys - if you switched Darnell Wright for Dawand that is an A+ draft. Also who gives a fuck what PFF thinks. Their draft grades can go straight to the baker as the Romans used to say. Great job!!
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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Just a reminder that Bryce Ford-Wheaton is a high character special teams demon so even if he never develops more he will upgrade things as a gunner. Great pick especially at 183.
 

nolasoxfan

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Why does it seem like every mock in this thread has the Pats picking Schoonmaker and Moody? Is there some weird UM alum bias going on here?
 
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67YAZ

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Why does it seem like every mock in this thread has the Pats picking Schoonmaker and Moody? Is there some weird UM alum bias going on here?
The Pats have drafted a Wolverine 4 years running, a total of 5 players. Harbaugh is clearly one of those college coaches that Belichick trusts to tell him the truth about players and respects how he develops them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why does it seem like every mock in this thread has the Pats picking Schoonmaker and Moody? Is there some weird UM alum bias going on here?
Schoonmaker is mostly because he looks like a good TE who can block and catch, but also is available a lot later than the other guys with that profile, so with the Patriots needing that skillset and a deep TE class he'll show up a lot because he's so far down a lot of boards. Moody I think is just... best kicker on the board. Though MI is a well Bill has gone to repeatedly recently
 

SMU_Sox

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There are only a handful of decent blocking in-line tight ends this year. 1 is Darnell Washington who is a good player but is probably never going to be an adequate route runner. He’s basically the high end version of Jonnu Smith. That’s valuable but for where he is going to go isn’t an extraordinary value. Schoonmaker has a 9.77 RAS. He’s underdeveloped as a pass catcher but he reminds me of Foster Moreau coming out. You can probably get him late day 2 or maybe even day 3. They need a good blocking in-line tight end. They tend to go for highly athletic guys. It seems like a good fit and good value.

Michigan has 3-4 fits for them this year. Both Ryan Hayes and their center are day 3 types they might be interested in.
 

nolasoxfan

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The Pats have drafted a Wolverine 4 years running, a total of 5 players. Harbaugh is clearly one of those college coaches that Belichick trusts to tell him the truth about players and respects how he develops them.
Schoonmaker is mostly because he looks like a good TE who can block and catch, but also is available a lot later than the other guys with that profile, so with the Patriots needing that skillset and a deep TE class he'll show up a lot because he's so far down a lot of boards. Moody I think is just... best kicker on the board. Though MI is a well Bill has gone to repeatedly recently
There are only a handful of decent blocking in-line tight ends this year. 1 is Darnell Washington who is a good player but is probably never going to be an adequate route runner. He’s basically the high end version of Jonnu Smith. That’s valuable but for where he is going to go isn’t an extraordinary value. Schoonmaker has a 9.77 RAS. He’s underdeveloped as a pass catcher but he reminds me of Foster Moreau coming out. You can probably get him late day 2 or maybe even day 3. They need a good blocking in-line tight end. They tend to go for highly athletic guys. It seems like a good fit and good value.

Michigan has 3-4 fits for them this year. Both Ryan Hayes and their center are day 3 types they might be interested in.
Thank you for these replies. Seeing Schoonmaker and Moody on nearly every Pats mock left me curious. Now I better understand why they have been consistently selected.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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I really like this one. I traded back with Buffalo and got their 27, 59, 91, and 130 + a 2024 4th rounder for pick 14.

I went:

27) Darnell Wright, OT
46) Jack Campbell, ILB
59) Keeanu Benton, IDL
76) Isaiah McGuire, IDL/Edge
91) A.T. Perry, WR
107) Luke Schoonmaker, TE
117) Michael Wilson, WR
130) K.J. Henry OLB/edge
135) Moro Ojomo, IDL
183) Eric Gray, receiving back
186) Ricky Stromberg, IOL//C
191) Puka Nacua, WR
209) Anthony Bradford IOL
257) Jake Moody, K.

A.T. Perry can play anywhere and be a good 2/3 WR. Wilson if he stays healthy reminds me a ton of Michael Thomas. Puka is getting slept on. He is great with RAC, runs, contested catches. He has some N'Keal but the guy he was supposed to be coming out.

Jack Campbell is imo a first round quality Mike and a prototype.

I added a starting OT in Darnell Wright as well as a starting caliber center in Ricky Stromberg and depth at IOL with Anthony Bradford.

Eric Gray is a really good receiving back.

Luke Schnoonmaker is the in-line tight end they need.

The IDLs and edges are also scheme fits for the Patriots and because none of the corners fell to me I kept adding studs there. McGuire is a lot like Wise but with more power and athleticism. K.J. Henry is super athletic but needs development. Has all the traits you want in an OLB pass rusher.

Benton and Ojomo are super strong guys who are excellent vs the run and have some juice as pass rushers.


62357
 

Anthologos

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Jun 4, 2017
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Ok is that really a photo of Jack Campbell, LB? He looks like he’s addressing the Midwestern Regional Executive Sales managers on the subject of “Know Your Cheese”
 

ManhattanRedSox

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Tried to get Mac a bunch of toys to see if he is worth extending at QB, Tomlinson so I can see LDT sitting on the sidelines of Gillette again (I'm a petty asshole), O'Connell to keep Zappe honest, Zack Kuntz because of his name and potential, Thomas bx I feel like a UAB guy at 192 could turn into something, and Juice because that is a cool name for a center who is probably pepetually grumpy and gives zero fu(ks.
 

SMU_Sox

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@SMU_Sox is that a realistic trade?

That's a ton to give up to move 13 spots.
Probably not, no. And making 14 picks is a little much. What I’m trying to do is show fits in ranges. I’ll start making tiers soon as well. Day 1 OTs, Day 2 OTs, Day 3 OTs etc.
 

Cellar-Door

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67YAZ

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Kept the trades in the 60-70% likelihood range to keep some semblance of reality. Still, trying to navigate up was a frustrating mess. So I moved back a couple times and scooped up 4 2024 picks.

No way Wright lasts to 46. But I have a feeling Branch will be very much under consideration in round 1.

62398
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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My preference when I do mine is no trades. The trades suggested on the Pats friendly mocks, are too one sided.
 

67YAZ

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Ok is that really a photo of Jack Campbell, LB? He looks like he’s addressing the Midwestern Regional Executive Sales managers on the subject of “Know Your Cheese”
Looks like he's being introduced as the new head coach for SW Missouri State.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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Dec 12, 2007
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62435

I liked the way this one turned out and how the board fell. I kept the trades in the high 60-70% range based on the discussion here. Get it done Trader Bill! :cool:

I wasn't sure on Ivan Pace as I don't remember seeing him being discussed much here (sorry if I've missed it). He looks pretty nasty in the highlight reels, if not without size concerns. Should be a special teams force at least one would think.

I didn't plan on it going in to the mock, but I liked the additions to the secondary that were available when the Pats were on the clock.

The more of these I do, the more convinced I am that trading down and potentially out of the first round altogether (via multiple trades) is the best approach. I've always been a proponent of this approach generally, but it seems to fit the way the talent is distributed this year in particular (at least that's the sense I've been getting from the discussion).

Obviously, a team needs to find a trade partner who is willing to give up draft capital to move up and that limits the opportunities available. However, I'd love to see the Pats drop back multiple times and accumulate additional Round Two picks (day 2 more generally) so that they can move around the board and target the best players available vs. positional need.

I've almost started a new thread on this topic and tried to do a bit of basic googling regarding the highest number of "trade downs" in a draft by a single team and/or a list of teams who've done so the most in draft history, but I haven't been able to find much.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1637570670845362178?s=20


Overall: He isn’t good in coverage and he won’t be a scheme fit for everyone but if you want a downhill attacker and you like to blitz or rush your ILBs this is your guy. When he is attacking downhill he either blows up linemen or avoids them. Should be a ST demon. I don’t think he is a starter but should be a role-player. He might start - his size though is an issue. 6.49-6.5.

I love Ivan Pace Jr. I just did him this weekend.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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I want whoever had that mock up there giving us the Rams 2024 1st rounder.

That is in the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes.

No chance I see the Rams doing it though, that team is blowed up and rebuilding next year. If Stafford has trouble getting healthy, they may not win 3 games.