Congrats to Scott Rolen.
only 15 returning candidates to the ballot next year seems like a very low amount. Seems like most players have either been elected if they're worthy, or failed to get 5% because they weren't close, and not too many are in ballot purgatory anymore.
2023: 15 returners (28 total names on ballot)
2022: 17 (30)
2021: 14 (25)
2020: 14 (32)
2019: 15 (35)
2018: 14 (33)
2017: 15 (34) (final year for players grandfathered into the 15-year eligibility period - Lee Smith ages off)
2016: 17 (32)
2015: 17 (34) (first year of 10-year eligibility period)
2014: 17 (36)
OK so I guess 15 is actually totally normal. How have each year's new entrants fared?
2023: 14 new names, 12 drop off, 2 return (Beltran, F. Rodriguez)
2022: 13 new names, 10 drop off, 2 return (Rollins, A-Rod), 1 elected (Ortiz)
2021: 11 new names, 8 drop off, 3 return (Buehrle, Hudson, Hunter)
2020: 18 new names, 16 drop off, 1 returns (Abreu), 1 elected (Jeter)
2019: 20 new names, 16 drop off, 2 return (Helton, Pettitte), 2 elected (Rivera, Halladay)
2018: 19 new names, 14 drop off, 3 return (Vizquel, Rolen, A. Jones), 2 elected (C. Jones, Thome)
2017: 19 new names, 16 drop off, 2 return (Guerrero, Manny), 1 elected (I. Rodriguez)
2016: 15 new names, 12 drop off, 2 return (Hoffman, Wagner), 1 elected (Griffey)
2015: 17 new names, 12 drop off, 2 return (Sheffield, Nomar), 3 elected (R. Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz)
2014: 19 new names, 14 drop off, 2 return (Mussina, Kent), 3 elected (Maddux, Glavine, F. Thomas)
And how about a "It was a journey" list? Closest calls to falling off of anyone who eventually would be enshrined, in the last 15-or-so ballots:
2011 Harold Baines 4.8% (2019 VC inductee)
2014 Larry Walker 10.2% (2020: 76.6%)
2018 Scott Rolen 10.2% (2023: 76.3%)
2014 Fred McGriff 11.7% (2023 VC inductee)
2013 Alan Trammell 13.4% (2018 VC inductee)
1999 Bert Blyleven 14.1% (2011: 79.7%)
2014 Mike Mussina 20.3% (2019: 76.7%)
2009 Tim Raines 22.6% (2017: 86.0%)
2014 Edgar Martinez 25.2% (2019: 85.4%)
Todd Helton, who will probably make it next year, got 16.5% in 2019. Billy Wagner was down to 10.2%, also in 2019. Sheffield got 11.1% in 2018. And if Andruw Jones eventually gets the votes, he'll have the closest shave of anyone recent who's not named Baines: in his debut in 2018, he got only 7.3%.