2023 Guardians: Contending Ugly

[Sad Sam Jones]

After 17 rookies helped take Cleveland to within one win of the ALCS in 2022, they entered this year as the team to beat in the AL Central. Veteran leadership and offensive upgrades were added to the starting lineup, where Josh Bell will fill a role that Franmil Reyes and a revolving door of others were unable to bolster at DH, and Mike Zunino gives Cleveland its first competent hitting catcher since the Yan Gomes era.

Rule changes for 2023 was supposed to favor Cleveland's aggressive two-baserunners-and-a-cloud-of-dust style of offense that doesn't focus on the three true outcomes... and they do the league in stolen bases while being the hardest team to strike out, but they've struggled to convert that into runners crossing the plate so far and rank 12th in the AL in scoring. They knew going in that Steven Kwan and Myles Straw would need to run to get beyond first base, but it's the lack of slugging from guys like Oscar Gonzalez, Josh Bell and Josh Naylor that's leaving too many guys stranded on base.

The team didn't plan on many personnel changes on the pitching staff, but injuries knocked both Tristan McKenzie (teres major strain) and Aaron Civale (oblique strain) out of the rotation early, so they've relied on rookies who were still supposed to be AAA to start over 30% of their games so far. That's come in the form of Hunter Gaddis, Peyton Battenfield and Logan Allen so far, with Xzavion Curry leading the team with 12 innings out of the bullpen.

Cleveland management routinely proves me wrong when I disagree with them (most notably with Steven Kwan and Sam Hentges on the current team), but I felt their biggest mistakes over the winter were moves they didn't make – not trading Amed Rosario and Zach Plesac. Rosario may have turned his season around today with a 4-hit, 4-run game in which he just missed hitting for the cycle by about 15 feet on a foul ball into the left field seats. He'd missed most of last week with back soreness and struggled at the plate until today. Regardless of how he performs the rest of the season though, Cleveland has invested much of their future in middle-infield prospects and Rosario is playing out his final arb season. Meanwhile, Cleveland locked up one middle-infielder long-term this spring with a 7yr/$106.5M extension. They signed Jose Ramirez to a 7yr/$141M at the start of last season. Even with Gimenez able to play stellar defense on either side of second base, they're left with at least a half-dozen legitimate prospects to fill one spot long-term or be used for trade value. It's possible Gabriel Arias could hit for enough power to shift to first base or right field, but Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, Jose Tena and Juan Brito are most likely going to be tripping over each other for one starting spot in Cleveland. If Rosario continues to hit and Cleveland finds themselves battling for a playoff spot midseason, it's going to be difficult to trade him, but it also makes no sense to extend him. I'd have preferred they give Arias and Freeman a good shot at securing the shortstop job during the first half, and then Rocchio could enter the equation this summer if neither did.

Plesac might look a little more necessary to the roster for now with the injuries to the starting staff, but Civale should be ready to return in early May (the question with him has become how long he can remain healthy) and McKenzie has started throwing again with the expectation of an early June return. Logan Allen, the team's 2nd round pick in 2020, looked great in his MLB debut today (6 ip, 1 er, 1 bb, 8 k) and is the most likely of the rookies to spend the rest of the year in the rotation. Cody Morris, who looked sharp in his late-season debut in 2022 is out with the same injury and same timeline as Dr. Sticks, although he's another who's struggled to stay on the field.

But wait, there's more... Even with fireballing starter Daniel Espino continuing to spend most of his minor league career on the IL, they could have another starter who hits triple-digits arrive in Cleveland this summer. 2021 1st rounder Gavin Williams is dominating AA right now (0.63 ERA, 12.6 K/9, taking a no-hitter into the 5th inning in two of his three starts). After reaching AA last year, he could be on the Shane Bieber track to the majors – Akron in April, Columbus in May, Cleveland in June. But wait, there's more... 2021 5th round pick Tanner Bibee, who's a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect, has continued pitching in AAA just as he did in Hi-A and AA last year. So far in his pro career, he's 10-2, 2.13, 2.1 bb/9, 11.3 k/9. There's no reason to pay Plesac millions to be a back-of-the-rotation starter with so many intriguing options on the verge of the show.

Some more thoughts and observations:

• Mike Zunino is fully recovered from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and reaching base at a .400 clip through 15 games. However, he's also the worst catcher Cleveland has had behind the plate since the early days of Victor Martinez. He can't block pitches which has led to 15 wild pitches (2nd most in MLB).

• Josh Bell got off to a terrible start (3-for-38 to kick off his Cleveland career), but has been the Guardians' hottest hitter of late. With a 3-hit game today and his 2nd home run, he's up to an almost respectable .738 OPS.

• Steven Kwan is seeing more pitches than anyone else in the game, raising his walk rate this year, but his strikeout rate has jumped from 9.7% to 14.4%. He hasn't been elite at keeping at-bats alive the way he was last year (a drop in contact rate from 80% to 67% on pitches outside the zone).

• Gabriel Arias had a strong spring and won the utility infield spot over Tyler Freeman, who struggled. Since the start of the season, they have completely flipped, and they really can't have much more patience with Arias' .590 OPS, while Freeman has a 1.118 OPS in Columbus (and two nice games in Cleveland during doubleheaders). Freeman might not be the sexiest of the middle infield prospects, but he seems to be a finished product and should be in Cleveland regardless of where Arias is, because...

• Cleveland made the head-scratching decision to carry three catchers on the MLB roster from the start of the season. Since Zunino has been both good and healthy and the others have looked like dollar bin backups, there's really been no advantage to be had there. They want Bo Naylor playing every day in AAA, and he's continued to draw walks and hit for power (.850 OPS). It will be interesting to see when they decide that Naylor has the most to gain by working with the MLB staff, even if it means spending most of his time on the bench.

• Gaddis topped Curry for the last spot in the bullpen in spring training. They're both starters, so he also won the opportunity to fill McKenzie's spot in the rotation when he was injured a couple of days before opening day. Among Cleveland's upper level pitching prospects, Gaddis has one of the lowest ceilings, only looked good when facing Oakland and was demoted this week. Cleveland will need to decide later this week which two of Gaddis, Allen, Battenfield and Curry will get starts until the veterans get healthy. I think any future for Gaddis is in the pen and they should have given Curry the rotation spot from the start.

• Tim Herrin made the bullpen as Cleveland's only lefty in the absence of Sam Hentges (shoulder inflammation). He can impress with upper-90s heat and a swing-and-miss slider, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Hentges is a couple of appearances into his rehab assignment and should be back in a week or two.

• The bullpen is still solid and settled, but don't be surprised if former failed prospect Touki Toussaint resurfaces in Cleveland. I love seeing the Guardians attempt these reclamation projects, and they can because they have enough homegrown depth in the major league bullpen they don't need to count on carrying base-level veterans in AAA. Toussaint is now in his fourth organization, but still only 26. His days of trying to make it as an MLB starter are over, but coming out of the pen, he's currently throwing strikes (4 walks, 8 hits allowing in 14.1 ip).

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The pitching factory keeps on churning. Tanner Bibee will make his debut for the Guardians this afternoon. He was a 5th round pick in the 2021, but will be only the third pitcher from the draft to reach the majors. His pro numbers from my previous post: 10-2, 2.13, 2.1 bb/9, 11.3 k/9.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

With all the AAA/MLB shuffling, Gavin Williams has also been promoted to AAA. He made his debut during an educational day game this morning and pitched 5.1 shutout innings, 3 hits (all singles), 3 walks (2 in his last inning of work) and 6 strikeouts. I listened on the radio and it sounded like his curve was really impressive today. I'll almost be surprised if he's not in Cleveland before the end of July.

 

[EmeryThomas]

After 17 rookies helped take Cleveland to within one win of the ALCS in 2022, they entered this year as the team to beat in the AL Central. Veteran leadership and offensive upgrades were added to the starting lineup, where Josh Bell will fill a role that Franmil Reyes and a revolving door of others were unable to bolster at DH, and Mike Zunino gives Cleveland its first competent hitting catcher since the Yan Gomes era.

Rule changes for 2023 was supposed to favor Cleveland's aggressive two-baserunners-and-a-cloud-of-dust style of offense that doesn't focus on the three true outcomes... and they do the league in stolen bases while being the hardest team to strike out, but they've struggled to convert that into runners crossing the plate so far and rank 12th in the AL in scoring. They knew going in that Steven Kwan and Myles Straw would need to run to get beyond first base, but it's the lack of slugging from guys like Oscar Gonzalez, Josh Bell and Josh Naylor that's leaving too many guys stranded on base.

The team didn't plan on many personnel changes on the pitching staff, but injuries knocked both Tristan McKenzie (teres major strain) and Aaron Civale (oblique strain) out of the rotation early, so they've relied on rookies who were still supposed to be AAA to start over 30% of their games so far. That's come in the form of Hunter Gaddis, Peyton Battenfield and Logan Allen so far, with Xzavion Curry leading the team with 12 innings out of the bullpen.

Cleveland management routinely proves me wrong when I disagree with them (most notably with Steven Kwan and Sam Hentges on the current team), but I felt their biggest mistakes over the winter were moves they didn't make – not trading Amed Rosario and Zach Plesac. Rosario may have turned his season around today with a 4-hit, 4-run game in which he just missed hitting for the cycle by about 15 feet on a foul ball into the left field seats. He'd missed most of last week with back soreness and struggled at the plate until today. Regardless of how he performs the rest of the season though, Cleveland has invested much of their future in middle-infield prospects and Rosario is playing out his final arb season. Meanwhile, Cleveland locked up one middle-infielder long-term this spring with a 7yr/$106.5M extension. They signed Jose Ramirez to a 7yr/$141M at the start of last season. Even with Gimenez able to play stellar defense on either side of second base, they're left with at least a half-dozen legitimate prospects to fill one spot long-term or be used for trade value. It's possible Gabriel Arias could hit for enough power to shift to first base or right field, but Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, Jose Tena and Juan Brito are most likely going to be tripping over each other for one starting spot in Cleveland. If Rosario continues to hit and Cleveland finds themselves battling for a playoff spot midseason, it's going to be difficult to trade him, but it also makes no sense to extend him. I'd have preferred they give Arias and Freeman a good shot at securing the shortstop job during the first half, and then Rocchio could enter the equation this summer if neither did.

Plesac might look a little more necessary to the roster for now with the injuries to the starting staff, but Civale should be ready to return in early May (the question with him has become how long he can remain healthy) and McKenzie has started throwing again with the expectation of an early June return. Logan Allen, the team's 2nd round pick in 2020, looked great in his MLB debut today (6 ip, 1 er, 1 bb, 8 k) and is the most likely of the rookies to spend the rest of the year in the rotation. Cody Morris, who looked sharp in his late-season debut in 2022 is out with the same injury and same timeline as Dr. Sticks, although he's another who's struggled to stay on the field.

But wait, there's more... Even with fireballing starter Daniel Espino continuing to spend most of his minor league career on the IL, they could have another starter who hits triple-digits arrive in Cleveland this summer. 2021 1st rounder Gavin Williams is dominating AA right now (0.63 ERA, 12.6 K/9, taking a no-hitter into the 5th inning in two of his three starts). After reaching AA last year, he could be on the Shane Bieber track to the majors – Akron in April, Columbus in May, Cleveland in June. But wait, there's more... 2021 5th round pick Tanner Bibee, who's a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect, has continued pitching in AAA just as he did in Hi-A and AA last year. So far in his pro career, he's 10-2, 2.13, 2.1 bb/9, 11.3 k/9. There's no reason to pay Plesac millions to be a back-of-the-rotation starter with so many intriguing options on the verge of the show.

Some more thoughts and observations:

• Mike Zunino is fully recovered from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and reaching base at a .400 clip through 15 games. However, he's also the worst catcher Cleveland has had behind the plate since the early days of Victor Martinez. He can't block pitches which has led to 15 wild pitches (2nd most in MLB).

• Josh Bell got off to a terrible start (3-for-38 to kick off his Cleveland career), but has been the Guardians' hottest hitter of late. With a 3-hit game today and his 2nd home run, he's up to an almost respectable .738 OPS.

• Steven Kwan is seeing more pitches than anyone else in the game, raising his walk rate this year, but his strikeout rate has jumped from 9.7% to 14.4%. He hasn't been elite at keeping at-bats alive the way he was last year (a drop in contact rate from 80% to 67% on pitches outside the zone).

• Gabriel Arias had a strong spring and won the utility infield spot over Tyler Freeman, who struggled. Since the start of the season, they have completely flipped, and they really can't have much more patience with Arias' .590 OPS, while Freeman has a 1.118 OPS in Columbus (and two nice games in Cleveland during doubleheaders). Freeman might not be the sexiest of the middle infield prospects, but he seems to be a finished product and should be in Cleveland regardless of where Arias is, because...

• Cleveland made the head-scratching decision to carry three catchers on the MLB roster from the start of the season. Since Zunino has been both good and healthy and the others have looked like dollar bin backups, there's really been no advantage to be had there. They want Bo Naylor playing every day in AAA, and he's continued to draw walks and hit for power (.850 OPS). It will be interesting to see when they decide that Naylor has the most to gain by working with the MLB staff, even if it means spending most of his time on the bench.

• Gaddis topped Curry for the last spot in the bullpen in spring training. They're both starters, so he also won the opportunity to fill McKenzie's spot in the rotation when he was injured a couple of days before opening day. Among Cleveland's upper level pitching prospects, Gaddis has one of the lowest ceilings, only looked good when facing Oakland and was demoted this week. Cleveland will need to decide later this week which two of Gaddis, Allen, Battenfield and Curry will get starts until the veterans get healthy. I think any future for Gaddis is in the pen and they should have given Curry the rotation spot from the start.

• Tim Herrin made the bullpen as Cleveland's only lefty in the absence of Sam Hentges (shoulder inflammation). He can impress with upper-90s heat and a swing-and-miss slider, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Hentges is a couple of appearances into his rehab assignment and should be back in a week or two.

• The bullpen is still solid and settled, but don't be surprised if former failed prospect Touki Toussaint resurfaces in Cleveland. I love seeing the Guardians attempt these reclamation projects, and they can because they have enough homegrown depth in the major league bullpen they don't need to count on carrying base-level veterans in AAA. Toussaint is now in his fourth organization, but still only 26. His days of trying to make it as an MLB starter are over, but coming out of the pen, he's currently throwing strikes (4 walks, 8 hits allowing in 14.1 ip).

Thank you, sir.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Cleveland's offense is a tire fire and Rosario has yet to meet a potential rally he can't kill. Meanwhile, they have two middle infield prospects in Columbus who are destroying AAA pitching – Tyler Freeman is batting .333/.470/.500 (35-game on-base streak) while Brayan Rocchio is putting up a .363/.426/.500 line (15-game hitting streak).

If they're not willing to bench Rosario there's not a whole lot they can do besides be patient. I'm not really sure what's going on with top outfield prospect George Valera. He had hamate surgery in the offseason, but was ready to play in spring training (I thought ahead of schedule) before he wasn't. He was shut down with wrist discomfort and hasn't played yet, so the Guardians don't really have any outfield alternative but to continue platooning Gonzalez and Brennan and hope at least one of them warms up.

The one thing they could and should do is drop Cam Gallagher like a bad habit and begin the catching transition to Bo Naylor. Cleveland has counted on good defensive catchers who can't hit for so long, it's strange to see a catching tandem that can't block breaking pitches or throw out baserunners. At least Zunino provides a little offense, but Gallagher has no discernable major league skill. Naylor has maintained the changes he made in his plate approach for over a year now and has nearly 100 games at the AAA level now. I think whatever he would lose by not playing every day he would more than make up for by working with Cleveland's pitching staff and Sandy Alomar, while also giving the Guards a competent backstop.

Bad news for consensus top 25 MLB prospect Daniel Espino. He suffered shoulder discomfort early in the spring and had been shut down until recently. Shortly after he began throwing, he experienced more discomfort. He underwent surgery to repair the capsule in his throwing shoulder today and will be out for the next year. That mean's he'll end up going about two calendar years without pitching since he was first shut down after four AA starts in 2022. I've never gotten too caught up in the hype, because he always seemed like a high boom-or-bust candidate and when it comes to pitching prospects, Cleveland doesn't put all their eggs in one basket. Espino will also still be just 23 and in the upper minors when his rehab resumes next year.

Joey Cantillo – the only piece of the Mike Clevinger deal who hasn't reached Cleveland – faced 18 batters in his AA start tonight and struck out 13 of them (5 IP, 1 H, 2 BB). He's not a power pitcher, but his release is difficult to pick up, so he's sneaky fast, locates all his pitches and has a great Vulcan changeup. Gavin Williams is scheduled to make his second AAA start on Thursday. He pitched 5.1 scoreless in his first one.

With Thursday off, there's a good chance Sam Hentges will be activated from his IL trip with shoulder inflammation before their next game. If not, he should be back before the end of their weekend series with the Twins.

I don't mind the more balanced schedule – no one wants to spend 20% of their season against the Tigers and Royals, even if it does lead to a lot of wins. However, there's a lot of unbalanced scheduling within it. The Guardians have already finished their season series with the Mariners and Yankees, and yet they've only played three games total within the division. That will change over the next few weeks as 12 of their next 18 are against other AL Central teams. Still, a lot of their games against the White Sox and Royals are going to be clustered together this year, which can make a balanced schedule really unbalanced if opponents are especially hot or cold when you see them in consecutive weeks. Hopefully, they try to fix that in future seasons.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I wasn't able to listen to the game, but Gavin Williams went 5 innings for Columbus tonight and allowed just 1 hit – unfortunately, it was a home run, but a solo shot – 2 bb, 5 k. The minors cannot contain this kid. I imagine if Aaron Civale can get and stay healthy he'll still be in the rotation and I'm not sure what they do with Quantrill if he continues to do a solid job (as he has over his past 5 starts), but a July rotation of Bieber-McKenzie-Bibee-Allen-Williams would not upset me.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

Espino seems to be riding dangerously close to the Adam Miller express; I wouldn't give up on him entirely, but the track record of pitching prospects with that kind of injury history is very bad. IIRC, pitchers who get seriously injured prior to turning 24 are much more likely to get injured again.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

So I wasn't online for several hours today, checked the AAA game and made my previous post... then while I'm sitting in a drive-thru waiting on my food, I see the headline on my phone that Plesac had been sent down to AAA. Best friggin' news of the season so far! I love that they're willing to make decisive moves like this. It doesn't matter that 40% of the expected rotation is on the IL, or whether you've been part of the rotation for 4 years. If you don't get the job done, they'll find someone who will. It sounds like Battenfield will get the first opportunity, but Curry is still in the Cleveland bullpen and has outpitched him, Gaddis and Pilkington (I expect the latter to be claimed/traded in the next week after getting DFA'd).

 

[jon abbey]

So I wasn't online for several hours today, checked the AAA game and made my previous post... then while I'm sitting in a drive-thru waiting on my food, I see the headline on my phone that Plesac had been sent down to AAA. Best friggin' news of the season so far!

Heh, I figured you missed this after your previous post, but I didn't want to be the one to bring that very exciting news to you, I figured you'd get there soon enough.

 

[Wingack]

There isn't room for all these awesome starters. How do you think it will shake out @Sad Sam Jones ? (Please tell me Bibee stays in the rotation for my selfish fantasy baseball reasons).

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I certainly shouldn't be confused for a scout... I never thought Corey Kluber would have a major league career and more recently I hated Sam Hentges as a prospect. I'm mostly a results guy who gets sidetracked by limited looks at these guys, mostly as they pass through AA. There are also too many future moves that can't be predicted, but...

I see Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams as long-term starters in Cleveland alongside Triston McKenzie. Injuries will determine if all four of them become part of the same rotation this year or not.

I feel this will be Shane Bieber's last year in Cleveland or at the very least, his last full year. He's always approached it from a business perspective and played it year-to-year. Even if Cleveland could retain him with a top-of-the-market deal, I doubt they would because of the domino effect on other contracts and the risk of him breaking down. He has good enough stuff and a smart enough approach to pitch like a #1 for now, but he hasn't been the dominant ace he was a couple of years ago. I think they trade him over the winter before his walk year since (1) one year of him brings back more value than 2-3 months and (2) they'll be expecting to contend in 2024 and you can't trade your top starter midseason while you're in the race. It was the same approach they took with Francisco Lindor.

With that in mind, I think they'd be inclined to hold onto Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale as reliable veterans, although Civale's constant injuries make him hard to count on. As I mentioned previously, Cleveland also has a history of simultaneously being buyers and sellers at the trade deadline, and if they use one of those guys and/or Amed Rosario to land one of their bigger needs (like a good cost-controlled corner outfielder), it wouldn't surprise me. Either of them would make sense in the bullpen if they ever run into the "problem" of a rotation that's too good and healthy. Quantrill has history in the pen and Civale's performance drops off after extended looks. I don't see a relief role doing much for Zach Plesac and I think he's simply worn out his welcome in Cleveland. It was a colossal mistake to not move Plesac in the off-season for whatever they could get.

Hopefully, they get at least two more good relievers out of Cody Morris, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis and Peyton Battenfield and deal one or two of them while they still have value. I think that's the order I'd put them in, but I'd still like to see Morris given some leash as a starter if the opportunity is there.

Daniel Espino is simply a lottery ticket with an especially high potential payoff.

Joey Cantillo gives me the vibe of a polished guy who can lay waste to minor league hitters, but doesn't have a very high ceiling... yet he keeps pitching better and could be a Civale type. If all goes well, Justin Campbell can join the conversation by this time next year (6'7" righty who fits Cleveland's specialty as a strike-throwing college product who takes it to the next level if they make the mechanical adjustment to add another 3 mph to his fastball).

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Oscar "Sponge Bob" Gonzalez has been demoted to AAA. Tyler Freeman is up again and has been on fire in Columbus (.329/.468/.482). I don't really get Gonzalez being demoted though, because he, Will Brennan and Gabriel Arias have all been equally bad. Freeman and Arias are a bit redundant at their natural positions, but Arias is making his first official appearance in right field tonight and will likely platoon with Brennan there. Arias played a handful of games in left in Columbus last year and I think he played right a little in spring training. I guess I just don't see what he's done to deserve this opportunity and don't expect this to be an improvement unless the next step is to give Freeman the chance to replace Amed Rosario.

EDIT: They just said on the broadcast that Freeman was preparing to play right field in Columbus tonight if they hadn't called him up, so nothing is settled.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Free Bo Naylor!

It's almost incredible how bad Cam Gallagher is at every aspect of baseball... not simply the fact he's now 2-for-35 on the season, but he can't throw out baserunners and tonight he's committed catcher's interference and set up poorly on a play at the plate. Mike Zunino has 4 hits in his last 46 at-bats.

Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Naylor has played 152 games between AA/AAA and hit 28 home runs with 111 walks. It's time to get him in Cleveland to work with the future of the pitching staff.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The Guards overcame the Angels, the worst umpiring I've seen in years and their own boneheaded mistakes tonight to win 8-6. Josh Naylor is starting to look comfortable at the plate with late inning bombs in consecutive games. However, Cam Gallagher – behind the plate this weekend because Mike Zunino is dealing with a sore neck – took another 0-fer. Meanwhile, Josh's little brother Bo has two home runs for Columbus tonight.

George Valera rejoined Columbus this weekend, returning from off-season hamate surgery. If he stays healthy, he'll have 80-90 games played at AAA (including last season) by the All-Star break and is a potential right field candidate in the second half.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

The Guards overcame the Angels, the worst umpiring I've seen in years and their own boneheaded mistakes tonight to win 8-6. Josh Naylor is starting to look comfortable at the plate with late inning bombs in consecutive games. However, Cam Gallagher – behind the plate this weekend because Mike Zunino is dealing with a sore neck – took another 0-fer. Meanwhile, Josh's little brother Bo has two home runs for Columbus tonight.

George Valera rejoined Columbus this weekend, returning from off-season hamate surgery. If he stays healthy, he'll have 80-90 games played at AAA (including last season) by the All-Star break and is a potential right field candidate in the second half.

Is Clase hurt? Velo is way down and he is not anywhere near as effective as previously. Any realistic chance Stephan could take over?

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I haven't heard the possibility of an injury even mentioned. If "way down" is still averaging 98+ mph and regularly hitting 100, I think it's far more likely a mechanical issue than an injury, which they recently addressed. Clase is 25 and signed for up to five more years, so Cleveland isn't going to keep sending him out there for some possible short-term gain if they think he could be injured.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

I haven't heard the possibility of an injury even mentioned. If "way down" is still averaging 98+ mph and regularly hitting 100, I think it's far more likely a mechanical issue than an injury, which they recently addressed. Clase is 25 and signed for up to five more years, so Cleveland isn't going to keep sending him out there for some possible short-term gain if they think he could be injured.

Thanks. Three straight hits to start the ninth today. Sometimes players are such competitors that they keep the injury from the team.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Neto's double was a misplay by Brennan and Moniak's single was a blooper... so he gave up a hard grounder up the middle to Ohtani. I don't know why some fans think a small sample size drop in velocity always has to be a sign that a pitcher's arm is about to fly off. Sorry to disappoint you, but the issue is most likely what everyone has said the issue is.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

Neto's double was a misplay by Brennan and Moniak's single was a blooper... so he gave up a hard grounder up the middle to Ohtani. I don't know why some fans think a small sample size drop in velocity always has to be a sign that a pitcher's arm is about to fly off. Sorry to disappoint you, but the issue is most likely what everyone has said the issue is.

Understood thx

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I'll get to bitching about the team sometime later, but I'm listening to the Clippers game and Triston McKenzie just put up a sharp 3-inning outing in his first rehab start – 2 hits and a walk that didn't result in any runs and he struck out 4. Aaron Civale looked really good in his first rehab start on Thursday (the exact same numbers Dr Sticks just put up except he didn't walk anyone). Interestingly, Joey Cantillo is now making his AAA debut in a piggyback role with McKenzie and they're saying he's hitting 96-97 MPH. I assume that's a juiced clock, but if he really does throw that hard now, I have higher hopes for him than previous expectations.

Peyton Battenfield went on the IL this weekend with a sore shoulder, but he was never in the long-term rotation plans anyway... he was getting replaced as soon as either McKenzie or Civale comes off the IL. Even with another starter down, if everyone remains healthy, there will be a difficult demotion at the start of June with Bieber, Allen, Bibee, McKenzie, Civale and Quantrill all available. Personally, I'd return Quantrill to the pen, where he's had success in the past... I wouldn't use him in long relief as Xzavion Curry already seems more than capable for that role. I'd give him the opportunity to be a primary setup man in place of James Karinchak.

 

[LogansDad]

I am so excited for McKenzie to come back. He's one of the more exciting young pitchers in the game and a lot of fun to watch.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Three moves that need to be made immediately:

(1) Release Cam Gallagher. Granted he's coming off a great week where he briefly doubled his batting average in the span of two days to a robust .106. Bo Naylor is already with the team as the 27th man for Sunday's doubleheader. Bo needs to know Cleveland. He's obviously their future catcher and after Cleveland's catchers went 0-for-17-days to kick off the month of May, that future looks like now. They keep saying Naylor needs to work on throwing runners out while fielding a team with two catchers who can't throw runners out. He should be in Cleveland working with Sandy Alomar every day. Victor Martinez was never a great catcher, but I can't think of one in my 35+ years of watching Cleveland baseball who's been as bad behind the plate as Mike Zunino. When he's not allowing runners to steal at will, he's letting breaking balls reach the backstop or interfering with the batter. David Fry is already a seldom used bench player who catches among other things, so there's no need to have Gallagher on the 26-man or 40-man roster.

(2) Send Karinchak down to Columbus until he can find some command. It's been a struggle since opening day and he's giving away multi-run homers like free candy because he's falling behind batters in situations where everyone knows he can't afford to walk them, so he's going to groove a fastball. There's really no one in AAA who's on the 40-man roster and an effective reliever, but former Top 100 prospect Touki Toussaint has looked really good as he's settled into the bullpen, striking out more batters than he's allowed to reach base (1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.8 K/9). Designating Gallagher for assignment opens up the roster spot Toussaint needs. When Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale return to the rotation in a couple of weeks, there will be multiple starters who also become candidates for the bullpen.

(3) For the love of God, stop putting Amed Rosario in the #2 hole every night! In fact, stop putting him in the lineup, period. Tyler Freeman should be playing at least half of the games in his place. They've backed themselves into a corner on this one by not trading Rosario in the off-season when he was worth something. Now they're sinking the lineup while futilely praying he gets back to being the player he has been... which wasn't anything great in the first place. It's really impressive how much Freeman has improved his entire offensive game since last year... and especially so at the MLB level when he's only getting a chance to play a couple of times per week.

I have other ideas, but at least Gabriel Arias and Will Brennan have looked better over the past week, and until George Valera establishes himself as healthy and productive, there just aren't any obvious answers in the outfield outside of a trade (which rarely happens this early in the year anyway). However, those are three moves that require no wish-casting and should have been made weeks ago.

Speaking of hand surgery (Valera's was his hamate), I'm at least encouraged to see Jose Ramirez's two home runs today. He's been hitting for less power than he had since 2016 and I was starting to worry the off-season thumb surgery was sapping his strength as hand injuries are sometimes known to do.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Fortunately, I missed the entire Guards game tonight... another great start from Bibee completely wasted. Even while splitting the first two games of the series against the Cards, they've scored in just 2 of 19 innings. Karinchak faced 3 batters and threw 4 strikes total while walking them all. It's inexplicable that he's still pitching in the majors instead of being sent down to figure his shit out.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Zach Plesac is pitching better since his demotion:
MLB: 7.59 ERA
AAA: 7.56 ERA

 

[jon abbey]

Zach Plesac is pitching better since his demotion:
MLB: 7.59 ERA
AAA: 7.56 ERA

View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1665384376933437440?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

It's unfortunate they didn't get what they could for him last fall before the non-tender deadline. At the time, I thought Cody Morris could replace him in Cleveland's rotation – at least on a trial basis before others like Allen, Bibee and Williams reached Cleveland. Now with Morris halfway through his rehab assignment and two of those guys pitching well in Cleveland, it seems this might be a case of Morris replacing Plesac in the AAA rotation.

To throw in a few updates... Quantrill was the odd man out in the rotation, as merited, but instead of sending him to the bullpen immediately, they've come up with a quasi-bogus IL trip shoulder inflammation. It's real enough that they did an MRI, but simultaneously stated that they expect him back when eligible, I think before they even had the results.

Triston McKenzie makes his season debut this afternoon. Allen and Bibee have been their best two starters and I'm glad they (nor I) have to pick between the two. It's been impressive that both have been able to battle and make in-game adjustments when they don't have their A-game working. I haven't had time to follow anything but the games recently, and not always those, so I haven't heard any talk about Bieber, but the way he's been cruising along and then suddenly giving up 3-4 hits in a row, makes me suspicious that he's struggling with something out of the stretch.

James Karinchak is on a really weird streak. He's allowed only 1 hit in his past 9.1 innings (12 appearances)... but that hit was the Pete Alonso grand slam a couple of weeks ago. He's also walked 9 batters in that time – including loading the bases without retiring a batter before he got yanked last weekend – and struck out 15. In short, he's a couple of days away from going a complete month with a .000 BABIP. He's the ultimate "three true outcomes" pitcher.

It's a small sample size, but Clase has looked a lot better over his last 3 appearances and the strikeout rate is rising. Maybe he's found consistency in the mechanical change they made, maybe it's the summer weather... but it looks to me like he's doing a better job of utilizing his slider, which is more of a swing-and-miss pitch than his 100-mph fastball.

They are starting to look smarter than me about demoting Oscar Gonzalez to give Will Brennan and Gabriel Arias more consistent at-bats. It took a couple of weeks for them to seize the opportunity, but since that transaction, Brennan is batting .313/.333/.438 in 23 games (.347/.375/.510 in his last 16). Arias has gone .246/.352/.459 (.293/.408/.585). He's been the shocker to me... with the increased playing time, he's completely turned around both his walk and strikeout rates. Maybe it's SSS, but he's been more selective than he's been at any point in his pro career. Meanwhile, Brennan is supposed to be the more polished one, but I don't see him keeping it up if he's going to remain this aggressive. Oscar's been... sporadic. He's at .240/.272/.406 and should probably also be working on his walk rate above all else.

 

[LogansDad]

Bad news: Triston McKenzie has a sprained UCL and is shut down for "several weeks".

Good news: Gavin Williams will be making his MLB debut tomorrow.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Thanks, I was searching the internet this morning for what they were going to do tomorrow and thought maybe I was missing something that there was no real speculation to be found... and I've been too busy to look this afternoon. I think Williams was in line to start in AAA tonight and they've already used the 40th spot on the roster a couple of times since McKenzie was injured to shuffle guys through the Cleveland bullpen who were only going to eat a couple of innings and then get DFA'd, so the opportunity was there.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Wednesdays are not an evening I can pay much attention to the early innings of a ballgame, but...

It would have been great to see Gavin Williams dominate the lowly A's, but he pitched well enough. Basically, he fell apart for a few at-bats in the 4th inning and gave up a 3-run homer, but he recaptured his composure and held them scoreless for a couple more innings, giving the team the chance to come back and win it. Cleveland isn't exactly fattening their stats against Oakland, but they're managing to hang around long enough to take advantage of the A's inevitable little league plays – that outfield has cost them multiple runs each of the last two games.

Bo Naylor got his first major league hit in a huge spot that set up the tying run and then scored the winning run himself in the bottom of the 8th... fell behind 0-2 and then worked a full count, which forced the pitcher to put one over the plate.

Josh Naylor thinks he's Luis Arraez lately with a .393 batting average over his last 32 games, raising his season average by more than 100 points. I'm happy to admit he's another player Cleveland's front office has emphatically proved me wrong about. I didn't like him as part of the Mike Clevinger deal and felt they may have liked him a bit too much because Bo was a recent top pick... didn't see him as a big home run hitter, and he probably won't be a 30+ homer guy, but he hits the ball hard. The defensive metrics still don't like him, but to my eyes, he's on his way to being a solid first baseman... might just be that he stretches well for a guy who's so thick. He reminds me of a left-handed version of what Ryan Garko was supposed to be. He's also a major part of the clubhouse, credited as sort of the "mother hen" when kids get promoted and I think he's behind most of the team's celebratory routines.

These kids make me feel old. I didn't think it was that long ago that Bartolo Colon was still hanging around as the last MLB player older than me. The Guardians only have 3 guys who were even born when I graduated high school.

By the way, for anyone who thinks it takes 5 years to turn around a minor league system... Logan Allen (2nd round, 2020), Gavin Williams (1st round, 2021) and Tanner Bibee (5th round, 2021).

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The Guardians move into first place. Tomorrow afternoon they might even reach .500.

Cal Quantrill made one rehab start at AA over the weekend and pitched 5 shutout innings. He'll return to the rotation on Friday, giving the Guards 6 starters for this week. They won't continue that way, especially since they want a full bullpen to help with the erratic performances and workload management that come with having 3 rookie starters. My guess is Logan Allen gets a break while citing that he needs some side work to focus on being more aggressive and efficient. He's now made two starts in a row in which he hasn't allowed a run but also had to be relieved before the 5th inning because of his pitch count.

Oscar Gonzalez hit for the cycle in AAA the other day and has 8 hits in his last 10 at-bats. His numbers prior to that were underwhelming but not disastrous. I don't know if he's on the verge of a promotion – they could swap him with Gabriel Arias, although that would give them less positional flexibility – but I do think he'll get another chance the next time a position player goes on the IL, especially since Brayan Rocchio has been slumping this month.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

After getting three medical opinions, the decision on Triston McKenzie is to rest the elbow and start rehabbing it in August, with the goal of rejoining the team in September. If things go badly, it would lead to TJ surgery, but the hope is that he tests the elbow, gets to play some meaningful baseball and heads into a regular off-season routine. If they do need to resort to TJ surgery, the two month delay isn't going to make a huge difference in when he could return anyway.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

After getting three medical opinions, the decision on Triston McKenzie is to rest the elbow and start rehabbing it in August, with the goal of rejoining the team in September. If things go badly, it would lead to TJ surgery, but the hope is that he tests the elbow, gets to play some meaningful baseball and heads into a regular off-season routine. If they do need to resort to TJ surgery, the two month delay isn't going to make a huge difference in when he could return anyway.

He is so much fun to watch. Really hope the rest does the trick.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Enjoy the bullpen (or Columbus) Quantrill.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Cal Quantrill has been sent back to the IL with little pretense that he's there for any reason more than ineffectiveness. They said the shoulder inflammation is still an issue, not because he can't pitch, but because it's affecting his command and he wasn't able to get his full work in between starts. He won't be shut down for any period of time, but he'll get his work in on the side and they won't "rush him back" this time. His next start would have been after the All-Star break anyway, so this way they can have Logan Allen make another 3-4 inning start or two for Columbus and just keep him fresh and on schedule to rejoin Cleveland as they enter the second half.

Amed Rosario is hitting .333/.378/.436 over his last 28 games. His season numbers are still only good for an 87 OPS+ and a -0.3 bWAR. Cleveland won't make any effort to resign him (nor should they) and they'd likely still be just as well off letting Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio (and to my frustration, Gabriel Arias) battle for the shortstop job in the second half. If they don't trade Rosario for whatever they can get in the next few weeks, it will be a completely wasted opportunity.

Andres Gimenez has recovered from a poor first two months and is batting .299/.378/.504 over his last 33 games.

David Fry has been a pleasant discovery this year as a third catcher who can also play anything but the middle of the field and hit a little. He was acquired prior to last season straight up for JC Mejia, who Milwaukee recently promoted again, but has been a disaster in two short stints in their bullpen. I thought Fry was more of a AAAA type prior to his promotion, but he's continued to hit when given the opportunity. He reminds me of a better version of former Tribe farmhand Chris Gimenez or a lesser version of Yan Gomes. Cleveland seems to like having 3 catchers on the roster, but with Cam Gallagher having no future in the organization, I think I'd rather see him shipped out and Oscar Gonzalez given another opportunity in right field. I don't know that he's made any fundamental changes to what he's doing at the plate, but his bat has gotten hot in AAA. Will Brennan has hit .304 in 50 games since Gonzalez was demoted, but he doesn't have a whole lot of power and he rarely walks – he also has a .433 OPS against lefties – so it would make sense to try that platoon again in a lineup whose biggest need is right-handed pop.

Cleveland believed in Brennan enough to trade away two other left-handed corner outfielders this past off-season who are both now having some success with their new teams – Nolan Jones and Will Benson.

Jones, once Cleveland's top prospect, was usually a guy dreamed about more for potential than discussed for actual on-field results, but his name appears twice now on the list of 10 longest home runs hit in 2023. He was also considered a liability wherever he played in the field and the signing of Josh Bell cut off his best opportunity to collect some at-bats in Cleveland. No doubt Jones has been a success so far in Colorado, although I think his lack of contact is still a potential problem. He was swapped for another prospect, a couple of years further out, who brings better defensive flexibility, even if the system seems crowded with infield prospects. Juan Brito was promoted to AA last month and continues to hit. I'm not saying he's the next Carlos Baerga, but that's the comparison I get as far as build, switch-hitting, level of pop and ability to put the ball in play... although that was something Baerga developed in time, whereas Brito shows more patience and has maintained a 1:1 bb/so ratio. He actually models his swing after Robinson Cano. Brito generally ranks just outside Cleveland's top 10 prospects.

The Guardians traded former 1st round pick Will Benson to Cincinnati. He had struggled badly early in his career – all raw tools with no results – to the point that he was really an unheralded prospect by the time he forced his way to Cleveland over the past couple of years. In Cleveland, his plate discipline vanished again, and even with the Reds back in April, he started out 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts before getting demoted. He was given another chance in mid-May and has run with it, now hitting .288/.383/.459 on the season. I don't think the batting average will stand up – across all pro levels, he has a career average of .221, and even in his month at AAA this season, he batted .204. However, if he can hit .230 with power and his ability to draw walks and steal bases, he can still be a valuable major leaguer. He seems like an awesome, community-minded kid, so I hope the success continues. Cleveland acquired Justin Boyd – the Reds' supplemental 2nd round pick in last year's draft – in exchange. The outfielder is off to a terrible 7-for-50 start in Hi-A. There's much positive spin to put on this, except for Boyd's strong walk rate, but he also has an alarmingly bad strikeout rate (33% in his pro career) for a guy whose game is more speed driven.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Guards are over .500 for the first time since April 21st when they were 10-9. If they beat the Royals by 5 runs on Sunday and the Twins lose, they'll go into the break with their first division lead of more than a ½ game this year and a positive run differential for the first time since April 10th.

It's great to see Gavin Williams and Bo Naylor leading the team to major league wins (and Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen). I'd still be okay with trading Shane Bieber for the right return (because this team isn't going to win in October regardless), but I don't see it happening until this winter. When that does happen, the "rebuild" will really be over... they'll have a roster full of guys with multiple years of team control. The system will still churn out some players, but the focus in 2024 and beyond will be on finding roster spots to upgrade and winning.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Cleveland entered the break looking poised to leave Minnesota in the rearview mirror, but less than a week later it appears there's little hope to move their chips in and make a second-half playoff run. Even the Guardians pitching factory can't keep up with this demand. This is what's become of the expected rotation entering the season:

Shane Bieber: Decent but lackluster season, now on the IL with forearm irritation he's been experiencing for a few weeks. He had an MRI on the arm earlier this weekend, but consults with a specialist today, so we should know tomorrow.
Triston McKenzie: Made 2 starts between a back/shoulder muscle strain and an elbow strain. Best case scenario: He returns healthy in September and has a normal off-season. Worst case scenario: He needs Tommy John surgery and we see him 2025.
Cal Quantrill: Has pitched badly and made two trips to the IL with shoulder inflammation (although the current trip was more about his inflamed ERA). He'll likely be back by next weekend just because they'll need a warm body.
Aaron Civale: Has been tremendous, but has also made just 10 starts this year due to an oblique injury. He's been unable to make more than 21 starts in any major league season because of a plethora of minor/unrelated injuries.
Zach Plesac: It took him only one month to pitch his way back to AAA and then get DFA'd a month later. He's still in AAA, where his numbers are only slightly better (7.13 ERA) than they were in Cleveland (7.59).

That leaves one veteran starter in the rotation, flanked by Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen (who was demoted a couple of weeks ago for inefficiency and workload management but will return on Tuesday). They'll weather Bieber's injury in the short term with a bullpen game on Monday, but then will need to figure out where the missing innings are going to come from. The run of arm problems only emphasizes that they need to continue the conservative approach with the three rookies in the rotation and protect the future – they can't get through this by riding the arms of Williams, Bibee and Allen.

There's nothing left in reserve at AAA right now with Hunter Gaddis putting up a Plesac-like performance (5.17 ERA in MLB, 7.12 ERA in AAA). Joey Cantillo could possibly get the call at some point, but it seems unlikely considering his significant control issues (5.5 bb/9 across AA & AAA this year). Quantrill will probably return to the rotation by default, although they could tap into the former starters who are settling into the bullpen – Xzavion Curry has been one of the few bright spots this year, but is becoming more and more integral to the bullpen's success and preferably wouldn't be yanked around. Cody Morris, I think, is a viable major league starter, but also missed much of the season to injury and has struggled to get it going so far in just 14 innings total.

The Guards really aren't in a position to do much at the deadline. Bieber was the pivotal piece if they decided to sell, but that's obviously off the table now – even if it's a minor injury, it casts too much doubt to get appropriate value. The only thing left to do is get whatever they can for Amed Rosario. On that front, it looks like the coaching staff has finally started paying attention to actual performance instead of dreaming about physical potential, so Tyler Freeman is getting the playing time he's earned while Gabriel Arias is stapled to the bench. Honestly, as long as Rosario is still on the roster, I'm not sure what Arias is still doing in Cleveland – getting 15 at-bats in the past month certainly can't be what's best for a guy who desperately needs to improve his contact rate. With guys like Brayan Rocchio and Juan Brito moving up the pecking order, it might be time to see what they can still get for Arias.

Josh Bell is almost a lock to return on his player's option for 2024 at $16.5M. I don't understand how he only has 9 home runs. When he barrels one up, it leaves the park with ease, but he just can't put more than a couple of good games together. Cleveland's offense is perfectly encapsulated by the two free agent bats they added resulting in a first half DFA (Zunino) and a DH with a 96 OPS+.

EDIT: Funny that I managed to forget him despite having seen one of his rehab starts just last weekend, but Payton Battenfield will be back to eat some innings in the 2nd half. Not that he's someone to get excited about, but he'll get an opportunity by default and should be ahead of Gaddis now.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

Cleveland entered the break looking poised to leave Minnesota in the rearview mirror, but less than a week later it appears there's little hope to move their chips in and make a second-half playoff run. Even the Guardians pitching factory can't keep up with this demand. This is what's become of the expected rotation entering the season:

Shane Bieber: Decent but lackluster season, now on the IL with forearm irritation he's been experiencing for a few weeks. He had an MRI on the arm earlier this weekend, but consults with a specialist today, so we should know tomorrow.
Triston McKenzie: Made 2 starts between a back/shoulder muscle strain and an elbow strain. Best case scenario: He returns healthy in September and has a normal off-season. Worst case scenario: He needs Tommy John surgery and we see him 2025.
Cal Quantrill: Has pitched badly and made two trips to the IL with shoulder inflammation (although the current trip was more about his inflamed ERA). He'll likely be back by next weekend just because they'll need a warm body.
Aaron Civale: Has been tremendous, but has also made just 10 starts this year due to an oblique injury. He's been unable to make more than 21 starts in any major league season because of a plethora of minor/unrelated injuries.
Zach Plesac: It took him only one month to pitch his way back to AAA and then get DFA'd a month later. He's still in AAA, where his numbers are only slightly better (7.13 ERA) than they were in Cleveland (7.59).

That leaves one veteran starter in the rotation, flanked by Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen (who was demoted a couple of weeks ago for inefficiency and workload management but will return on Tuesday). They'll weather Bieber's injury in the short term with a bullpen game on Monday, but then will need to figure out where the missing innings are going to come from. The run of arm problems only emphasizes that they need to continue the conservative approach with the three rookies in the rotation and protect the future – they can't get through this by riding the arms of Williams, Bibee and Allen.

There's nothing left in reserve at AAA right now with Hunter Gaddis putting up a Plesac-like performance (5.17 ERA in MLB, 7.12 ERA in AAA). Joey Cantillo could possibly get the call at some point, but it seems unlikely considering his significant control issues (5.5 bb/9 across AA & AAA this year). Quantrill will probably return to the rotation by default, although they could tap into the former starters who are settling into the bullpen – Xzavion Curry has been one of the few bright spots this year, but is becoming more and more integral to the bullpen's success and preferably wouldn't be yanked around. Cody Morris, I think, is a viable major league starter, but also missed much of the season to injury and has struggled to get it going so far in just 14 innings total.

The Guards really aren't in a position to do much at the deadline. Bieber was the pivotal piece if they decided to sell, but that's obviously off the table now – even if it's a minor injury, it casts too much doubt to get appropriate value. The only thing left to do is get whatever they can for Amed Rosario. On that front, it looks like the coaching staff has finally started paying attention to actual performance instead of dreaming about physical potential, so Tyler Freeman is getting the playing time he's earned while Gabriel Arias is stapled to the bench. Honestly, as long as Rosario is still on the roster, I'm not sure what Arias is still doing in Cleveland – getting 15 at-bats in the past month certainly can't be what's best for a guy who desperately needs to improve his contact rate. With guys like Brayan Rocchio and Juan Brito moving up the pecking order, it might be time to see what they can still get for Arias.

Josh Bell is almost a lock to return on his player's option for 2024 at $16.5M. I don't understand how he only has 9 home runs. When he barrels one up, it leaves the park with ease, but he just can't put more than a couple of good games together. Cleveland's offense is perfectly encapsulated by the two free agent bats they added resulting in a first half DFA (Zunino) and a DH with a 96 OPS+.

EDIT: Funny that I managed to forget him despite having seen one of his rehab starts just last weekend, but Payton Battenfield will be back to eat some innings in the 2nd half. Not that he's someone to get excited about, but he'll get an opportunity by default and should be ahead of Gaddis now.

Sam: thoughts about the Rosario trade, and who you think will take over at short?

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

It looks like the trade deadline will come and go with a whimper in Cleveland. They had one expiring contract with Amed Rosario and the return is another 2-month rental who hasn't even been intriguing since pre-pandemic days. With 60% of the rotation on the IL – two of whom won't return until at least some time in September – and three current starters who had never pitched in the majors until three months ago, at least Noah Syndergaard fits a general need on the roster. Of course, he's currently on a rehab assignment for a blister himself, but if they stick with the schedule he was on prior to the trade, he'll make his organizational debut with a start for Columbus tomorrow night with about a 70-pitch limit, which presumably puts him in Cleveland's rotation in the first week of August.

Getting rid of Rosario is a no-brainer. He's never gotten on a hot streak at the plate this year that's lasted more than a couple of weeks and his defensive improvements last year have proven to be a mirage... and even at his best last year, he was still bad. Now he's the worst starting shortstop in the game. I wanted Rosario and Zach Plesac both moved for whatever they could get in the off-season and they both tanked their value since then.

The positives of this deal are the new opportunities given to the kids who are already here. Tyler Freeman outplayed Rosario in every facet of the game despite not getting regular playing time. Until recently, Cleveland had preferred wishing on a star by giving more playing time to the more physically gifted Gabriel Arias, but eventually they tired of him swinging at pitches a foot off the plate and then striking out looking at middle-middle fastballs. When Freeman was playing every day in AAA a couple of months ago, he was showing an improved walk rate – along with his penchant for getting hit often enough to noticeably raise his OBP – so I'll be looking to see if that translates to the majors now when he knows he won't be back on the bench tomorrow.

I suspect Andres Gimenez is probably at second base permanently, but with Freeman in the lineup, the best defensive alignment would probably be swapping the two. Freeman is still a huge improvement over Rosario though, who only played shortstop because he looked even worse any place else they tried him. If Freeman doesn't nail down a job, expect Brayan Rocchio to return in September and have a leg up next spring. He's a stronger defensive player.

Cleveland replaces Rosario on the roster by finally recalling Oscar Gonzalez. Sponge Bob hit .275/.316/.473 (numbers that have been trending up over the past month or so) in Columbus after getting demoted earlier this year. Again, it made little sense that he was still stuck in Columbus after the team had soured on Arias and stapled him to the bench. Oscar may not be the answer, but George Valera has just recently gotten healthy and isn't ready for his debut. Gonzalez can platoon in right with Will Brennan, who did improve after getting more of Gonzalez's at-bats in Cleveland, but has cooled off again and is hopeless against lefties (.382 OPS in 52 AB). Ideally, I'd like to see a Brennan and Myles Straw platoon in center with Gonzalez, Valera or a cost-controlled acquisition in right.

Since the Guardians have only had four starters on the roster since Shane Bieber went on the IL, Syndergaard won't be replacing anyone's role. When he's ready to be activated, they'll demote either Daniel Norris or Michael Kelly, who are only with the team to cover for the bullpen games. I would have preferred to see Rosario moved for an A-ball lottery ticket and Xzavion Curry continue to be stretched out, but he likely has a long-term future in the bullpen anyway.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Welcome to the Cleveland Gaardians, where a team within a ½ game of first place fields a rotation featuring a broken down former ace with a 7.16 ERA coming straight off the IL and three rookies with a combined experience of just over 200 career MLB innings. Let's hope our veteran with the 6.45 ERA returns ASAP, because otherwise we have no idea who will be starting between now and mid-September when maybe the other two starters find out they can pitch again and don't need Tommy John surgery.

Syndergaard is about to make his Cleveland debut... presumably on a ~75 pitch limit.

 

[simplicio]

Can I interest you in a reunion with a gently used Kluber?

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I am a little surprised they didn't pick up a "what can we get in exchange for our 37th best prospect" type starter today just to help with the workload. I'd prefer Carlos Carrasco if they were going the nostalgia route, though. He hasn't really pitched any better than Kluber, but I feel like there's a slightly better chance he has something left in the tank if both are healthy. I also think he might just be about the best human being in the game and it's always annoyed me that they shipped him out two years after he accepted what was seen as well below market value on his last contract in the hopes of spending the rest of his career in Cleveland. Kluber has always seemed like a really good guy off the field and in the clubhouse as well, but I'm not sure there had been a player more involved in the Cleveland community and charities than Carrasco since maybe Andre Thornton.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Kahlil Watson, Cleveland's return in the Josh Bell trade, made a good first impression at Hi-A Lake County, going 2-for-4 with a home run (his teammates combined for 1 hit in the game). Cleveland likes to collect shortstops and then get them experience all around the infield, but it seems a little odd Watson made his debut at second base with fringy shortstop prospect Milan Tolentino DH-ing, while former 2nd round bust Yordys Valdes played short.

Kyle Manzardo has been out the past few weeks with a sore non-throwing shoulder, so his debut at AAA Columbus will wait a bit longer.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The Guardians have reached the point where it's difficult just to fill out a 40-man roster. After Josh Bell was traded for a shortstop in A-ball, they recalled Brayan Rocchio. Injuries to guys like George Valera and the outdated Rule 5 draft stipulations putting kids like Jhonkensy Noel and Jose Tena on the 40-man long before they should be meant they'd reached the bottom of the barrel. Rocchio has earned a promotion with a good AAA season, but he was chiefly recalled because he was the only major league ready player available. They really didn't need him with Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman just getting their first opportunities for a lot of playing time. This is also where Cleveland's fixation on middle infield prospects is starting to become an issue at the major league level.

Well, apparently Rocchio was needed because today they placed Freeman on the IL with a strained shoulder and Rocchio is now starting at shortstop. The aforementioned Tena is up for the first time after he was just promoted to AAA yesterday (combined with last year, he has 6 games of AAA experience). His minor league line of .261/.354/.373 doesn't jump off the page, but he got off to a disastrous and dinged up start to the season and was batting a sub-.200 just a couple of months ago. He's always been an under-the-radar favorite of mine. Although a high K-rate (26% the past 2 seasons) has soured me on him a bit, he's showing a newfound patience at the plate this year (11.5%).

Josh Naylor also went on the IL with an oblique strain – anywhere from 3-6 weeks – so a punchless lineup just lost its breakout star and the only reason Jose Ramirez sees hittable pitches. Today they purchased Kole Calhoun, who has split the year between AAA teams for the Yankees and Dodgers. Fortunately, Oscar Gonzalez is 7-for-15 since being recalled and has a hustle triple on a lackadaisical throw tonight. It sounds like the coaching staff has told the players it's time to be more aggressive, particularly Myles Straw. It's kind of ridiculous how little Straw runs considering his speed is the only tool he brings to the plate. Tonight he's responded with an infield single, stolen base, advanced on a throwing error and scored on a wild pitch. Despite the larger bases and new rule changes, plus little change in personnel, Cleveland's stolen bases have only increased 6% this year.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

It was fun while it lasted. Actually, aside from the 3 rookies making great debuts in the rotation and Josh Naylor's breakout season, there's been nothing fun about it. Anyway, after their series with Detroit, 21 of Cleveland's next 25 games are against potential playoff teams, so the rest of the season is going to be even uglier.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Pitching for the first time since July 9th due to elbow inflammation, Shane Bieber threw 3.2 hitless innings for AA Akron tonight. He did allow one earned run (on a hit against the guy who relieved him)... he also hit two batters and walked one, but threw 32 of his 50 pitches for strikes. I haven't heard anything about his velocity yet. Triston McKenzie – also out with an elbow injury – will take the mound at Akron tomorrow night. He hasn't pitched since June 10th and only lasted two starts this season, so he'll start out on a shorter leash than Bieber – I'm not sure if that's more than one inning, but likely no more than two.

The hope is that they both avoid Tommy John surgery and can still build up to where they have a somewhat normal, or at least healthy, off-season.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Gabriel Arias
Career vs. LHP: 130 AB, .100/.176/.177
Career w/2 strikes: 208 AB, .111/.198/.168

Why they continue trying to make this guy a full-time starter is beyond me.