2023 Bullpen

[BaseballJones]

The problem with the Red Sox' bullpen isn't really the bullpen. As many have said here, it's that they have almost no starters who go deep into games.

Crawford: 17 starts, 3 games with 6.0 ip, 0 games with >6.0 ip
Bello: 22 starts, 6 games with 6.0 ip, 8 games with >6.0 ip
Paxton: 18 starts, 5 games with 6.0 ip, 2 games with >6.0 ip
Sale: 15 starts, 2 games with 6.0 ip, 2 games with >6.0 ip
Houck: 15 starts, 3 games with 6.0 ip, 1 game with >6.0 ip
Whitlock: 10 starts, 0 games with 6.0 ip, 4 games with >6.0 ip
Pivetta: 11 starts, 2 games with 6.0 ip, 0 games with >6.0 ip

So out of these 7 starters: 108 starts, 21 starts with 6.0 ip (19.4%), and 17 starts with >6.0 ip (15.7%).

So that means that in 38 of 108 starts (35.2%), they go 6 or more innings. And that means that for nearly 65% of their starts among these guys (and this doesn't even take into consideration the guys who are "openers") they're not even getting through 6 innings. That puts a TON of work on the bullpen. And they burn out over time. There's just no way the bullpen can pitch all season long at max effectiveness working that many innings. The starters HAVE to go longer. And if these guys can't do it, they need better starters.

Of course, some of this is an organizational philosophy regarding not wanting starters to pitch to lineups a third time. We know the numbers on that - so there's merit to that philosophy. But it does come with a great cost - burning out the bullpen over the 162 game grind.

 

[JM3]

Zack Kelly coming back soon. Probably too late to help the Sox this year, though.

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1696526818780831970

 

[zenax]

There are
11 starters in the AL averaging 4.4 to 5.0 IP/GS
3 averaging 5.2 (league average)
12 averaging 5.3 to 5.4
25 averaging 5.5 to 5.9
9 averaging 6.0 to 6.5

14 starters in the NL averaging 4.5 to 5.1 IP/GS
8 averaging 5.2 (league average)
3 averaging 5.3 to 5.4
31 averaging 5.5 to 5.9
7 averaging 6.1 to 6.6

from bb-ref === in the couple of instnaces where the AL and NL ranges don't coincide (e.g. 6.0 to 6.5 vs. 6.1 to 6.6), that is because one league did not have anyone meeting the criteria.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1696602611552546916?s=20


Bear Claw optioned.

Baseball is hard.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1699080721355161863?s=20


Martin's dominance is nearing Koji levels, honestly. Just a crazy good run for him.

 

[BaseballJones]

More on Martin's #s since May 1:

0.94 era
0.94 whip
8.9 k/9
75% strikes
1.15 GB rate

In those 42 games over this stretch, he's allowed:

2 runs - 1 time
1 run - 2 times
0 runs - 39 times

 

[AB in DC]

And he's 37 years old. That's insane.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

And he's 37 years old. That's insane.

Since the comparison has already been made, 2013 Koji was 38 years old.

Aging like fine wine.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Martin line is absurd. Wow.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1700539869464875434

View: https://twitter.com/BeyondtheMnstr/status/1700211299810968040

 

[JM3]

The Martin line is absurd. Wow.

Spoiler

Ok? We can see what the results are at the end of the season & if Martin had a better season than Jansen, we can say it was a lucky guess & if Jansen's stats are better, we can say I'm dumb & wrong

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/5-13-vs-the-cards.39472/page-9#post-5553904

 

[Fishy1]

Weiss is interesting. Always been a big strikeout guy. When he initially came up thru the minors he had great control, but that control has largely dissipated. Kind of the opposite of what happens with most successful guys.

 

[JM3]

Garrett Whitlock & Nick Robertson in, James Paxton & Joe Jacques out.

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1700893800963449113

 

[simplicio]

Back to Bernardino as the only lefty, yikes.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Weiss is interesting. Always been a big strikeout guy. When he initially came up thru the minors he had great control, but that control has largely dissipated. Kind of the opposite of what happens with most successful guys.

I think it's somewhat symbolic. The Sox discard Brasier who LAD picks up and fixes.

LAA discard Weiss who the Sox pick up, run out for 4 scoreless innings in WOR, then promote for the worst showing he's had in the majors this year. Granted, he's an up-and-down arm, but the Sox have been particularly inept about getting good performances out of those types of guys.

The Sox have 11 pitchers who have appeared in 10 games or less. Pablo Reyes is one of this group with a 4.50 ERA. Two pitchers in this group have a better ERA than Reyes. Ryan Sherriff who was DFA'd and Zach Kelley who was injured. The rest all have a worse ERA.

 

[Fishy1]

I think it's somewhat symbolic. The Sox discard Brasier who LAD picks up and fixes.

LAA discard Weiss who the Sox pick up, run out for 4 scoreless innings in WOR, then promote for the worst showing he's had in the majors this year. Granted, he's an up-and-down arm, but the Sox have been particularly inept about getting good performances out of those types of guys.

The Sox have 11 pitchers who have appeared in 10 games or less. Pablo Reyes is one of this group with a 4.50 ERA. Two pitchers in this group have a better ERA than Reyes. Ryan Sherriff who was DFA'd and Zach Kelley who was injured. The rest all have a worse ERA.

Sure, but like, that's a cutoff that's bound to make anyone look bad, right? If they'd been better they'd have stuck around. There's a reason why they're not pitching more.

Bernardino is a big exception to the loose trash conversion. Llovera might be yet, but has been mediocre.

 

[simplicio]

Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino and Kelly (so far) have all been successful reclamation projects. I think cycling through all these guys looking for more of those types is exactly what you want to be doing in seasons when you're not fully going for it.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Sure, but like, that's a cutoff that's bound to make anyone look bad, right?

Not really. Take the Rays. Beset by injuries they had 21 guys appear for 10 games or less. 11 of them pitched as good or better than Pablo Reyes.

Or the relatively pitching healthy Blue Jays. 7 guys. 4 of them pitched better than Pablo Reyes.

Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino and Kelly (so far) have all been successful reclamation projects. I think cycling through all these guys looking for more of those types is exactly what you want to be doing in seasons when you're not fully going for it.

This is a bit apples-to-oranges. Reclaiming an arm is great. Doing it at the ML level is gutsy. Failing to do it (Brasier) when you are actually trying to win is neither.

(And it's not like Whitlock or Schreiber have been the best versions of their pitching selves lately.)

 

[YTF]

Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino and Kelly (so far) have all been successful reclamation projects. I think cycling through all these guys looking for more of those types is exactly what you want to be doing in seasons when you're not fully going for it.

I have to be honest, I think the book may still be out on Whitlock until he settles into a role and once again shows the flashes of brilliance that got everyone's attention.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino and Kelly (so far) have all been successful reclamation projects. I think cycling through all these guys looking for more of those types is exactly what you want to be doing in seasons when you're not fully going for it.

Sure, but they're not good at finding those guys or at coaching them up (and likely bad at both). It's a real problem given that Bloom's MO is, in part, using those arms to build a cheap flexible bullpen; you need to hit on waiver wire claims and DFAs and random Quad-A guys to make that strategy work, and so far that hasn't been the case.

Also, it's a stretch to me to call Whitlock (a Rule 5 guy) and Kelly successful reclamation projects; the former wasn't a reclamation, and the latter is hurt. Schreiber and Bernardino are Bloom's only notable bullpen trash-to-treasure additions to date despite several spins of the wheel. That's a terrible success rate.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Sure, but they're not good at finding those guys or at coaching them up (and likely bad at both). It's a real problem given that Bloom's MO is, in part, using those arms to build a cheap flexible bullpen; you need to hit on waiver wire claims and DFAs and random Quad-A guys to make that strategy work, and so far that hasn't been the case.

Also, it's a stretch to me to call Whitlock (a Rule 5 guy) and Kelly successful reclamation projects; the former wasn't a reclamation, and the latter is hurt. Schreiber and Bernardino are Bloom's only notable bullpen trash-to-treasure additions to date despite several spins of the wheel. That's a terrible success rate.

What exactly is considered a good success rate for "bullpen trash to treasure" reclamations? Honest question, because I suspect that even the best success rates are still pretty damn low. It's an uphill battle for every single case, and probably the vast majority of them can't be fixed no matter what they do. Two in two years seems like a reasonable rate of success for bullpen arms.

While I agree that Whitlock isn't a reclamation, he was arguably just as big of a risk/long shot as the true reclamations. He was coming off a serious injury and by virtue of being available in the Rule 5, he hadn't yet shown himself to be major league ready (or close). The rate of success for Rule 5 draftees isn't all that high. For each one that sticks with his new team for a full season, there are probably 10 that get sent back before spring training ends, let alone the ones that manage to see any regular season action at all. And even of the ones that stick, there are probably more Adam Sterns than Johan Santanas.

 

[JM3]

Chris Martin's last 17 games...

16 IP
0 runs
14 hits
4 walks
13 strikeouts
0.00 ERA

Chris Martin's last 34 games...

30.2 IP
1 run
25 hits
6 walks
29 strikeouts
0.29 ERA

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wonder what an extension might cost?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I wonder what an extension might cost?

An extension for a 37 year old already signed for next year? Am I missing a joke?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

An extension for a 37 year old already signed for next year? Am I missing a joke?

Then when he has another good year next year how much more will he cost?

It's not like we are rolling in quality RPs

 

[simplicio]

He's a reliever, if he's this good next year and again the year after that he's a goddamn unicorn.

 

[JM3]

I have been a giant Martin stan since the day we signed him & have said several times I expect him to have a better season than Jansen this year... but he's absolutely going to regress next year. He's outperforming his peripherals by a lot. Some of it is sustainable due to the control, but not all of it.

You would be buying very high on his '25 season if you were to try to lock him up now, even if his velocity doesn't tick down, which is a possibility over that time frame.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He's a reliever, if he's this good next year and again the year after that he's a goddamn unicorn.

He'll also be 39 in 2025. Nothing wrong with going year to year with an older pitcher like Martin. Can't imagine anyone is going to offer to pay him such an outrageous salary that they couldn't just re-sign him next winter if they want to keep him around.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I would wait until mid season at least and get more info on Houck and Whitlock, who could potentially end up replacing the roles of Martin and Jansen (although I could certainly see one of them traded too).

 

[simplicio]

Martin's 1.07 ERA is currently tied for the 20th best single 162-game relief season ever. The wild thing is he's doing it on a .307 BABIP; everyone else on that list is 33-122 points lower with an average of .240.

 

[AB in DC]

What's the minimum IP on that list?

 

[simplicio]

Qualified. There are also 7 entries from 2020 (including one from Martin!) that I ignored as they're clearly SSS.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Red Sox have now gone 3-18 in games in which Mauricio Llovera has appeared. While I understand this is mostly to due being brought into games when the Sox are already losing, that's not always the case. Last night he was brought into the game with a cleaning inning and a 1 run lead and promptly coughed it up.

Maybe....stop pitching him? Especially with a lead?

Just a thought.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

The Red Sox have now gone 3-18 in games in which Mauricio Llovera has appeared. While I understand this is mostly to due being brought into games when the Sox are already losing, that's not always the case. Last night he was brought into the game with a cleaning inning and a 1 run lead and promptly coughed it up.

Maybe....stop pitching him? Especially with a lead?

Just a thought.

The starter only went four innings. That means the ass end of the bullpen is going to have to pitch. Who else did you have in mind for the 6th, given that Cora is averse to using guys two days in a row?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The starter only went four innings. That means the ass end of the bullpen is going to have to pitch. Who else did you have in mind for the 6th, given that Cora is averse to using guys two days in a row?

I might have tried Bernardino for 2 innings, given he did that a lot at the beginning of the season.

I realize that Llovera's appearance has more to do with a dearth of options than anything else. Still, it was extremely annoying to see a game who literally almost never appears in wins go out there to try to protect a one run lead.

 

[AB in DC]

I would have like to see Chris Murphy pitch to more than three batters, but he's been scuffling worse than Llovera.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1705403159055642832

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Hopefully get a season even close to those numbers….
Any insight or comments about Whitlock? I’m assuming his days as a starter are over but his numbers as a reliever this year are just terrible also. Was hoping he and one of Houck/Crawford would become a late inning weapon in ‘24

 

[JM3]

Hopefully get a season even close to those numbers….
Any insight or comments about Whitlock? I’m assuming his days as a starter are over but his numbers as a reliever this year are just terrible also. Was hoping he and one of Houck/Crawford would become a late inning weapon in ‘24

Me? I'm probably the last person left who thinks Whitlock could be a fine starter.

According to this study, the injury starting pitchers get more than other pitchers are shoulder injuries & starters/relievers have the same incidence of elbow injuries.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35040985/#:~:text=Conclusions: Starting pitchers displayed a,arm injury than relief pitchers.

I'm not sure how valid this study is for Major League pitching as MiLB relievers seem to almost always get at least 2 days between appearances & the starters usually get 6 days off at the lower levels.

But anyway, here are a list of Whitlock's injuries:

7/2/23 Elbow
4/25/23 Elbow
3/27/23 Hip
9/20/22 Hip
6/10/22 Hip
9/19/21 Pectoral
5/15/21 COVID-19

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/garrett-whitlock-player-injuries

He also had TJ in '19 (Elbow)

So I'm not sure if there is anything endemic to starting that has been Whitlock's issue the last 2 seasons, or whether it's something more related to pitching generally.

Assuming for a minute that his injury risk is similar in either role, he has actually been far more effective in one particular aspect of starting than he has anything else this season - he has been great the 2nd time through the lineup.

His results have certainly been poor this season both as a starter (5.23 ERA) & as a reliever (5.50 ERA).

But let's break it down a bit more.

On the season in both roles combined, he has a 5.86 ERA in 35.1 IP the 1st time through the order, a 2.22 ERA the 2nd time through the order in 24.1 IP, & an 11.17 ERA in 9.2 IP the 3rd time through.

Which is to say, he seems to be taking some time to adjust to the game, then he has a period of great pitching, & then he gets exhausted & falls off a cliff.

Obviously a big part of a healthy off season will be regaining that early game feel, & perhaps that late game stamina, but the fact that he has been so good the 2nd time through the lineup, & not just in ERA (his wOBA as a starter this season is .309/.224/.504 respectively & his xFIP is 4.11/2.59/6.59).

& on top of that, a large portion of Whitlock's struggles this season seem luck based out defense based. He has a 5.30 ERA but a 3.81 xFIP overall.

So yeah, hopefully unlike this past year he can have a healthy off season & they can make an informed decision about his best role moving forward, but I'm not giving up on him.

He's made the sweeper a much bigger part of his arsenal this season, which should also help him as a starter. The issue is his sinker has been getting crushed & his changeup has been getting hit much harder. Part of that I think is lost velocity (1.3 mph on the sinker & 1.9 mph on the changeup).

If he gets his mph back this off season & stays healthy, I don't think there's any reason to believe he can't be a very effective starter. Of course, I would never ever advise anyone to rely on it, & I'm sure he can do some better work on coming into games more ready, too.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

While Whitlock has been excellent the 2nd time through the order (171/203/303), he’s been terrible the third time around (409/429/818). Last year, he was bad the second time around (299/333/567). Who knows but feels kind of noisy.

Do we know if his restrictive usage patterns (day off for each inning pitched, no back to back) will continue in perpetuity? It makes it really challenging to use him optimally as he’s unavailable so often. If so, I’d probably be open to including him in a trade this year. He’s got 3/$17M left and then options for $8.25 and $10.5 which look a lot less appealing if he’s not a starter or closer.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Me? I'm probably the last person left who thinks Whitlock could be a fine starter.

Could be? He certainly has the stuff, but the stamina is lacking. Stamina in the sense of being able to be effective the third time through the order, and log a full season of starts.

Should be? As in "should be given a starter's role?" I don't know. I think that having the same prep and plan for Whitlock is probably going to get you the same results, and those aren't good. So something would have to change - mechanically, prep-wise, usage wise. And I think that depends on who the org will have working with him this winter, next spring, and next year during the regular season.

 

[JM3]

While Whitlock has been excellent the 2nd time through the order (171/203/303), he’s been terrible the third time around (409/429/818). Last year, he was bad the second time around (299/333/567). Who knows but feels kind of noisy.

Do we know if his restrictive usage patterns (day off for each inning pitched, no back to back) will continue in perpetuity? It makes it really challenging to use him optimally as he’s unavailable so often. If so, I’d probably be open to including him in a trade this year. He’s got 3/$17M left and then options for $8.25 and $10.5 which look a lot less appealing if he’s not a starter or closer.

Feels like they would be selling extremely low at this point - unless they know he's cooked forever healthwise or some particular team is still in love with him.

It makes sense that developing a sweeper would make it much more challenging for hitters in future trips through the lineup, so I'm not sure that part is pure noise.

& it's also not too surprising with all his health issues this season, including before the season even started, that his stamina wouldn't be very good.

 

[JM3]

Could be? He certainly has the stuff, but the stamina is lacking. Stamina in the sense of being able to be effective the third time through the order, and log a full season of starts.

Should be? As in "should be given a starter's role?" I don't know. I think that having the same prep and plan for Whitlock is probably going to get you the same results, and those aren't good. So something would have to change - mechanically, prep-wise, usage wise. And I think that depends on who the org will have working with him this winter, next spring, and next year during the regular season.

The only one of our current starters I would like to write into our '24 rotation in pen would be Bello.

But I think the development of the sweeper which has gone from a pitch he used 1.3% of the time last year to 22.9% this year to great effect (.245 wOBA) gives him a legitimate starting pitcher's mix if he can get his sinker & changeup effectiveness back... which he will need to be an effective pitcher in any role.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Me? I'm probably the last person left who thinks Whitlock could be a fine starter.

For the record, you are not the last person. I think he can be a fine starter as well. For all the reasons you have eloquently stated.

 

[JM3]

For the record, you are not the last person. I think he can be a fine starter as well. For all the reasons you have eloquently stated.

That's good. One never wants to be alone on Whitlock Island.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1705403929666658630

 

[AB in DC]

Seeing Daniel Bard, Josh Taylor, and Hansel Robles on that list just makes me shake my head.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Seeing Daniel Bard, Josh Taylor, and Hansel Robles on that list just makes me shake my head.

I think Robles and Kelly are the most surprising. Bard was a monster in 2010/11.

 

[AB in DC]

I think Robles and Kelly are the most surprising. Bard was a monster in 2010/11.

Yeah, but Kelly had (has?) a decent career. The other three were flashes in a pan who flamed out shortly after putting up those numbers.

 

[Manzivino]

Yeah, but Kelly had (has?) a decent career. The other three were flashes in a pan who flamed out shortly after putting up those numbers.

Daniel Bard put up 3.7 bWAR last year and has put up ERA+ of 143, 93, 260,111 the last 4 years. A fascinating career partially derailed by injuries and battles with anxiety.