2022 Patriots Roster, Schemes, Draft and Team Philosophy

[SMU_Sox]

I have a TLDR at the bottom of the page. This is a two parter - one on scheme and one on prospects in the draft. It doesn't neatly fit here but since you all are talking about where Peppers fits and what Bill will do to utilize him I didn't see it as too out of place. If this needs to be moved I apologize. Also, apologies for the homework post.

Part 1 - thoughts on scheme:

In modern defenses zone schemes have a lot of man elements. Seattle cover-3 is press-zone. Quarters in many colleges and in the NFL now is man-match quarters. In theory if you don’t have speed at corner but you have it at safety you can play a 2 high concept and have at least one safety cover vertically. The issue I see with any scheme with them right now is that they don’t have enough speed on the outside. In theory you could have both safeties in “cloud” or “sky” coverage which allows them to carry vertical routes and/or be the vertical bracket on a receiver. But typically with Belichick even when he starts in a two-high shell one of the two safeties comes down to either be in run support or to play robber. If you have a team who has two fast outside guys it could be an issue for them. If they have 3 it’s a real problem. Corner play is essentially matchups and if you don’t have the horses scheme can only help so much. It’s hard to hold up when both your starting corners are 4.6+ guys.

I think the easiest change would be to go to more cover-3 if he wants to go to more zone but that’s going to put a lot of stress on both Mills and Butler.

Nick Saban, for those who are curious, uses cover 7. You can read about it here. It is a blend of man and zone concepts. I wonder if we see some of that this year. Or at least sprinkled in.

Another way to win with a mediocre group of corners is to have an elite pass rush. If you have neither an elite pass rush or a good group of corners you’re going to have a difficult time stopping the pass. IIRC they had a top 10 unit for pressure rate last year but lost KVN and High and replaced them with… guys on the roster, budget signings, and a trade.

That leads up to part 2: where they might go in the draft + state of roster

State of roster:

The best path forward with the current roster is hope Barmore takes a jump, Uche, Jennings, or Perkins steps up and takes the KVN role and does well, and Butler is good enough in coverage that they are a middle of the road defense. Oh, and hope that one of the flyers they have at ILB can be an average starter. With the secondary they might have to win even more with disguising coverages, mixing it up, and keeping the QB guessing but that’s pretty cliched because all defenses do that to some degree! It’s a lot of questions. Counting on a rookie to help is a dangerous proposition but there are guys who could probably start for them in some capacity or be a key role player year 1 in the first two rounds of the draft not including the obvious top 10 picks.

I think they go defense early and often in the draft this year.

Here are some of the names:
Jordan Davis - DT/NT
Travis Jones - DT/NT
Mathis - run stuffing two gapping DT/DE
Arnold Ebikete - OLB
Josh Paschal - Edge/IDL
Boye Mafe (he could be a really good DPR who turns into a complete player)
Nik Bonnito
Leo Chenal - ILB/OLB,
Darrian Beavers - ILB/OLB,
I’d say Damone Clark but he had spinal fusion surgery which sucks. He’s a fit though and one of my guys so listing him anyway. He WOULD have been in this tier.
Andrew Booth - CB
Dax Hill - DB
Lewis Cine - FS
Pitre - slot safety+
And then some of the slightly smaller ILBs like Devin Lloyd, Chad Muma, Tillery, etc.

I know some NE people like Elam but he can’t tackle at all and avoids it whenever possible. That’s not a trait Bill typically goes for… There are other corners who could interest him like Jalyn Armour-Davis, Kyler Gordon, and Alontae Taylor but they are not quite in this tier and probably all need a year of growth and development before contributing.

Some of you draftniks might be wondering where Jermaine Johnson went since some of us were raving about him in the draft threads. Well… the draft media caught up to us and he’s now considered a top 15 guy. Every. Freaking. Year.

In terms of the biggest 2022 need to upgrade it's corner, LG, and then ILB and OLB, (not necessarily in that order but that's where I have it). You could also argue that they still need a true NT now more than ever because their ILBs are potentially weaker this year and Godchaux really struggled at times. I didn't cover LG above because this year there are 10-12+ guys they could take in rounds 1-4 who could possibly start for them.

I could also see them trying Dax Hill as an outside corner. He has the athleticism, size, length, and man skills to do it. If he doesn't work there then he will be either your FS of the future or your slot safety/corner of the future.

So to me with those first 2 picks I would think they grab at least one person from the front 7 and one secondary piece which by need would be corner. Unfortunately if they don't get Booth and they don't think Dax Hill can play outside they are going to have to hope if they draft a guy who isn't on tape ready to contribute a ton year 1 can over perform.

As for the NTs: Jones and Davis can be above average pass rushers. It's not their strongest trait yet but if I had a nickel for every time Travis Jones got triple teamed I'd have a shit ton of nickels.

I left out some modern edge/IDL prospect 5 techs like Karlaftis and Logan Hall because I think they are too light for Bill and he usually takes those types of players in round 3-4-5 not 1-2.

TL DR: Shut the fuck up, Donny:
Corner for them is an issue but it’s not a good corner class in the draft. There are good pass rushing edges and ILBs as well as NTs (who will be able to get pressure by collapsing the pocket and/or walking back centers). Their best bet for the 2022 defense is that no matter the scheme Butler can perform like an average starter and they can squeeze out a good pass rush to mask some of the corner issues. To do that they likely invest in the front 7 because corner is not the best position in the draft.

If I had to guess right now who they would take in rounds 1/2 it would be Travis Jones (or Jordan Davis if he falls) and then Leo Chenal in round 2.

 

[Average Game James]

SMU - what do you think about Trent McDuffie? Is he just too small for Bill? I'm basing solely on what I've read, but seems like he would fit well in a scheme with more zone, decently fast, and not a horrible tackler for a smaller CB. I'm trying to tell myself that Booth should be there at 21, but I can only really convince myself of about 18 guys that should be locks to go before him...

 

[SMU_Sox]

SMU - what do you think about Trent McDuffie? Is he just too small for Bill? I'm basing solely on what I've read, but seems like he would fit well in a scheme with more zone, decently fast, and not a horrible tackler for a smaller CB. I'm trying to tell myself that Booth should be there at 21, but I can only really convince myself of about 18 guys that should be locks to go before him...

I am not as high on the Scottish Corner as others but corner is hard to evaluate and I only have so much time to spend on one guy. He is someone I would put on a man-match quarters kind of team. Don’t ask him to press. The guy has sub 30 inch arms. That’s bad for an outside corner. Typically teams that play a lot of press-zone or press-man favor guys with 31+ inch arms. He also has surprisingly low ball skills and production for a zone corner. He has the speed and tackling Bill would like and he doesn’t shy away from run support but I think the arm length alone takes him off their board that high up and when you add his iffy scheme fit it isn’t a great match. There are reasons why he would fit here but when you compare him to fits and players of similar caliber that high he’s low on my list of matches. Good player though.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Thanks so much for the insight SMU! My impression (going on admittedly spotty memory) is that BB typically drafts for quality as opposed to need--to be clear, I'm specifically thinking about picks in Rd 1 and 2. I think perhaps a couple of recent drafts cast doubt on that position, but if memory serves I recall previous drafts where BB takes OL, TE, LB, etc. when they weren't clear needs. IOW, if he sees a first round talent drop to him in Rd 2, he doesn't care about his position as much, but rather sees a ton of value in getting good/great players on rookie deals.

Is that an oversimplification--did need always go into the equation? Was it once true when BB saw his tenure at the halfway point, but no longer the case as he's likely getting closer to hanging them up? Something else entirely?

 

[pappymojo]

I appreciate this thread but wonder if it could be renamed to a general draft/scheme/roster philosphy thread with less of an emphasis on defensive scheme.

While zoso's question was directed to SMU, and while I am basically an idiot, I do want to make an attempt at an answer.

I think that there are multiple factors that determine the Patriot's approach to the draft. Certainly, Belichick makes an effort in free agency to address all of the holes in the roster before the draft. Case in point: the Butler signing. It's fairly obvious that he wants to be able to draft the best player available. He wants to position himself so that he can take a player who falls regardless of roster need.

That doesn't mean that roster needs are not a factor, though. It's more that roster needs are one of the factors.

Roster Needs

If the two highest-evaluated players that are available at their pick are a quarterback and a cornerback, and the team evaluates them with comparable values, but doesn't need a quarterback, they are probably draft the cornerback.​

Draft Class / Positional Evaluations

Other factors are the team's evaluation of the draft class for that position.​

​

If the two highest-evaluated players that are available at their pick are a lineback and a cornerback, and both positions represent a position-of-need for the team, but if the team evaluates the cornerback class in the draft as top-heavy and not deep while also evaluating the linebacker class as deep, they are probably going to draft the cornerback with the hope that they can grab a good linebacker later in the draft.​

Salary Value Based on Position

Another factor in the decision will be the position that the player plays and the expected salary for a replacement player at that same position.​

​

There was a recent article in pff on this.​

​

surplus value of each position in the draft​

​

You can't read the whole article without a subscription, but you can read enough to get the point they are making.​

​

​

When a player is drafted, their salary is largely determined by where they are drafted. The 20th pick of the draft is going to make more than the 21st pick, and the 21st pick is going to make more than the 22nd pick, but once the player has moved off of their rookie contract, their salary is largely determined by their value relative to their peers at the same position throughout the league and the contracts that those players are playing under.​

​

If the two highest-evaluated players that are available at their pick are a wide receiver and a safety, and both positions represent a position-of-need for the team, they are probably going to draft the wide receiver, just because it represents the greatest potential for savings over the length of the player's rookie contract.​

Player Evaluation

The next and probably most important aspect is the team's evaluations of the individual players.​

​

If the two highest-evaluated players that are available at their pick are a linebacker and a wide receiver, but the team evaluates the linebacker at the top of their board and the wide receiver at the middle of their board, they are probably going to draft the linebacker.​

So reading SMU's post I think he is saying that (1) the cornerback position has some very good players at the top, but less value in later rounds, (2) is a position of need for the team's current roster, (3) is a foundational position for the team's team-building philosophy, and (4) represents a salary value for a player at the elite tier.

 

[Super Nomario]

Salary Value Based on Position

Another factor in the decision will be the position that the player plays and the expected salary for a replacement player at that same position.​

​

There was a recent article in pff on this.​

​

surplus value of each position in the draft​

​

​

​

When a player is drafted, their salary is largely determined by where they are drafted. The 20th pick of the draft is going to make more than the 21st pick, and the 21st pick is going to make more than the 22nd pick, but once the player has moved off of their rookie contract, their salary is largely determined by their value relative to their peers at the same position throughout the league and the contracts that those players are playing under.​

​

If the two highest-evaluated players that are available at their pick are a wide receiver and a safety, and both positions represent a position-of-need for the team, they are probably going to draft the wide receiver, just because it represents the greatest potential for savings over the length of the player's rookie contract.​

I agree with most of your other points, but I don't see any reason to believe that Belichick / the Patriots subscribe to this. I would argue their draft and FA record suggests they care less about this kind of notion of positional value than most other teams, and maybe more than any other team. Belichick has taken more safeties and tight ends high than defensive ends and wide receivers, for instance.

 

[Dogman]

I appreciate this thread but wonder if it could be renamed to a general draft/scheme/roster philosphy thread with less of an emphasis on defensive scheme.

Done.

 

[pappymojo]

I agree with most of your other points, but I don't see any reason to believe that Belichick / the Patriots subscribe to this. I would argue their draft and FA record suggests they care less about this kind of notion of positional value than most other teams, and maybe more than any other team. Belichick has taken more safeties and tight ends high than defensive ends and wide receivers, for instance.

Going back to 2010 (because I am lazy but also because I think we can assume that Belichick learns and adjusts his philosophy and that this probably provides a more accurate insight into how he would approach this years draft than something from 2006).

I'm also limiting this to the first two rounds as I think that is where most likely see the most positional salary value, but also because I am lazy.

2010

1 Devin McCourty (CB/S - pretty sure he was drafted as a cornerback and then converted to a safety)​

2 Rob Gronkowki (TE)​

2 Jermaine Cunningham (LB)​

2 Brandon Spikes (LB)​

2011

1 Nate Solder (OL)​

2 Ras-I Dowling (CB)​

2 Shane Vereen (RB)​

2012

1 Chandler Jones (Edge)​

1 Dante Hightower (LB)​

2 Tavon Wilson (S)​

2013

2 Jamie Collins (LB)​

2 Aaron Dobson (WR)​

2014

1 Dominique Easley (DL)​

2 Jimmy Garappolo (QB)​

2015

1 Malcolm Brown (DL)​

2 Jordan Richards (S)​

2016

2 Cyrus Jones (CB)​

2017

None​

2018

1 Isaiah Wynn (OL)​

1 Sony Michel (RB)​

2 Duke Dawson (CB)​

2019

1 NKeal Harry (WR)​

2 Joejuan Williams (CB)​

2020

2 Kyle Duggar (S)​

2 Josh Uche (LB)​

2021

1 Mac Jones (QB)​

2 Christian Barmore (DL)​

So, one sure fire hall of famer at tight end, and three safeties in the second round. If you want to include McCourty in that safety group, I think it's abundantly clear that the team evaluated him as a high tier player (rightly so).

So, Kyle Duggar, Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson. How do we explain these draft picks? To me, I would view them less as Belichick going against salary valuations and more as a reflection that the team values this type of safety/special teams player at a higher value than the rest of the league, but there may also have been a consideration for the positional draft class those years.

So, I suppose we could add another factor in their draft approach. Beyond just roster needs for the current team, what positions does the team value as core positions?

I had thought about talking about this in my earlier post as another factor, but many of the core positions line up with the salary chart. Offensive Tackle, Quarterback, Defensive Line and Cornberback are probably universally highly valued throughout the league. Going down to the middle groups, though, I think it's probably accurate to say that the Patriots have a lower positional value on the wide receiver position in comparison to the rest of the league but that they have a higher positional value on the guard, linebacker and safety positions. Further, I think that these three positions (guard, lineback and safety) represent positions of need for this team. Then again, defensive end and wide receiver can also be considered positions of need.

I don't think that anyone should be surprised if they draft two players from these three positions in their first four picks this year without drafting a wide receiver at all in those first four picks.

Edit: They may undervalue the defensive end position relative to the rest of the league, but as with Chandler Jones they will draft at the position when a great player is available.

 

[Saints Rest]

I have a TLDR at the bottom of the page. This is a two parter - one on scheme and one on prospects in the draft. It doesn't neatly fit here but since you all are talking about where Peppers fits and what Bill will do to utilize him I didn't see it as too out of place. If this needs to be moved I apologize. Also, apologies for the homework post.

Part 1 - thoughts on scheme:

In modern defenses zone schemes have a lot of man elements. Seattle cover-3 is press-zone. Quarters in many colleges and in the NFL now is man-match quarters. In theory if you don’t have speed at corner but you have it at safety you can play a 2 high concept and have at least one safety cover vertically. The issue I see with any scheme with them right now is that they don’t have enough speed on the outside. In theory you could have both safeties in “cloud” or “sky” coverage which allows them to carry vertical routes and/or be the vertical bracket on a receiver. But typically with Belichick even when he starts in a two-high shell one of the two safeties comes down to either be in run support or to play robber. If you have a team who has two fast outside guys it could be an issue for them. If they have 3 it’s a real problem. Corner play is essentially matchups and if you don’t have the horses scheme can only help so much. It’s hard to hold up when both your starting corners are 4.6+ guys.

I think the easiest change would be to go to more cover-3 if he wants to go to more zone but that’s going to put a lot of stress on both Mills and Butler.

Nick Saban, for those who are curious, uses cover 7. You can read about it here. It is a blend of man and zone concepts. I wonder if we see some of that this year. Or at least sprinkled in.

Another way to win with a mediocre group of corners is to have an elite pass rush. If you have neither an elite pass rush or a good group of corners you’re going to have a difficult time stopping the pass. IIRC they had a top 10 unit for pressure rate last year but lost KVN and High and replaced them with… guys on the roster, budget signings, and a trade.

That leads up to part 2: where they might go in the draft + state of roster

State of roster:

The best path forward with the current roster is hope Barmore takes a jump, Uche, Jennings, or Perkins steps up and takes the KVN role and does well, and Butler is good enough in coverage that they are a middle of the road defense. Oh, and hope that one of the flyers they have at ILB can be an average starter. With the secondary they might have to win even more with disguising coverages, mixing it up, and keeping the QB guessing but that’s pretty cliched because all defenses do that to some degree! It’s a lot of questions. Counting on a rookie to help is a dangerous proposition but there are guys who could probably start for them in some capacity or be a key role player year 1 in the first two rounds of the draft not including the obvious top 10 picks.

I think they go defense early and often in the draft this year.

Here are some of the names:
Jordan Davis - DT/NT
Travis Jones - DT/NT
Mathis - run stuffing two gapping DT/DE
Arnold Ebikete - OLB
Josh Paschal - Edge/IDL
Boye Mafe (he could be a really good DPR who turns into a complete player)
Nik Bonnito
Leo Chenal - ILB/OLB,
Darrian Beavers - ILB/OLB,
I’d say Damone Clark but he had spinal fusion surgery which sucks. He’s a fit though and one of my guys so listing him anyway. He WOULD have been in this tier.
Andrew Booth - CB
Dax Hill - DB
Lewis Cine - FS
Pitre - slot safety+
And then some of the slightly smaller ILBs like Devin Lloyd, Chad Muma, Tillery, etc.

I know some NE people like Elam but he can’t tackle at all and avoids it whenever possible. That’s not a trait Bill typically goes for… There are other corners who could interest him like Jalyn Armour-Davis, Kyler Gordon, and Alontae Taylor but they are not quite in this tier and probably all need a year of growth and development before contributing.

Some of you draftniks might be wondering where Jermaine Johnson went since some of us were raving about him in the draft threads. Well… the draft media caught up to us and he’s now considered a top 15 guy. Every. Freaking. Year.

In terms of the biggest 2022 need to upgrade it's corner, LG, and then ILB and OLB, (not necessarily in that order but that's where I have it). You could also argue that they still need a true NT now more than ever because their ILBs are potentially weaker this year and Godchaux really struggled at times. I didn't cover LG above because this year there are 10-12+ guys they could take in rounds 1-4 who could possibly start for them.

I could also see them trying Dax Hill as an outside corner. He has the athleticism, size, length, and man skills to do it. If he doesn't work there then he will be either your FS of the future or your slot safety/corner of the future.

So to me with those first 2 picks I would think they grab at least one person from the front 7 and one secondary piece which by need would be corner. Unfortunately if they don't get Booth and they don't think Dax Hill can play outside they are going to have to hope if they draft a guy who isn't on tape ready to contribute a ton year 1 can over perform.

As for the NTs: Jones and Davis can be above average pass rushers. It's not their strongest trait yet but if I had a nickel for every time Travis Jones got triple teamed I'd have a shit ton of nickels.

I left out some modern edge/IDL prospect 5 techs like Karlaftis and Logan Hall because I think they are too light for Bill and he usually takes those types of players in round 3-4-5 not 1-2.

TL DR: Shut the fuck up, Donny:
Corner for them is an issue but it’s not a good corner class in the draft. There are good pass rushing edges and ILBs as well as NTs (who will be able to get pressure by collapsing the pocket and/or walking back centers). Their best bet for the 2022 defense is that no matter the scheme Butler can perform like an average starter and they can squeeze out a good pass rush to mask some of the corner issues. To do that they likely invest in the front 7 because corner is not the best position in the draft.

If I had to guess right now who they would take in rounds 1/2 it would be Travis Jones (or Jordan Davis if he falls) and then Leo Chenal in round 2.

SMU, I really appreciate the depth of this post, but despite it's length, you don't really address how Peppers in particulars fits.

Put another way, based solely on the DB's on the current roster, it seems like the depth chart at CB is pretty clear with Mills, Butler and Jon Jones being your top 3, then a long drop down to Williams, Bryant, Wade, etc. But safety depth is impressive with DMac, Phillips, Dugger and Peppers filling 3 spots.

Getting back to Peppers, might his arrival signal the departure of one of the top guys? Seems hard to believe that any of the big 3 could get moved. Or will Peppers just be a ST-guy who only sees the defensive field when injuries hit (basically like Bethel), essentially making it less likely that we see some PS guy getting meaningful reps at safety?

 

[Saints Rest]

Going back to 2010 (because I am lazy but also because I think we can assume that Belichick learns and adjusts his philosophy and that this probably provides a more accurate insight into how he would approach this years draft than something from 2006).

I'm also limiting this to the first two rounds as I think that is where most likely see such a positional value, but also because I am lazy.

2010

1 Devin McCourty (CB/S - pretty sure he was drafted as a cornerback and then converted to a safety)​

2 Rob Gronkowki (TE)​

2 Jermaine Cunningham (LB)​

2 Brandon Spikes (LB)​

2011

1 Nate Solder (OL)​

2 Ras-I Dowling (CB)​

2 Shane Vereen (RB)​

2012

1 Chandler Jones (Edge)​

1 Dante Hightower (LB)​

2 Tavon Wilson (S)​

2013

2 Jamie Collins (LB)​

2 Aaron Dobson (WR)​

2014

1 Dominique Easley (DL)​

2 Jimmy Garappolo (QB)​

2015

1 Malcolm Brown (DL)​

2 Jordan Richards (S)​

2016

2 Cyrus Jones (CB)​

2017

None​

2018

1 Isaiah Wynn (OL)​

1 Sony Michel (RB)​

2 Duke Dawson (CB)​

2019

1 NKeal Harry (WR)​

2 Joejuan Williams (CB)​

2020

2 Kyle Duggar (S)​

2 Josh Uche (LB)​

2021

1 Mac Jones (QB)​

2 Christian Barmore (DL)​

So, one sure fire hall of famer at tight end, and three safeties in the second round. If you want to include McCourty in that safety group, I think it's abundantly clear that the team evaluated him as a high tier player (rightly so).

So, Kyle Duggar, Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson. How do we explain these draft picks? To me, I would view them less as Belichick going against salary valuations and more as a reflection that the team values this type of safety/special teams player at a higher value than the rest of the league, but there may also have been a consideration for the positional draft class those years.

So, I suppose we could add another factor in their draft approach. Beyond just roster needs for the current team, what positions does the team value as core positions?

I had thought about talking about this in my earlier post as another factor, but many of the core positions line up with the salary chart. Offensive Tackle, Quarterback, Defensive Line and Cornberback are probably universally highly valued throughout the league. Going down to the middle groups, though, I think it's probably accurate to say that the Patriots have a lower positional value on the wide receiver position in comparison to the rest of the league but that they have a higher positional value on the guard, linebacker and safety positions. Further, I think that these three positions (guard, lineback and safety) represent positions of need for this team.

I don't think that anyone should be surprised if they draft two players from these three positions in their first four picks this year without drafting a wide receiver at all in those first four picks.

Edit: They may undervalue the defensive end position relative to the rest of the league, but as with Chandler Jones they will draft at the position when a great player is available.

I think that the Pats, well BB in particular, value up the middle players over outside guys, especially in comparison to the rest of the league. I think its why you see the emphasis on ILB over OLB, Safety over Corner, and OLine and TE over WR.

 

[Super Nomario]

Going back to 2010 (because I am lazy but also because I think we can assume that Belichick learns and adjusts his philosophy and that this probably provides a more accurate insight into how he would approach this years draft than something from 2006).

You have to cut it off somewhere, but it's worth noting the first picks in 2009 (Chung, at 34) and 2007 (Meriweather, at 24) were also safeties.

So, Kyle Duggar, Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson. How do we explain these draft picks? To me, I would view them less as Belichick going against salary valuations and more as a reflection that the team values this type of safety/special teams player at a higher value than the rest of the league, but there may also have been a consideration for the positional draft class those years.

I agree they value those types of players more than the rest of the league, but to me that's just another way of saying they don't subscribe to this surplus salary lens that you describe above.

So, I suppose we could add another factor in their draft approach. Beyond just roster needs for the current team, what positions does the team value as core positions?

I had thought about talking about this in my earlier post as another factor, but many of the core positions line up with the salary chart. Offensive Tackle, Quarterback, Defensive Line and Cornberback are probably universally highly valued throughout the league.

It's important to segment "defensive line." The Patriots very highly value defensive tackles and have spent a lot of capital on them through the years, probably a more than most teams. On the other hand, edge rusher / defensive end is probably the #2 investment position around the league, and the Patriots have only used one top 50 pick on a true edge (Chandler Jones), and traded him before he got expensive. So I see that as an area of significant departure from league-wide notions of positional value.

I do agree they are more or less in line with conventional wisdom at OT, QB, and CB (though interestingly they have only used one first on a CB. And almost all the CBs they've draft high have had flexibility to also play S or slot).

Going down to the middle groups, though, I think it's probably accurate to say that the Patriots have a lower positional value on the wide receiver position in comparison to the rest of the league but that they have a higher positional value on the guard, linebacker and safety positions. Further, I think that these three positions (guard, lineback and safety) represent positions of need for this team.

I don't think that anyone should be surprised if they draft two players from these three positions in their first four picks this year without drafting a wide receiver at all in those first four picks.

This also wouldn't surprise me.

 

[RedOctober3829]

SMU, I really appreciate the depth of this post, but despite it's length, you don't really address how Peppers in particulars fits.

Put another way, based solely on the DB's on the current roster, it seems like the depth chart at CB is pretty clear with Mills, Butler and Jon Jones being your top 3, then a long drop down to Williams, Bryant, Wade, etc. But safety depth is impressive with DMac, Phillips, Dugger and Peppers filling 3 spots.

Getting back to Peppers, might his arrival signal the departure of one of the top guys? Seems hard to believe that any of the big 3 could get moved. Or will Peppers just be a ST-guy who only sees the defensive field when injuries hit (basically like Bethel), essentially making it less likely that we see some PS guy getting meaningful reps at safety?

You may want to read this article by Evan Lazar highlighting Peppers' play last year in zone coverage.
https://www.clnsmedia.com/lazar-patriots-bill-belichick-could-bring-out-first-round-talent-in-jabrill-peppers/

If the Pats are switching over to more and more zone, Peppers will fit right in. I can see McCourty back deep and Phillips/Dugger/Peppers all sharing roles between in the box and in coverage. Bill may be going to the approach of not having bigger and slower LB types like Hightower and Van Noy on the field trying to cover and instead adding another hybrid LB/S in their place at least in passing situations.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@Saints Rest

You got me. I completely forgot to tie that in to Peppers.

I think his role is fairly straight forward - he is going to be the backup to Phillips and Dugger. Their base defense will be big nickel with those two studs. He can also return punts. They ask their safeties to play a lot of roles and do a lot of things. Phillips played 2 high, robber, covered tight ends, slots, etc. Dugger, the same. Peppers... probably the same thing but as a backup. They didn't have a good backup for Phillips and Dugger and I think he fits that bill.

I feel like zone vs man coverage is not the biggest deal for safeties. I think a much bigger challenge for a safety is playing up top from single high vs 2-high if that makes sense. Whereas for a corner zone vs man is a huge deal.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@RedOctober3829 To build on your point we saw Phillips and/or Dugger playing in the ILB spot often last year especially when they were in dime packages.

 

[pappymojo]

You have to cut it off somewhere, but it's worth noting the first picks in 2009 (Chung, at 34) and 2007 (Meriweather, at 24) were also safeties.

I swear that was unintentional. In my head, I said ten years and then adjusted to the start of that decade.

I agree they value those types of players more than the rest of the league, but to me that's just another way of saying they don't subscribe to this surplus salary lens that you describe above.

Curious if you think the decision to draft Jimmy G was at all based on the positional salary surplus, or whether it was as simple as they thought he was going to be very good and that they were worried about Brady's health as he got older.

It's important to segment "defensive line." The Patriots very highly value defensive tackles and have spent a lot of capital on them through the years, probably a more than most teams. On the other hand, edge rusher / defensive end is probably the #2 investment position around the league, and the Patriots have only used one top 50 pick on a true edge (Chandler Jones), and traded him before he got expensive. So I see that as an area of significant departure from league-wide notions of positional value.

They did, however, acquire Matt Judon in the past off season. As well as acquiring Agholor and Bourne at wide receiver. It's not like they completely devalue the two positions.

Not arguing. Just sort of fine tuning thoughts out loud.

 

[EL Jeffe]

TL DR: Shut the fuck up, Donny:
Corner for them is an issue but it’s not a good corner class in the draft. There are good pass rushing edges and ILBs as well as NTs (who will be able to get pressure by collapsing the pocket and/or walking back centers).

I heard a really good point about NT pressure/walking centers back recently; walking centers back isn't really effective anymore because the ball generally comes out too quickly for it to impact throws. QBs are also more athletic than ever, so you don't have the statues back there where that sort of slower pressure bothers them. QBs have gotten too good at moving around in the pocket.

You have to win pretty quickly inside if you want to affect QBs. Jordan Davis and Travis Jones are the only ones with the physical traits to do that meaningfully. Maybe Mathis; he flashes some disruptive skills but he's definitely a tier below Davis & Jones in my eyes.

 

[Super Nomario]

Curious if you think the decision to draft Jimmy G was at all based on the positional salary surplus, or whether it was as simple as they thought he was going to be very good and that they were worried about Brady's health as he got older.

There are lot of frameworks / philosophies that would lead you to the conclusion that QB is pretty darn important. I don't see valuing QBs as really evidence one way or the other in terms of the "positional salary surplus" philosophy. Belichick's apparent value of other positions, I would say, is inconsistent with such a philosophy.

They did, however, acquire Matt Judon in the past off season. As well as acquiring Agholor and Bourne at wide receiver. It's not like they completely devalue the two positions.

Not arguing. Just sort of fine tuning thoughts out loud.

None of this stuff is an absolute. But over time, I think the trend is largely Belichick swimming against the conventional stream of positional value and / or building up the middle as @Saints Rest suggested above.

 

[SMU_Sox]

With some positions getting pushed down the board you can get a terrific guard or safety prospect who might even be your OG 2-3 or Safety 1-3 vs edge… 6, WR5, etc.