2022 NFL Draft Game Thread - Day 3 (Rounds 4-7)

JM3

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How do you think it would turn out if the Pats only ever drafted the best SEC player left on the board, every time their turn came? I bet they'd be able to field a damned good team that way.
Best? Yes.

Highest rated? Probably not.
 

E5 Yaz

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How do you think it would turn out if the Pats only ever drafted the best SEC player left on the board, every time their turn came? I bet they'd be able to field a damned good team that way.
Might have just done that
 

Ale Xander

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Another tackle/guard, Andrew Stueber Meechigan

“something about him”

I guess that’s something, McShay
 

Cellar-Door

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I assume they try Stueber at RT first, that's what he played at UM and he's got the size for it.
 

GB5

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Steuben is enormous, but apparently mobile with quick feet, dominant run blocker and handles himself ok in pass blocking. Played at a top football school. That is the profile of a top 30-50 pick, what are we missing?
 

Ale Xander

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Steuben is enormous, but apparently mobile with quick feet, dominant run blocker and handles himself ok in pass blocking. Played at a top football school. That is the profile of a top 30-50 pick, what are we missing?
Not athletic. Slow and opens up his shoulders and hips too early

Did you miss the Georgia game?
 

SMU_Sox

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I’m out all day but they killed it with the RBs and OL in terms of fits today. Very good picks.
 

Ale Xander

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Anyone have a list of the top UDFA targets? Especially given Belichck’s talent at finding DB talent that goes undrafted I’m eager to see whether he takes some shots on defense there.
Just give me one SEC LB with above average speed please
 

Ferm Sheller

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I forget, when do we hear about UDFA signings? Tonight, or not until some period of time passes?
 

BaseballJones

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I'd love for the Pats to sign Christopher Allen out of Alabama. Has real talent but was injured basically his entire senior season.
 

OnTheBlack

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Very hard to second guess BB… but this is a tough draft to get behind. If this draft hits he looks like a genius, if it doesn’t he looks like he threw darts at an arrogant dart board. His track record is objectively better when he goes chalk, so this doesn’t illicite a lot of confidence. Hope I’m wrong. That said Tyquan is a stud, can’t hate without putting your own pick in vs. The field.
 

ZMart100

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Very hard to second guess BB… but this is a tough draft to get behind. If this draft hits he looks like a genius, if it doesn’t he looks like he threw darts at an arrogant dart board. His track record is objectively better when he goes chalk, so this doesn’t illicite a lot of confidence. Hope I’m wrong. That said Tyquan is a stud, can’t hate without putting your own pick in vs. The field.
I'd like to see the work on this. Lots of his better picks have been against consensus- Seymour (slightly early, 1st projection but not top 10), Light, Mankins, DMac, Gronk (a little "early" but not quite as far as some of the others), Solder, Thuney and (hopefully) Dugger come to mind as working against your thesis.
 

rodderick

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I'd like to see the work on this. Lots of his better picks have been against consensus- Seymour (slightly early, 1st projection but not top 10), Light, Mankins, DMac, Gronk (a little "early" but not quite as far as some of the others), Solder, Thuney and (hopefully) Dugger come to mind as working against your thesis.
McCourty, Gronk, Solder and Dugger went in the range they were projected at.
 

ZMart100

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McCourty, Gronk, Solder and Dugger went in the range they were projected at.
Fair on most of those guys now that I look it up. I don't pay much attention to predraft rankings. Gronk's projections were all over the place because of the medical concerns, so he was a weird prospect. Still I'm not sure that there is a case to be made that objectively "chalk" works out better. I'd like to see that argument.
 

rodderick

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Fair on most of those guys now that I look it up. I don't pay much attention to predraft rankings. Gronk's projections were all over the place because of the medical concerns, so he was a weird prospect. Still I'm not sure that there is a case to be made that objectively "chalk" works out better. I'd like to see that argument.
I agree, following the consensus has no intrinsic value, but I do think their number of hits when going far off board isn't as high as some make it out to be. It's mostly OL they've had success doing that with (Mankins, Vollmer, Thuney), which at the very least bodes well for Strange.
 

ZMart100

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I agree, following the consensus has no intrinsic value, but I do think their number of hits when going far off board isn't as high as some make it out to be. It's mostly OL they've had success doing that with (Mankins, Vollmer, Thuney), which at the very least bodes well for Strange.
Who are the misses when the Pats go against consensus? Duke Dawson and Vincent Valentine (I really liked him as a prospect) were the only ones who popped out scanning the draft history. Admittedly I forget what the consensus was on some guys like Gus Scott and Brock Williams.

Duron Harmon and Tavon Wilson probably should go on the credit list.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Who are the misses when the Pats go against consensus? Duke Dawson and Vincent Valentine (I really liked him as a prospect) were the only ones who popped out scanning the draft history. Admittedly I forget what the consensus was on some guys like Gus Scott and Brock Williams.

Duron Harmon and Tavon Wilson probably should go on the credit list.
I don’t know about Wilson. He wasn’t a bust but he was a fairly minor defensive contributor (more on specials tho) who left after four years. Lots of second round picks end up like that but I’m not sure I can put him in the credit category.

Jordan Richards was another “reach” that didn’t really pan out.
 
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BaseballJones

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At what point do we stop calling guys reaches? Because in the fifth round of the 2020 draft BB took that stupid kicker that didn’t pan out at all. Complete waste of a pick.
 

ZMart100

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I don’t know about Wilson. He wasn’t a bust but he was a fairly minor defensive contributor (more on specials tho) who left after four years. Lots of second round picks end up like that but I’m not sure I can put him in the credit category.

Jordan Richards was another “reach” that didn’t really pan out.
A 10 year career is pretty good for a second round pick or any pick really. Jordan Richards had an 8 year career, not bad at the end of the 2nd round really. Stars? No, but NFL players.

At what point do we stop calling guys reaches? Because in the fifth round of the 2020 draft BB took that stupid kicker that didn’t pan out at all. Complete waste of a pick.
A lot of players don't pan out. The draft commentary industry barely attempts K/P evaluation, so I wouldn't list them. I was only looking at rounds 1-3 and trying to find people with projections at least two rounds after they were drafted.

The whole concept of a "reach" seems backwards to me. What's more likely, that the Mel Kipers of the world missed an evaluation or that a team with a small army of scouts and another of coaches missed the evaluation. The draft gurus are wrong about a player's value, but rather than consider the possibility that they erred they claim the team messed up.* @OnTheBlack used the word arrogant and they are right that draft arrogance is a problem, but it is not BB or any team that is being arrogant because they disagree about a player with the ESPN talking heads.

*Of course some highly regarded players won't work out. It happens.
 

kenneycb

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I don’t know about Wilson. He wasn’t a bust but he was a fairly minor defensive contributor (more on specials tho) who left after four years. Lots of second round picks end up like that but I’m not sure I can put him in the credit category.

Jordan Richards was another “reach” that didn’t really pan out.
Many people put Wilson in the bust category because they hated the pick and he wasnt a thing special but he’s had a 9 year career with multiple multi-year contracts. That’s probably in the upper 50% of second round outcomes. No great shakes but his AV puts him as a second / third rounder from that draft so he’s more or less played up to expectations, if not slightly below.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Many people put Wilson in the bust category because they hated the pick and he wasnt a thing special but he’s had a 9 year career with multiple multi-year contracts. That’s probably in the upper 50% of second round outcomes. No great shakes but his AV puts him as a second / third rounder from that draft so he’s more or less played up to expectations, if not slightly below.
I called him not a bust but not in the credit category either so that seems consistent with what I said.

Wilson also amassed most of that AV after he left NE. I think there’s a good argument that draft success is really about what a guy does on the first contract and then any extensions you give prior to FA.
 

AlNipper49

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Anyone have a list of the top UDFA targets? Especially given Belichck’s talent at finding DB talent that goes undrafted I’m eager to see whether he takes some shots on defense there.
I’m gunning for giving Justyn Ross a chance. That dude was clutch for Clemson.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m gunning for giving Justyn Ross a chance. That dude was clutch for Clemson.
He was awesome before the injuries. The fact that he hasn’t even gotten an UDFA deal leads me to believe that teams don’t think he’ll ever be able to play due to the back stuff? But I don’t see any downside here, especially for a Pats team that needs young WR talent.
 

AlNipper49

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Yeah I mean it has to be the medical. My guess is that teams didn’t want to take an early flyer because of the nature of his injuries - he’s potentially a bad hit away from being paralyzed.

He was (imho) WR1 playing with Refrow, Higgins and Cooper. Following his tweets he doesn’t seem to be too worried about it, but I guess 30+ teams do not concur.
 

Cellar-Door

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I feel really bad for the kid. Would have been a 1st rounder if NFL allowed Freshmen to declare.
Probably not honestly because the combine physical likely flags the neck issue but maybe teams would be more willing to draft him late without the performance decline, broken foot and terrible combine