2022 NFL Draft Game Thread-Day 2

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,084
I wanted Chanel. I don’t understand why bb didn’t

our d is going to be BAD, especially vs the bills
 

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,084
Chenal was otherworldly at Wisconsin. If there weren’t serious doubts about his athleticism against NFL talent, he’d have been gone long ago.
His measurables seem really good - I don’t get the concerns over athleticism
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
Yeah, there's an awful of players who many thought were solid, good scheme fits, etc. that the Patriots had the opportunity for that they just didn't bite on. Trading out of the second 3rd round pick was them choosing not to take Chenal, Tindall, et al. Interesting choices being made there given their needs at the position. They literally must not have been on the Patriots board.

For those trying to assess the McVay video clip, more info in their first draft pick. They reached for an OG as well, right? So maybe they were disappointed and not disrespecting the Patriots.
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,167
Manchester, N.H.
I’m kinda curious what critics expect Belichick to do in the draft here. Like, we know the Bills whipped the Pats last year. The CB pick seems aimed at part of that where McKenzie and Crowder have given NE fits on their respective teams. People hated that WRs could not get separation so they get a burner who may be able to do that and provide a dimension that Meyers and Parker don’t. They have a young immobile QB so they get a guard to hopefully prevent the highly talented D lines from destroying him.

I get the want for a premier LB prospect given Dawson Knox and Josh Allen destroying folks last time we saw them but there’s a lot of things to fix in terms of that, this seems to be an attempt to do some of that. I suspect the fairly large projected cap space and accumulated picks next year will be a big part of that. The Bills have built a great team and are spending heavily to maximize it now, it’ll be tough for a bit.

Time will tell. If Chenal and Skyy become all pros then it’ll look bad, but it’s time.
 
Last edited:

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
27,056
Isn’t the concern that Chenal cannot cover anyone?
SO looking at some pre-draft weaknesses listed:
Zierlien (3rd/4th round grade): Poor in both man and zone, agility concerns, poor recognition, poor in pursuit
DraftNetwork: Lateral mobility, coverage of all types,
PFN: coverage, Lateral mobility
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,725
I’m usually rah rah team BB and still think it’s more likely than not that the results will be there, but I can’t help but feel pretty disappointed in this draft. I know I know nothing, but they had so many bites at the apple of guys who sure seemed like ideal fits for this team and they just wouldn’t do it. I have no idea why other than that they didn’t want to draft those guys for some reason. Which I don’t get. They have a million picks tomorrow and BB usually does great in this phase of the draft so let’s hope he knocks it out of the park on Saturday and even with UDFAs.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,802
I’m kinda curious what critics expect Belichick to do in the draft here. Like, we know the Bills whipped the Pats last year. The CB pick seems aimed at part of that where McKenzie and Crowder have given NE fits on their respective teams. People hated that WRs could not get separation so they get a burner who may be able to do that and provide a dimension that Meyers and Parker don’t. They have a young immobile QB so they get a guard to hopefully prevent the highly talented D lines from destroying him.

I get the want for a premier LB prospect given Dawson Knox and Josh Allen destroying folks last time we saw them but there’s a lot of things to fix in terms of that, this seems to be an attempt to do some of that. I suspect the fairly large projected cap space and accumulated picks next year will be a big part of that. The Bills have built a great team and are spending heavily to maximize it now, it’ll be tough for a bit.

Time will tell. If Chenal and Skyy become all pros then it’ll look bad, but it’s time.
Seems like an over correction to go Thornton when they did, Nkeal was slow and big so lets get literally the fastest and thinnest WR available. Problem is the track record for success with that profile is non-existant. Best case scenario is a healthy Will Fuller or Robby Anderson, the lists of busts vastly outweighs those two. Give me a 4.5 route runner like Deion Branch over a 4.3 straight line burner every day all day.
 
Aug 9, 2015
407
I’m usually rah rah team BB and still think it’s more likely than not that the results will be there, but I can’t help but feel pretty disappointed in this draft. I know I know nothing, but they had so many bites at the apple of guys who sure seemed like ideal fits for this team and they just wouldn’t do it. I have no idea why other than that they didn’t want to draft those guys for some reason. Which I don’t get. They have a million picks tomorrow and BB usually does great in this phase of the draft so let’s hope he knocks it out of the park on Saturday and even with UDFAs.
He does do well in the part of the draft, although it often requires a redshirt year for the player to contribute. I also think they passed on some potential impact players on D (Jermaine Johnson, Devin Lloyd, Trent McDuffie), and it’s going to sting if the Pats continue to look a step behind against the good teams and those players flourish elsewhere.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,988
Dallas
Some notes
The division has a ton of small fast WRs. Many are slots. I don’t like Marcus Jones against bigger slots or outside receivers. Pierce whooped on him for example. However, he can lock down the smaller guys.
I went into Thornton’s tape tonight thinking he would stink. I can understand why some teams had him highly ranked. I’m still digesting him but he and Romeo Doubs, for example are ranked on the consensus board around the same spot. I like Thornton much more.

A lot of analysts seem to think he’s fatally linear and can’t execute a full route tree. He’s a little high cut but I didn’t see it. To be fair though I didn’t see him asked to run a lot of quick horizontal breaks. I think he’s fine for an X. He is scrappy. Plays a lot bigger than his weight as a run blocker. His QB was beyond awful. In the game Matt, Jared, and I watched he had 1 TD and would have had 2 more but for his quarterback. Wide open and burned outside press coverage. That excites me. I think it was @EL Jeffe who speculated had he played on a team with a better QB if we wouldn’t be so shocked. My initial thought was:

(Attached file) and that applies to Thornton too. I need to watch more tape but he at least flashed starter traits. He should at the least be a deep threat. He used deception well in some of his limited routes. Is he a complete receiver? Probably not. Can he be a good X? Like so many other guys in this class some of those traits look very good and others, his ability to sink his hips, not so much.

Daniel Jeremiah was talking before the draft that this year was going to be chaos and that none of the boards were the same. That played out.
 

Attachments

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
16,541
Somewhere
I'm mostly puzzled by how the linebackers in the draft have slid so far.

Is there something about their tape that screams about their inability to adapt to the NFL? Chenal certainly looks the part. Maybe he's more Bentley than Hightower? I have no idea.

Anyways, I'm going with Kalon Barnes, Zyon McCollum, and Bo Melton to complete the Al Davis draft this year.
 
Aug 9, 2015
407
I'm mostly puzzled by how the linebackers in the draft have slid so far.

Is there something about their tape that screams about their inability to adapt to the NFL? Chenal certainly looks the part. Maybe he's more Bentley than Hightower? I have no idea.

Anyways, I'm going with Kalon Barnes, Zyon McCollum, and Bo Melton to complete the Al Davis draft this year.
+Tariq Woolen
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
42,168
I’m coming around on this draft. One of my biggest complaints about this team from last year is how slow they looked on both sides of the ball. With these first 3 picks, we’ve drafted some very athletic guys for their positions. Strange probably slots in right away. Thornton feels like a perfect developmental depth guy who has a chance to contribute once he settled in. Jones probably has a ST return role right away and provides nickel depth behind JJ. All in all, I’m pretty pleased so far no matter how bad people think they “reached”.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have 6 picks in the 4th. Six!
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
I think it’s pretty clear what Groh and BB wanted out of this draft. Speed and athleticism. Whether they picked the right players remains to be seen.
The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
31,237
Hingham, MA
As someone who isn't too concerned with how the team performs in 2022, with more of an eye on 2023 "true" contention, I love the trade with Carolina. That pick has a great chance to end up in the 65-70 range.

Edit: the Pats made a similar trade with Carolina once before. In 2010, they traded 89 for Carolina's 2nd round pick, which became 33 (and, unfortunately, Ras-I Dowling).
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,992
New York City
The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.
They didn’t have the worlds fastest linebacker corp, for sure, and hopefully McGrine and Wilson help with that, but I think what happened against Buffalo wasn’t just athletic, but perhaps even more importantly that Daboll had the team completely perplexed. You take a slower player put him out of position and give him a late start Mon a play and the result is two games of Allen basically not even getting to third downs.

fast linebackers or not, if they get our coaches like that again they lose again.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
They didn’t have the worlds fastest linebacker corp, for sure, and hopefully McGrine and Wilson help with that, but I think what happened against Buffalo wasn’t just athletic, but perhaps even more importantly that Daboll had the team completely perplexed. You take a slower player put him out of position and give him a late start Mon a play and the result is two games of Allen basically not even getting to third downs.

fast linebackers or not, if they get our coaches like that again they lose again.
I agree 100%. You don't do what Buffalo did to them in two straight games solely because of athletic superiority. I was making a more general point. But it could very well be that they believe they have enough athletic linebackers in the roster with McGrone, Wilson, Uche, Jennings and company. All that's left is to see if those guys can play.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
14,098
UWS, NYC
Is Ronnie Perkins still a thing? Asking because his potential return in 2022 hasn’t been mentioned much at all on SoSH… and I know I just had to Google “Patriots Oklahoma 2021 draft edge” to remember his name.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Is Ronnie Perkins still a thing? Asking because his potential return in 2022 hasn’t been mentioned much at all on SoSH… and I know I just had to Google “Patriots Oklahoma 2021 draft edge” to remember his name.
The list of edge defenders drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds by the Patriots who didn't play at all in their rookie seasons and ended up being contributors has only one name: Trey Flowers. None of the other guys (Shawn Crable, Jake Bequette, Marquise Hill, Geneo Grissom, Derek Rivers) amounted to anything.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Just read something interesting: 82% of the consensus big board's top 105 players have been selected in the first 105 picks of the draft. 28 out of the top 32 players on the consensus big board went in the first. Seems like the discrepancy in evaluation isn't as large as some believe.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,725
Just read something interesting: 82% of the consensus big board's top 105 players have been selected in the first 105 picks of the draft. 28 out of the top 32 players on the consensus big board went in the first. Seems like the discrepancy in evaluation isn't as large as some believe.
I wonder how often Bill selects outside the “consensus”. We know from the data that he’s good at drafting. But how much does he draft outside the consensus?
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
One of the advantages of having a BB like GM/coach pairing is that he can make a decision or series of them that have an IDGAF edge to them. By that I mean he can make a decision without caring what anyone else would do, or what the media thinks or what other organizations would think. There is a freedom in that for many aspects of running a team. He can keep an undrafted free agent over the player with no draft pedigree because he's not worried about the media writing that he screwed up the draft. (And that culture also makes his team desirable for future quality UDFAs knowing they have a genuine opportunity.) He can trade picks into the future like he did with Carolina knowing that the pick is still his (or the Patriots in general) - gaining significant potential draft currency in this case. A GM worried his job - looking over his shoulder, that pick would be made in the present. BB can draft players that aren't on the consensus big board for a given round, because he's thinking with processes that don't match other teams (typically a very small pool of desired players), or he's willing to pay a premium to get what he wants if that is what it takes. I'm not saying he can just sit there perpetually splashing the draft pot, but he's got room to seek out what he thinks will work for him. I haven't considered BB diverging from the NFL group think herd a negative since about his 2nd ring.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
While I get that drafting within the consensus like the Jets, Ravens and Chiefs have done doesn't necessarily mean you'll get good results, I also struggle to see any intrinsic value in not following the consensus. Some of the best Patriots drafts have come when they picked the sort of players fans knew and wanted (2012, 2021). On the flip side, they got a lot of names in 2019 and it didn't work out. Sure, Bill has more freedom to go outside the consensus than most GMs, but I do wonder if that doesn't have the side effect of making him a little too set on his ways and unwilling to deviate from his specific parameters for what a player should be able to do.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
27,056
The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.
On the one hand yes, on the other...
They traded for a LB, they are getting back two LBs they drafted last year, and getting back McMillan a recent high pick who is athletic.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
While I get that drafting within the consensus like the Jets, Ravens and Chiefs have done doesn't necessarily mean you'll get good results, I also struggle to see any intrinsic value in not following the consensus. Some of the best Patriots drafts have come when they picked the sort of players fans knew and wanted (2012, 2021). On the flip side, they got a lot of names in 2019 and it didn't work out. Sure, Bill has more freedom to go outside the consensus than most GMs, but I do wonder if that doesn't have the side effect of making him a little too set on his ways and unwilling to deviate from his specific parameters for what a player should be able to do.
Look at the players in last years draft. People were squawking about what they did, and in what order. At the end of the day, they got results and if BB was zigging while everyone else was zagging maybe they was a strategic advantage to him. It's fair to say that last years draft was exceptionally successful (especially in the context of his last X drafts), but it's our most recent data point.

Also, if everyone has player X rated as 4th best at his position, definite first round grade but after talking with the college clubhouse guy that the player is never on time, or to the neighbors brother that the kid never cracks his playbook - so BB believes he won't be successful - do you want BB to draft him because it's the consensus? If we say it's a defensive player, and BB values constantly morphing the defense to keep the QB on his toes, if the player can't absorb the various changes/fluidity to the position and is only likely to play 1 down out of 4 for BB, where is the value versus the consensus? A highly slanted hypothetical to be sure, but the premise is valid. Whatever process(es) allows BB to get players in house that allow him to meet goals he has on the field the higher the chance of success in any given year. I don't care if his draft process is diametrically opposed to the consensus, until that moment when he really has fallen behind the rest of the league. [This isn't to say that I think he is diverging from the consensus out of spite or amusement evil villain style, I think he is simply being true to his professional beliefs with an IDGAF attitude about what everyone else is doing. His only interest in what everyone else is doing would seem to be for the data he can mine to get a strategic/tactical advantage about moving up/down.]
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
9,952
NH
Don’t know if I’m talking myself into this draft so far but after really thinking about the positions that were drafted it makes a lot of sense.

Was the oline an issue? Yup. When they finally had the right personnel out there and could protect Mac the offense was much better. In comes Strange. Maybe not the name we were all hoping for but the kid looks like a day one starter. Which is what you want in the first round.

Were the receivers an issue? Yup. We all saw Mac pinpoint balls to receivers that couldn’t get separation. A lot of us talk about having that true deep threat with freakish speed. In comes Thornton. Again not the name we were hoping for but the kids potential is off the charts. As others have said, you can’t teach sub 4.3 speed, especially at 6’2” plus.

Finally, was covering the slot an issue? Yup. When Jon Jones went down we had no one that could effectively cover those quick slot guys. In comes Marcus. Ridiculous athlete at the DB position and as an added plus is a top level KR/PR. Not a sexy name but makes sense for the roster as currently constructed.

Hopefully the front seven gets some love today. The positions drafted so far make a ton of sense even if the names weren’t the consensus top players available.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,376
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Look at the players in last years draft. People were squawking about what they did, and in what order. At the end of the day, they got results and if BB was zigging while everyone else was zagging maybe they was a strategic advantage to him. It's fair to say that last years draft was exceptionally successful (especially in the context of his last X drafts), but it's our most recent data point.

Also, if everyone has player X rated as 4th best at his position, definite first round grade but after talking with the college clubhouse guy that the player is never on time, or to the neighbors brother that the kid never cracks his playbook - so BB believes he won't be successful - do you want BB to draft him because it's the consensus? If we say it's a defensive player, and BB values constantly morphing the defense to keep the QB on his toes, if the player can't absorb the various changes/fluidity to the position and is only likely to play 1 down out of 4 for BB, where is the value versus the consensus? A highly slanted hypothetical to be sure, but the premise is valid. Whatever process(es) allows BB to get players in house that allow him to meet goals he has on the field the higher the chance of success in any given year. I don't care if his draft process is diametrically opposed to the consensus, until that moment when he really has fallen behind the rest of the league. [This isn't to say that I think he is diverging from the consensus out of spite or amusement evil villain style, I think he is simply being true to his professional beliefs with an IDGAF attitude about what everyone else is doing. His only interest in what everyone else is doing would seem to be for the data he can mine to get a strategic/tactical advantage about moving up/down.]
Last year consensus big board had Mac Jones 14th, the Pats took him at 15. Had Christian Barmore 28th and they took him at 38. Had Ronnie Perkins 58th and the Patriots took him at 96. Had Rhamondre Stevenson 137th and they took him at 120. Had McGrone 112th and they took him at 177. Had Bledsoe 194th and they took him at 188. They went off board with Sherman and Nixon, their last two picks.

Last year the Patriots basically went chalk with the consensus. They 100% did not zig when everyone else was zagging.
 

pdaj

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,276
From Waltham to Providence
this woman makeing the picks is easy on the eyes
She's Dawn Aponte, a highly respected/experienced front office administrator for the NFL. She was with the Dolphins FO for years and was frequently coined as their "cap expert." Up until yesterday, I had no clue what she looked like. Pleasantly surprised!

Edit: Once considered a GM candidate, also.

Meet Dawn Aponte: The Dolphin's Most Powerful Woman and Possible GM Candidate | Riptide 2.0 | Miami | Miami New Times | The Leading Independent News Source in Miami, Florida
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Dope
Mar 19, 2004
14,302
Missoula, MT
this woman makeing the picks is easy on the eyes
Let's keep these threads on topic. Thanks.

She's Dawn Aponte, a highly respected/experienced front office administrator for the NFL. She was with the Dolphins FO for years and was frequently coined as their "cap expert." Up until yesterday, I had no clue what she looked like. Pleasantly surprised!

Edit: Once considered a GM candidate, also.

Meet Dawn Aponte: The Dolphin's Most Powerful Woman and Possible GM Candidate | Riptide 2.0 | Miami | Miami New Times | The Leading Independent News Source in Miami, Florida
Thanks for the context. Again, though, on topic.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
Last year consensus big board had Mac Jones 14th, the Pats took him at 15. Had Christian Barmore 28th and they took him at 38. Had Ronnie Perkins 58th and the Patriots took him at 96. Had Rhamondre Stevenson 137th and they took him at 120. Had McGrone 112th and they took him at 177. Had Bledsoe 194th and they took him at 188. They went off board with Sherman and Nixon, their last two picks.

Last year the Patriots basically went chalk with the consensus. They 100% did not zig when everyone else was zagging.
  • Jones had been talked about as high as 3. BB did not pay a premium and jump up to grab him, people were talking about the Patriots going up to 4-5 picks to get him (or at least one of the QBs). He could have moved when he was expected to - he didn't. Consensus: he took a risk waiting for the player to fall to him when he had the capital to move up for him.
  • BB paid a 2 draft pick premium (2 fourth rounders) to get his hands on Barmore - a serious overpay in some circles. Many were waiting for BB to trade some of that draft excess out to the future, instead he packaged some and went up. Consensus: not great value.
  • Perkins was a questionable pick for many, as he was redundant in the face of other needs and had failed a drug test in college (which likely contributed to his to slip). He was slipping, yet, they drafted value there, a round outside consensus.
  • Stevenson like Perkins had a drug test issue in college, and the Patriots had other more pressing needs given a full running back room (they ended up trading Sony Michel, right?). They took him a bit earlier than he was rated, pretty much a wash for consensus.
  • McGrone was dropping like a stone because of his medicals - the team went away from consensus and took a gamble on him for the future (assuming they would medically redshirt him a year?). Regardless of where he was ranked, league consensus after dropping almost 2 rounds was he wasn't worth the medical risk - BB took him anyway (at a discount). Just like he did with some big goofy TE a while back - sometimes you win.
  • Bledsoe was a wash for consensus
  • Sherman and Nixon were as you say off board.
I'm not saying BB broke the draft, fairly I think it is reasonable to say it was a damn good one (and they needed a good draft). But he went against grain, against consensus, against expectations. If you want to say that drafting significantly below ranking for value isn't 'zagging', ok, pick your own term - but it's still a net positive for the team (if they produce). I think if the player is dropping a round or more it's reasonable to say it was outside consensus. No matter the vocabulary, he went against the grain. 2 players slipped more than a round (Perkins, McGrone), 1 (Barmore) he overpaid to get regardless of his ranking and resultant value, 1 (Jones) he stayed motionless instead of overpaying.

That's 4 of his top 5, and in my book 6 of 8 in total. I respect others opinions, but that's my take.
 

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
10,428
Washington, DC
  • Jones had been talked about as high as 3. BB did not pay a premium and jump up to grab him, people were talking about the Patriots going up to 4-5 picks to get him (or at least one of the QBs). He could have moved when he was expected to - he didn't. Consensus: he took a risk waiting for the player to fall to him when he had the capital to move up for him.
  • BB paid a 2 draft pick premium (2 fourth rounders) to get his hands on Barmore - a serious overpay in some circles. Many were waiting for BB to trade some of that draft excess out to the future, instead he packaged some and went up. Consensus: not great value.
  • Perkins was a questionable pick for many, as he was redundant in the face of other needs and had failed a drug test in college (which likely contributed to his to slip). He was slipping, yet, they drafted value there, a round outside consensus.
  • Stevenson like Perkins had a drug test issue in college, and the Patriots had other more pressing needs given a full running back room (they ended up trading Sony Michel, right?). They took him a bit earlier than he was rated, pretty much a wash for consensus.
  • McGrone was dropping like a stone because of his medicals - the team went away from consensus and took a gamble on him for the future (assuming they would medically redshirt him a year?). Regardless of where he was ranked, league consensus after dropping almost 2 rounds was he wasn't worth the medical risk - BB took him anyway (at a discount). Just like he did with some big goofy TE a while back - sometimes you win.
  • Bledsoe was a wash for consensus
  • Sherman and Nixon were as you say off board.
I'm not saying BB broke the draft, fairly I think it is reasonable to say it was a damn good one (and they needed a good draft). But he went against grain, against consensus, against expectations. If you want to say that drafting significantly below ranking for value isn't 'zagging', ok, pick your own term - but it's still a net positive for the team (if they produce). I think if the player is dropping a round or more it's reasonable to say it was outside consensus. No matter the vocabulary, he went against the grain. 2 players slipped more than a round (Perkins, McGrone), 1 (Barmore) he overpaid to get regardless of his ranking and resultant value, 1 (Jones) he stayed motionless instead of overpaying.

That's 4 of his top 5, and in my book 6 of 8 in total. I respect others opinions, but that's my take.
Taking a player who's dropped a round below the consensus ratings doesn't really scream "breaking consensus" - to me that's indistinguishable from "took a value pick because Bill agreed with how highly the consensus rated the player much more than other teams did". What BB did that draft went against what other teams were doing, yes, but when we talk about whether teams went along with consensus we are usually talking about whether they went along how draftniks saw the player as whole, whereas you seem to be talking about two different consensuses (consensi?) - the draft board and the teams.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
15,360
I saw this and thought it was interesting. I didn't realize that there are so many highly rated QBs in next year's draft.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1521229451920658432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521229451920658432%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthespun.com%2Fnfl%2Fmel-kiper-reveals-bold-prediction-for-2023-nfl-draft

ESPN draft analysts @MelKiperESPN , along with @McShay13, set the over/under for quarterbacks to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft at 6.5. And Kiper is going with the over.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
Taking a player who's dropped a round below the consensus ratings doesn't really scream "breaking consensus" - to me that's indistinguishable from "took a value pick because Bill agreed with how highly the consensus rated the player much more than other teams did". What BB did that draft went against what other teams were doing, yes, but when we talk about whether teams went along with consensus we are usually talking about whether they went along how draftniks saw the player as whole, whereas you seem to be talking about two different consensuses (consensi?) - the draft board and the teams.
You are obviously correct, but in some ways it's semantics. Every time he drafts someone more than about a round "early", all the pundits cry "reach" and "grade" him as poor value moves. He moved up to get Barmore (at the cost of 2 number 4s) and again the refrain "poor value". My point is maybe there is strategic value to what he is doing, that qualifies as doing the unexpected - or going against the grain, or against consensus. Consensus was that he paid too much to get back in that round to get Barmore. If folks mean it is a different "consensus" than that of the specific round/evaluation big board consensus, then sure - 100% you are absolutely right. As others have stated since my original post (perhaps in other threads), at the end of the day he obviously views his machinations as valuable, regardless of what other teams/media/fans/3rd party experts think about 'consensus' or value, or reaching, or whatever. Everyone celebrates the wonderful draft the Ravens have every year, and they might as well have the intern check ESPN "on the clock" entry for the highest value remaining column - for better or worse.

I tried calling working against the group think "zigging/zagging" and was chastised, that he had gone with consensus. I tried to say he went against the grain of expectations, and again used the verboten word "consensus". I'll take a slap on the wrist for violating terminology. What he does has strategic value to him (and his bosses), and he didn't get the totality of the class last year by operating the way the group think crowd thought he should. Maybe doing it their way would have worked out better for the Patriots, maybe not. According to the group think last year he paid too much for Barmore - and yet I got to watch him on the defensive side of the ball for the Pats. Give me a better/acceptable phrase, I'll use it. Consistently drafting ST higher than the majority of the league. Running a significantly smaller player pool than the majority of the league. Putting a premium on positions the rest of the league doesn't seem to agree with. Drafting players however early he needs to in order to ensure he gets them (not always, but for certain players in certain drafts). Frequently trading picks out to future years, to improve quantity/value in future years. Not drafting positions as frequently as the rest of the league like WR (thankfully give the minimal success rate?). He has a modus operandi (whether folks agree it is successful or not), and his MO is often in opposition to group think.

Finally, BB takes a holistic view to team building, balancing short term/long term roster construction. The totality of his approach limits the draft pressure he feels in any given year. Grading or judging his draft without taking account the other components of roster construction is a joke anyway - and yet the criticism he takes even here on SoSH about his draft (in isolation) is amusing. I don't know how many hundreds of variables went into decision X, but we're good saying he's had a terrible draft because "the Pats didn't need another RB!!!!" Remember when the media/pundits/experts noted the Patriots didn't get much from the draft that year but ignored the capital he spent to get WR Cooks on the roster (or the same the year he acquired Moss)? He is forever tweaking/adjusting/adapting his approach to roster construction - but not to save his job - to position the Patriots to be as successful as he can for as long as he can. Other teams/GMs make that claim (while looking over their shoulder) - he walks the walk. Group think be damned - or whatever we want to call it.
 
Last edited:

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
3,594
I saw this and thought it was interesting. I didn't realize that there are so many highly rated QBs in next year's draft.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1521229451920658432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521229451920658432%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthespun.com%2Fnfl%2Fmel-kiper-reveals-bold-prediction-for-2023-nfl-draft

ESPN draft analysts @MelKiperESPN , along with @McShay13, set the over/under for quarterbacks to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft at 6.5. And Kiper is going with the over.
Remember, at this time last year, many projected Spencer Rattler to go #1. Howell was top 10 on many boards. Other QBs talked about as potential 1st round picks included Willis, Corral, Strong, Ridder, Kedon Slovis as well as Pickett. I think I even remember Daniels and Bo Nix in the first in a few early mocks.
Just based on history, there is likely to be more than 1 QB taken but how many and who they are is hard to tell at this point. I don't think there is a Trevor Lawrence type prospect. Beside that, how many teams will be looking for a QB next year?