2022 NFL Draft Game Thread-Day 1

twibnotes

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I don’t get why everyone expects BB to change what has always worked for him. Of course he makes mistakes and has since 2000. But why change the process that has been working. Is it bc Mac isn’t Brady? Was Brady BRADY after year one? Idk. Maybe BB knows better than us and hasn’t gone five years without making a SB. Wait??? The year after this we can match that!

you could be absolutely right…but here’s my thinking around why a diff approach could be appropriate…

I think during the Brady years we had a bit of a cap advantage since Brady was cheaper than he should have been…this helped with FA signings and maybe bb could take a more unconventional approach to the draft. With Mac it feels more like we need to land a few blue chip guys in skill positions to be a SB competitor…or we need a badass d
 

Captaincoop

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Might be a good sign they don’t have a finger on the pulse of the first third of the draft seeing as they’re coming off a title and don’t have a pick until 104. Plus they’re clearly feeling themselves at that swanky draft party.
Plus he's probably still a little rattled that Finch hooked up with his mom.
 

Shelterdog

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Huh? I trust him to grade this guy appropriately. But a good guard taken in the 4th round and later is value, a good guard taken in the 1st isn't, in my view. Would you have been happy with a first round pick who ended up having Stephen Neal's career? I sure wouldn't. If he's Mankins it's a good pick.
I’d be thrilled to get Neal’s career from a late first round pick as would all 32 NFL GMs
 

BaseballJones

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I did this analysis prior to the 2021 season, so the numbers may have changed slightly, but the #29 pick in the draft from 2000-2020 (so 21 picks) accumulated 1,767 games, 553 career AV, was 1st team all-pro 7 times, and made the pro bowl 18 times.

That averages out to, over 21 picks:

- 84.1 games
- 27.7 career AV (0.33 AV/G)
- one all-pro appearance for every 3 guys drafted #29
- one pro-bowl appearance for every 1.2 guys drafted #29

Stephen Neal didn't make an all-pro or pro-bowl, but he accumulated 50 career AV and started 81 out of 86 games over his career. His career AV/G was 0.58, nearly double that of the average #29 pick.

So yeah, if this kid turns out to be Stephen Neal, that's a hell of a pick.
 

rodderick

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I did this analysis prior to the 2021 season, so the numbers may have changed slightly, but the #29 pick in the draft from 2000-2020 (so 21 picks) accumulated 1,767 games, 553 career AV, was 1st team all-pro 7 times, and made the pro bowl 18 times.

That averages out to, over 21 picks:

- 84.1 games
- 27.7 career AV (0.33 AV/G)
- one all-pro appearance for every 3 guys drafted #29
- one pro-bowl appearance for every 1.2 guys drafted #29

Stephen Neal didn't make an all-pro or pro-bowl, but he accumulated 50 career AV and started 81 out of 86 games over his career. His career AV/G was 0.58, nearly double that of the average #29 pick.

So yeah, if this kid turns out to be Stephen Neal, that's a hell of a pick.
"Started 81 out of 86 games" is a little disingenuous. He was in the NFL for 8 seasons, so out of a possible 128 games he played in 86 and started 81.

They just traded a guard with 50 career AV and 98 starts out of 112 possible games for a 5th round pick. I just think a Steve Neal/Shaq Mason equivalent LB or CB is far more valuable than having that guy at guard.

Also, doesn't including guys drafted in 2018, 2019 and 2020 skew the AV lower by default? Wouldn't it be better to have it as AV/year played?
 
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BaseballJones

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I get that take and I'm sympathetic towards it. What they ended up doing was:

- Traded an aging and slipping G in Shaq Mason (at ~$10m a year) for a 5th round pick.
- Then traded down in the draft 8 spots, while picking up 3rd and 4th round picks.
- Then drafted a cheaper, younger, and more athletic G to replace Mason.

So they get younger, cheaper, more athletic at G, while adding three draft picks. If you do things like that over the long haul, you're making a killing. Of course, the player has to pan out.

I'm with you in that I think I would have risked Strange being there in the 2nd round, and I'd have drafted Chenal or Travis Jones, but I think at the end of the day Strange is going to be a terrific player for a long time for them, and yes, it was a position of need. Maybe not the #1 position of need, but a need nonetheless.
 

rodderick

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I get that take and I'm sympathetic towards it. What they ended up doing was:

- Traded an aging and slipping G in Shaq Mason (at ~$10m a year) for a 5th round pick.
- Then traded down in the draft 8 spots, while picking up 3rd and 4th round picks.
- Then drafted a cheaper, younger, and more athletic G to replace Mason.

So they get younger, cheaper, more athletic at G, while adding three draft picks. If you do things like that over the long haul, you're making a killing. Of course, the player has to pan out.

I'm with you in that I think I would have risked Strange being there in the 2nd round, and I'd have drafted Chenal or Travis Jones, but I think at the end of the day Strange is going to be a terrific player for a long time for them, and yes, it was a position of need. Maybe not the #1 position of need, but a need nonetheless.
Guard was absolutely a need, I just think it's a position that's easier to fill in the later rounds, opposed to LB and CB where top tier physical talent seems to make more of a difference. Also, it's a need the team created willingly by not keeping Karras and trading away Mason. They could have easily gone into the season with guard being a solidified position for relatively little money and actively chose not to do so. That's my main gripe.
 

BaseballJones

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Guard was absolutely a need, I just think it's a position that's easier to fill in the later rounds, opposed to LB and CB where top tier physical talent seems to make more of a difference. Also, it's a need the team created willingly by not keeping Karras and trading away Mason. They could have easily gone into the season with guard being a solidified position for relatively little money and actively chose not to do so. That's my main gripe.
I get that too. But teams routinely move on from older, more expensive players, and replace them with younger, cheaper players. That's how you keep the train moving (presuming the new guy you add is good). So yeah they created their own need, but that happens with regularity in the NFL. Tennessee created a need at WR by trading AJ Brown, but they picked up a bunch of draft capital, then drafted AJ Brown's replacement at that position of need. And saved a lot of $$ in the process. It was a great move by them, presuming Burks turns out to be good. Smart organizations make these kinds of moves. The Patriots are a smart organization.
 

BaseballJones

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I just looked him up on pro-football-reference. I thought Mason was older than he is (he's just 28). Feels like he's been around FOREVER. I also didn't know his name is Shaquille Olajuwon Mason. What an absolutely kick-ass name.


EDIT: In 2022, Mason has a $7.3m cap hit, and Karras is a $5m cap hit. So that's $12.3m dedicated to the G position. Assuming a competent backup, the cost for a good replacement situation will be considerably less. Strange's cap hit should be about $2.2m, and maybe a good backup is similar. So about 1/3 of the cost, roughly speaking.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I just looked him up on pro-football-reference. I thought Mason was older than he is (he's just 28). Feels like he's been around FOREVER. I also didn't know his name is Shaquille Olajuwon Mason. What an absolutely kick-ass name.
Mason was the best Pats pick of the 2015 draft and he was taken in the fourth round. They also picked David Andrews off of the UDFA scrap pile that year. (Their first rounder, Malcolm Brown, was severely over-drafted, in hindsight.)
 

Ralphwiggum

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Everyone loved the Brown pick I think, which goes to show you picking the right guy at the right point in the draft doesn't necessarily translate into anything.

My attitude towards the draft is very close to "in BB we trust" which makes for boring message-boarding, but I can't get into the mindset of it being anything other than a massive crapshoot, and getting too worked up over "value" or whatever being a waste of time. YMMV obviously, and I generally stay out of the draft threads because I know people love it and we obviously have very knowledgeable posters who put a lot of time into it.
 

BaseballJones

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The goal of the draft is to improve your team by selecting the best players for you. What's the best player for you might not be the best player for someone else. On the whole, Bill Belichick has done this at a very, very high level for the Patriots. That many of his picks make little sense to us (or the pundits) is utterly irrelevant. He's good at his job; doesn't mean we can't criticize, doesn't mean we need to agree on every pick. It does mean that he knows what he's doing and he's liable to make a lot fewer mistakes than we would if we were put in charge of the draft.
 

tims4wins

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I didn't stay up last night, so trying to process everything this morning. I get pretty much every aspect of what they did.

The one thing I don't understand is the value relative to contract / salaries. Your first NFL contract is position-agnostic. The 29th pick will make more than the 30th pick, and less than the 28th pick, regardless of what position he plays. Guard is one of the lowest paid positions. CB is one of the highest paid positions (top 4 right? QB, WR, OT, CB?). So if you "hit" on a CB or WR or QB or OT you are gaining more surplus value than with a guard. That's my only issue with the pick.

Ultimately, if he is Logan Mankins, then we'll be thrilled. If he is Isaiah Wynn, we won't.
 

BigJimEd

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Also, it's a need the team created willingly by not keeping Karras and trading away Mason. They could have easily gone into the season with guard being a solidified position for relatively little money and actively chose not to do so.
I think this is clearly where the Pats FO disagrees. They saw a need at LG going into the offseason. As mentioned LG and RG are not interchangeable pieces.
They likely believe Karras is no more than an emergency starter and feel Onwenu is better suited for RG. Which leaves a need for LG.
Trading Mason makes sense in that situation. Clears room for Onwenu while picking up assets and clearing over $7M which is not nothing. While losing some depth on the OL.
 

ShaneTrot

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I am torn. I bet Strange will be an above average starter at guard and will be cheaper than Shaq and Karras over the next few years. My beef is the value of the position. Guards, RB, LB, C and safeties are positions that can be filled with cheaper veteran players. I think you should use premium picks to get players on cheaper deals at OT, CB, WR, DE, and obviously QB, if possible.
 

DJnVa

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This board goes through this ritual almost every year. Just copy and paste.
Wait til the Pats move back up to get one of the binkies everyone is crying about not getting and the net is they got an extra 4th rounder.
 

BaseballJones

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The recent ESPN article on draft success shows that BB makes his most hay in rounds 4-7. We know he's going to crush that part of the draft. And I think he'll do well tonight too.

I am confident that we'll look back on this draft and say it was a success.
 

Phil Plantier

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He's good at his job; doesn't mean we can't criticize, doesn't mean we need to agree on every pick. It does mean that he knows what he's doing and he's liable to make a lot fewer mistakes than we would if we were put in charge of the draft.
I like these two sentences a lot. I get the disappointment (or masochistic glee) that we get to reenact "Wait, who?" But to say that Belichick is too old or incompetent is... I don't know.
 

Jungleland

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What am I missing? Don't we draft 54, 85, and 94? It's just 2nd and 3rd round right?
Eek, you are correct. Not sure why I thought the 4th was tonight, too. I stand by 5 picks in the 2nd-4th being significant reason not to be upset about what needs have or haven't been addressed yet, though.
 

rodderick

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I think this is clearly where the Pats FO disagrees. They saw a need at LG going into the offseason. As mentioned LG and RG are not interchangeable pieces.
They likely believe Karras is no more than an emergency starter and feel Onwenu is better suited for RG. Which leaves a need for LG.
Trading Mason makes sense in that situation. Clears room for Onwenu while picking up assets and clearing over $7M which is not nothing. While losing some depth on the OL.
If they think Onwenu playing in his preferred guard spot + spending a first round pick + having about 7 million in cap space makes you better than having Mason and Onwenu and using that first rounder on a much more pressing defensive need I just disagree with their assessment. It's obvious they think that's the best way to build the team, it's what they did after all.

But then again, no one knows jack shit about guard play and we'll never have a clue whether Strange was worth his draft spot or not, unless he's either a horrific bust or an all time great at his position, so it's a moot point. He'll play, no one will know precisely how good he is or isn't and everyone in three years will say he's a good pick because he started games for them. I just don't value the position. It's one thing to take Mankins in 2005 coming off three Super Bowl wins in four years with a top 3 QB in place, they have a ton of holes now.
 

Shelterdog

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I didn't stay up last night, so trying to process everything this morning. I get pretty much every aspect of what they did.

The one thing I don't understand is the value relative to contract / salaries. Your first NFL contract is position-agnostic. The 29th pick will make more than the 30th pick, and less than the 28th pick, regardless of what position he plays. Guard is one of the lowest paid positions. CB is one of the highest paid positions (top 4 right? QB, WR, OT, CB?). So if you "hit" on a CB or WR or QB or OT you are gaining more surplus value than with a guard. That's my only issue with the pick.

Ultimately, if he is Logan Mankins, then we'll be thrilled. If he is Isaiah Wynn, we won't.
I'm not a huge believer in the surplus value theory. There might be a difference but it's not a huge one. At the high end top corners make more than the top guards--Thuney's contract was for 16 million per year, corners can hit 20 million--but the salaries aren't that different for average or good starters (e.g. Karras's contract is for 5 million a year--Jones is at 7 million and Mills at 6 million a year) and good guards are getting ten million plus a year in the free agent market now. If Strange is in fact a hit then the Pats will get tens of millions of dollars of surplus value over the life of his contract.
 

tims4wins

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I'm not a huge believer in the surplus value theory. There might be a difference but it's not a huge one. At the high end top corners make more than the top guards--Thuney's contract was for 16 million per year, corners can hit 20 million--but the salaries aren't that different for average or good starters (e.g. Karras's contract is for 5 million a year--Jones is at 7 million and Mills at 6 million a year) and good guards are getting ten million plus a year in the free agent market now. If Strange is in fact a hit then the Pats will get tens of millions of dollars of surplus value over the life of his contract.
That's fair, good point on Thuney vs. CB salaries and the Karras-Jones-Mills contracts.

I think my last sentence holds, but I do think it needs an amendment: there were six defensive players taken from 21-28. We're going to have to see how those guys do, but if any of them become studs, we'll probably regret the pick to a degree even if Strange is a stud.
 

Captaincoop

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I didn't stay up last night, so trying to process everything this morning. I get pretty much every aspect of what they did.

The one thing I don't understand is the value relative to contract / salaries. Your first NFL contract is position-agnostic. The 29th pick will make more than the 30th pick, and less than the 28th pick, regardless of what position he plays. Guard is one of the lowest paid positions. CB is one of the highest paid positions (top 4 right? QB, WR, OT, CB?). So if you "hit" on a CB or WR or QB or OT you are gaining more surplus value than with a guard. That's my only issue with the pick.

Ultimately, if he is Logan Mankins, then we'll be thrilled. If he is Isaiah Wynn, we won't.
Well, yeah, if he's a good player, fans will be happy. If he's an unreliable player made of glass, they won't.
 

Shelterdog

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That's fair, good point on Thuney vs. CB salaries and the Karras-Jones-Mills contracts.

I think my last sentence holds, but I do think it needs an amendment: there were six defensive players taken from 21-28. We're going to have to see how those guys do, but if any of them become studs, we'll probably regret the pick to a degree even if Strange is a stud.
Depending on how good they are, sure--the three players who went in front of Ray Lewis all went to the pro bowl but you can be damn sure those teams regretted their choice-- but unless one of them becomes a true cover corner or 12 sacks a year guy I wouldn't regret picking a OG over a merely very good CB, LB or Edge.
 

tims4wins

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Depending on how good they are, sure--the three players who went in front of Ray Lewis all went to the pro bowl but you can be damn sure those teams regretted their choice-- but unless one of them becomes a true cover corner or 12 sacks a year guy I wouldn't regret picking a OG over a merely very good CB, LB or Edge.
Given the state of the team I disagree, but I understand your point
 

Shelterdog

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Given the state of the team I disagree, but I understand your point
Rome wasn't built in a day and they have a lot of needs to fill--ideally sure get an edge or corner in round 1 and grab an IOL in round three but sometimes the board breaks a particular way or someone's a particularly good fit and I don't mind deviating from the plan a little in those circumstances.

I'll feel differently if they don't add a bunch of defensive talent today. The needs on that side of the ball are pretty significant, obivously.
 

tims4wins

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Rome wasn't built in a day and they have a lot of needs to fill--ideally sure get an edge or corner in round 1 and grab an IOL in round three but sometimes the board breaks a particular way or someone's a particularly good fit and I don't mind deviating from the plan a little in those circumstances.

I'll feel differently if they don't add a bunch of defensive talent today. The needs on that side of the ball are pretty significant, obivously.
I'm totally with you about not panicking. I like the player. I'm glad he's a Patriot. I understand pretty much all aspects of the pick.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm totally with you about not panicking. I like the player. I'm glad he's a Patriot. I understand pretty much all aspects of the pick.
If they have Cole rated as a day 1 starter with Pro Bowl upside and none of the available players at the positions you listed rated that highly, what do you want them to do? And I'm not sure why you even included QB on your list. It's not like they were ever going to take Willis.

Surplus value is great, if you can get it. But the counter to that is someone like N'Keal Harry.

Regardless of whether we or ESPN or Sean McVay like the pick, this is what Bill does.
 

tims4wins

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If they have Cole rated as a day 1 starter with Pro Bowl upside and none of the available players at the positions you listed rated that highly, what do you want them to do? And I'm not sure why you even included QB on your list. It's not like they were ever going to take Willis.

Surplus value is great, if you can get it. But the counter to that is someone like N'Keal Harry.

Regardless of whether we or ESPN or Sean McVay like the pick, this is what Bill does.
I was making a more general point about contract value for first round picks relative to market. Even if Strange is John Hannah, Mac Jones is going to provide more surplus value from a contract perspective relative to market due to the price of QBs.