2022 NBA Draft: The Life of Paolo

Auger34

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Ingram’s not bad. Porzingis is a horrible example considering his injury woes. Is Prince what you’re hoping for out of a top 3 pick? Okay, maybe you can find a few pretty good players over the last few decades, but the flameout percentage is still pretty damn high. I stand by my statement that I’’m not taking that risk if there are athletic bodied options available.

But also Id say that Chet looks more sickly than those examples.
@nighthob laid it out already but none of those examples are close to Chet in how skinny they are.

Shit I honestly think Bradley had more weight and a better frame.

If I am a GM, theres no way I am taking him ahead of Smith, Banchero or Ivey. I think there’s a pretty gigantic drop off after that, so I’d be comfortable taking him at 4 but definitely not higher than that. Way too much risk
 

Auger34

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The Chet discourse is going to be very entertaining once he starts playing in the league. He has a lot of different outcomes, to put them in categories:

1. Complete bust, can't do anything, out of the league in a few years.

2. Not a complete bust, can do a few limited things but injuries/ineffectiveness prevent him from being particularly good. Plays parts of 7 seasons.

3. Competent role player that flashes potential, but has solid career and plays for some good teams. Not a bust but a little disappointing given where he was drafted.

4. Very good NBA player, borderline all-star who makes a lot of money and can be the 3rd best player on a good team.

5. All-Star, one of the best frontcourt players in the NBA.

6. Perennial MVP candidate; changes the way certain players play; a million future prospects are optimistically compared to him.

I think anyone of those outcomes is on the table (I think he is too good of a shooter and shot blocker to be a complete bust, personally). I've kind of tied my boat to him being pretty good because I think some people are being way too dismissive of him as a propsect
Between 2 and 3 would be my guess with an outside chance of 4. I’d be completely stunned if he reached 5 or 6
 

JM3

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It's fine to say he has a fragile looking body... but as far as I could tell when I looked this up a couple months ago, Chet's like literally never missed any time for injury in HS or college.
 

chilidawg

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It's fine to say he has a fragile looking body... but as far as I could tell when I looked this up a couple months ago, Chet's like literally never missed any time for injury in HS or college.
He's such an interesting prospect because both what he can't do and what he can are pretty huge. I'm always more focused on what a guy can do.
 

radsoxfan

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I'm with HRB on Chet, I don't see it. No idea about the Marfans thing aside from the fact that he looks like he could have Marfans... but regardless, I don't see his game translating well. I see him getting pushed around/injury prone and unlikely to be able to put on enough good weight. I heard someone on the radio (Bilas?) say "baby Giannis" and someone else also mentioned Durant as comps. LOL

I like Mathurin and Banchero as the top 2 players in this draft 5 years from now.
 

djbayko

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It's fine to say he has a fragile looking body... but as far as I could tell when I looked this up a couple months ago, Chet's like literally never missed any time for injury in HS or college.
That's not the only concern about a player being rail thin in the NBA though, is it? To me, it's more about being tossed around the court and having your game thrown off by contact. Injury risk is certainly up there too, for sure, and that could always become a bigger problem once he's playing in a league of athletic freaks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looked back over the last 9 years, eliminates the two most recent to see how many busts were selected in the Top-10. Every year it’s 30-60% flat out busts.

2014 - Jabari, Exum, Stauskas & Vonleh
Injuries got the first two especially Parker. Guys who were available at 29…..Slo-Mo, Joe Harris, Dinwiddie, J.Grant, Jokic & Clarkson

2015 - (Beauty of a draft) Okafor, Hezonja, Cauley-Stein, Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky & Winslow
I loved WCS and hated Hezonja. Thought Okafor and Mudiay would be productive.

2016 - Bender, Dunn, Chriss & Maker
The Bucks at 10 choose Maker over Sabonis. My pets Siakam & Dejounte turned out well.

2017- Fultz, J.Jackson, Ntilikina & DSmith Jr.

2018 - Bagley & Knox
Not my finest moment as I liked both these guys a lot. Knicks choose Knox…..the next 3 were Bridges, Shai and Bridges lol.

2019 - Culver. Maybe Reddish and saving a spot on here for Zion.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'm with HRB on Chet, I don't see it. No idea about the Marfans thing aside from the fact that he looks like he could have Marfans... but regardless, I don't see his game translating well. I see him getting pushed around/injury prone and unlikely to be able to put on enough good weight. I heard someone on the radio (Bilas?) say "baby Giannis" and someone else also mentioned Durant as comps. LOL

I like Mathurin and Banchero as the top 2 players in this draft 5 years from now.
Port Cellar should consider itself lucky the Celtics are not in position to draft Mathurin as game threads would be endlessly interrupted by me constantly making Patrick O'Brian references.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Because Woj doubled down on his reporting of 1-3. Last night’s movement was definitely due to a rumor put out there that someone had info on Paolo, and it was exacerbated by a report from a betting exchange.
This betting market has been all over the place with its liquidity being that of a fraction of a random Iceland soccer match while being all rumor/information based. If Jabari does go #1 it is a very strange way to bring “your guy” into the organization.
 

djbayko

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This betting market has been all over the place with its liquidity being that of a fraction of a random Iceland soccer match while being all rumor/information based. If Jabari does go #1 it is a very strange way to bring “your guy” into the organization.
The liquidity is large enough. The odds for this sort of thing move on information, not on thin air. The information may not be good but bettors are very reactive to rumors in cases like this where there is one correct answer rather than a range of possible outcomes in game spreads and totals. You can see a clear association between the odds movement and reports. Woj, twice now, briefly interrupted by sports bettor shenanigans last night. And if Woj or one of his peers reports something different in the Top 3 later today, you’ll see another wild swing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The liquidity is large enough. The odds for this sort of thing move on information, not on thin air. The information may not be good but bettors are very reactive to rumors in cases like this where there is one correct answer rather than a range of possible outcomes in game spreads and totals. You can see a clear association between the odds movement and reports. Woj, twice now, briefly interrupted by sports bettor shenanigans last night. And of Woj or one of his peers reports something different in the Top 3 later today, you’ll see another wild swing.
Oh absolutely. My point was that the dramatic swings are more volatile than the NFL draft which is also information based due to the liquidity issue. As of two days ago there wasn’t a shop in Vegas who was hanging anything more than “1st player selected” at tiny limits. My matchups were capped at $50 or $100 on all of my PPH sites which in some cases were 5% of my max allowed wager.
 

djbayko

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Oh absolutely. My point was that the dramatic swings are more volatile than the NFL draft which is also information based due to the liquidity issue. As of two days ago there wasn’t a shop in Vegas who was hanging anything more than “1st player selected” at tiny limits. My matchups were capped at $50 or $100 on all of my PPH sites which in some cases were 5% of my max allowed wager.
I can maybe agree with that. I was just pushing back on the idea that last night’s movement was based on information about Paolo’s Orlando workout, which is information which has been out there since before Smith became the big favorite. I was trying to warn people that there were bettor shenanigan happening last night and to not necessarily put any weight into the movement. You often see these types of games occur at the 11th hour in markets like this, and I had it on good authority from someone in the know that this was happening.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Looked back over the last 9 years, eliminates the two most recent to see how many busts were selected in the Top-10. Every year it’s 30-60% flat out busts.

2014 - Jabari, Exum, Stauskas & Vonleh
Injuries got the first two especially Parker. Guys who were available at 29…..Slo-Mo, Joe Harris, Dinwiddie, J.Grant, Jokic & Clarkson

2015 - (Beauty of a draft) Okafor, Hezonja, Cauley-Stein, Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky & Winslow
I loved WCS and hated Hezonja. Thought Okafor and Mudiay would be productive.

2016 - Bender, Dunn, Chriss & Maker
The Bucks at 10 choose Maker over Sabonis. My pets Siakam & Dejounte turned out well.

2017- Fultz, J.Jackson, Ntilikina & DSmith Jr.

2018 - Bagley & Knox
Not my finest moment as I liked both these guys a lot. Knicks choose Knox…..the next 3 were Bridges, Shai and Bridges lol.

2019 - Culver. Maybe Reddish and saving a spot on here for Zion.
You weren't the only guy fooled by Knox. I was high on him too, until the Knicks picked him. Then I assumed that they picked wrong and/or would fuck up his development.

So many busts. Getting your top 10 pick right is so important. In this draft, it's probably more about getting your top-3 pick right...or just not blowing it altogether.

I'm still stuck on Ivey as being the only sure 10 year starter in this draft. Bunch of high ceiling, low floor guys. Chet has maybe the widest error bars that I've ever seen in hoop.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I can maybe agree with that. I was just pushing back on the idea that last night’s movement was based on information about Paolo’s Orlando workout, which is information which has been out there since before Smith became the big favorite. I was trying to warn people that there were bettor shenanigan happening last night and to not necessarily put any weight into the movement. You often see these types of games occur at the 11th hour in markets like this, and I had it on good authority from someone in the know that this was happening.
Yes I agree on the shenanigans. The up and down movement of the past two days seemed like a numbers room in Chicago from the ‘60s.
 

128

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So many busts. Getting your top 10 pick right is so important. In this draft, it's probably more about getting your top-3 pick right...or just not blowing it altogether.
This makes Ainge's picks of Tatum, Brown and Smart that much more impressive.
 

benhogan

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You weren't the only guy fooled by Knox. I was high on him too, until the Knicks picked him. Then I assumed that they picked wrong and/or would fuck up his development.

So many busts. Getting your top 10 pick right is so important. In this draft, it's probably more about getting your top-3 pick right...or just not blowing it altogether.

I'm still stuck on Ivey as being the only sure 10 year starter in this draft. Bunch of high ceiling, low floor guys. Chet has maybe the widest error bars that I've ever seen in hoop.
Chet is getting a GM fired. Either passing on him or selecting him is costing someone a job
 

Jimbodandy

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This makes Ainge's picks of Tatum, Brown and Smart that much more impressive.
Agreed. Screwing up high picks is bad business, but nailing three in a row is great business and pretty unusual.

Chet is getting a GM fired. Either passing on him or selecting him is costing someone a job
Maybe. I think that he's really a perfect OKC pick in that they have so many children playing there that expectations are pretty damn low. They've also drafted pretty well. Imo, if they pass on him, that will say a lot. It's not like there's a clear "how could you pass on that guy" guy in this draft. But you could be right...people retcon this shit constantly. If the Murray kid or Ivey makes an all star game in year 2, everyone in the hoop twittersphere will claim that they saw it coming a mile away (folks here will too), and that could bite a GM in the ass.
 

Kliq

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Agreed. Screwing up high picks is bad business, but nailing three in a row is great business and pretty unusual.



Maybe. I think that he's really a perfect OKC pick in that they have so many children playing there that expectations are pretty damn low. They've also drafted pretty well. Imo, if they pass on him, that will say a lot. It's not like there's a clear "how could you pass on that guy" guy in this draft. But you could be right...people retcon this shit constantly. If the Murray kid or Ivey makes an all star game in year 2, everyone in the hoop twittersphere will claim that they saw it coming a mile away (folks here will too), and that could bite a GM in the ass.
The logic I've heard for OKC taking Chet also hinges on the belief that the future of their backcourt is SGA and Giddey, and getting a big that can shoot and defend is more useful than getting another guard that needs the ball to be good. I don't know if bad teams should really draft for fit as opposed to taking the best player available, but it makes sense that OKC would see Chet as a much better fit with their expected young core than a player like Ivey.
 

Jimbodandy

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The logic I've heard for OKC taking Chet also hinges on the belief that the future of their backcourt is SGA and Giddey, and getting a big that can shoot and defend is more useful than getting another guard that needs the ball to be good. I don't know if bad teams should really draft for fit as opposed to taking the best player available, but it makes sense that OKC would see Chet as a much better fit with their expected young core than a player like Ivey.
That makes sense. May as well draft a forward. Not like 2 vs. 3 vs. 4 makes sense for a rebuilding team, but having a team of all guards isn't ideal.

In general I think that they're pretty aggressive in the picks. Giddey was a ballsy pick. Chet's a home run cut.
 

ManicCompression

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The logic I've heard for OKC taking Chet also hinges on the belief that the future of their backcourt is SGA and Giddey, and getting a big that can shoot and defend is more useful than getting another guard that needs the ball to be good. I don't know if bad teams should really draft for fit as opposed to taking the best player available, but it makes sense that OKC would see Chet as a much better fit with their expected young core than a player like Ivey.
I think they also want to suck hard for Wembanyama next year, so taking the guy with the biggest gap between his current state and his upside will help them to that end.
 

Kliq

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I think they also want to suck hard for Wembanyama next year, so taking the guy with the biggest gap between his current state and his upside will help them to that end.
Chet, Wembanyama and Poku, all together on the court at once.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Kings haven’t worked out Ivey or even had contact with him? Thats weird.
They are supposedly all-in on Murray so it would all be moot if that is their position. Frankly, I don’t understand why Ivey isn’t talked about much in the Top-3 but of course this stems with me being so confused on the Chet love.
 

BigMike

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The logic I've heard for OKC taking Chet also hinges on the belief that the future of their backcourt is SGA and Giddey, and getting a big that can shoot and defend is more useful than getting another guard that needs the ball to be good. I don't know if bad teams should really draft for fit as opposed to taking the best player available, but it makes sense that OKC would see Chet as a much better fit with their expected young core than a player like Ivey.
Somewhat unclear where Giddy's future is. I've seen people talk of him being a 4. Regardless though his future will have the ball in his hands a good bit of the time.

In terms of the pick at #2 if it is Chet over Paolo, I think that is a ballsy choice. I fully expect Paolo to be a somewhat flawed player at the NBA level, but may be more surprised if he doesn't average 18 pts and 3+ assists for much of the next decade. He may be a guy who wants/needs the ball more than OKC wants. And his defense at this point is something that maybe develops.

Chet is a gamble. But his defensive instincts are exceptional. He is not just tall. Obviously medical issues, we know nothing, I am betting if OKC takes him, they are confident there. Weight might always be an issue, and it may keep him from being a star, but he does so many things well that , I tend to expect him to top out as a guy who averages 15pts 10 reb 3-4 blocks. But there is huge risk of course

Ivey I just don't know. Sounds like maybe OKC really likes him, but I see as a terrible fit. I see more Jordan Poole than Ja Morant
 

Swedgin

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The Kings haven’t worked out Ivey or even had contact with him? Thats weird.
Not really. Takes two to tango and the reporting is that Ivey wants nothing to do with the Kangz.

ETA: It is also worth noting that they just traded away Haliburton because (they concluded) Fox could not co-exist with him. Ivey is more ball dominant and a poorer shooter than Hali.

The reporting has been that they are looking to move the pick.
 
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Kliq

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Speaking of Wembanyama, Mike Schmitz is just drooling all over him in his 2023 Mock Draft, what a write up!

Wembanyama is the true prize of this class and the best prospect in the world regardless of age. I've long considered the 18-year-old French big man the best prospect I've personally ever evaluated, and at 7-3 with a 7-9 wingspan and 9-7 standing reach, he's starting to turn that sky-high potential into real production for the ASVEL team in France.

After missing some time because of injury earlier in the year, Wembanyama has hit stride over the past 10 games (EuroLeague and France Pro A), averaging 13.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 21.6 minutes while shooting 63% from 2 and 50% from 3. Even more impressive than the production has been how Wembanyama is getting his numbers. ASVEL is springing him free with off-ball screens like a wing, unleashing his feathery shooting touch. With his handle and footwork on display, he has been looking like a bigger Kevin Durant at times by splashing self-created step-back 3s. He's starting to add a more advanced midpost package, fading into back-shoulder turnarounds with incredible ease. He's getting to lobs no other player on the planet could even think of. On top of that, he's protecting the rim at an elite level -- well ahead of Rudy Gobert at the same stage -- while also showing the ability to step out and switch onto guards unlike any player we've previously seen at his height. Wembanyama is the only player in EuroLeague history to record a block percentage over 12%.

He still has his lapses on the defensive glass, can get a little overzealous offensively and with a lean frame has some questions to answer about his durability. But Wembanyama is a one-of-one-caliber prospect, a franchise changer and a future NBA MVP so long as he can stay healthy. He's the exact type of superstar that could quickly turn the Thunder into a playoff team and future contender the moment he puts on that Oklahoma City hat. -- Schmitz
 

BigSoxFan

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Speaking of Wembanyama, Mike Schmitz is just drooling all over him in his 2023 Mock Draft, what a write up!
I haven’t seen such effusive praise since Chad Ford wet himself over Pavel Podkolzin
 

Kliq

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I haven’t seen such effusive praise since Chad Ford wet himself over Pavel Podkolzin
There was a lot of wild Darko stuff out there as well. People are generally much better about scouting European talent than they once were, so I find the praise for Wembanyama more convincing. Schmitz is one of the most reliable guys in the business (and now he works for the Kings) so he really carries a lot of weight when he talks about a player like that.
 

BigSoxFan

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There was a lot of wild Darko stuff out there as well. People are generally much better about scouting European talent than they once were, so I find the praise for Wembanyama more convincing. Schmitz is one of the most reliable guys in the business (and now he works for the Kings) so he really carries a lot of weight when he talks about a player like that.
Yeah, definitely not critiquing. I really like Schmitz and love making fun of Chad Ford even more. Wembanyama is definitely an intriguing talent.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not related to the 35th pick or likely any pick. An old buddy of mine who used to coach Cole Swider and knows I’m a fanatic reached out this afternoon. He told me that the Lakers brought Swider in for two workouts (as did the Bucks) but spoke to him today saying they would be interested in signing him as a UFA and to be ready to go to Vegas next week for practice if he accepts.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Could have had Steph ‘09 (Tyreke Evans), Giannis ‘13 (McLemore), Jokic ‘14 (Stauskas), Booker ‘15 (WCS), Siakam ‘16 (Papagiannis), Adebayo ‘17 (Fox), and/or Sengun ‘21 (Mitchell), too.

Halliburton ‘20 was their one really good pick in 15 years — perfect modern day NBA player and ultra high character guy who amazingly loved playing in Sactown — and they shipped him off while he was still on his rookie contract. (Edit: Boogie in ‘10 was okay, but Paul George would have been better).

16 straight seasons missing the playoffs, and somehow the only thing they have to show for it are two small guards who can’t shoot.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Could have had Steph ‘09 (Tyreke Evans), Giannis ‘13 (McLemore), Jokic ‘14 (Stauskas), Booker ‘15 (WCS), Siakam ‘16 (Papagiannis), Adebayo ‘17 (Fox), and/or Sengun ‘21 (Mitchell), too.

Halliburton ‘20 was their one really good pick in 15 years — perfect modern day NBA player and ultra high character guy who amazingly loved playing in Sactown — and they shipped him off while he was still on his rookie contract. (Edit: Boogie in ‘10 was okay, but Paul George would have been better).

16 straight seasons missing the playoffs, and somehow the only thing they have to show for it are two small guards who can’t shoot.
lot of those aren't really good ones though, like Giannis or Jokic. The point of the tweet isn't "they didn't take the best player" it's "they took a bust where the most similarly ranked player by the league was a superstar.

Of course.... some of the guys probably busted because they went to DAC.
 

Sam Ray Not

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lot of those aren't really good ones though, like Giannis or Jokic. The point of the tweet isn't "they didn't take the best player" it's "they took a bust where the most similarly ranked player by the league was a superstar.

Of course.... some of the guys probably busted because they went to DAC.
That’s fair — lots of teams whiffed on Giannis and Jokic. But as long as we’re being fair, I don’t think anyone thought Thomas Robinson over Lillard was an egregiously bad pick at the time; and Klay is more just star than “superstar” (Kawhi would probably be a better example for 2011, but they seem to be set on the “one pick before” premise).

In any case, Bagley over Luka should be in a category of its own. Pathetic, long-suffering franchise in need of a guy with “franchise superstar” upside more than anything else has the prospect with most superstar upside in years fall right into their laps … and passes on him for a garden-variety low-ceiling athletic big. Just mind-boggling, from the moment the pick was made.

But yeah … some of their whiffs may be as much a function of their piss-poor development staff and team culture as bad drafting per se.
 

JCizzle

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Woj is just fucking around with Vegas. Just announced that Paolo is still very much in discussions to go #1.

Edit- also just said Kyrie might take one of the Lakers exceptions??? What? There's pay cuts...then there's that.
 

nattysez

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Woj is just fucking around with Vegas. Just announced that Paolo is still very much in discussions to go #1.

Edit- also just said Kyrie might take one of the Lakers exceptions??? What? There's pay cuts...then there's that.
If the Magic are actually still debating their pick at this point...yikes. I can't imagine that's the case.
 

benhogan

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If the Magic are actually still debating their pick at this point...yikes. I can't imagine that's the case.
You never know when brain-dead NBA executives will announce their love affair with #1 and #2 in a draft

Mucho gracias to the Collar and Magic