2022 NBA Draft: The Life of Paolo

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
I'm surprised nobody has started this yet.

Heading into the college basketball season, there appears to be two top contenders for the #1 pick.

The consensus #1 seemed to be Chet Holmgren, who was the #1 rated recruit coming out of high school and is now at Gonzaga. There really hasn't been a player like him, and his measurables kind of tell the story: 7'1" and generously listed 195lbs. Holmgren is either the future of basketball, or a bust waiting to happen. He plays mostly on the wing, sharing the court with Drew Timme at Gonzaga will ensure that, and is an excellent overall player skill-wise for his size. Good shooter with good form and quick release; can handle the ball extremely well for his size, can pass. Soft touch around the rim even though dunking is so easy for him. Has the potential to be the best defensive player in the NBA one day due to his length, agility and timing. Can switch out on the perimeter and also protect the rim; and isn't afraid to challenge guys and get dunked on. So far he has been pretty blah at Gonzaga, but that can happen as a freshmen playing on a loaded team. To me the skills and how he adjusts to the increased physicality of the college game is more interesting than what his counting stats look like.

The other contender, and perhaps he has leaped past Chet already thanks to a great start to his college career at Duke, is Paolo Banchero. Banchero is drawing early comparisons to Carmelo, but Banchero is bigger than Carmelo and a superior athlete. He reminds me a bit of Michael Porter Jr. without the injury concerns, but bulkier at 6'10 and 250lbs. Banchero has always looked like he was playing with people younger than him, just a man amongst boys with a refined game that breaks down defenses and makes difficult shots. He's a great athlete as well and can score at all three levels. Concerns would be he turns the ball over a lot, and he did recently get jammed up in a DUI issue (he wasn't drunk driving but was in a car with someone who was) but other than that, he seems like a safer #1 pick than Holmgren, with Holmgren offering perhaps a higher ceiling.

There are plenty of other players; Jabari Smith, Jalen Duran, two Jaden's (Hardey and Ivey), Caleb Houston and many others who I am sure will be discussed a lot between now and next June.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
My early prediction:

If there is a GM who selects Holmgren over Banchero, that GM will be fired within 24 months of the draft. I think the “Holmgren is the consensus #1 pick” train is derailed by Thanksgiving and never put back in service
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
27,973
I worry about Holmgren physically---there is always a 'first' but guys with that little strength uniformly have some challenges, don't they? Closest success is Durant, and he was three inches shorter and 20 pounds heavier at the draft combine.

I haven't watched Banchero enough---I take it HRB likes his game?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
I worry about Holmgren physically---there is always a 'first' but guys with that little strength uniformly have some challenges, don't they? Closest success is Durant, and he was three inches shorter and 20 pounds heavier at the draft combine.

I haven't watched Banchero enough---I take it HRB likes his game?
Love his game. He’s a natural for the league.
 

SoxJox

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2003
4,940
Rock > SoxJox < Hard Place
Of course, while not driving, Banchero will have to put Sunday's pesky arrest behind him for aiding and abetting DWI. The DWI was levied against teammate Michael Savarino (Coach K's grandson), who was driving Banchero's car. Ranchero was in the back seat, but was still charged in accordance with NC law.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
Of course, while not driving, Banchero will have to put Sunday's pesky arrest behind him for aiding and abetting DWI. The DWI was levied against teammate Michael Savarino (Coach K's grandson), who was driving Banchero's car. Ranchero was in the back seat, but was still charged in accordance with NC law.
I lived in NC for 17 years. They had some wacky laws on the books back then. Apparently they still do.
 

Eagle3

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2004
441
Best case scenario Banchero was drinking underage (like every college kid, no big deal), but, he then gave the keys to his car to another underage kid who admitted to doing "several shots" beforehand. That's the official story and that's where aiding and abetting comes into play in NC. Sounds like Savarino might be taking one for the team. I wouldnt be shocked if there's more to the story.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
7,433
around the way
I'm surprised nobody has started this yet.

Heading into the college basketball season, there appears to be two top contenders for the #1 pick.

The consensus #1 seemed to be Chet Holmgren, who was the #1 rated recruit coming out of high school and is now at Gonzaga. There really hasn't been a player like him, and his measurables kind of tell the story: 7'1" and generously listed 195lbs. Holmgren is either the future of basketball, or a bust waiting to happen. He plays mostly on the wing, sharing the court with Drew Timme at Gonzaga will ensure that, and is an excellent overall player skill-wise for his size. Good shooter with good form and quick release; can handle the ball extremely well for his size, can pass. Soft touch around the rim even though dunking is so easy for him. Has the potential to be the best defensive player in the NBA one day due to his length, agility and timing. Can switch out on the perimeter and also protect the rim; and isn't afraid to challenge guys and get dunked on. So far he has been pretty blah at Gonzaga, but that can happen as a freshmen playing on a loaded team. To me the skills and how he adjusts to the increased physicality of the college game is more interesting than what his counting stats look like.

The other contender, and perhaps he has leaped past Chet already thanks to a great start to his college career at Duke, is Paolo Banchero. Banchero is drawing early comparisons to Carmelo, but Banchero is bigger than Carmelo and a superior athlete. He reminds me a bit of Michael Porter Jr. without the injury concerns, but bulkier at 6'10 and 250lbs. Banchero has always looked like he was playing with people younger than him, just a man amongst boys with a refined game that breaks down defenses and makes difficult shots. He's a great athlete as well and can score at all three levels. Concerns would be he turns the ball over a lot, and he did recently get jammed up in a DUI issue (he wasn't drunk driving but was in a car with someone who was) but other than that, he seems like a safer #1 pick than Holmgren, with Holmgren offering perhaps a higher ceiling.

There are plenty of other players; Jabari Smith, Jalen Duran, two Jaden's (Hardey and Ivey), Caleb Houston and many others who I am sure will be discussed a lot between now and next June.
Everyone has probably seen Chet at this point, and the jury is out.

The little bit I've seen of Ivey, I liked his game a lot. Not sure where he lands, but he has skills and a scorer's touch. Shooting is TBD, but his FT is fine both years. I think that he's a player.

Haven't seen the others much.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
Everyone has probably seen Chet at this point, and the jury is out.

The little bit I've seen of Ivey, I liked his game a lot. Not sure where he lands, but he has skills and a scorer's touch. Shooting is TBD, but his FT is fine both years. I think that he's a player.

Haven't seen the others much.
Ivey was only a four star recruit and was good but not other-wordly as a freshmen. He really showed out at the U-19 World Championships where he looked like young Westbrook/Rose with hist explosiveness and finishing ability. That raised his stock a ton and we will see a lot of this year on a good Purdue team.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
7,433
around the way
Ivey was only a four star recruit and was good but not other-wordly as a freshmen. He really showed out at the U-19 World Championships where he looked like young Westbrook/Rose with hist explosiveness and finishing ability. That raised his stock a ton and we will see a lot of this year on a good Purdue team.
That's where I saw him. Son and I were dropping Russ's name during those games.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
Best case scenario Banchero was drinking underage (like every college kid, no big deal), but, he then gave the keys to his car to another underage kid who admitted to doing "several shots" beforehand. That's the official story and that's where aiding and abetting comes into play in NC. Sounds like Savarino might be taking one for the team. I wouldnt be shocked if there's more to the story.
I mean K’s nephew blew a .08 so it wasn’t like he was handing the keys over to a stumbling fool. He was trying to do the right thing.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,377
I have no idea what to make of Holmgren. I fully agree with the OP that his listed weight is more like a goal than a reality. Seriously, he's so skinny that he looks like he should be making commercials with Sally Struthers. I like the game, but he's got to be 40-45 lbs from being too skinny to play in the NBA. If he were 240 I'd take him first without a thought. But, jaysus, at his size Marcus might accidentally break him the first time they play Boston.

Banchero I simply looooove. I kind of wish that Boston had one of those lottery picks to dream on so that I could dream about Banchero apprenticing under Horford. He's head & shoulders above the competition for me.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
6,686
Palo Alto
In his one game against good competition so far Holmgren put up 2 points and 5 rebounds in 23 minutes. He put up 3 shots and had 4 fouls. That is not really inspiring for a guy who is supposed to be the #1 pick.
 

wibi

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,286
In his one game against good competition so far Holmgren put up 2 points and 5 rebounds in 23 minutes. He put up 3 shots and had 4 fouls. That is not really inspiring for a guy who is supposed to be the #1 pick.
LOL ... talk about missing the forest for the trees
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,767
Holmgren is playing #2 UCLA right now, Gonzaga is blowing the Bruins out of the building, but you can see some of the things that make Holmgren a prospect despite his insanely skinny frame. Has 4 blocks and UCLA is terrified to go to the rim with him in, he hedges pretty well too, 11 points on 5/6 from the floor (1/2 from 3), 6 rebounds in 18 minutes.

On the negative side, he has 3 turnovers and no assists.

Edit- LOL
View: https://twitter.com/ChaseHughesNBCS/status/1463363466392133632
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
Holmgren is playing #2 UCLA right now, Gonzaga is blowing the Bruins out of the building, but you can see some of the things that make Holmgren a prospect despite his insanely skinny frame. Has 4 blocks and UCLA is terrified to go to the rim with him in, he hedges pretty well too, 11 points on 5/6 from the floor (1/2 from 3), 6 rebounds in 18 minutes.

On the negative side, he has 3 turnovers and no assists.

Edit- LOL
View: https://twitter.com/ChaseHughesNBCS/status/1463363466392133632
Yeah; the thing with Chet is he is playing on a super loaded team that isn't going to rely on him to score, so he is going to have to show out on the defensive end and more flashes on offense. I doubt he puts up huge counting stats (they'll also be in a lot of blow outs) but you have to watch the games to see all the potential.
 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
567
Is Holmgren that much skinnier than Porzingis was? KP looked really frail pre-NBA, and subsequently got fairly jacked.
KP was official 220 at the draft and added another 10-15 by the start of the season. Durant was around 215 at Texas. Mobley is 215. Chet is reportedly 195, having added a whopping five pounds in the last year or so.
 

Bread of Yaz

lurker
Mar 12, 2019
162
Holmgren is playing #2 UCLA right now, Gonzaga is blowing the Bruins out of the building, but you can see some of the things that make Holmgren a prospect despite his insanely skinny frame. Has 4 blocks and UCLA is terrified to go to the rim with him in, he hedges pretty well too, 11 points on 5/6 from the floor (1/2 from 3), 6 rebounds in 18 minutes.

On the negative side, he has 3 turnovers and no assists.

Edit- LOL
View: https://twitter.com/ChaseHughesNBCS/status/1463363466392133632
Dude guarding Holmgren on that play has no idea what defense means. I could have blown by him.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,152
Toscana via Kyiv
KP was official 220 at the draft and added another 10-15 by the start of the season. Durant was around 215 at Texas. Mobley is 215. Chet is reportedly 195, having added a whopping five pounds in the last year or so.
He's definitely skinnier than those guys, but adding 10 or so pounds by the time of the draft would have him pretty close.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
The thing with Chet is that it's possible he doesn't play the 5 in the NBA (despite his height). In college, he is used more as a wing and has the versatility to thrive in that role, where he can dribble, shoot and pass, while also exploiting big mismatches on the block. If he has to guard like, Embiid or Jokic it would be problematic given how much weight he is giving up, but I see him potentially more like Giannis on the defensive end; a guy guarding wings but coming over as an ultra-help defender thanks to absurd length and timing.

He obviously needs to get stronger; almost every college player does to succeed in the NBA, but I don't really see him as a prototypical big, so it's less of a concern. He's really an incredibly interesting prospect, I can't recall someone that could be so polarizing.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,767
He's obviously more skilled than Poku, but Poku is a good physical comp (Holmgren is actually slightly heavier than Poku), OKC hasn't played Poku at the 5.

Edit- BTW OKC getting #1 and pairing two 7 ft guys under 200 pounds on the court would be hillarious.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
He's obviously more skilled than Poku, but Poku is a good physical comp (Holmgren is actually slightly heavier than Poku), OKC hasn't played Poku at the 5.

Edit- BTW OKC getting #1 and pairing two 7 ft guys under 200 pounds on the court would be hillarious.
Poku and Bol Bol would be the two best physical comps, which is not particularly encouraging. The way Cleveland has used Mobley as basically a 3 is probably a better comp.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
The thing with Chet is that it's possible he doesn't play the 5 in the NBA (despite his height). In college, he is used more as a wing and has the versatility to thrive in that role, where he can dribble, shoot and pass, while also exploiting big mismatches on the block. If he has to guard like, Embiid or Jokic it would be problematic given how much weight he is giving up, but I see him potentially more like Giannis on the defensive end; a guy guarding wings but coming over as an ultra-help defender thanks to absurd length and timing.

He obviously needs to get stronger; almost every college player does to succeed in the NBA, but I don't really see him as a prototypical big, so it's less of a concern. He's really an incredibly interesting prospect, I can't recall someone that could be so polarizing.
He’s very similar positionally-wise to Porzingis in that theoretically you’d want to pair him with a physical frontcourt partner to handle the interior grunt work like in NY when he nearly always played with either Kanter or Kyle O’Quinn. Maybe that isn’t as necessary as the Drummonds, Dwight Howard’s, etc etc are no longer starting and playing major minutes but you’d still want guys like that around to protect him from certain matchups, styles, etc
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
Poku and Bol Bol would be the two best physical comps, which is not particularly encouraging. The way Cleveland has used Mobley as basically a 3 is probably a better comp.
Yes but unlike Bol, this kid has some gifted ball skills and physical skills aside from being a beanpole like Bol. I’m not sold on him yet by any means but seeing what this player looks like in March compared to November will shed us some light.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,767
Poku and Bol Bol would be the two best physical comps, which is not particularly encouraging. The way Cleveland has used Mobley as basically a 3 is probably a better comp.
yeah, but it kinda falls apart because he clearly is way better at basketball than those guys were. Outlier players are harder to comp because there are so few guys with that body that getting requisite skill comps are hard.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
Banchero vs Holmgren right now on ESPN. Bacnhero looks incredible.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
This guy Marc Williams for Duke is an incredible shot blocker. Just got totally hosed on a foul call on what was an awesome rejection of a Timme dunk attempt.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
This guy Marc Williams for Duke is an incredible shot blocker. Just got totally hosed on a foul call on what was an awesome rejection of a Timme dunk attempt.
He was productive for them last year in a limited role but looks like he may be making a sophomore leap. He has all the physical skills to make it at the next level.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
3,964
Cultural hub of the universe
Holmgren might be the least effective screener ever. Interesting that Mike Schmitz was so enamored with him.

Lots of draftable guys in this game, Keels, Moore, Williams, Strowther, Nembhard in addition to the big names. Fun basketball.
 

BigMike

Dope
Dope
Sep 26, 2000
22,762
there is a lot to like in Holmgren, but he is just not strong enough. Ball gets taken from his hands to easily. He got fouled on a play where the Duke player competing for a rebound just rag dolled him. Tossed him away with one hand, like he wasn't even there

Williams looks like a man playing with Children
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
11,701
there is a lot to like in Holmgren, but he is just not strong enough. Ball gets taken from his hands to easily. He got fouled on a play where the Duke player competing for a rebound just rag dolled him. Tossed him away with one hand, like he wasn't even there

Williams looks like a man playing with Children
Yeah Holmgren has a LONG way to go before he could compete in the NBA.

Unique skillset for his size, no doubt. Tough guy to project.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,675
Hated that play out of the timeout with Timme trying to draw the foul.

Too bad Banchero was slowed by cramps in the second half, but a fun game anyway.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
11,701
my sarcasm meter must be off

13 games in... you're joking, right?
Joking? No. Exaggerating? Yes.

Cade has looked bad, not a good start, certainly at least a moderate disappointment so far. No chance in a re-draft he is the #1 pick at the moment. Probably not top 3.

Small sample size doesn't mean it's meaningless.
 

tbb345

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
4,067
This guy Marc Williams for Duke is an incredible shot blocker. Just got totally hosed on a foul call on what was an awesome rejection of a Timme dunk attempt.
Incredible shot blocker, incredible motor and looks to be a very good athlete. He reminds me a lot of Clint Capela.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
24,913
Yeah Holmgren has a LONG way to go before he could compete in the NBA.

Unique skillset for his size, no doubt. Tough guy to project.
To me, you’ve got to look at Porzingis at the same stage of their career and see how Holmgren progresses from there. Interesting player but not sure he’ll ever be a teams primary option and that is obv what you’re looking for with the first pick or two.

Cunningham actually had a 4-5 game stretch last week where he looked like a legit All-Star then had a couple of duds. He hasn’t adjusted to the speed/length which is affecting his shooting but overall his floor game has been really good.
 

BigMike

Dope
Dope
Sep 26, 2000
22,762
Joking? No. Exaggerating? Yes.

Cade has looked bad, not a good start, certainly at least a moderate disappointment so far. No chance in a re-draft he is the #1 pick at the moment. Probably not top 3.

Small sample size doesn't mean it's meaningless.
Barnes and Mobley right now are the top 2 rookies, but would they go ahead of Cade in a redraft? Not sure. In terms of #3, Wagner is probably that guy in terms of best starts, and I don't believe for a second he goes ahead of Cade in a redraft. I love Giddy, and he has been solid, but Cade has already shown way more upside. Cade may or may not be the best player in this draft, but I have little doubt he is going to be a 20 7 7 guy in a year or two. Obviously the real question is will his efficiency improve, and I am sure it will, but will he get it up to say mid 40% for overall?
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
6,686
Palo Alto
Joking? No. Exaggerating? Yes.

Cade has looked bad, not a good start, certainly at least a moderate disappointment so far. No chance in a re-draft he is the #1 pick at the moment. Probably not top 3.

Small sample size doesn't mean it's meaningless.
Between this and Romeo I feel like you update your priors a tad too quickly. No chance they'd re-draft him #1? I am pretty confident they would still take him #1 in a redraft. You think the Pistons would take Mobley?

Do you think the Timberwolves were ready to bail on Edwards last year after his bad start?
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
11,701
Between this and Romeo I feel like you update your priors a tad too quickly. No chance they'd re-draft him #1? I am pretty confident they would still take him #1 in a redraft. You think the Pistons would take Mobley?

Do you think the Timberwolves were ready to bail on Edwards last year after his bad start?
Fair critique, though if anything I think people are too slow to react to feedback info from NBA level competition.

And yes, the the Pistons would/should take Mobley in a re-draft. I never thought Cade was "bad" just felt like a generic top 5 guy rather than an automatic #1 guy to me.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
11,701
Barnes and Mobley right now are the top 2 rookies, but would they go ahead of Cade in a redraft? Not sure. In terms of #3, Wagner is probably that guy in terms of best starts, and I don't believe for a second he goes ahead of Cade in a redraft. I love Giddy, and he has been solid, but Cade has already shown way more upside. Cade may or may not be the best player in this draft, but I have little doubt he is going to be a 20 7 7 guy in a year or two. Obviously the real question is will his efficiency improve, and I am sure it will, but will he get it up to say mid 40% for overall?
Personally I'd put Cade #3/4 right now in a re-draft. Mobley and Barnes have shown more and would take them top 2. I admit I may be irrationally giddy (pun intended) on Giddey, but I like him ahead of Cade.

This is partially because I never understood the Cade love, partially because I think people underestimate the importance of the first 10-15 games of NBA competition. The error bars are still huge, but all of the data points matter. There is an alternative universe in which Cade is holding his own and flashing much more than he has so far.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,767
To me, you’ve got to look at Porzingis at the same stage of their career and see how Holmgren progresses from there. Interesting player but not sure he’ll ever be a teams primary option and that is obv what you’re looking for with the first pick or two.

Cunningham actually had a 4-5 game stretch last week where he looked like a legit All-Star then had a couple of duds. He hasn’t adjusted to the speed/length which is affecting his shooting but overall his floor game has been really good.
I think Mobley is a better comp than Porzingis to me. If he can get to 205 by the draft I'd feel a lot better as a GM about taking him top 3. I do think it's true he's never going to be a #1 option, but... I think he could give you good offensive production and has potential to be a menace on D. He ruined UCLA's offense in that game.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
3,964
Cultural hub of the universe
I think Mobley is a better comp than Porzingis to me. If he can get to 205 by the draft I'd feel a lot better as a GM about taking him top 3. I do think it's true he's never going to be a #1 option, but... I think he could give you good offensive production and has potential to be a menace on D. He ruined UCLA's offense in that game.
Duke is a pretty physical team and just kept taking it right at him. It really showed how much he struggles against strength.