2022 MLB Draft

soxhop411

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sean1562

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Jed Zeppelin said:
I think it’s really just the first part. NBA/NFL draftees can play their whole rookie contract in the time it takes a baseball draftee to debut.

Plus there is just not the same culture of interest in the college game. The first time the average fan hears about these players is on draft night if they are paying attention, if/when they are traded, or their MLB debut. There’s only so much the league could to do manufacture interest.
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It is hard to turn it into a really exciting event when most of these guys are never even gonna hit the majors. Players in the second round rarely ever pan out. I find it kind of strange that they are even trying to turn this into a big media event. The MLB Draft is nothing like the NBA or NFL drafts.

Since 2010, the only real impact players to come from the second rounds are

2016: Bo Bichette, Pete Alonso, Bryan Reynolds
2014: Alex Verdugo, Spencer Turnbull
2012: Alex Wood
2011: Josh Bell, Nick Ahmed
2010: Andrelton Simmons, Drew Smyly
 
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mauidano

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I’m gonna cheer extra hard for Roman Anthony out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas in Florida.
 
Manzivino

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Fun fact - Sox have not drafted a pitcher higher than the 4th round in 3 drafts under Bloom.
 
scottyno

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sean1562 said:
It is hard to turn it into a really exciting event when most of these guys are never even gonna hit the majors. Players in the second round rarely ever pan out. I find it kind of strange that they are even trying to turn this into a big media event. The MLB Draft is nothing like the NBA or NFL drafts.

Since 2010, the only real impact players to come from the second rounds are

2016: Bo Bichette, Pete Alonso, Bryan Reynolds
2014: Alex Verdugo, Spencer Turnbull
2012: Alex Wood
2011: Josh Bell, Nick Ahmed
2010: Andrelton Simmons, Drew Smyly
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And even for first rounders, though most will make the majors at some point the odds of them being relevant are pretty slim. The average career WAR for 1st rounders is under 10, and even for top 5 guys it isn't that much higher. Hard to get excited about the fact that your team drafted a guy who in 3-4 years might be a 2 WAR player for a few seasons.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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Looks like there are some questions about his contact ability but lots of raw power. Maybe some physical development left, he is not quite as big as fellow MSD alum Anthony Rizzo, whose name popped into my head after seeing Roman’s swing.

Those wishing we grabbed Spencer Jones should be happy.
 
Humphrey

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Ale Xander said:
Is it pronounced like sherpa?
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There was a basketball player at Algonquin Regional (alma mater of Mark Fidrych, who finished up at Worcester Academy) and now his daughter plays for them. First part is like sherpa, but with a long E. yerp-E.
 
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lexrageorge

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scottyno said:
Guess Bloom knew what he was doing and didn't totally waste a pick like some people here thought last year.
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Given both the draft slot and the associated bonus money rolled forward, I'll never understand the arguments that claimed that Bloom botched the pick.
 
sezwho

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scottyno said:
And even for first rounders, though most will make the majors at some point the odds of them being relevant are pretty slim. The average career WAR for 1st rounders is under 10, and even for top 5 guys it isn't that much higher. Hard to get excited about the fact that your team drafted a guy who in 3-4 years might be a 2 WAR player for a few seasons.
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I’m not sure that explains why no one would try to manufacture drama. The nba has made a big event from its draft and doesn’t exactly produces runaway success from its second round.

Feels like there has to be a more complex reason why trades aren’t allowed.
 
P

Pat Spillane

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Whats the overall verdict so far. Underslot Mikey not wowing anyone. Any verdict on Cutter or Roman? I am not that knowledgeable on these prospects. Seems to be a bit underwhelming what I am reading on them
 
DJnVa

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Pat Spillane said:
Whats the overall verdict so far. Underslot Mikey not wowing anyone. Any verdict on Cutter or Roman? I am not that knowledgeable on these prospects. Seems to be a bit underwhelming what I am reading on them
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Like 9 posts above you is a tweet that says Roman is a huge value there. And if Cutter is considered an above slot pick at 41, then there's likely a pretty good reason.
 
E5 Yaz

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Pat Spillane said:
Whats the overall verdict so far. Underslot Mikey not wowing anyone. Any verdict on Cutter or Roman? I am not that knowledgeable on these prospects. Seems to be a bit underwhelming what I am reading on them
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Along with what DJ said, the idea of coming up with a "verdict" on draft classes in baseball is, to be nice, premature at best. Because of the development period, it makes even less sense to evaluate it now than drafts in other pro sports.
 
Archer1979

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I found this article from last year on the Athletic by Keith Law which was interesting.

The median time for a college player taken in the top 20 picks from 2000 to 2018 to reach the majors was 810 days; for high school players, it was 1,458 days, so about two years difference. For college players, however, it’s on the rise — the median time for college players drafted in the top 20 from 2000 to 2009 was 786 days, but for players drafted from 2010 to 2020 the median is at 1,037 days, and if we roll back to skip the last few drafts and avoid the impact of the pandemic, it goes up even more, to 1,058 days if we cut off at 2010 to 2017.
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It ties into what DJ and E5 are saying in that there are no guarantees... especially for High School players as their time from Draft to the majors is understandably longer.
 
Cesar Crespo

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bosox188 said:
Isn't just about every good high school hitting prospect a shortstop? I wouldn't really pay attention to the position, a lot of them probably move off to something else.
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Pretty much. Every now and then you'll get a CF. At least at the top of the draft. This is why the Nick Yorke pick was panned. Once you move down a few rounds, there are more Blaze Jordan types. Usually the most athletic kid ends up playing SS whether he's good at it or not. Many are drafted at SS and are moved off the position immediately or soon there after. Michael Chavis and Mookie Betts come to minors. Others are allowed to stay at the position even if that's not where they project long term. Ex: Matthew Lugo, though he may move to 2b/OF if he shares a field with Mayer. Lumbering 1b only have one path to the majors. They have to rake. Toolsy shortstops have multiple paths to the majors.


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On another note, I hope we see more 2 way players in the minors. I don't know why the are already committed to Cutter Coffey at SS. Do the minor leagues have the same DH rules? They could always use him as an opener.

Also don't think the Sox really need pitching, so don't get the call for drafting pitchers even if one did draft for need. Bello, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Mata, Ward, Murphy. I guess there isn't much at the lower levels. Wikelman has a very live arm. Hunter Dobbins is turning some heads. Scouting reports are trailing behind on him. 4 pitch mix, currently sitting in the mid 90s and topping out at 98.

Of course, if the best available prospect is a pitcher, take him.
 
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The Boomer

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It seems to me with 3 fairly equal talents in the top 80 picks, Romero, Coffey and Anthony (RCA), might come close to being signed to comparable contracts. Romero comes in under slot, Coffey close to slot (maybe a little under) and Anthony above slot. Does this make sense? I haven't done the count but, to the extent that there is a Moneyball aspect to the draft, how many other organizations picked 3 HS players in their top 80 selections. Safer college players seemed to predominate. What was the HS, JC and college breakdown of those top draftees? HS pitchers are the riskiest picks with college pitchers being the safest picks in the context of all drafted pitchers are high risk. College hitters are safe but ceiling limited picks. HS hitters have the most upside.
 
The Boomer

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The Boomer said:
It seems to me with 3 fairly equal talents in the top 80 picks, Romero, Coffey and Anthony (RCA), might come close to being signed to comparable contracts. Romero comes in under slot, Coffey close to slot (maybe a little under) and Anthony above slot. Does this make sense? I haven't done the count but, to the extent that there is a Moneyball aspect to the draft, how many other organizations picked 3 HS players in their top 80 selections. Safer college players seemed to predominate. What was the HS, JC and college breakdown of those top draftees? HS pitchers are the riskiest picks with college pitchers being the safest picks in the context of all drafted pitchers are high risk. College hitters are safe but ceiling limited picks. HS hitters have the most upside.
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Answering my own question, the Sox were the only organization taking 3 HS players on Day 1 of the draft. A couple of teams with 4 selections split their choices between HS and C. No other team came close with college players predominating. Am I right that HS players who can hit were a less in demand category of prospects that other teams inefficiently avoided?
 
E5 Yaz

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The Boomer said:
Answering my own question, the Sox were the only organization taking 3 HS players on Day 1 of the draft. A couple of teams with 4 selections split their choices between HS and C. No other team came close with college players predominating. Am I right that HS players who can hit were a less in demand category of prospects that other teams inefficiently avoided?
Click to expand...
It could just be that the Red Sox went into this draft with the intention of continuing to spread the talent through their system. The better low-minors players are advancing, meaning they need a talent influx at that level. That's a guess on my part, but under Bloom the focus has been to rebuild the farm system to the point where it becomes a conveyor belt rather than a vending machine. Building the low minors also produces a wider range of talent to use eventually in deals.
 
Cesar Crespo

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Pat Spillane said:
Whats the overall verdict so far. Underslot Mikey not wowing anyone. Any verdict on Cutter or Roman? I am not that knowledgeable on these prospects. Seems to be a bit underwhelming what I am reading on them
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I'm not really a HS/College guy but I am a sox farm junkie. I like the profile of all 3 players. Mikey comes across as it's his birth right to play in the majors and that's the perfect attitude to have. Cutter has the potential to be an above average hitter and Roman has power you can dream on. He has some legit power at his age.
 
Cesar Crespo

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The Boomer said:
It seems to me with 3 fairly equal talents in the top 80 picks, Romero, Coffey and Anthony (RCA), might come close to being signed to comparable contracts. Romero comes in under slot, Coffey close to slot (maybe a little under) and Anthony above slot. Does this make sense? I haven't done the count but, to the extent that there is a Moneyball aspect to the draft, how many other organizations picked 3 HS players in their top 80 selections. Safer college players seemed to predominate. What was the HS, JC and college breakdown of those top draftees? HS pitchers are the riskiest picks with college pitchers being the safest picks in the context of all drafted pitchers are high risk. College hitters are safe but ceiling limited picks. HS hitters have the most upside.
Click to expand...
From what I have read, Romero is under slot, Coffey is OVER slot. Haven't heard anything on Anthony but given he appears eager to sign here, it may be around slot.
 
bibajesus

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Cesar Crespo said:
Pretty much. Every now and then you'll get a CF. At least at the top of the draft. This is why the Nick Yorke pick was panned. Once you move down a few rounds, there are more Blaze Jordan types. Usually the most athletic kid ends up playing SS whether he's good at it or not. Many are drafted at SS and are moved off the position immediately or soon there after. Michael Chavis and Mookie Betts come to minors. Others are allowed to stay at the position even if that's not where they project long term. Ex: Matthew Lugo, though he may move to 2b/OF if he shares a field with Mayer. Lumbering 1b only have one path to the majors. They have to rake. Toolsy shortstops have multiple paths to the majors.


---
On another note, I hope we see more 2 way players in the minors. I don't know why the are already committed to Cutter Coffey at SS. Do the minor leagues have the same DH rules? They could always use him as an opener.

Also don't think the Sox really need pitching, so don't get the call for drafting pitchers even if one did draft for need. Bello, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Mata, Ward, Murphy. I guess there isn't much at the lower levels. Wikelman has a very live arm. Hunter Dobbins is turning some heads. Scouting reports are trailing behind on him. 4 pitch mix, currently sitting in the mid 90s and topping out at 98.

Of course, if the best available prospect is a pitcher, take him.
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Was Eric Van still working for the team when they drafted those two?
 
Jed Zeppelin

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E5 Yaz said:
It could just be that the Red Sox went into this draft with the intention of continuing to spread the talent through their system. The better low-minors players are advancing, meaning they need a talent influx at that level. That's a guess on my part, but under Bloom the focus has been to rebuild the farm system to the point where it becomes a conveyor belt rather than a vending machine. Building the low minors also produces a wider range of talent to use eventually in deals.
Click to expand...
This makes me wonder about trade value. My gut tells me top prospect lists are more likely to be dominated by high school draftees or IFAs who are younger and have more projectibility/perceived upside whereas college players tend to be higher floor/lower ceiling in addition to being significantly older.

A high schooler with two years in the minors is still someone that you or another GM can dream on a bit. A college draftee two years in who isn't excelling in AA and pushing for a call-up may have people already screaming bust. "Recent" college successes like Pedey, Ellsbury, and JBJ followed that path while guys like Deven Marrero and Kolbrin Vitek became uninteresting REALLY quickly. I suspect there is less room for those guys to be valuable trade chips in the same way as high schoolers drafted around the same time.

It's a bit of age bias but guys no longer get to be called "toolsy" quite as easily once they hit 21. I think that perception matters.

edit: Also, re: lower minors pitching depth, we'll get a big boost whenever Noah Song is cleared.
 
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Joe Nation

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Ian Cundall: With their 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB draft (99th overall) the Red Sox selected Dalton Rogers out of Southern Mississippi. Undersized left-hander who was a juco transfer. Fastball sits 92-94 T96 with a slider and changeup. Draft ranks: MLB NR/BA 361/ESPN 135
 
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