2022 MLB Draft

[Jed Zeppelin]

The Red Sox have 4 picks in the top 100: 24, 41 (Fabian), 79 (ERod comp), and 99.

According to Keith Law, there is some buzz around Rocker and the Sox:


Have also seen them linked to various outfielders but that is probably the standard mistake of mocking players that are an organizational weakness at the moment, which is pretty meaningless when it comes to the draft.

A bit less interesting than last year’s draft but Rocker would be a spicy pick. He had a shoulder scope last fall but has been throwing well.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

Sigh. Just reminding me of Troy's fall from a major league city to short season A ball to whatever the Frontier League is.

At least we'll always have that time the SF Giants included Troy in the WS trophy tour.


Anyway, Rocker seems like a fun late first round pick for the Sox this year.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Here’s MLB.com’s latest usually-decently-informed Mock Draft, I assume there will be another before the actual Draft itself.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-july-6-2022

24. Red Sox: Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (Texas) HS (No. 21)
There's a good chance Williams won't last this long, which could leave the Red Sox looking at the college outfield crop: Tennessee teammates Jordan Beck and Gilbert, as well as Beavers, Thompson, and Melton. Rocker is an intriguing possibility too.

 

[Niastri]

Just because I had to look it up and want none of the other posters here to have to exhaust themselves the same way, the MLB Draft is this Sunday July 17th.

 

[Daniel_Son]

The Red Sox have 4 picks in the top 100: 24, 41 (Fabian), 79 (ERod comp), and 99.

According to Keith Law, there is some buzz around Rocker and the Sox:


Have also seen them linked to various outfielders but that is probably the standard mistake of mocking players that are an organizational weakness at the moment, which is pretty meaningless when it comes to the draft.

A bit less interesting than last year’s draft but Rocker would be a spicy pick. He had a shoulder scope last fall but has been throwing well.

Is there any realistic chance Rocker falls that far in the draft? He seemed to be a consensus top-3 pick as early as last year, right?

 

[Jimbodandy]

Is there any realistic chance Rocker falls that far in the draft? He seemed to be a consensus top-3 pick as early as last year, right?

A few things have happened between now and then.

I'd love Rocker as an upside pick at 24.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is there any realistic chance Rocker falls that far in the draft? He seemed to be a consensus top-3 pick as early as last year, right?

A consensus top-3 pick who fell to #10 last year for sign-ability reasons, went unsigned due to concerns about his arm, then he had surgery on his shoulder last fall. MLB.com's draft rankings has him at #38. The mock draft linked a few posts up, which has him going #17 to the Phillies, says "It's still hard to pinpoint where Rocker will land, but the industry consensus is that it will happen in the back half of the first round."

I'd say falling to the Sox at #24 is definitely within the realm of possibility, but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[Ganthem]

Is the shoulder the only major injury for Rocker thus far?

 

[nighthob]

Honestly it’s sleazy that Rocker has to go through this again after what the Mets pulled. He should have been a free agent the minute they pulled their offer to land an extra ‘22 first rounder.

 

[gammoseditor]

Honestly it’s sleazy that Rocker has to go through this again after what the Mets pulled. He should have been a free agent the minute they pulled their offer to land an extra ‘22 first rounder.

I’d be more sympathetic if he submitted his medicals predraft. I still think the team should be forced to make an offer a certain % of slot value. At least 75% or something like that.

 

[amfox1]

I’d be more sympathetic if he submitted his medicals predraft. I still think the team should be forced to make an offer a certain % of slot value. At least 75% or something like that.

To be eligible for a comp pick, the drafting team must offer the player at least 40 percent of slot value UNLESS the player is designated by MLB before the draft as a top-50 pitcher AND refuses to submit a pre-draft MRI. Rocker refused to submit the MRI and, therefore, NYM got the comp pick. The Mets were within their power. Rocker could have submitted an MRI (but presumably knew it wasn't clean).

 

[gammoseditor]

To be eligible for a comp pick, the drafting team must offer the player at least 40 percent of slot value UNLESS the player is designated by MLB before the draft as a top-50 pitcher AND refuses to submit a pre-draft MRI. Rocker refused to submit the MRI and, therefore, NYM got the comp pick. The Mets were within their power. Rocker could have submitted an MRI (but presumably knew it wasn't clean).

I didn’t know the exact details but knew the basics. IMHO 40% is very low and not getting an MRI predraft shouldn’t drop the number to 0. 75% with MRI 40% without seems more fair when the alternative for the player is waiting a year.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd be absolutely stoked if we got Rocker this season. I badly wanted either him or Leiter last year, but was a bit surprised when we landed Mayer. I wasn't at all excited about Henry Davis FWIW.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If he’s truly available to the Sox, it suggests that the Mets were right, no?

 

[amfox1]

I didn’t know the exact details but knew the basics. IMHO 40% is very low and not getting an MRI predraft shouldn’t drop the number to 0. 75% with MRI 40% without seems more fair when the alternative for the player is waiting a year.

The Mets slot was $4.7mm. You are basically saying that the Mets should take the injury risk of nearly $1.9mm on a pitcher with a known medical problem who refused to share their medical information with the team. Rocker would have dropped quite a bit under your version of the rule, as very few teams would have taken the dollar risk or the injury risk without knowing that there was recourse to get a similar pick in the following year. (BTW, Rocker wouldn't have accepted $1.9mm, and Rocker and the Mets would be in the exact same place.)

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

If he’s truly available to the Sox, it suggests that the Mets were right, no?

It is possible the Mets were right with the information they had at the time AND that new information means his value is now lower—but still high enough to be a legit 1st rounder.

 

[OCD SS]

I think the reason Rocker, or any top pitcher doesn’t submit medical is that they know they aren’t clean, and don’t want opinions on those medicals to circulate and be used against them. Rocker had warning signs (usage, fluctuating velocity & stuff), but this is the result of the Mets disliking his medicals, but I’m not sure if MLB is going to be able to incentivize players releasing them to all 30 teams enough to overcome the perceived risk of opinions on them getting out…

 

[sodenj5]

I think the only “risk” with Rocker is he and his camp pushing to sign a top 10 worthy deal to recoup the potential loss in earnings by not signing last year.

From an on-field perspective, there’s nearly no risk with taking a talent like that in the back half of the first round. If his arm falls apart, it falls apart. There are dozens of high school and college pitchers that never make it to the majors for a variety of reasons.

If his health was 100% clean, you’d have no shot at him. You accept the risk and hope it pans out.

 

[jon abbey]

Scouts question Rocker’s changeup and his mechanics, and while the system kind of screwed him (both the Mets and his agent Boras), he didn’t do himself any favors by disappearing from sight for most of the intervening year. This is all in this article:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-kumar-rocker-went-from-top-10-pick-in-2021-to-one-of-mlb-drafts-biggest-mysteries-in-2022/

 

[sodenj5]

Scouts question Rocker’s changeup and his mechanics, and while the system kind of screwed him (both the Mets and his agent Boras), he didn’t do himself any favors by disappearing from sight for most of the intervening year. This is all in this article:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-kumar-rocker-went-from-top-10-pick-in-2021-to-one-of-mlb-drafts-biggest-mysteries-in-2022/

I read the same article this morning. I think that the Sox in particular have such a dearth of premium pitching talent in the pipeline, that they’re exactly the type of organization that should be rolling the dice on Rocker.

Even if he only ever pans out as a reliever with a plus fastball and slider, that would be a revelation for them at this point.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

In case you were curious, here’s the info about bonus pool/slot money:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values

 

[OCD SS]

I read the same article this morning. I think that the Sox in particular have such a dearth of premium pitching talent in the pipeline, that they’re exactly the type of organization that should be rolling the dice on Rocker.

Even if he only ever pans out as a reliever with a plus fastball and slider, that would be a revelation for them at this point.

There are a few different pitchers in the draft who would go much higher, but are coming off TJ surgeries (but don't have Rocker's brand recognition); the Sox could target any of them as a Walker Buehler type pick, depending on who will fall.

Given last year's acrimony has their been any indication if Fabian would consent to a redraft by the Sox?

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Given last year's acrimony has their been any indication if Fabian would consent to a redraft by the Sox?

His father said they will not allow it on twitter

 

[Ganthem]

His father said they will not allow it on twitter

I didn't realize there was acrimony. I thought they just didn't come to an agreement on the price tag. It is a business how does that lead to acrimony? If Fabian is the best pick at whatever position the Sox are at they should take him. If he wants to continue to delay his career that is his choice.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He hit .239 and struck out in 22% of his plate appearances. Walks a lot and there’s power but has his stock really improved much in a year?

(sounds like the answer is…maybe a little bit).

https://theathletic.com/3371487/2022/06/17/jud-fabian-mlb-draft-florida/

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Pardon my ignorance here: does Fabian have to give consent for the Sox to be able to draft him again?

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/23fabe23/status/1491827446060097536?s=21&t=wSah-g8bf3Tc95F38F8Yjw


Here’s the tweet from his father (I think it’s his father) and the context

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Pardon my ignorance here: does Fabian have to give consent for the Sox to be able to draft him again?

He doesn't have to give consent. However, if he makes it clear he's never signing, the Sox are wasting a(nother) pick if they draft him again.

 

[Ganthem]

He doesn't have to give consent. However, if he makes it clear he's never signing, the Sox are wasting a(nother) pick if they draft him again.

Do they get a comp pick for the following year if they pick him and he refuses to sign?

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

View: https://twitter.com/23fabe23/status/1491827446060097536?s=21&t=wSah-g8bf3Tc95F38F8Yjw


Here’s the tweet from his father (I think it’s his father) and the context

Maybe not directly related, but here is Fabian being interviewed the other day at Fenway.

View: https://twitter.com/reedbecker21/status/1546494848416595968

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wrong Fabian, that’s his younger brother.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

He hit .239 and struck out in 22% of his plate appearances. Walks a lot and there’s power but has his stock really improved much in a year?

(sounds like the answer is…maybe a little bit).

https://theathletic.com/3371487/2022/06/17/jud-fabian-mlb-draft-florida/

This is shameless public relations

 

[JBJ_HOF]

He doesn't have to give consent. However, if he makes it clear he's never signing, the Sox are wasting a(nother) pick if they draft him again.

They need to give consent to be redrafted after being drafted and unsigned

 

[TimScribble]

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1546904204169678853?s=21&t=4KsodLsPdMdVKI47RMbY6A

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I didn't realize there was acrimony. I thought they just didn't come to an agreement on the price tag. It is a business how does that lead to acrimony? If Fabian is the best pick at whatever position the Sox are at they should take him. If he wants to continue to delay his career that is his choice.

I believe the story was that another team had made a promise to draft him in round two and offer him over-slot money, then the Red Sox swooped in and picked him (before the other team had a chance) and offered him less, essentially daring him to go back to school if he didn’t like it.

I read this somewhere on SoSH, I’ll try to find it when I have a minute.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

The Sox offered him over-slot money ($2m, slot was $1.8m), Fabian held out for $3m.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Sox offered him over-slot money ($2m, slot was $1.8m), Fabian held out for $3m.

I will never understand the logic. Going pro a year faster, he should surely be able to make up the difference and then some.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The Sox offered him over-slot money ($2m, slot was $1.8m), Fabian held out for $3m.

I knew I wasn't making this up:

Gammo claims we will NOT sign Fabian. Could be posturing of course.

View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1419815925096845316


"Agency for Boston’s 2d round draft choice Florida CF Jud Fabian isn’t signing. Two teams behind Bostonntalked $3m before draft, Sox not going to 3 "

He held out for $3 million because possibly two teams had said they'd offer him that much. If you believe Gammons, of course.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I will never understand the logic. Going pro a year faster, he should surely be able to make up the difference and then some.

I mostly agree but isn't that true only if he makes the show?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I mostly agree but isn't that true only if he makes the show?

Sure. If there’s a guy who is holding out for $3M instead of $2M because he thinks it’s going to be his one payday, that’s probably not a guy you want anyways, right?

 

[Ganthem]

I can't imagine advising my kids to reject two million dollars and roll the dice the following year. If invested correctly and assuming a person is not living in a super expensive area, that can be retirement money right there.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

Sure. If there’s a guy who is holding out for $3M instead of $2M because he thinks it’s going to be his one payday, that’s probably not a guy you want anyways, right?

Yep, I'm with you.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Sure. If there’s a guy who is holding out for $3M instead of $2M because he thinks it’s going to be his one payday, that’s probably not a guy you want anyways, right?

Or he’s so confident in his ability that he expects to be drafted higher and make even more this year. Betting on himself, not unlike, say, Mookie. Plus, as the Athletic article pointed out, he got to play with his brother by staying in school an extra year.

 

[burstnbloom]

The risk with Fabian last year was that his hit tool would never develop enough to get to his power. Still his position profile and power/discipline combo were intriguing. He's valued right around the end of the first round this year after having a pretty similar year. he struck out a little less, walked a bit more, but he's still a below average hitter in the SEC. How is he going to get to 97mph in AA? I think he made a mistake and the sox dodged a bullet.

 

[Jimbodandy]

The risk with Fabian last year was that his hit tool would never develop enough to get to his power. Still his position profile and power/discipline combo were intriguing. He's valued right around the end of the first round this year after having a pretty similar year. he struck out a little less, walked a bit more, but he's still a below average hitter in the SEC. How is he going to get to 97mph in AA? I think he made a mistake and the sox dodged a bullet.

And he has now done it two years in a row, following his nice 2021 with a slightly nicer 2022. Doing it twice is more evidence. I think that the contact questions are still there, but he seems to have improved his plate discipline some and maintained the power.

I'm on #teamrocker. We need arms.

 

[burstnbloom]

And he has now done it two years in a row, following his nice 2021 with a slightly nicer 2022. Doing it twice is more evidence. I think that the contact questions are still there, but he seems to have improved his plate discipline some and maintained the power.

I'm on #teamrocker. We need arms.

ya it’s passable in ncaa but it’s hard to project a guy like him with such a big gap between hit and power to find success against major league pitching without vastly improving the hit tool.

 

[Chainsaw318]

There are a few different pitchers in the draft who would go much higher, but are coming off TJ surgeries (but don't have Rocker's brand recognition); the Sox could target any of them as a Walker Buehler type pick, depending on who will fall.

Fun fact - Sox did this last year with 8th rounder Hunter Dobbins, who is now becoming interesting in Low A Salem.

Results have been good,not sure if his stuff is all the way back.

https://soxprospects.com/players/dobbins-hunter.htm

 

[Jimbodandy]

ya it’s passable in ncaa but it’s hard to project a guy like him with such a big gap between hit and power to find success against major league pitching without vastly improving the hit tool.

Complete agree. The power is fantastic but won't be much good if he makes a ton of outs. Anyone giving him a huge bonus is betting big on him improving the hit tool.

 

[DJnVa]

Bloom on the draft

Bloom: You could argue that the draft is the most important three days of our year considering how much impact it has on how good you are over time. It's huge. And fortunately, we have a great group of people working on it year-round to put us in a position to make good decisions.

 

[Sin Duda]

How did we not see that Sam Horn is a top HS pitching prospect?
Top Baseball Draft Prospects (mlb.com)
Missouri commit QB / Pitcher