2022 Cleveland Guard Railing
- Thread starter Sad Sam Jones
- Start date
Cleveland has sent Nolan Jones back down to AAA. He was enjoying a break out year in Columbus when he was promoted in July and carried his performance over for a few weeks, but he's struggled badly in August with 6 hits in his last 37 at-bats – all singles – 17 strikeouts and not a single walk. We'll see if he can get back on track in AAA or if he reverts back to being a low average hitter who has to get by with patience and bursts of power (Bobby Dalbec with a better eye).
With Monday off, they haven't immediately announced who's coming up to take his spot, but I don't think it will be another MLB debut. If Austin Hedges was really hurting, they could have continued to go aggressive on the Rule 5 eligible players and give Bo Naylor a shot, but Hedges should be good to go by Tuesday. I could be wrong and they promote outfielder Will Brennan. He's been in a deep slump although his over all numbers in AAA are still strong (.306/.368/.437). It seems more likely to be the return of Richie Palacios or possibly Ernie Clement (although there's less positional logic for the latter). They could also bring Gabriel Arias back up since he's been a .300 hitter over the past three weeks, but they still have Tyler Freeman riding the pine in Cleveland, so I don't know how they would find the opportunity to get him playing time.
Meanwhile, I'm finding fewer reasons to go to AA games at Akron. Naylor and Brennan were promoted months ago, George Valera joined them in Columbus less than two weeks ago, and Brayan Rocchio made the jump over the weekend. Jose Tena and Jhonkensy Noel remain in Akron. Noel's raw power continues to be undeniable but his hitting has regressed this year. They did get another legit prospect to replace Rocchio with the promotion of shortstop Angel Martinez. The son of former vagabond catcher Sandy Martinez, Angel falls into the same trap as Tena and Noel last year, where he's reaching AA late in his age 20 season, but will already need to be rostered this fall just to avoid the risk of the Rule 5 draft.
With Monday off, they haven't immediately announced who's coming up to take his spot, but I don't think it will be another MLB debut. If Austin Hedges was really hurting, they could have continued to go aggressive on the Rule 5 eligible players and give Bo Naylor a shot, but Hedges should be good to go by Tuesday. I could be wrong and they promote outfielder Will Brennan. He's been in a deep slump although his over all numbers in AAA are still strong (.306/.368/.437). It seems more likely to be the return of Richie Palacios or possibly Ernie Clement (although there's less positional logic for the latter). They could also bring Gabriel Arias back up since he's been a .300 hitter over the past three weeks, but they still have Tyler Freeman riding the pine in Cleveland, so I don't know how they would find the opportunity to get him playing time.
Meanwhile, I'm finding fewer reasons to go to AA games at Akron. Naylor and Brennan were promoted months ago, George Valera joined them in Columbus less than two weeks ago, and Brayan Rocchio made the jump over the weekend. Jose Tena and Jhonkensy Noel remain in Akron. Noel's raw power continues to be undeniable but his hitting has regressed this year. They did get another legit prospect to replace Rocchio with the promotion of shortstop Angel Martinez. The son of former vagabond catcher Sandy Martinez, Angel falls into the same trap as Tena and Noel last year, where he's reaching AA late in his age 20 season, but will already need to be rostered this fall just to avoid the risk of the Rule 5 draft.
The Guardians lost 40% of their starting rotation today. At least it was the worst 40%.
That said, Aaron Civale has pitched really well since returning from his first trip on the IL this season. Over his last 10 starts, he's posted a 3.22 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .229/.286/.356 against him. He's a "twice through the order" guy and this is his third trip to the IL this season, so he hasn't given the team many innings (or worked down his ERA from a disastrous first month). Civale has muscle swelling in his forearm and will probably need two weeks of meds and treatment before being reevaluated. He's probably looking at coming back late in the season on a limited pitch count (as they possibly head into the playoffs).
Zach Plesac's injury is addition by subtraction. I was disappointed Cleveland wasn't able to find a team desperate enough for innings to trade Plesac at the deadline. Aside from a flukish small sample size in 2020, he's always been a back-of-the-rotation starter with rare flashes where he gets weak grounder after weak grounder. His immaturity and temper – and just plain boneheadedness – make him impossible to root for. This time it's a broken pinky from pounding dirt in his last start. He's previously injured himself by tearing his shirt off. He basically has all of Trevor Bauer's poor decision making (okay, hopefully not all of it, since that escalated to criminal activity) without any of his talent. He might be back within a couple of weeks, but I'd rather just see the worst case scenario and Cody Morris or Xzavion Curry get hot. They also have Connor Pilkington, who has made spot starts throughout the season, and Peyton Battenfield, who was added for depth for one series last month but didn't pitch.
The good news is that Morris had already come off the 60-day IL yesterday after straining his back in spring training. He was added to the 40-man roster last fall, so this gives him a chance to get his feet wet and not just waste his first option year pitching "rehab" in AAA, but he was only at 60 pitches in his last start, so the bad part is Kirk McCarty is also back and probably there to piggyback the Morris starts. He'll become the 15th Guardian to make his MLB debut tonight. Morris is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid-90s fastball, plus changeup, average curve and a cutter that's a work in progress. He probably tops out as a mid-rotation guy, but he's been an overachiever getting better at each new level. Between that and a long history of injuries, he's a bit hard to project. Over the past two years, he's posted a 1.75 ERA across AA/AAA, but that's only 72 innings. He's struck out 39.4% of the batters he's faced at those levels, and like most Guardians starting prospects, he pounds the strike zone. They definitely like him as a starter, but I think he would at least have a future as a reliever if he can't build up to starters innings long-term.
…
Cleveland wraps up the toughest 12-game stretch that was left on their schedule with three at home against the Mariners this weekend. They've gone 4-5 so far, which isn't bad since it started out against two potential playoff teams on the West Coast. If extra innings had worked out better, they'd be 5-4, but the lineup has struggled, getting shut out 4 times in their last 10 games. A week from today, they begin a stretch of 8 games in 12 days against the Twins, which could determine the AL Central champion a couple of weeks early. Although the Twins have cut the current lead back down to one game, the Guardians have the advantage of a lot more home games left on the schedule while the Twins will be traveling a lot. Cleveland also finishes out the regular season with six straight against the Royals.
I'll be in Chicago in a few weeks and will be in attendance when the Guardians wrap up a series against the White Sox on September 22nd... all those Twins games will be over by then and who knows if the White Sox will be in the thick of it or out of it.
That said, Aaron Civale has pitched really well since returning from his first trip on the IL this season. Over his last 10 starts, he's posted a 3.22 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .229/.286/.356 against him. He's a "twice through the order" guy and this is his third trip to the IL this season, so he hasn't given the team many innings (or worked down his ERA from a disastrous first month). Civale has muscle swelling in his forearm and will probably need two weeks of meds and treatment before being reevaluated. He's probably looking at coming back late in the season on a limited pitch count (as they possibly head into the playoffs).
Zach Plesac's injury is addition by subtraction. I was disappointed Cleveland wasn't able to find a team desperate enough for innings to trade Plesac at the deadline. Aside from a flukish small sample size in 2020, he's always been a back-of-the-rotation starter with rare flashes where he gets weak grounder after weak grounder. His immaturity and temper – and just plain boneheadedness – make him impossible to root for. This time it's a broken pinky from pounding dirt in his last start. He's previously injured himself by tearing his shirt off. He basically has all of Trevor Bauer's poor decision making (okay, hopefully not all of it, since that escalated to criminal activity) without any of his talent. He might be back within a couple of weeks, but I'd rather just see the worst case scenario and Cody Morris or Xzavion Curry get hot. They also have Connor Pilkington, who has made spot starts throughout the season, and Peyton Battenfield, who was added for depth for one series last month but didn't pitch.
The good news is that Morris had already come off the 60-day IL yesterday after straining his back in spring training. He was added to the 40-man roster last fall, so this gives him a chance to get his feet wet and not just waste his first option year pitching "rehab" in AAA, but he was only at 60 pitches in his last start, so the bad part is Kirk McCarty is also back and probably there to piggyback the Morris starts. He'll become the 15th Guardian to make his MLB debut tonight. Morris is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid-90s fastball, plus changeup, average curve and a cutter that's a work in progress. He probably tops out as a mid-rotation guy, but he's been an overachiever getting better at each new level. Between that and a long history of injuries, he's a bit hard to project. Over the past two years, he's posted a 1.75 ERA across AA/AAA, but that's only 72 innings. He's struck out 39.4% of the batters he's faced at those levels, and like most Guardians starting prospects, he pounds the strike zone. They definitely like him as a starter, but I think he would at least have a future as a reliever if he can't build up to starters innings long-term.
…
Cleveland wraps up the toughest 12-game stretch that was left on their schedule with three at home against the Mariners this weekend. They've gone 4-5 so far, which isn't bad since it started out against two potential playoff teams on the West Coast. If extra innings had worked out better, they'd be 5-4, but the lineup has struggled, getting shut out 4 times in their last 10 games. A week from today, they begin a stretch of 8 games in 12 days against the Twins, which could determine the AL Central champion a couple of weeks early. Although the Twins have cut the current lead back down to one game, the Guardians have the advantage of a lot more home games left on the schedule while the Twins will be traveling a lot. Cleveland also finishes out the regular season with six straight against the Royals.
I'll be in Chicago in a few weeks and will be in attendance when the Guardians wrap up a series against the White Sox on September 22nd... all those Twins games will be over by then and who knows if the White Sox will be in the thick of it or out of it.
Kwan did strikeout against the Royals last night. It was actually the first time he'd ever swung at and missed a pitch from a Royals pitcher.
Twins are still Twinning today… after neither team can get the runner in from 2nd in the 10th or 11th, they took the lead in the 12th, only to lose yet again to the Yankees in the first game of a double-header. The Guardians have a chance to gain 1.5 games in the standings tonight. The Royals are usually their personal slump busters, but they'll have to rely on a bullpen game tonight against Zach Greinke. Cody Morris will only throw around 65 pitches for Cleveland. Hopefully with his debut out of the way, he'll be less amped up tonight… or at least Austin Hedges will figure out this time that calling for high fastball after high fastball is a bad strategy. None of his teammates did Morris any favors in his first game.
Twins are still Twinning today… after neither team can get the runner in from 2nd in the 10th or 11th, they took the lead in the 12th, only to lose yet again to the Yankees in the first game of a double-header. The Guardians have a chance to gain 1.5 games in the standings tonight. The Royals are usually their personal slump busters, but they'll have to rely on a bullpen game tonight against Zach Greinke. Cody Morris will only throw around 65 pitches for Cleveland. Hopefully with his debut out of the way, he'll be less amped up tonight… or at least Austin Hedges will figure out this time that calling for high fastball after high fastball is a bad strategy. None of his teammates did Morris any favors in his first game.
Anthony Gose is having Tommy John surgery. His return to the majors as a pitcher was a nice feel-good story, but this is good news for Cleveland since they now have zero reason to keep him on the roster this off-season. I never understood adding him to it last year – he's a hard thrower, but has never thrown enough strikes to be a pitcher. I would have been irate if Oscar Gonzalez was now doing what he's doing with some other team because they protected a situational lefty in his thirties with no record of success.
So why isn't this team drawing? I hadn't been to a game there in at least 10 years, but I've always loved the park. I went on Tuesday and was surprised/disappointed by the crowd of 14,000. Good, fun team in a pennant race, great park...what's the deal?
That should pretty much wrap up the division title. Kudos especially to Tito for an outstanding season.
I imagine there is some backlash amongst older fans about the name change.
I'm probably not a good one to answer the attendance issue. I haven't been to a game since pre-pandemic, but I also live 75 miles from Cleveland and work evenings. Not to mention, I prefer the smaller, laid-back atmosphere of a minor league game and have been going to more of those than major league games the past 15 years. When I have the opportunity to go to a game, it's usually the Akron RubberDucks (which round-trip saves me an hour of drive-time vs. a Guardians game).
The only thing that would make Cleveland a baseball town is getting rid of the Browns… which I would fully support doing again. They haven't drawn well on weeknights in years and I assume they have evidence to support the 6pm start times during the school year, but I still absolutely hate them. As mentioned, there is also a sad demographic that still thinks the Indians part of the team identity was more important than the Cleveland part of it. All that said, there is a justified issue against the cheapness of the Dolan family. All success should be credited to Chris Antonetti, Mike Chernoff and the rest of the front office. They'll need to do it all over again in a couple of years when the Dolans decide the kids are getting too expensive again. Paul Dolan deserves no faith from the fans and I only hope David Blitzer gives them reason to believe when he finally becomes majority owner.
All that said, we were really repping at Guaranteed Rates Field* on Thursday. I was shocked at how many Guardians fans were there on a weekday in September. The only group that was louder were all the Chicago fans heckling and booing the White Sox.
*I had really low expectations of the White Sox home park and I was still disappointed. I know they missed the wave of retro parks that soon followed its construction, but that park was built with no imagination or foresight (I know it was also built to resemble the original Comiskey, but was it really that bad?). The whole park is generic and cookie cutter, with 3-4 basic concessions that simply repeat in cycle. The only character is a few statues they've shoehorned into random spots. The weirdest part is segregating the 500 level people at the entrance and sending them upstairs to stay, so they can't enjoy the same blandness the 100 level people are treated to (I couldn't help but think of the annoying guy on our Wrigley Field tour that morning, who seemed really proud of himself for getting a $1 ticket to the game). The whole experience there screams 1990, which isn't really the retro anyone wants.
The only thing that would make Cleveland a baseball town is getting rid of the Browns… which I would fully support doing again. They haven't drawn well on weeknights in years and I assume they have evidence to support the 6pm start times during the school year, but I still absolutely hate them. As mentioned, there is also a sad demographic that still thinks the Indians part of the team identity was more important than the Cleveland part of it. All that said, there is a justified issue against the cheapness of the Dolan family. All success should be credited to Chris Antonetti, Mike Chernoff and the rest of the front office. They'll need to do it all over again in a couple of years when the Dolans decide the kids are getting too expensive again. Paul Dolan deserves no faith from the fans and I only hope David Blitzer gives them reason to believe when he finally becomes majority owner.
All that said, we were really repping at Guaranteed Rates Field* on Thursday. I was shocked at how many Guardians fans were there on a weekday in September. The only group that was louder were all the Chicago fans heckling and booing the White Sox.
*I had really low expectations of the White Sox home park and I was still disappointed. I know they missed the wave of retro parks that soon followed its construction, but that park was built with no imagination or foresight (I know it was also built to resemble the original Comiskey, but was it really that bad?). The whole park is generic and cookie cutter, with 3-4 basic concessions that simply repeat in cycle. The only character is a few statues they've shoehorned into random spots. The weirdest part is segregating the 500 level people at the entrance and sending them upstairs to stay, so they can't enjoy the same blandness the 100 level people are treated to (I couldn't help but think of the annoying guy on our Wrigley Field tour that morning, who seemed really proud of himself for getting a $1 ticket to the game). The whole experience there screams 1990, which isn't really the retro anyone wants.
It's not just a Cleveland problem. The entire AL Central draws relatively poorly, and I suspect it has to do with the overall mediocrity of the individual teams as well as the division as a whole.
I'm pretty sure Minnesota in 2019 was the only time any of the ALC teams had a ranking in the top half in recent memory (discounting 2021 because of Covid restrictions that kind of threw everything out of whack). And that includes Cleveland in 2017, the year after they made the World Series.
As an adopted Twins fan, there is just a blandness to the entire division that has lasted for *years*.
I'm pretty sure Minnesota in 2019 was the only time any of the ALC teams had a ranking in the top half in recent memory (discounting 2021 because of Covid restrictions that kind of threw everything out of whack). And that includes Cleveland in 2017, the year after they made the World Series.
As an adopted Twins fan, there is just a blandness to the entire division that has lasted for *years*.
Agreed. It "should" have started changing with the White Sox over the last couple years, who seemed to have finally put together an exciting and relatively young core. Not really sure what happened there.......
The Guardians didn't waste any time addressing the prospects facing 40-man roster protection. Six of the ten on this list have been added to the roster and promoted to Cleveland in the past two months. Today it was top catching prospect – and Josh's little brother – Bo Naylor. He became the 17th Guardian to make his major league debut this year when he entered mid-game and within a couple of minutes threw out the first runner to attempt a stolen base against him. The Naylors are the first set of brothers to play for Cleveland since Sandy and Roberto Alomar in 2000.
Mikolajchak is the only player left on this list who has or had a chance of playing for Cleveland yet this year. Cantillo spent the year in AA, Martinez is a 20-year-old who only reached AA late in the season and Hankins is recovering from Tommy John surgery.
However, the real reason for celebration is that this all means today was finally "Bryan Shaw DFA Day"!
Zach Plesac returned from the IL tonight and did nothing to convince anyone he belongs on the playoff roster (KC hitters were 7-for-18 against him and while he was only charged with a single earned run, they scored four times against him). I believe Aaron Civale was already named the potential "4th starter" in the playoffs (Game #1 of the ALDS if necessary). The question is whether Plesac's experience and role in the rotation is enough to earn him the long-inning/swing man role over Cody Morris who has pitched much better, but has only been in the majors for a month. Considering Plesac's well earned reputation as an unpopular jackass, I'm not sure he gets the benefit of the doubt other veterans would.
The Guardians will go with a 12-man pitching staff in the first round, so every position player on the current roster will also be on the playoff roster this weekend:
LF: Steven Kwan
SS: Amed Rosario
3B: Jose Ramirez
2B: Andres Gimenez
1B: Josh Naylor
DH: Oscar Gonzalez
RF: Will Brennan
C: Austin Hedges
CF: Myles Straw
C: Luke Maile, Bo Naylor
INF: Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias
OF: Will Benson
With three catchers – 2 of whom have established long ago they can't hit – Cleveland will be aggressive in pinch-hitting. Bo Naylor has a little more potential at the plate, but will actually enter the post-season without a major league hit. The only other spot in the lineup with a sub-100 OPS+ is Straw in center, but he's hitting .326 over his last 27 games. Will Brennan will have fewer than 50 career plate appearances, but he's currently batting .366 after hitting .314 in the minors. It would be nice to have another guy with pop, but Brennan gives them an outfield with three guys with center field range and Oscar Gonzalez can move into the DH spot. Owen Miller could get a start, but Arias and Benson are simply there for pinch-running or batting for a catcher. Personally, I'd prefer Tyler Freeman over Arias since he's much sounder in the field and a better on-base guy, but overall, Arias is a bigger threat at the plate.
The pitching staff should be:
Game #1: Shane Bieber
Game #2: Triston McKenzie
(Game #3): Cal Quantrill
RP: Zach Plesac
RP: Cody Morris
RP: Eli Morgan
RP: Nick Sandlin
RP: Enyel De Los Santos
RP: Trevor Stephan
RP: Sam Hentges
RP: James Karinchak
RP: Emanuel Clase
The only spot I'm not certain of is whether they might consider Kirk McCarty as a second lefty out of the pen, but I assume they want the more talented Cody Morris for potential long relief (and who I would happily take in that role ahead of Plesac).
LF: Steven Kwan
SS: Amed Rosario
3B: Jose Ramirez
2B: Andres Gimenez
1B: Josh Naylor
DH: Oscar Gonzalez
RF: Will Brennan
C: Austin Hedges
CF: Myles Straw
C: Luke Maile, Bo Naylor
INF: Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias
OF: Will Benson
With three catchers – 2 of whom have established long ago they can't hit – Cleveland will be aggressive in pinch-hitting. Bo Naylor has a little more potential at the plate, but will actually enter the post-season without a major league hit. The only other spot in the lineup with a sub-100 OPS+ is Straw in center, but he's hitting .326 over his last 27 games. Will Brennan will have fewer than 50 career plate appearances, but he's currently batting .366 after hitting .314 in the minors. It would be nice to have another guy with pop, but Brennan gives them an outfield with three guys with center field range and Oscar Gonzalez can move into the DH spot. Owen Miller could get a start, but Arias and Benson are simply there for pinch-running or batting for a catcher. Personally, I'd prefer Tyler Freeman over Arias since he's much sounder in the field and a better on-base guy, but overall, Arias is a bigger threat at the plate.
The pitching staff should be:
Game #1: Shane Bieber
Game #2: Triston McKenzie
(Game #3): Cal Quantrill
RP: Zach Plesac
RP: Cody Morris
RP: Eli Morgan
RP: Nick Sandlin
RP: Enyel De Los Santos
RP: Trevor Stephan
RP: Sam Hentges
RP: James Karinchak
RP: Emanuel Clase
The only spot I'm not certain of is whether they might consider Kirk McCarty as a second lefty out of the pen, but I assume they want the more talented Cody Morris for potential long relief (and who I would happily take in that role ahead of Plesac).
Jose Ramirez will have surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right thumb. He injured it in mid-June and noticeably lost his power for a while… I believe it happened June 17th and then after sitting out 2 games he hit 1 home run in his next 26 games while batting .240/.294/.370. I was unaware it was still an issue, but it sheds a lot of light on things – after getting off to the best start of his career, he hit .264/.329/.437 the remainder of the season (97 games). He also struck out in only 7.6% of his at-bats in the 60 games before the injury but 14.7% after.
It's a 6-8 week recovery time, so there's no reason to think it will affect his 2023 season. Instead it could bode well for a great year if he returns to his early season performance for a longer stretch.
It's a 6-8 week recovery time, so there's no reason to think it will affect his 2023 season. Instead it could bode well for a great year if he returns to his early season performance for a longer stretch.
I really haven't read any of the off-season articles claiming to know what the Guardians need to compete in 2023, but here are a few of my thoughts to wrap up the 2022 thread…
Austin Hedges is Cleveland's only free agent heading into the off-season. I don't expect the Guardians to show much if any interest in bringing him back… he's good behind the plate and handling a staff, but he always has and always will hit like a pitcher. They covered a transition period here by signing Luke Maile to a 2-year deal last winter to be the second catcher. They seemed happy with him behind the plate, and while he's not much of a threat at the plate, he still clears the low bar of being their best hitting catcher since Yan Gomes. Top catching prospect Bo Naylor got his feet wet in September and was a bench warmer during the playoffs. They like him behind the plate and he reinvented his approach at the plate this past year to become a guy who's going to get on base – probably at a rate well above your typical catcher – even if he's not hitting. I suspect the plan would be to begin 2023 with Naylor as the "day game after a night game" catcher and/or linked up as someone's personal catcher (and he has experience in the minors with some of their younger pitchers) and then he'll be given the opportunity to earn the bulk of the playing time. The Guardians will probably be happy with this setup and sign the next "Sandy Leon" to stash away in AAA in case the plan falls apart.
The team's biggest need is a right-handed bat with some power. I don't see any signs they will play with the big boys in free agency, but now would be the time to snag someone from the lower tier. The best fit would be someone in the 1B/RF/DH mix, platooning with Josh Naylor or rotating through the DH spot with Oscar Gonzalez. My guess would be someone who falls along the spectrum from Jesus Aguilar to Trey Mancini (maybe Josh Bell tanked his value enough in the 2nd half to drop into that tier?). The idea wouldn't be to lock up a middle of the order bat long-term, it would be to bring in someone on a short-term deal with a baseline high enough to fully replace the at-bats of Naylor or Gonzalez in a worst case scenario, but still someone who could be moved in a trade or to the bench in case those two continue to hit and George Valera is ready to join the Guardians by late summer. Ultimately, the most likely long-term outlook at this point seems to be Valera ascending to the right field job and Gonzalez becoming the DH.
The other sources for adding talent appear to be trading from their depth among middle infielders and major league ready starting pitching. I would be surprised to see Zach Plesac return, since the greatest benefit of Cleveland's pitching development machine is not needing to pay arbitration prices for starting pitching that isn't elite. I'm sure they'd like to lock up Bieber and McKenzie long-term and they'd be open to striking a deal with Quantrill, but guys like Plesac and Civale are completely fungible, so always pay the lowest price. Cody Morris seems to be at the top of heap of guys moving up from AAA, but should he fail, there's Pilkington, Battenfield, Curry, etc. right behind him. Plesac seems to have worn out his welcome with his repeated childish behavior and last year was a guy who always managed to find a way to lose. I'm not sure how much value he has in the trade market, I assume he'd probably be packaged with someone else interesting, but if they find no takers, I think he'd be a non-tender candidate.
I also think they have to seriously consider trading Amed Rosario. I completely changed my mind about Rosario over the past two years, and I think a swing-happy balls-to-the-wall guy who can be counted on to hit .280 is undervalued by modern metrics. However, he's entering his final year of arbitration and there are too many infielders on the minor league conveyor belt to consider keeping him long-term. Gabe Arias and Tyler Freeman probably both have more to lose than gain by spending another season in AAA. Then there's Brayan Rocchio and possibly even Jose Tena who could be MLB-ready by next August. I still think Andres Gimenez is probably best utilized as a shortstop, but he just grabbed the Gold Glove at second base, so he allows the flexibility of setting up the infield to best fit whoever the top candidate is to move into Cleveland's lineup. A Plesac and/or Rosario package that includes one of the middle infield or starting pitcher prospects would hopefully land the right-handed bat they need, but with more cost-control and upside than what they'd be willing to pay to someone from the free agent class.
Austin Hedges is Cleveland's only free agent heading into the off-season. I don't expect the Guardians to show much if any interest in bringing him back… he's good behind the plate and handling a staff, but he always has and always will hit like a pitcher. They covered a transition period here by signing Luke Maile to a 2-year deal last winter to be the second catcher. They seemed happy with him behind the plate, and while he's not much of a threat at the plate, he still clears the low bar of being their best hitting catcher since Yan Gomes. Top catching prospect Bo Naylor got his feet wet in September and was a bench warmer during the playoffs. They like him behind the plate and he reinvented his approach at the plate this past year to become a guy who's going to get on base – probably at a rate well above your typical catcher – even if he's not hitting. I suspect the plan would be to begin 2023 with Naylor as the "day game after a night game" catcher and/or linked up as someone's personal catcher (and he has experience in the minors with some of their younger pitchers) and then he'll be given the opportunity to earn the bulk of the playing time. The Guardians will probably be happy with this setup and sign the next "Sandy Leon" to stash away in AAA in case the plan falls apart.
The team's biggest need is a right-handed bat with some power. I don't see any signs they will play with the big boys in free agency, but now would be the time to snag someone from the lower tier. The best fit would be someone in the 1B/RF/DH mix, platooning with Josh Naylor or rotating through the DH spot with Oscar Gonzalez. My guess would be someone who falls along the spectrum from Jesus Aguilar to Trey Mancini (maybe Josh Bell tanked his value enough in the 2nd half to drop into that tier?). The idea wouldn't be to lock up a middle of the order bat long-term, it would be to bring in someone on a short-term deal with a baseline high enough to fully replace the at-bats of Naylor or Gonzalez in a worst case scenario, but still someone who could be moved in a trade or to the bench in case those two continue to hit and George Valera is ready to join the Guardians by late summer. Ultimately, the most likely long-term outlook at this point seems to be Valera ascending to the right field job and Gonzalez becoming the DH.
The other sources for adding talent appear to be trading from their depth among middle infielders and major league ready starting pitching. I would be surprised to see Zach Plesac return, since the greatest benefit of Cleveland's pitching development machine is not needing to pay arbitration prices for starting pitching that isn't elite. I'm sure they'd like to lock up Bieber and McKenzie long-term and they'd be open to striking a deal with Quantrill, but guys like Plesac and Civale are completely fungible, so always pay the lowest price. Cody Morris seems to be at the top of heap of guys moving up from AAA, but should he fail, there's Pilkington, Battenfield, Curry, etc. right behind him. Plesac seems to have worn out his welcome with his repeated childish behavior and last year was a guy who always managed to find a way to lose. I'm not sure how much value he has in the trade market, I assume he'd probably be packaged with someone else interesting, but if they find no takers, I think he'd be a non-tender candidate.
I also think they have to seriously consider trading Amed Rosario. I completely changed my mind about Rosario over the past two years, and I think a swing-happy balls-to-the-wall guy who can be counted on to hit .280 is undervalued by modern metrics. However, he's entering his final year of arbitration and there are too many infielders on the minor league conveyor belt to consider keeping him long-term. Gabe Arias and Tyler Freeman probably both have more to lose than gain by spending another season in AAA. Then there's Brayan Rocchio and possibly even Jose Tena who could be MLB-ready by next August. I still think Andres Gimenez is probably best utilized as a shortstop, but he just grabbed the Gold Glove at second base, so he allows the flexibility of setting up the infield to best fit whoever the top candidate is to move into Cleveland's lineup. A Plesac and/or Rosario package that includes one of the middle infield or starting pitcher prospects would hopefully land the right-handed bat they need, but with more cost-control and upside than what they'd be willing to pay to someone from the free agent class.
It's disappointing to see Jones being shipped out after he was considered their #1 prospect just a couple of years ago, but it's also hard to see where he would fit on the team unless he got hot and remained hot enough to carry him as DH. He's redundant at first base with Josh Naylor and would also give them an all-lefty outfield. Aside from the first half of 2022, he's also been more projection than results. I could see him being one of those guys who puts up good numbers in Coors for a few years, but doesn't perform anywhere else. His raw power might translate to game play more there. He's also a really patient hitter, but with bad contact skills, so he'll walk a lot but strike out a lot more. It looks like he could move into their DH spot now or be an heir apparent to either Cron or Grichuk, but I think he'd struggle badly in the larger outfield there.
It's easy to see why the Rockies would want the higher rated prospect who's MLB ready, especially when Brito already needed to be rostered himself. He's another one of these young Latino players who has always performed well, but was signed so young that he's screwed over by the conditions of the Rule 5 draft. I don't know anything about him defensively, but considering he's been a really nice offensive weapon and only ranked #30 in the Rockies system, I'm going to assume he's a bit of a project in the field. Still, I'll take a 21-year-old switch-hitter who walks a lot – more than he strikes out – and shows developing pop along with defensive flexibility. Because Cleveland was aggressive about promoting the kids in the second half, they really didn't have any 40-man roster issues (I was surprised they even rostered Tim Herrin, a reliever with great BB/K numbers, but is 26 and struggled a bit in AAA), so Brito isn't really a problem on that end of things. However, since they now have three of these young middle infielders who had to be added when they were still a long way from the majors (Brito, Jose Tena and Angel Martinez), it seems apparent they're working on a deal that will ship out a young infielder or two. Those kids would have a much better chance of making it on a team like the Reds or Nats with multiple long-term infield spots open (although I'm not sure those are the teams that have something Cleveland wants).
It's easy to see why the Rockies would want the higher rated prospect who's MLB ready, especially when Brito already needed to be rostered himself. He's another one of these young Latino players who has always performed well, but was signed so young that he's screwed over by the conditions of the Rule 5 draft. I don't know anything about him defensively, but considering he's been a really nice offensive weapon and only ranked #30 in the Rockies system, I'm going to assume he's a bit of a project in the field. Still, I'll take a 21-year-old switch-hitter who walks a lot – more than he strikes out – and shows developing pop along with defensive flexibility. Because Cleveland was aggressive about promoting the kids in the second half, they really didn't have any 40-man roster issues (I was surprised they even rostered Tim Herrin, a reliever with great BB/K numbers, but is 26 and struggled a bit in AAA), so Brito isn't really a problem on that end of things. However, since they now have three of these young middle infielders who had to be added when they were still a long way from the majors (Brito, Jose Tena and Angel Martinez), it seems apparent they're working on a deal that will ship out a young infielder or two. Those kids would have a much better chance of making it on a team like the Reds or Nats with multiple long-term infield spots open (although I'm not sure those are the teams that have something Cleveland wants).
I have no complaints about the Josh Bell signing. I was expecting someone who more specifically fit the niche of a right-handed bat who could play one of the corners on the right side of the field while not standing in the way of developing players, but I was also expecting Paul Dolan to only pick up the tab for someone with less potential than Bell. They got the right-handed part along with a guy who will be in there every day batting from either side. He can split time between first base and DH, and the 2-year (or 1+1) deal isn't going to block anyone else's long-term development.
They needed a power right-handed bat and after the quick demise of Franmil Reyes, I expected them to avoid the JD Martinez DH-only types who become a black hole on the roster if they aren't hitting. Bell isn't a particularly good first baseman, but neither is Josh Naylor, so they can figure out what works best in the early season. I suspect the plan is that they both start against right-handers and Naylor sits against lefties with Gabriel Arias or someone else taking his spot in the lineup… Bell gives them the option of using whoever the best/hottest option is by opening up the DH spot.
Worst case scenario, Bell has a bad year and stays for a second year, but with the entire league pulling in so much revenue, even Dolan can suck up a bad 2-year/33M deal. If Bell has a good year and opts out, they'll at least have another year of data on Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez, plus the likelihood of George Valera breaking into the majors.
They really only had two things they absolutely needed to address this off-season and this was the biggest. Next up is acquiring a catcher… but replacing Hedges/Maile is a low bar to clear. I do think we'll see a significant trade before the start of the season, simply because of the logjam of MLB-ready middle infielders and starting pitchers, but they now have their needs addressed to the point that any trade could simply be for the best value they find available.
Also, "@%*$ off" to anyone who still thinks their team is going to poach Shane Bieber after Cleveland has clearly shown they're playing for another division title.
They needed a power right-handed bat and after the quick demise of Franmil Reyes, I expected them to avoid the JD Martinez DH-only types who become a black hole on the roster if they aren't hitting. Bell isn't a particularly good first baseman, but neither is Josh Naylor, so they can figure out what works best in the early season. I suspect the plan is that they both start against right-handers and Naylor sits against lefties with Gabriel Arias or someone else taking his spot in the lineup… Bell gives them the option of using whoever the best/hottest option is by opening up the DH spot.
Worst case scenario, Bell has a bad year and stays for a second year, but with the entire league pulling in so much revenue, even Dolan can suck up a bad 2-year/33M deal. If Bell has a good year and opts out, they'll at least have another year of data on Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez, plus the likelihood of George Valera breaking into the majors.
They really only had two things they absolutely needed to address this off-season and this was the biggest. Next up is acquiring a catcher… but replacing Hedges/Maile is a low bar to clear. I do think we'll see a significant trade before the start of the season, simply because of the logjam of MLB-ready middle infielders and starting pitchers, but they now have their needs addressed to the point that any trade could simply be for the best value they find available.
Also, "@%*$ off" to anyone who still thinks their team is going to poach Shane Bieber after Cleveland has clearly shown they're playing for another division title.
Last edited:
There seem to be 6-7 teams that have been in discussions with Christian Vazquez, but the front-runners appear to be the Padres and Guardians since they both present an opportunity to start on a team with playoff expectations. It sounds like something in the neighborhood of a 3 year/$27M deal might get it done. The Twins reportedly made him an offer this past week, but the crickets that followed would suggest they aren't a serious suitor.
Cleveland has also had trade discussions with Oakland for Sean Murphy going back at least to the trade deadline and likely last off-season. Obviously Oakland's asking price has been too high since they still have the guy who's been known to be on the trading block for the past year. There's no question he's a better hitter than Vazquez and likely better behind the plate going forward... but at what cost?
If the Guardians really want Murphy, he's theirs. They have the prospects to top any other offer out there. I believe Cleveland has refused to include Daniel Espino and George Valera... I'm less clear about Gavin Williams, but think they're standing pat and waiting the A's out. Personally, I'd rather spend money than prospects and just sign Vazquez. Murphy would add a legit offensive threat to the lineup, but a catcher's future is too unpredictable. Even without a catastrophic injury, their decline can happen rapidly. I'd prefer some sort of 2+1 contract with Vazquez, but at less than $10M/yr, he can give up the bulk of the games behind the plate in the 3rd year if Bo Naylor has earned them.
I think back to July 2016 when Cleveland had agreed with Milwaukee on all the pieces of a trade that would add Jonathan Lucroy to the heart of the Indians order for their pennant drive. Lucroy had a trade clause though and leveraged it to ridiculously try to get Cleveland to decline the remaining year of control they'd hold with a team option. The Indians wisely walked away from the deal. Lucroy was considered one of the top catchers in the game at the time, but within a couple of years he was happy to play for anyone who would take him. It would kill me to see a couple of former Guardians prospects excelling in Oakland if Murphy physically breaks down before the end of his 3 years before free agency.
Cleveland has also had trade discussions with Oakland for Sean Murphy going back at least to the trade deadline and likely last off-season. Obviously Oakland's asking price has been too high since they still have the guy who's been known to be on the trading block for the past year. There's no question he's a better hitter than Vazquez and likely better behind the plate going forward... but at what cost?
If the Guardians really want Murphy, he's theirs. They have the prospects to top any other offer out there. I believe Cleveland has refused to include Daniel Espino and George Valera... I'm less clear about Gavin Williams, but think they're standing pat and waiting the A's out. Personally, I'd rather spend money than prospects and just sign Vazquez. Murphy would add a legit offensive threat to the lineup, but a catcher's future is too unpredictable. Even without a catastrophic injury, their decline can happen rapidly. I'd prefer some sort of 2+1 contract with Vazquez, but at less than $10M/yr, he can give up the bulk of the games behind the plate in the 3rd year if Bo Naylor has earned them.
I think back to July 2016 when Cleveland had agreed with Milwaukee on all the pieces of a trade that would add Jonathan Lucroy to the heart of the Indians order for their pennant drive. Lucroy had a trade clause though and leveraged it to ridiculously try to get Cleveland to decline the remaining year of control they'd hold with a team option. The Indians wisely walked away from the deal. Lucroy was considered one of the top catchers in the game at the time, but within a couple of years he was happy to play for anyone who would take him. It would kill me to see a couple of former Guardians prospects excelling in Oakland if Murphy physically breaks down before the end of his 3 years before free agency.
Seems like the Twins likely returned with a better offer to Vazquez today… and at that point it was bordering on being too rich for my blood.
My top 3 realistic catching targets now would be (1) Danny Jansen, (2) Travis d'Arnaud or (3) Mike Zunino. I'm assuming Alejandro Kirk would cost even more in a trade than Murphy due to his age and the Jays 3rd catcher, Gabriel Moreno, doesn't make sense since he's basically at the same stage of his career as Naylor. If they can't get anyone at that talent level, just bring back Austin Hedges or Luke Maile – their defense and familiarity with the pitching staff would make them more valuable than whoever else would be left standing.
My top 3 realistic catching targets now would be (1) Danny Jansen, (2) Travis d'Arnaud or (3) Mike Zunino. I'm assuming Alejandro Kirk would cost even more in a trade than Murphy due to his age and the Jays 3rd catcher, Gabriel Moreno, doesn't make sense since he's basically at the same stage of his career as Naylor. If they can't get anyone at that talent level, just bring back Austin Hedges or Luke Maile – their defense and familiarity with the pitching staff would make them more valuable than whoever else would be left standing.
I think it would be crazy of TOR not to move one of those three if they think Moreno is ready, although of course it depends on getting back similar value and the return for Murphy is not promising in that direction.
Toronto might simply be performing due diligence in taking calls rather than actively shopping them, but they come up in just about every article regarding the current catchers market.