Guys, it’s late October. There is a chill in the air. There are basketball scrimmages happening at The Dunk Amica Mutual Pavillon, and quite frankly, Providence basketball is experiencing a renaissance. So of course I’m excited to start a new season thread.
This post is about the 2022-23 vintage, not an elegy for last year’s team. If you’re looking for the latter, there is a thread for that – it suffices to say that team and those kids meant and accomplished so much. Champions, one and all. Will there be a hangover from the program’s first Big East regular season title and the subsequent Sweet Sixteen run? I predict not. Ed Cooley signed another contract extension, which was not a certainty given the change in school leadership. He’s the exact right man for the job, and as fans, we should periodically remind ourselves how lucky we are to have him.
The Friars graduated virtually the entire core of last year’s historically great team. We bid farewell to fifth-year big man Nate Watson, four-year starter AJ Reeves, inside/outside threat Noah Horchler, as well as the fantastic grad transfer combo of Al Durham and Justin Minaya (keep an eye on Minaya, who showed well for the Hornets in NBA Summer League). And let’s not forget walk-on elder statesman Andrew Fonts, who drilled a critical 3 in the 19-point road comeback against Butler – had he not hit that shot, I genuinely believe the Friars would not have won the conference title. What a group.
Admittedly, for a few weeks in March and April, I was concerned we might be looking at a major setback. But doubts were quelled with another superb haul from the transfer portal. The replacements include former 4* recruits Bryce Hopkins (via Kentucky), Devin Carter (via South Carolina) and Corey Floyd, Jr. (via UConn) who each have 3 or more years of eligibility remaining. Plus, one-and-done transfers Noah Locke (via Louisville and before that Florida) and Clifton Moore (via LaSalle) as experienced reinforcements. They’ll be joined by HS commits Jayden Pierre and Quantee Berry, who I expect to serve as backcourt understudies, if not redshirts. Lest we forget about big man Rafael Castro, who redshirted last season and surely absorbed a lot from that veteran group, jostling with Watson in practice.
So what can we expect on the floor?
On paper, it’s a talented group, led by the fourth-year player Bynum, who earned Big East second team honors last season and is a pre-season first team selection. He will set the tone. (Bynum retains a year of COVID eligibility after this that he is unlikely to use.)
It will also be interesting to see Ed Croswell step outside the shadow of Nate Watson. Arguably, Croswell outplayed Watson at the end of last season, as a much better rebounder and defender. Croswell impressively changed his body last offseason, showing a lean strength and athleticism that allows him to be an imposing center, even at a listed height of 6-8 (he’s probably more like 6-5). The worry with Croswell has been mental lapses: Missing switches, dumb fouls, etc. He needs to keep his head in the game.
Noah Locke could lead this team in scoring. He took 199 shots beyond the arc last season, converting at 34%. If that nudges up to the 40-42% range that he shot in his SO and JR seasons at Florida, the offense will be cooking. He steps into the AJ Reeves roll, arguably as a better shooter, but not nearly the same level of defender.
Carter is a slasher, who takes the ball to the rim and took a lot of shots as a Freshman at South Carolina last season, though he’s not much of a 3-point threat. Paired with Bynum, we'll have dueling threats off-the-dribble. Hopkins is a strong kid who can pass and score from the high post -- I think we'll be viewing him as the best player on the roster going into the 2023-24 season.
If there is a risk, I think it’s that the starting lineup is awfully small. Bynum, of course, is undersized and limited as a defender; so is Locke. Croswell is a terrific defender, but he’s going to get in foul trouble against some of the larger bigs in conference play (Nunge at Xavier, Sanogo at UConn). Breed and Moore will level-up the size and defensive length when they’re swapped in, but they will lower the offensive ceiling.
***
KenPom has Providence at #57 nationally and 7th in the Big East. I’m a metrics guy and a fan of his work, but his projections have historically underrated the Friars, in part because under Ed Cooley they’ve won a lot more games than the shooting percentages would predict and have an uncanny ability to win close games. Last year, some called it luck.
The Big East coaches poll slotted the Friars at 5th in the conference. I think that’s about right: Creighton, Xavier and Nova are the upper crust in this year’s Big East, with UConn and Providence a half step behind, in my opinion.
The Friars will have the opportunity to earn a top 25 ranking early in the season, if they show well at the Mohegan Sun HoF Tipoff against Miami on Nov 19 (and then either Maryland or a very good St. Louis team). A Nov 30 trip to TCU is another resume opportunity. The annual matchup with URI, now coached by Archie Miller, will be at the Ryan Center on Dec 3 -- always a tough place to play, even if URI is rebuilding.
Big picture: I’m excited. This team is pretty good, and the program is as healthy as it has ever been.
This post is about the 2022-23 vintage, not an elegy for last year’s team. If you’re looking for the latter, there is a thread for that – it suffices to say that team and those kids meant and accomplished so much. Champions, one and all. Will there be a hangover from the program’s first Big East regular season title and the subsequent Sweet Sixteen run? I predict not. Ed Cooley signed another contract extension, which was not a certainty given the change in school leadership. He’s the exact right man for the job, and as fans, we should periodically remind ourselves how lucky we are to have him.
The Friars graduated virtually the entire core of last year’s historically great team. We bid farewell to fifth-year big man Nate Watson, four-year starter AJ Reeves, inside/outside threat Noah Horchler, as well as the fantastic grad transfer combo of Al Durham and Justin Minaya (keep an eye on Minaya, who showed well for the Hornets in NBA Summer League). And let’s not forget walk-on elder statesman Andrew Fonts, who drilled a critical 3 in the 19-point road comeback against Butler – had he not hit that shot, I genuinely believe the Friars would not have won the conference title. What a group.
Admittedly, for a few weeks in March and April, I was concerned we might be looking at a major setback. But doubts were quelled with another superb haul from the transfer portal. The replacements include former 4* recruits Bryce Hopkins (via Kentucky), Devin Carter (via South Carolina) and Corey Floyd, Jr. (via UConn) who each have 3 or more years of eligibility remaining. Plus, one-and-done transfers Noah Locke (via Louisville and before that Florida) and Clifton Moore (via LaSalle) as experienced reinforcements. They’ll be joined by HS commits Jayden Pierre and Quantee Berry, who I expect to serve as backcourt understudies, if not redshirts. Lest we forget about big man Rafael Castro, who redshirted last season and surely absorbed a lot from that veteran group, jostling with Watson in practice.
So what can we expect on the floor?
- Likely Starting Five: Jared Bynum, PG (rSR); Noah Locke, SG (GR); Devin Carter, Wing (SO); Bryce Hopkins, Wing/PF (SO); Ed Croswell, Big (GR)
- Key Bench Pieces: Alyn Breed, G (JR); Clifton Moore, Stretch/Big (GR); Corey Floyd, Jr., G (rFR); Rafael Castro, Big (rFR)
- Rounding Out: Jayden Pierre, G (FR); Quante Berry, G (FR); Kieran O’Haire, G/F (SO); Luke Fonts, G (SO); Scott Morozov, Wing (FR)
On paper, it’s a talented group, led by the fourth-year player Bynum, who earned Big East second team honors last season and is a pre-season first team selection. He will set the tone. (Bynum retains a year of COVID eligibility after this that he is unlikely to use.)
It will also be interesting to see Ed Croswell step outside the shadow of Nate Watson. Arguably, Croswell outplayed Watson at the end of last season, as a much better rebounder and defender. Croswell impressively changed his body last offseason, showing a lean strength and athleticism that allows him to be an imposing center, even at a listed height of 6-8 (he’s probably more like 6-5). The worry with Croswell has been mental lapses: Missing switches, dumb fouls, etc. He needs to keep his head in the game.
Noah Locke could lead this team in scoring. He took 199 shots beyond the arc last season, converting at 34%. If that nudges up to the 40-42% range that he shot in his SO and JR seasons at Florida, the offense will be cooking. He steps into the AJ Reeves roll, arguably as a better shooter, but not nearly the same level of defender.
Carter is a slasher, who takes the ball to the rim and took a lot of shots as a Freshman at South Carolina last season, though he’s not much of a 3-point threat. Paired with Bynum, we'll have dueling threats off-the-dribble. Hopkins is a strong kid who can pass and score from the high post -- I think we'll be viewing him as the best player on the roster going into the 2023-24 season.
If there is a risk, I think it’s that the starting lineup is awfully small. Bynum, of course, is undersized and limited as a defender; so is Locke. Croswell is a terrific defender, but he’s going to get in foul trouble against some of the larger bigs in conference play (Nunge at Xavier, Sanogo at UConn). Breed and Moore will level-up the size and defensive length when they’re swapped in, but they will lower the offensive ceiling.
***
KenPom has Providence at #57 nationally and 7th in the Big East. I’m a metrics guy and a fan of his work, but his projections have historically underrated the Friars, in part because under Ed Cooley they’ve won a lot more games than the shooting percentages would predict and have an uncanny ability to win close games. Last year, some called it luck.
The Big East coaches poll slotted the Friars at 5th in the conference. I think that’s about right: Creighton, Xavier and Nova are the upper crust in this year’s Big East, with UConn and Providence a half step behind, in my opinion.
The Friars will have the opportunity to earn a top 25 ranking early in the season, if they show well at the Mohegan Sun HoF Tipoff against Miami on Nov 19 (and then either Maryland or a very good St. Louis team). A Nov 30 trip to TCU is another resume opportunity. The annual matchup with URI, now coached by Archie Miller, will be at the Ryan Center on Dec 3 -- always a tough place to play, even if URI is rebuilding.
Big picture: I’m excited. This team is pretty good, and the program is as healthy as it has ever been.