2022-23 CFB Upset Alert Weekly Pick ‘Em Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Each week I’m going to post my 5 best “Upset Alerts” with point spread & money line listed in order of goodness. It’s college football with plenty of dogs barking so I’m going to try avoiding any team under a TD ‘dog while trying to keep them all double digits to get some juicy ML payouts. It’s safe to assume if I post a small ‘dog (like one this week) I feel they should be favored or at worse a Pk.

I’ll post these on Mon/Tues each week and there will obv be some line movement prior to Gametime. So jump on in and share 1, 2, or 17 of your upset picks for the week with me.

Week 1 - I hope it gets easier than this week to come up with 5 that I like to have shots to pull off the upset. I really like the first three that I already bet two weeks ago (bet point spreads with a sprinkle on the ML of the first two) but had to do some digging for the final two.

#1 - Miami-OH > Kentucky (-17) +500
#2 - Georgia St South Carolina (-12.5) +335
#3 - Boise St > Oregon St (-3) +120
#4 - Troy > Ole Miss (-21.5) +870
#5 - Cincinnati > Arkansas (-6.5) +205
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
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Oct 31, 2013
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South Dakota State +15.5, not sure what money line is yet, over Iowa

OL is the question for SDSU. If they get that patched, I’m optimistic

(I don’t gamble in reality though)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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South Dakota State +15.5, not sure what money line is yet, over Iowa

OL is the question for SDSU. If they get that patched, I’m optimistic

(I don’t gamble in reality though)
Probably around +475. I had them in my final tier along with Bowling Green. Those final two were like flipping coins for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Picked a great week to break out this thread with an 0-5 straight up. Big week for the chalks as double-digit favorites went 17-0 straight up and covered their number in 13 of those games. If you included the 23 “Added Games” on the screen the only straight-up double digit dog winner of these 41 games was Delaware beating Navy by a TD as a 13-pt dog.

We’ll try again next week. I promise it will be more competitive. I feel like Prairie View A&M visiting Alabama after this week.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Week 2 here we go!

Georgia State +7
South Alabama +5.5
UNLV +13
Baylor -+3
Washington St +17.5

First two are a couple of my Season Total Overs so getting them a mild upset in Week 2 would go a long way to getting my tickets cashed. UNC is so primed to go down. Don’t know why Baylor is getting points so even at 3 I’ll include them here. Let’s get a couple outrights so this dog train can begin to roll!!
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
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Oct 31, 2013
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Arkansas State +44.5 (spread)
Hawaii +51 (spread)
Pitt +190
Marshall +750
Kentucky +190
Southern Miss +25.5/+1000

Agreed on Baylor
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Arkansas State +44.5 (spread)
Hawaii +51 (spread)
Pitt +190
Marshall +750
Kentucky +190
Southern Miss +25.5/+1000

Agreed on Baylor
I have a few peanuts on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt at 43-1 (along w Georgia St @ 14-1) from earlier in the summer. I’ll be rooting for that upset on Sat.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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Here’s a couple plays I like:

Kansas +13.5 at West Virginia
I think Kansas is undervalued and the game script should favor both the underdog and the under, provided Kansas is able to establish the run

Iowa TT U21.5 (-120)
Look out for a potential QB change, but Iowa looks like hot garbage right now and I highly doubt their fail so OC can turn it around.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
25,121
Here’s a couple plays I like:

Kansas +13.5 at West Virginia
I think Kansas is undervalued and the game script should favor both the underdog and the under, provided Kansas is able to establish the run

Iowa TT U21.5 (-120)
Look out for a potential QB change, but Iowa looks like hot garbage right now and I highly doubt their fail so OC can turn it around.
Boom-Boom!!!!

I know someone else who was on Kansas too. Good stuff.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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Boom-Boom!!!!

I know someone else who was on Kansas too. Good stuff.
Good week for the SoSH syndicate all around!

Kansas might have been bad process, good result as it was 42-42 after regulation, but there was a reason I played a side and not a total.

On the other hand, Iowa was a no-doubter. Maybe paradoxically, I like going under extremely low totals and over extremely high ones. (e.g. commander-in-chief trophy games are on a crazy under trend dating back over a decade.) Brian Ferentz is legitimately the worst coordinator in major college football and he’s untouchable because he’s the coach’s son.
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
365
Crazy day yesterday but you guys were money. Hit enough in a round robin tailing have a nice day!

8 team x 3 round robin:

Wash St
Kentucky
Baylor
Kansas
UNLV
South Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Georgia State

Turned $98 into $528. Was a Baylor extra point from $950.

Well done!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
25,121
Crazy day yesterday but you guys were money. Hit enough in a round robin tailing have a nice day!

8 team x 3 round robin:

Wash St
Kentucky
Baylor
Kansas
UNLV
South Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Georgia State

Turned $98 into $528. Was a Baylor extra point from $950.

Well done!
Ahhhh, the ole 8x3 round robin parlay! Here I am, a fool, believing that I had seen every type of wager created by man.
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
365
Ahhhh, the ole 8x3 round robin parlay! Here I am, a fool, believing that I had seen every type of wager created by man.
Haha didn't say it was a good bet, however, without a college team I care about it kept my interest and excitement up all day!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Haha didn't say it was a good bet, however, without a college team I care about it kept my interest and excitement up all day!
We don’t have an NFL betting thread do we? We should probably create one catch-all either here or in the Port Cellar which seems to attract more degens lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Coming off a Week 2 with a couple straight up dog winners I’m feeling frisky and going long here. Big dogs barking baby!!

* Wyoming +15.5 (Friday night)
* Buffalo +14
* Kansas +9
* UTSA (Tex-San Antonio) +23.5
* Tulane +14.5

The general theme here is looking to fade a big chalk in an exhale spot versus a potentially feisty team. In each case here I think I’ll have the hungrier team with the better mental approach. Should be able to get another outright winner or two out of this bunch with 3-4 covering.

I have Kansas as one of the most undervalued teams in the country. I’m a huge fan of the Sun Belt this year I grade Coastal much worse than the market is thus far and a Buffalo win wouldn’t shock me at all. Texas is in a potentially volatile spot with a higher “lay an egg” outcome than usual.

Edit: Should mention one short dog I feel should be favored and that is SMU against Maryland….they may put up 50 against that defense.
 
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Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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Coming off a Week 2 with a couple straight up dog winners I’m feeling frisky and going long here. Big dogs barking baby!!

* Wyoming +15.5 (Friday night)
* Buffalo +14
* Kansas +9
* UTSA (Tex-San Antonio) +23.5
* Tulane +14.5

The general theme here is looking to fade a big chalk in an exhale spot versus a potentially feisty team. In each case here I think I’ll have the hungrier team with the better mental approach. Should be able to get another outright winner or two out of this bunch with 3-4 covering.

I have Kansas as one of the most undervalued teams in the country. I’m a huge fan of the Sun Belt this year I grade Coastal much worse than the market is thus far and a Buffalo win wouldn’t shock me at all. Texas is in a potentially volatile spot with a higher “lay an egg” outcome than usual.

Edit: Should mention one short dog I feel should be favored and that is SMU against Maryland….they may put up 50 against that defense.
If I had to pick a side, I'd be tailing all of your picks, except Wyoming. They haven't shown me anything and I don't trust them to stay in the margin, even in a low possession game. I would lean towards Air Force laying points or Wyoming TT under 15.5.

Agreed on undervaluing Kansas, as we discussed last week and Coastal is probably overvalued because the market doesn't look far enough past the Chadwell/McCall combo that had been very successful. I really like that UTSA point spread too. Tulane is in tossup territory for me.

My plays
Nevada 1st half team total under 4.5 (-135) at Iowa
I have one pick so far. I got this pick from a Twitter tip following up on last week's Iowa TT under that was never threatened. Nevada may actually have a worse offense than Iowa and just lost to FCS team
 

nolasoxfan

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Jun 11, 2004
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Coming off a Week 2 with a couple straight up dog winners I’m feeling frisky and going long here. Big dogs barking baby!!

* Wyoming +15.5 (Friday night)
* Buffalo +14
* Kansas +9
* UTSA (Tex-San Antonio) +23.5
* Tulane +14.5

The general theme here is looking to fade a big chalk in an exhale spot versus a potentially feisty team. In each case here I think I’ll have the hungrier team with the better mental approach. Should be able to get another outright winner or two out of this bunch with 3-4 covering.

I have Kansas as one of the most undervalued teams in the country. I’m a huge fan of the Sun Belt this year I grade Coastal much worse than the market is thus far and a Buffalo win wouldn’t shock me at all. Texas is in a potentially volatile spot with a higher “lay an egg” outcome than usual.

Edit: Should mention one short dog I feel should be favored and that is SMU against Maryland….they may put up 50 against that defense.
Roll Wave, ROLL!
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
31,512
Hingham, MA
If I had to pick a side, I'd be tailing all of your picks, except Wyoming. They haven't shown me anything and I don't trust them to stay in the margin, even in a low possession game. I would lean towards Air Force laying points or Wyoming TT under 15.5.

Agreed on undervaluing Kansas, as we discussed last week and Coastal is probably overvalued because the market doesn't look far enough past the Chadwell/McCall combo that had been very successful. I really like that UTSA point spread too. Tulane is in tossup territory for me.

My plays
Nevada 1st half team total under 4.5 (-135) at Iowa
I have one pick so far. I got this pick from a Twitter tip following up on last week's Iowa TT under that was never threatened. Nevada may actually have a worse offense than Iowa and just lost to FCS team
Iowa has scored 14 points total in 2 games and is currently listed as -23. WTF? I'm betting Nevada
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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Iowa has scored 14 points total in 2 games and is currently listed as -23. WTF? I'm betting Nevada
FCS Incarnate Word (123rd in Sagarin predictor) just hung 55 on Nevada. Can’t ever remember a three touchdown spread with a total in the thirties.

EDIT: changed Sagarin rankings to his forward-looking predictor number
 
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Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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If I had to pick a side, I'd be tailing all of your picks, except Wyoming. They haven't shown me anything and I don't trust them to stay in the margin, even in a low possession game. I would lean towards Air Force laying points or Wyoming TT under 15.5.

Agreed on undervaluing Kansas, as we discussed last week and Coastal is probably overvalued because the market doesn't look far enough past the Chadwell/McCall combo that had been very successful. I really like that UTSA point spread too. Tulane is in tossup territory for me.

My plays
Nevada 1st half team total under 4.5 (-135) at Iowa
I have one pick so far. I got this pick from a Twitter tip following up on last week's Iowa TT under that was never threatened. Nevada may actually have a worse offense than Iowa and just lost to FCS team
Alright, my second play is Buffalo +14 (-120), I don't love that extra juice, but I love the Bulls in this spot for the reasons above.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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For the record, the last one I left out was Bowling Green +16.5 which fits this weeks narrative with Marshall coming off the ND win complete with having to sleep in hallways until the next day due to their flights mechanical problems. If BG wasn’t so ungodly horrific I’d do much more than close my eyes and squint with a token play.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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If I had to pick a side, I'd be tailing all of your picks, except Wyoming. They haven't shown me anything and I don't trust them to stay in the margin, even in a low possession game. I would lean towards Air Force laying points or Wyoming TT under 15.5.
Wow, I was completely off on this.
 

Warning Track Speed

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Jul 20, 2005
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astride the divide
Buffalo has been fighting like hell all day but this one is now at risk. Coastal went up 24-19, then got a pick and just scored again, 31-19 with 12 minutes left. Buffalo needs a long scoring drive here. (Or should I say, their financial backers do.)
 

shawnrbu

Member
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Jul 14, 2005
34,946
The Land of Fist Pumps
Coming off a Week 2 with a couple straight up dog winners I’m feeling frisky and going long here. Big dogs barking baby!!

* Wyoming +15.5 (Friday night)
* Buffalo +14
* Kansas +9
* UTSA (Tex-San Antonio) +23.5
* Tulane +14.5
3-0 so far with two 14+ dogs winning outright. And Kansas is up 14 at Half. Wow.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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3-0 so far with two 14+ dogs winning outright. And Kansas is up 14 at Half. Wow.
5-0 ATS, including getting the win for @nolasoxfan with 3 straight up wins. Bowling Green was on-deck as well and SMU lost by a TD despite the 32-16 1st Down edge and +100 yards gained.

Insane day. I forgot to post to Twitter until later in the day and went 2-0 there with South Alabama and Troy. Btw, if you haven’t caught the Troy highlights I’ll quickly recap……..

QB killing clock in end zone and takes the safety with :07 to go. After receiving ball, App St throws an incompletion near the sideline that went right through a Troy defenders hands, :02 on the clock. Hail Mary is to the 5-yd line, Troy defender slaps it back to near the 10 where an App St player is circling behind, catches it in stride and goes around end for the game winning TD.

Edit- Doesn’t show the botched INT but this is still incredible. View: https://youtu.be/BXQ9g7rW0s4
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Hingham, MA
Somehow Iowa hit the under and covered with the 27-0 win!

FCS Incarnate Word (123rd in Sagarin predictor) just hung 55 on Nevada. Can’t ever remember a three touchdown spread with a total in the thirties.

EDIT: changed Sagarin rankings to his forward-looking predictor number
It's crazy, O/U is 39 as you mentioned. So it would have to be like 31-7 to hit the under and the spread.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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5-0 ATS, including getting the win for @nolasoxfan with 3 straight up wins. Bowling Green was on-deck as well and SMU lost by a TD despite the 32-16 1st Down edge and +100 yards gained.

Insane day. I forgot to post to Twitter until later in the day and went 2-0 there with South Alabama and Troy. Btw, if you haven’t caught the Troy highlights I’ll quickly recap……..
Another big week for HRB! I would have been a big winner if I had synthesized HRB's upsets with @Mloaf71's round robin strategy!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
25,121
Another big week for HRB! I would have been a big winner if I had synthesized HRB's upsets with @Mloaf71's round robin strategy!
Omg that’s right! Maybe I should pick 8 games for the round robin and call it, “The Meatloaf!” It’s crazy though, I could have easily picked from any group of 10-12 last week yet this week I may have trouble past the first two. I wish every week had a long slate of non-conference games……these are the big dog sweet spots.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Week 3:

I’m gonna have to find the last two later in week but I’ve got 3 today.

1. Duke +7.5 (over Kansas)
2. James Madison +7 (over App St)
3. Rutgers +7.5 (over Iowa)

Duke jumps off the page to me. Great spot for them with Kansas reading their press clippings all week and there is a real chance they are better on both sides of the ball. Kansas’ outrageous over performance on 3rd down will regress at some point. Suddenly lined as a favorite after two upset wins is a great spot to fade. I think Duke wins and possibly handily.

Insane 3 weeks for App State and now in a classic exhale game. I’ll take the TD in what should at worst be another close game.

The last one is a pure fade of Iowa laying more than a TD in a game whose Total is now down to 35.5 points. 20-14 final either way sounds about right.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Adding the final two “official” underdog picks.

4. Boston College +17.5
5. Virginia +9

Closer and closer to pushing BC up to yesterdays tier of games. FSU coming off two tough wins with games against 3 ranked teams coming up. Big look ahead spot and a good number for the added backdoor value. BC defense should keep this a relatively low scoring game and have had their eyes on this game for 2 weeks. Not sure how motivated FSU will be here and if it’s 16-10 late 3Q they could begin to press.

Virginia was basically a coin flip over two others to get a 5th game since we are looking for potential upset wins. I give them a better chance at they then Charlotte and UConn, two others I lean toward a cover.
 
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Senator Donut

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Apr 21, 2010
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Maybe paradoxically, I like going under extremely low totals and over extremely high ones.
Going to put this theory to the test. SI’s Richard Johnson said this about the trend before last year’s Iowa-Wisconsin game:

This game is among the lowest totals in the last decade. Only 16 totals have closed at 37 points or less since 2010 (nine of those have been 36.5 or less, which is where this total opened at some books), according to Covers.com.

Of the 16, only five have hit the over. Of the nine, only one hit the over. The lowest was Missouri-Vanderbilt in 2015, which closed at 34 and Vanderbilt won, 10-3.​

I sat on my hands for too long and could have got this at 35, but I’ll play under 34 (-110) in Iowa at Rutgers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Going to put this theory to the test. SI’s Richard Johnson said this about the trend before last year’s Iowa-Wisconsin game:

This game is among the lowest totals in the last decade. Only 16 totals have closed at 37 points or less since 2010 (nine of those have been 36.5 or less, which is where this total opened at some books), according to Covers.com.​
Of the 16, only five have hit the over. Of the nine, only one hit the over. The lowest was Missouri-Vanderbilt in 2015, which closed at 34 and Vanderbilt won, 10-3.​

I sat on my hands for too long and could have got this at 35, but I’ll play under 34 (-110) in Iowa at Rutgers.
This Under has been pounded after opening at 37 on Monday morning. I’ll look at games such as this for live-betting opportunities. If there are some early scores and it’s say 10-7 after the 1Q you can get something like 43 live while having the advantage of expected regression.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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This Under has been pounded after opening at 37 on Monday morning. I’ll look at games such as this for live-betting opportunities. If there are some early scores and it’s say 10-7 after the 1Q you can get something like 43 live while having the advantage of expected regression.
Good point on the live betting. I think it's a brilliant strategy for betting totals. The algorithms are a lot more refined than the early days, but you can still get some crazy numbers if the game starts a certain way.

You're also correct about my late timing. However, you can't buy a new OLED television with closing line value. I know placing bets as soon as the markets open on Sunday afternoon is the best strategy, but if you waited for it to get below five touchdowns like I did, you get to part of history! How many people can say they wagered under 34 and cashed?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Good point on the live betting. I think it's a brilliant strategy for betting totals. The algorithms are a lot more refined than the early days, but you can still get some crazy numbers if the game starts a certain way.

You're also correct about my late timing. However, you can't buy a new OLED television with closing line value. I know placing bets as soon as the markets open on Sunday afternoon is the best strategy, but if you waited for it to get below five touchdowns like I did, you get to part of history! How many people can say they wagered under 34 and cashed?
This isn’t about money….it’s about making HISTORY!! Lol. Yeah by the time the totals were posted on PPH accounts that 37 was long gone. 35.5 was the highest I saw Monday around noon. FL F’d up legalized sports betting so bad in being greedy trying to align with the Seminole Tribe while alienating the parimutuel owners when anyone paying attention knew it would never pass the legal hurdle. I could rant for 250k words on this one ugh.

Edit: I was able to snag the Jaguars +9.5, albeit at low limits, on Sunday as Herbert was clearly laboring so the PPH still make plenty of mistakes.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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My other play is another steam-chaser Maryland at Michigan (-17) -110 which dumb me should have got at 16.5 (no history at stake here). Michigan has held off during its cupcake OOC schedule. They held an open QB competition during games and ran a vanilla run-heavy offense. I think they’ve actually underperformed in their results so far.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
25,121
Coming off a 2-3 week with just one outright. Virginia heartbreak cost a win as a nice dog and Duke repeatedly choosing to kick a PAT rather than going for 2 in the 2nd half had me biting my pillow.

I’m going to hold off for a day or two with so many uncertain weather conditions across the country potentially affecting games. Generally speaking, weather (esp. high wind) helps equal the playing field and can expose one teams weakness while playing to the others strength. I’ll probably wait things out until Thurs once we get within 48 hours. I will say that some Unders have been absolutely pounded in anticipation of weather and high winds. Keep an eye in particular on Chapel Hill. If we see improved weather forecasted (lesser wind) you’ll want to jump on that Over 51 before it’s bet back up toward the 58 opener. Nowadays you’re almost never going to get ahead of weather-based line moves however you CAN take advantage of the overreactions and steam chasers following them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Week 4:

1. California +4 over Washington St

Plummer should have a field day against Wash St’s god awful secondary who also may be looking ahead to next weeks USC game. Line should be flipped imo.

2. Colorado +17.5 over Arizona

Arizona can’t stop the run and if they get caught down in the 1H I have little confidence in deLaura not making a big gaffe when coming from behind. Good spot for the Wildcats to be caught sleeping too with Colorado shortening the game.

3. Texas Tech +7.5 over Kansas St

Fading the Wildcats off a huge win and getting more than a TD for doing so. Sign me up. TT can win this game but at worst should be competitive.

4. Georgia Southern +9.5 over Coastal Carolina

I got +10 on the Coastal fade but think they can win this game. I’m not yet convinced that Coastal isn’t a big drop off since last year.

5. UL-Lafayette +9 over South Alabama

ULL has killed themselves as one of the highest penalized teams in the country this year. It’s a huge game for them so I expect better focus. They can move the ball and getting into the mid-20’s should at least get them a cover.
 

Senator Donut

post-Domer
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Apr 21, 2010
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My two plays

Alabama at Arkansas (+17)
Alabama has underachieved on the road and Arkansas seems undervalued after last week

NC State Clemson Over 45.5
Actually got this at 44.5 but I still like it over the key number of 45

Honorable mention Louisville -13.5 at BC
Was hoping to get this under two touchdowns