121 to 137 for us. they say they're 210 for non-STH so we get a break at least but man, it's getting pricey. And then there's the playoff strips...
2022-23 Bruins Season
- Thread starter cshea
- Start date
Post-deadline look at the playoff field from Dom.
View: https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1633114600135639041?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
View: https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1633114600135639041?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw
Back in the early 90's I split some season tickets that were 4th row on the blue line, equivalent to Loge 13 now. Cost was $40 per ticket. Ahh, the good old days.
As a Sox STH I feel everyone's pain at getting the invoice for the next year but I will say I'm jealous at the season ticket percentage discount you guys get.
I guess that % is even higher when they work in the dynamic pricing. You want a Loge ticket through ticketmaster (non-resale) for 3/21 vs the Sens?
I laid down a whopping $5 in September at 14:1 for the Bruins to win the Eastern Conference.
Wishing now I wasn't such a cheapo/pessimist.
Would love to get some of the bigger guys rested during this 5 game trip, since it'll be that much harder to get Providence callups on the roster with $2.2m of $2.375m in LTIR space going away once the Foligno/Hall swap happens
B's have been bouncing Lauko around the past few days. Up Saturday, down yesterday, up today.
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1635317386105741312?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1635317386105741312?s=20
I really like this guy:
(montgomery on the team's post-clinch lull)
(montgomery on the team's post-clinch lull)
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/03/16/sports/clinching-playoff-spot-so-early-may-have-caused-bruins-relax-bit/
Bruins chasing career highs down the stretch (15 games left):
- Pastrnak needs 3 goals/4 assists/6 points to set career highs in all 3 categories. Career highs: 48-47-95.
- Zacha has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 18 goals, 29 assists, 47 points.
- Lindholm has career highs in assists (35) and points (44), bit would need 5 goals in the last 15 games to set a new mark.
- McAvoy could set a career high in assists with 9 in the final 15 games - possible. His current carrer high is 46. He could set a career high in goals with 6 in the final 15 games - a longshot.
- Debrusk need 5 points in the final 15 games to set a career high - his current high is 43 points. Goals (8) and assists (9) would be unlikely but possible.
- Frederic has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 15 goals, 11assists, 26 points.
- Grzelcyk needs 2 goals/2 assists/2 points to set career highs in all 3 categories. Career highs: 5, 20, and 24.
- Clifton has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points.
- Orlov needs 3 assists and 3 points to set career highs in both categories. Current career highs: 13 goals (unreachable), 27 assists, and 33 points.
- Forbort has a career high in goals (5).
I forgot to add:
Linus Ullmark has career highs in games played (42), minutes played (2,469), wins (34), saves (1,171)... and goals (1)
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Linus Ullmark has career highs in games played (42), minutes played (2,469), wins (34), saves (1,171)... and goals (1)
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Updated a couple after last night's destruction of a good Wild team on their home ice.
This edition is now tied for 5th among Bruins teams for regular season wins (52), matching the 1974 Cup finalists. They are one regular season win from matching the 2009 team (a really fun team that was truly the start of this era), 2 from tying the 2014 and 1972 teams, and 5 from matching the all time franchise record set by the 1971 team. The regular season was 78 games in the early 1970's, so technically would need to win 5 of the next 10 to match the team record without any asterisk (ignoring the various T/OT/OL/shootout complications).
This doesn't really add much, but at the start of Sway's postgame interview, a hand holding a buffalo wing pops into view, asking him if he was going to finish this. He takes a bite, and you see it's Ullmark, offering blue cheese. Sway says says "I love that guy" and all I can think of how much I love this team on and off the ice. I'm trying to find the video
edit: it was put up, watch it, don't read the spoiled
edit: it was put up, watch it, don't read the spoiled
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He was Santa for Ullmark’s kids so they have a special relationship. Goalies are fucking weird. These are no different.
Hey man, I had a 6 winter stretch of over 100 games each in net and I'm perfectly normal! Now let me go back to eating dried, uncooked pasta in peace.
We all post on a semi-anonymous message board so none of us are normal. You being a goalie that does so, well…
I can say that because my brother is a goalie and our relationship is, um, interesting.
I can say that because my brother is a goalie and our relationship is, um, interesting.
Some of these got some work today. DeBrusk had 4 points today alone.
Both Lindholm and McAvoy made these metrics look more possible.
Especially if you communicate with your brother anonymously, on a message board.
Lindholm’s 10th today gave the team 11 skaters (10 forwards and 1 defenseman) with 10 or more goals. Great spread of offense across the team.
Curious to see if we get any injury updates on Hall or Foligno today. It's been about 3.5 weeks since their injuries occurred. If the goal is to get them back for the beginning of the playoffs, they probably need to start getting on the ice sometime in the next week or two.
Hall is participating in the morning skate with the team. No contact.
View: https://twitter.com/FlutoShinzawa/status/1638192967726030848?s=20
We'll see if Monty gives any sort of timeline but this would suggest he has a chance to return before the end of the regular season. One potential issue is that they probably don't have many actual practices left so checking the contact box off may take a little longer. The schedule is basically 4 games a week, with each Saturday and Sunday being a back to back the rest of the way.
View: https://twitter.com/FlutoShinzawa/status/1638192967726030848?s=20
We'll see if Monty gives any sort of timeline but this would suggest he has a chance to return before the end of the regular season. One potential issue is that they probably don't have many actual practices left so checking the contact box off may take a little longer. The schedule is basically 4 games a week, with each Saturday and Sunday being a back to back the rest of the way.
The thought of adding Taylor Hall to this roster is kind of nuts, let alone getting Foligno back for the fourth line. One thing is certain, when the inevitable playoff injuries crop up, we are not going to be seeing guys from Providence with no experience on the ice. They can go 9 deep on defense if they need to, and they’re running 15 deep up front. It’s hard to not be excited about this spring.
View: https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1638205067042930689?s=20
Like we’ve all been saying - depth, and mitigation of injuries is going to be what makes or breaks this season.
Like we’ve all been saying - depth, and mitigation of injuries is going to be what makes or breaks this season.
If all are healthy, I think I would try this:
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Bertuzzi - Krejci - Pastrnak
Hall - Coyle - Zacha
Frederic - Nosek - Hathaway
Lauko - Foligno - Greer
I think conventional wisdom is put Bertuzzi on the 3rd line with Hall and Coyle but that's kind of loading up on guys who like to pass. I think Bertuzzi would be great with Pasta on the other wing. In 20 minutes together so far they have combined for a 16-7 scoring chance advantage. The Czech line's actual results are great, they are outscoring opponents 32-14, but the underlyings are still really bad, only a 46% xGF% and sub 50% in shots, scoring chances and high danger chances. Monty has shrugged and said you can live with it because they are so talented that if they trade chances with whoever is out against them odds are they'll finish more frequently. So far that is true but I'd rather avoid finding out if the regression is coming in the post season. Now is the time to tinker and find out if you can get an awesome line with awesome underlyings.
I think I'd leave Nosek in over Foligno. Nosek is 2nd on the team in PK TOI per game among forwards. That's a hard thing to replace, and Foligno does not kill penalties. If you take Nosek out you have to redistribute the PK TOI elsewhere and I don't think you want to over burden Marchand and Bergeron on the penalty kill in the post season thus reducing their impact at 5x5 or on the PP. Foligno was a mainstay as the net front guy for the 2nd PP but I'm not too worried about that. He's kind of displaced by Bertuzzi, and I don't think there's really a fit for him. Plus, the 2nd PP gets the scraps. Additionally, Nosek is 58% at the dot. He's their 2nd best faceoff guy behind Bergeron at 60%. That is valuable for specific situations, especially since he's a left and the other 3 retular centers are right handed.
PP1: McAvoy, Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, DeBrusk
PP2: Lindholm/Orlov, Hall, Krejci, Bertuzzi, Coyle
I don't think he'll factor into the playoff lineup if they are healthy, but I would like to see Lauko get into as many of the last 11 ganes as possible. He does some really good things out there. He's drawing 3.12 penalties per 60 which leads the team by far, Marchand is 2nd at 2.34. His points per 60 are also up there with the top line. Obviously the sample size is very small but as we rotate guys in and out I think he should stay in the lineup as much as possible and see if there's a drop off or if he can continue on this pace.
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Bertuzzi - Krejci - Pastrnak
Hall - Coyle - Zacha
Frederic - Nosek - Hathaway
Lauko - Foligno - Greer
I think conventional wisdom is put Bertuzzi on the 3rd line with Hall and Coyle but that's kind of loading up on guys who like to pass. I think Bertuzzi would be great with Pasta on the other wing. In 20 minutes together so far they have combined for a 16-7 scoring chance advantage. The Czech line's actual results are great, they are outscoring opponents 32-14, but the underlyings are still really bad, only a 46% xGF% and sub 50% in shots, scoring chances and high danger chances. Monty has shrugged and said you can live with it because they are so talented that if they trade chances with whoever is out against them odds are they'll finish more frequently. So far that is true but I'd rather avoid finding out if the regression is coming in the post season. Now is the time to tinker and find out if you can get an awesome line with awesome underlyings.
I think I'd leave Nosek in over Foligno. Nosek is 2nd on the team in PK TOI per game among forwards. That's a hard thing to replace, and Foligno does not kill penalties. If you take Nosek out you have to redistribute the PK TOI elsewhere and I don't think you want to over burden Marchand and Bergeron on the penalty kill in the post season thus reducing their impact at 5x5 or on the PP. Foligno was a mainstay as the net front guy for the 2nd PP but I'm not too worried about that. He's kind of displaced by Bertuzzi, and I don't think there's really a fit for him. Plus, the 2nd PP gets the scraps. Additionally, Nosek is 58% at the dot. He's their 2nd best faceoff guy behind Bergeron at 60%. That is valuable for specific situations, especially since he's a left and the other 3 retular centers are right handed.
PP1: McAvoy, Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, DeBrusk
PP2: Lindholm/Orlov, Hall, Krejci, Bertuzzi, Coyle
I don't think he'll factor into the playoff lineup if they are healthy, but I would like to see Lauko get into as many of the last 11 ganes as possible. He does some really good things out there. He's drawing 3.12 penalties per 60 which leads the team by far, Marchand is 2nd at 2.34. His points per 60 are also up there with the top line. Obviously the sample size is very small but as we rotate guys in and out I think he should stay in the lineup as much as possible and see if there's a drop off or if he can continue on this pace.
Also, if Forbort is done for the regular season, moving him to LTIR would plausibly allow them to activate both Hall and Foligno before the end of the regular season if they are ready.
I'm a little leery of Hall's condition, so I hope he's able to get some regular season ice. I can't find it now, but I thought for sure I read comments from Hall (or someone equally in the know) soon after he got hurt that suggested his injury was one that *could* require surgery, but that he was foregoing it. (I hope I'm mixing up my injured NHLers, as I'm not sure Hall at 75% is an improvement over the alternatives.).
Don't have much to add except I wholeheartedly endorse everything here. I don't think Foligno cracks the lineup if everyone is healthy, Nosek is actually much more valuable in his role than most give him credit for, and I love putting Bertuzzi with Krejci and Pasta.
10/10, no notes.
Curious how the defensive lines will shake out:
Lot of versatility here, plenty of configurations can work, but for playoff pairings I'm thinking:
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelcyk - Carlo
Orlov - Clifton
Though I'm a bit weary that Grz-Carlo will wilt under a heavy forecheck, but at the same time Grz and Clifton together has had some pretty bad results so far this season. I think conventional wisdom says to maximize the minutes of the two best defensemen (Lindholm and McAvoy), fill as much remaining with Orlov-Carlo, sheltering Grz-Clifton as much as possible. I also really like the idea of always having one of Lindholm, McAvoy and Orlov out on the ice:
Grzelcyk - McAvoy
Orlov - Carlo
Lindholm - Clifton
I'm really not sure. Maybe the correct answer is to make the pairings very situational?
Lot of versatility here, plenty of configurations can work, but for playoff pairings I'm thinking:
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelcyk - Carlo
Orlov - Clifton
Though I'm a bit weary that Grz-Carlo will wilt under a heavy forecheck, but at the same time Grz and Clifton together has had some pretty bad results so far this season. I think conventional wisdom says to maximize the minutes of the two best defensemen (Lindholm and McAvoy), fill as much remaining with Orlov-Carlo, sheltering Grz-Clifton as much as possible. I also really like the idea of always having one of Lindholm, McAvoy and Orlov out on the ice:
Grzelcyk - McAvoy
Orlov - Carlo
Lindholm - Clifton
I'm really not sure. Maybe the correct answer is to make the pairings very situational?
I think the bolded is key, but with a slight difference (potentially?) in how it's implemented. i.e., start with your second setup that keeps one of Mac, Lindy, and Orlov on the ice at all times, and then shorten the bench and maximize pairings for O or D as game state dictates.
Even without Forbort they have Zboril, Reilly and Stralman as depth D. You really can’t do much better.
Bruins are currently at 113 points, 47 RW, 52 ROW.
Leafs max out at 117 points, 47 RW, 53 ROW. So one regulation win plus any other two points will do it, or any 5 points.
For President's Trophy or East #1 seed, the Canes max out at 126 points, 47 RW, 55 ROW. So one regulation win plus any 11 points, or 4 overtime wins plus 5 other points, or any 14 points.
Bruins chasing career highs down the stretch (12 games left):
- Pastrnak needs 1 goal/3 assists/3 points to set career highs in all 3 categories. Career highs: 48-47-95.
- Zacha has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 18 goals, 30 assists, 48 points.
- Lindholm has career highs in assists (38) and points (48), bit would need 4 goals in the last 12 games to set a new mark.
- McAvoy could set a career high in assists with 8 in the final 12 games - possible. His current carrer high is 46. He could set a career high in goals with 6 in the final 12 games - a longshot.
- Debrusk has a career high in points with 45 despite all the games he has missed. Career highs in Goals (he needs 5) and assists (he needs 6) would be unlikely but possible.
- Frederic has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 16 goals, 12 assists, 28 points.
- Grzelcyk needs 2 goals/2 assists/2 points to set career highs in all 3 categories. Career highs: 5, 20, and 24.
- Clifton has set new career highs in all 3 categories with 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points.
- Orlov needs 3 assists and 5 points to set career highs in both categories. Current career highs: 12 goals (unreachable), 27 assists, and 35 points.
- Forbort has a career high in goals (5).
- Bergeron has an outside shot at a career high in goals - he would need 7 over the final 12 games.
Remaining Schedule
3/23 vs. Montreal
3/25 vs. Tampa
3/26 @ Carolina
3/28 vs. Nashville
3/30 vs. Columbus
4/1 @ Pittsburgh
4/2 @ St. Louis
4/6 vs. Toronto
4/8 @ New Jersey
4/9 @ Philly
4/11 vs. Washington
4/13 @ Montreal
They will probably lock up the Atlantic in the next 2-3 games (magic number is 4 points gained by Boston or lost by Toronto). It'll probably take another 5-6 to lock up the President's Trophy (magic number is 13 points gained by Boston or lost by Carolina).
Resting the guys for the playoffs is somewhat challenging due to cap constraints and call up restrictions. The cap is probably less of a cocern now than it was. They have Hall on LTIR plus Foligno and Forbort as candidates to be put there to open up more room. The call up rule is probably more problematic, they are only allowed 4 callups from the AHL. They have an extra F right now with Greer being the odd man out, and Zboril is an extra on D. They can use those two players to pull guys out like they did on Sunday with Krejci and Orlov. They don't have much flexibility beyond that. I think they will likely play through the St. Louis game in a BAU mode and then see what they can do for the final 2 weeks and 4 games to get the core group rested and ready for round 1.
3/23 vs. Montreal
3/25 vs. Tampa
3/26 @ Carolina
3/28 vs. Nashville
3/30 vs. Columbus
4/1 @ Pittsburgh
4/2 @ St. Louis
4/6 vs. Toronto
4/8 @ New Jersey
4/9 @ Philly
4/11 vs. Washington
4/13 @ Montreal
They will probably lock up the Atlantic in the next 2-3 games (magic number is 4 points gained by Boston or lost by Toronto). It'll probably take another 5-6 to lock up the President's Trophy (magic number is 13 points gained by Boston or lost by Carolina).
Resting the guys for the playoffs is somewhat challenging due to cap constraints and call up restrictions. The cap is probably less of a cocern now than it was. They have Hall on LTIR plus Foligno and Forbort as candidates to be put there to open up more room. The call up rule is probably more problematic, they are only allowed 4 callups from the AHL. They have an extra F right now with Greer being the odd man out, and Zboril is an extra on D. They can use those two players to pull guys out like they did on Sunday with Krejci and Orlov. They don't have much flexibility beyond that. I think they will likely play through the St. Louis game in a BAU mode and then see what they can do for the final 2 weeks and 4 games to get the core group rested and ready for round 1.
Anothing thing I've considered for a few years now is rotating goalies in the playoffs. As it stands, Ullmark and Swayman have essentially been alternating games. The last time either played two in a row was Ullmark on 2/16 and 2/18. Is there any reason not to keep alternating them? It depends on where you look but essentially both of them are top 10 goalies right now. In all situations, NST has Ullmark as the top goalie by goals saved above expected. Swayman is 10th.
The conventional wisdom is to pick a guy and go but I don't really see a reason to stop doing one of the things that has made both guys so successful this season.
The conventional wisdom is to pick a guy and go but I don't really see a reason to stop doing one of the things that has made both guys so successful this season.
My Boston sports group text thread has been going back and forth on this for awhile. What about, instead of a straight up rotation, they announce something like "no matter what*, Swayman is starting games 3 & 5 of each series." I threw the * in there because obviously they dont have to stick to it, but I like the idea of an actual plan as opposed to winging it. And I just can't envision them straight up alternating.
I am not sure if opponents plan differently against different goalies, I assume there are some adjustments that might be made. But maybe those adjustments can be done on the fly (”he’s weakest high on the glove side”) which would negate my theory
This is a great question. I also wonder if shifting the workload to 100% would negatively impact Ullmark too. Probably not, but it's a variable that doesn't exist now. I think I'm in favor of this approach, and would guess that Ullmark and Swayman are the right duo to do it with.
What a good problem to have. "Both are goalies are playing too well to sit."
Edit: I guess Fluto wrote about this a month ago and Montgomery said he doesn't anticipate a rotation.
https://theathletic.com/4309452/2023/03/15/bruins-playoffs-goalie-rotation/
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