2022-2023 General Celtics thread

Jimbodandy

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Changing gears slightly, I was legitimately shocked that Horford won not one but two jump balls against Davis in the closing minutes of the game. The first after the successful Celtics challenge with 87 seconds left in regulation, and the second at the start of overtime. Davis has a 5 inch edge in wingspan, is 7 years younger and has always been far bouncier. Underrated plays by Al (and more disappearance from Davis) to give the Celtics two extra crunch time possessions.
He was probably worried about spraining his ferndock jumping for the ball, and I can't say that I blame him.


The thing about the LeBron drive at the end of regulation that no one is talking about for some dumb reason, is that everyone knows that refs don't blow the whistle in that situation unless it is particularly egregious. There's a reason why everyone shoots jumpshots at the end of games, and that reason is because refs swallow their whistles in that situation. We even have a term for it!

The foul was undeniable, but Tatum didn't grab LeBron's arm, no one took out his legs, no one hit his head, etc. It should have been called, and no one would have complained about that specific call had they called it, but it's also not very far from a call where everyone would be whining about the refs deciding the game instead of letting it go to OT.
Yeah calls like this are often non-calls. When it's a superstar like arguable goat Lebron, it's called most of the time even in a last shot scenario. Stars get star treatment even in this spot. Your observation is a good one though. Guys get mauled at the buzzer in tie games a lot without shooting FTs.


FWIW, I thought that the refs in this game were super spotty overall don't see how fans of either team can feel personally aggrieved about this. I fall back to the idea that a team can grind out better possessions among the hundred or so possessions that they get over the course of a game and control the MF outcome if they want to take it out of the hands of officials. Just assume that there were be a dozen stupid calls because the game is super fast, these are world class athletes, and shit happens. If the league did an honest, non-CYA, 2-minute report but did it for all 53 minutes of that game, who knows how many points change hands? It doesn't just come down to one play though, and anyone who thinks so is probably a crybaby.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Changing gears slightly, I was legitimately shocked that Horford won not one but two jump balls against Davis in the closing minutes of the game. The first after the successful Celtics challenge with 87 seconds left in regulation, and the second at the start of overtime. Davis has a 5 inch edge in wingspan, is 7 years younger and has always been far bouncier. Underrated plays by Al (and more disappearance from Davis) to give the Celtics two extra crunch time possessions.
I know I noticed this too. I’d still say the most inconsistent call is to whistle when a player steals the tap which Horford craftily did against Davis. They probably need to be done with the jump ball and go alternating possession.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Haven't you made the exact argument that @themuddychicken makes in the post above when folks have complained about these calls going the other way against the Celtics in the final seconds of games? That refs swallow their whistles in these situations and that you can't rely on getting to the free throw line in this situation? What makes this so different? That it's particularly egregious, to your mind? Or that it's LeBron?
Oh they absolutely swallow whistles or at least would like to swallow them. Take the late hit on Mahomes yesterday…..the official 100% HATED to throw that flag but 100% had to throw it as Mahomes had not one but TWO feet out of bounds prior to the shove. I feel the same way about the LeBron call as it was THAT blatant so while I do understand with why they want to let the players finish the game there are some calls that you simply have to blow the whistle on and that one imo was one of them.
 

themuddychicken

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Oh they absolutely swallow whistles or at least would like to swallow them. Take the late hit on Mahomes yesterday…..the official 100% HATED to throw that flag but 100% had to throw it as Mahomes had not one but TWO feet out of bounds prior to the shove. I feel the same way about the LeBron call as it was THAT blatant so while I do understand with why they want to let the players finish the game there are some calls that you simply have to blow the whistle on and that one imo was one of them.
I completely agree with you on the penalty at the end of the Chiefs game yesterday, it was blatant the refs had to call it. I blame the stupid defender for hitting a guy with two feet out of bounds.

I disagree with you on the LeBron play, and I gave 3 examples in my earlier post of what egregious fouls there would look like (grab the arm, undercut his legs, hit his head). Tatum did not just graze his arm - it was legitimate contact that prevented the shot from even having a chance of going in. But it didn't look egregious, like Mahomes crashing out of bounds did.
 

Just a bit outside

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I know I noticed this too. I’d still say the most inconsistent call is to whistle when a player steals the tap which Horford craftily did against Davis. They probably need to be done with the jump ball and go alternating possession.
It really seems like they stopped calling it this year. I feel like I see it frequently but haven’t seen it called this year.
 

128

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I completely agree with you on the penalty at the end of the Chiefs game yesterday, it was blatant the refs had to call it. I blame the stupid defender for hitting a guy with two feet out of bounds.

I disagree with you on the LeBron play, and I gave 3 examples in my earlier post of what egregious fouls there would look like (grab the arm, undercut his legs, hit his head). Tatum did not just graze his arm - it was legitimate contact that prevented the shot from even having a chance of going in. But it didn't look egregious, like Mahomes crashing out of bounds did.
One hundred percent. LeBron is so freaking strong that in real time the severity of Tatum's foul wasn't apparent, because it didn't really appear to affect LeBron. It's not like Tatum knocked LeBron's arm to his side. In slow motion, though, it became crystal clear.
 

Five Cent Head

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3. You’re assuming that casual Celtics fans booing from far away distances indicate that the ref missed a call? We should try to implement this over replay at home games. :)

4. I don’t know how the clear and immediate recovery rule is applied in the NBA but Tatum didn’t immediately recover the ball…..he reached and slapped it away then retrieved it. Yes, he was going to ultimately gather the ball if there was no whistle but once he slapped the ball away I can see how the ball would have needed to be gathered prior to when he did to satisfy the rule. Also, this wasn’t listed as a missed call on the 2-min report so per the rule they likely got it right.
Regarding the very last sentence, my impression from reading the two minute reports is that, if there was a coach’s challenge and subsequent video review, the league just accepts that as correct in its report. (I’m not disagreeing with your interpretation of the rule, though.)
 

benhogan

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One hundred percent. LeBron is so freaking strong that in real time the severity of Tatum's foul wasn't apparent, because it didn't really appear to affect LeBron. It's not like Tatum knocked LeBron's arm to his side. In slow motion, though, it became crystal clear.
Yep. Lebron doesn't attend Embiid's School of Drama to his detriment. Bron clearly got fouled there.

But I guess we are supposed to pretend:
1. Bron doesn't take 3-steps after he gathers on that play (as he has throughout his career)
2. Bron would have needed to hit an FT. That isn't a guarantee. In Bron's 20yrs he has never been as good as Jaylen Brown is from the FT line this season. Missing 2 FTs isn't out of the question :mad:
3. The Lakers should have never put themselves in that position. Fouling on a 2pt attempt, with 4 seconds left, and up 3 is moronic.
4. Jaylen didn't get BS calls earlier in the game, which forced him to the bench.

I get the need for some to play devil's advocate around here. It gives the board balance and encourages discussion. BUT expecting a whistle with less than a second left is always a dicey proposition, hence the expression Refs swallowing their whistles at the end of games.
 
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the moops

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Marcus Smart would have been perfect for those KG teams in the pre-Warriors era. You put him in that Avery Bradley spot and they knock off the Heat in 2012.
A little unfair to say replacing 21 year old Avery Bradley who was making only 1.5 million with 28 year old defensive player of the year Marcus Smart who is making 15 million.

If we put 21 year old Smart on the team the results are no different
 

bellowthecat

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The Avery Bradley spot against the Heat was the end of the bench in street clothes after he separated his shoulder in the second round. That made two years in a row the Celtics were down a man in the backcourt against the Heat. Oh what could have been...

But yeah, I could see even 21 year old Marcus moving the needle in what was a tight 7 game series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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TL will play regular minutes tonight and we’ll do “whatever we’ve got to do to win.”
- Joe Mazzulla

I wanna be here tonight when game goes 3OT with Tatum, Jaylen and TL each logging 50+ minutes.
 

nighthob

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Given that the Achilles heel of that team ended up being Perk's health, I'd vote for TimeLord.
Sure, but turn Marcus loose on Kobe and Mr Bean shoots 7/148 for the series. Plus, just imagine the amount of squished lemon Pau Gasol face we’d’ve got from Marcus defending him.
 

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TL will play regular minutes tonight and we’ll do “whatever we’ve got to do to win.”
- Joe Mazzulla

I wanna be here tonight when game goes 3OT with Tatum, Jaylen and TL each logging 50+ minutes.
Looks like it sorta went the other way. Well, except for the whatever it takes to win part.

60730
 

lovegtm

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I just came up with an awesome strategy for how to get Tatum rest during the playoffs! :p
The funny thing is, they had a ton of these blowouts down the stretch last year, and he still wore down in the playoffs.
 

joe dokes

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The funny thing is, they had a ton of these blowouts down the stretch last year, and he still wore down in the playoffs.
I'm not sure how to go about figuring it out, but I've always wondered whether longer term endurance (like not "wearing down" in the playoffs) is better achieved by fewer MPG or fewer games.
 

lovegtm

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I'm not sure how to go about figuring it out, but I've always wondered whether longer term endurance (like not "wearing down" in the playoffs) is better achieved by fewer MPG or fewer games.
I think MPG might be overrated, and even raw minutes probably tells you less than a lot of other things. There's so much variance in how those minutes are played by different players.

There's also probably a mental fatigue thing, "how hard did you have to focus in that time", where long stretches of sustained focus start to drain you. I think that's what the Celtics are talking about when they say they started 18-21 last year and had to go pedal-to-the-metal the rest of the way. They were playing fewer MPG in a lot of cases due to blowouts, and they rested lots of guys on B2Bs late. But they had to really grind mentally and stay locked in for 5 months straight, and that has to be draining.

I imagine the 15-16 Warriors suffered something a bit similar.
 

chilidawg

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I'm not sure how to go about figuring it out, but I've always wondered whether longer term endurance (like not "wearing down" in the playoffs) is better achieved by fewer MPG or fewer games.
My guess would be that it didn't have as much to do with the regular season as it did the Miami/Milwaukee series which were both tough 7 game sets. Tatum averaged 41 minutes a game in those 2 series. Horford btw played 37 and 39 mpg in those series, and averaged over 10 rebounds a game.
 

kfoss99

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It's a shame Westbrook seems to be the front runner for Sixth Man of the Year, just because he plays for the Lakers and was a good sport about moving to the bench.

Ask anyone involved with the Lakers if they'd prefer Brogdon over Westbrook.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm not sure how to go about figuring it out, but I've always wondered whether longer term endurance (like not "wearing down" in the playoffs) is better achieved by fewer MPG or fewer games.
Obligatory reminder also that Tatum spent the summer of 2021 training for and participating in the Tokyo Olympics.

I still say a big part of the problem in the 2022 Finals was that the Celtics bench was less than useless and got badly outplayed, a problem that was exacerbated by Robert Williams being a shell of himself. Tatum was indeed worn down, but also had to put the team on his back due to the Warriors depth. Hopefully, the 2023 White remains better than the late 2022 White and Brogdon is better than 2022 Pritchard; both seem safe assumptions.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think MPG might be overrated, and even raw minutes probably tells you less than a lot of other things. There's so much variance in how those minutes are played by different players.

There's also probably a mental fatigue thing, "how hard did you have to focus in that time", where long stretches of sustained focus start to drain you. I think that's what the Celtics are talking about when they say they started 18-21 last year and had to go pedal-to-the-metal the rest of the way. They were playing fewer MPG in a lot of cases due to blowouts, and they rested lots of guys on B2Bs late. But they had to really grind mentally and stay locked in for 5 months straight, and that has to be draining.

I imagine the 15-16 Warriors suffered something a bit similar.
Yes, there's something to this. Those series were draining, similar to how Toronto took a ton out of the team before Miami finished us off in the bubble. The intensity matters as much/more than the quantity.

What we don't know is if a smaller workload throughout the season, ramping up for the playoffs, would help. I'd like to see them try.

Malcolm Brogdon never changes his game face when he is on the floor, so I was amazed to see this picture on Boston.com this morning. Then again the game vs. the Nets was a laugher.

View attachment 60742
This was probably right after the towel guy incident, which was pretty awesome.
 

CreightonGubanich

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That was a fun win. Obviously they shot the lights out from three, and when you do that, you usually win, but it wasn't just a good shooting luck game. They came out from the tip playing with pace, attacking the rim aggressively, swarming defensively...all the things you need to do to unlock those open three point shots. It was a clear, "we're not messing around" game, which, anecdotally, it feels like they have a hard time with when Smart is out of the lineup. Not last night. Interesting too that this season they've actually played better on less rest, where last night the fresh legs seemed very apparent.
 

benhogan

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It's a shame Westbrook seems to be the front runner for Sixth Man of the Year, just because he plays for the Lakers and was a good sport about moving to the bench.

Ask anyone involved with the Lakers if they'd prefer Brogdon over Westbrook.
I just threw up in my mouth with the thought of Westbrook on the Celtics vs. Brogdon :eek:

If you're a present-day Russ apologist save it, the dude has turned into a net negative for several seasons now due to past glories, ego, salary, shooting, not evolving, etc. Coming off the bench against 2nd stringers & still putting together a negative On-Off & +/- tells me more than his hollow counting/triple slash #s.

Plays hard but he's been fully cratering.
 

bosockboy

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My guess would be that it didn't have as much to do with the regular season as it did the Miami/Milwaukee series which were both tough 7 game sets. Tatum averaged 41 minutes a game in those 2 series. Horford btw played 37 and 39 mpg in those series, and averaged over 10 rebounds a game.
Agree, which shows the importance of taking care of close out games. Going back to Miami really took a piece out of them.
 

InstaFace

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I'm not sure how to go about figuring it out, but I've always wondered whether longer term endurance (like not "wearing down" in the playoffs) is better achieved by fewer MPG or fewer games.
How to figure it out analytically? Yeah, the target variable here feels impossible to quantify - how do we flag situations where someone "wore out"? Are we comparing 4th quarter performance relative to 1Q-3Q baseline? Later-playoff games (When your opponents are better and everyone is more worn out) to earlier? There's a million confounding variables.

But qualitatively, I think it stands to reason that you want your stars:

- To be able to shoulder a playoff load of minutes, which in all sports requires stretching them out to practice doing so (like training for a marathon)
- To allow their niggling injuries to heal, which means more days off and more games off
- To start the playoffs well-rested

I think all of that strongly suggests "fewer games" over "fewer MPG". Which Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich could've told you years ago, because they've been putting their stars in street clothes without regard for what the league or TV partners think of it for years.
 

lovegtm

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Yes, there's something to this. Those series were draining, similar to how Toronto took a ton out of the team before Miami finished us off in the bubble. The intensity matters as much/more than the quantity.

What we don't know is if a smaller workload throughout the season, ramping up for the playoffs, would help. I'd like to see them try.



This was probably right after the towel guy incident, which was pretty awesome.
Totally agree re those 2 series being tough, but I was talking about the fact that the team had to lock in mentally, HARD, for 40+ regular season games to close it out last year, even when they could take some minutes off in blowouts.

They all seem to point to that intensity as a factor in wearing down more than you'd expect as the playoffs went on.
 

InstaFace

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That was a fun win. Obviously they shot the lights out from three, and when you do that, you usually win, but it wasn't just a good shooting luck game. They came out from the tip playing with pace, attacking the rim aggressively, swarming defensively...all the things you need to do to unlock those open three point shots. It was a clear, "we're not messing around" game, which, anecdotally, it feels like they have a hard time with when Smart is out of the lineup. Not last night. Interesting too that this season they've actually played better on less rest, where last night the fresh legs seemed very apparent.
Yeah the best part of the game was the defense. Our rotations were crisp, our rebounding was sublime, we didn't really foul, and it felt like nearly every bucket the Nets had to take was low percentage. Like, sure, they had a few dunks, and a couple open 3s, but the frequency of them was way down from other games. And because of good process and effort, not just luck of the bounce. I hardly ever saw someone space out and miss their guy on coverage, switches were well-communicated, cuts got picked up. It wasn't the greatest defensive game this group has ever played (like, we only got 5 turnovers, only had 1 blocked shot although I think they should've credited Al on one), but it showed the kind of focus and communication that was an every-game thing last spring, and hasn't been in evidence as often this year. So I thought that was really encouraging.

Sure, the Nets were missing, ya know, Kevin fucking Durant, among others including Simmons... but good defense doesn't take games off, and we got reps doing things the right way last night. Without Smart, too. The halftime score was 79-45, and maybe I'm a weirdo but I appreciated the 45 more than I did the 79. The Celtics won every quarter by at least 4, and gave up 16 - 29 - 27 - 24.
 

joe dokes

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I think all of that strongly suggests "fewer games" over "fewer MPG". Which Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich could've told you years ago, because they've been putting their stars in street clothes without regard for what the league or TV partners think of it for years.
That's my intuitive sense as well. As I'm not really on top of basketball analytics, just kind of fishing around for whether there's anything to support the intuitions.
 

lovegtm

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I think all of that strongly suggests "fewer games" over "fewer MPG". Which Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich could've told you years ago, because they've been putting their stars in street clothes without regard for what the league or TV partners think of it for years.
Also in the "stuff Kerr believes" bucket: I'm pretty confident that the Warriors decided internally that the grindset required to hit 73-9 hurt them against the Thunder and Cavs, and never tried to do that again, even when the team upgraded to Durant.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Totally agree re those 2 series being tough, but I was talking about the fact that the team had to lock in mentally, HARD, for 40+ regular season games to close it out last year, even when they could take some minutes off in blowouts.

They all seem to point to that intensity as a factor in wearing down more than you'd expect as the playoffs went on.
So I went back and locked at JT's game logs from last year.

From 3.28.22, when he sat against TOR because the 2nd night of a B2B to 5.01.22, when they began the MIL series, JT played in exactly 10 games. That's 10 games in 34 days. Better yet, because several games were blowouts and the BRK series was not too taxing, JT only played in (approximately) 330 minutes during those 34 days.

By comparison, there were 31 days between the start of the MIL series and the start of the GSW series. During those 31 days, he played (as we all know) 14 games and logged over 526 minutes.

It's hard to imagine JT getting any less work down the stretch and still be sharp for BRK. In addition, I don't think JT has ever said much about this but I believe that he either suffered or greatly exacerbated some injuries during MIL and MIA that really affected his play in the Finals.
 

Red Right Ankle

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How to figure it out analytically? Yeah, the target variable here feels impossible to quantify - how do we flag situations where someone "wore out"? Are we comparing 4th quarter performance relative to 1Q-3Q baseline? Later-playoff games (When your opponents are better and everyone is more worn out) to earlier? There's a million confounding variables.

But qualitatively, I think it stands to reason that you want your stars:

- To be able to shoulder a playoff load of minutes, which in all sports requires stretching them out to practice doing so (like training for a marathon)
- To allow their niggling injuries to heal, which means more days off and more games off
- To start the playoffs well-rested

I think all of that strongly suggests "fewer games" over "fewer MPG". Which Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich could've told you years ago, because they've been putting their stars in street clothes without regard for what the league or TV partners think of it for years.
Someone talked about the importance of off-days to weightlifters upthread and I think that's a great analogy. The constant wear and tear of working out every day takes a higher toll on your body, even if you end up lifting the same total weight (weight x reps) in the end. Your body simply never fully recovers and that affects performance and propensity for injury.

Getting to a season average of 30 minutes a game by playing 30 minutes in every game is probably worse than getting a few games off a month but playing 35-40 minutes in the ones you play.

That said, by the time the GSW series came around, JT's right shoulder was clearly injured (and he had a non-displaced fracture in his wrist that he said would be painful when contacted), so it's impossible to tease out what about his play was fatigue-related and what was injury-related.

In other words, we might be posting a lot of words on fatigue when the real problem was that the dude had multiple arm parts that were just broke.
 

kfoss99

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I just threw up in my mouth with the thought of Westbrook on the Celtics vs. Brogdon :eek:

If you're a present-day Russ apologist save it, the dude has turned into a net negative for several seasons now due to past glories, ego, salary, shooting, not evolving, etc. Coming off the bench against 2nd stringers & still putting together a negative On-Off & +/- tells me more than his hollow counting/triple slash #s.

Plays hard but he's been fully cratering.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. Or, more likely, I'm a bad writer. Brogdon is a far better player and more deserving of Sixth Man of the Year. His stats prove it out. And even simpler, ask a Laker fan, coach, or executive if they'd prefer Brogdon on their team instead of Russ.

But there seems to be a Russ redemption narrative because he didn't complain about taking the bench roll and he's improved slightly from the beginning of the year.

Man, I want nothing to do with Russ! I was a Brogdon fan when he was with the Pacers and was psyched when the C's signed him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The funny thing is, they had a ton of these blowouts down the stretch last year, and he still wore down in the playoffs.
Or maybe they didn’t? ;)

So first it was Tatum who was worn down and now it was the entire team? First it was regular season minutes then the Bucks and Heat series?

When exactly did the Celtics hit the wall in The Finals from the Bucks and Heat series…..because it surely wasn’t in the double digit wins in Games 1 & 3. Using the fatigue excuse in losing to Curry and playing poorly at the end of the series is kinda lame from my seat. You can have bad games, not rise to the moment in front of you, or lose to Steph Freakin Curry without it being caused by fatigue.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Totally agree re those 2 series being tough, but I was talking about the fact that the team had to lock in mentally, HARD, for 40+ regular season games to close it out last year, even when they could take some minutes off in blowouts.

They all seem to point to that intensity as a factor in wearing down more than you'd expect as the playoffs went on.
Yeah that's important.

I agree that the intensity is a huge part of it, more so than just minutes. Kinda focused on the straw that broke the camel's back, but they all add up. They did burn a lot of powder righting the ship last year even before the playoffs started.

Fwiw, I don't think that this year is the same at all. But I still think that being an outlier in high minutes is possibly a bad idea. Not all minutes are the same though. Fantastic point.
 

InstaFace

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Scal had an even better bit about that guy. I dunno if I can clip it from the VOD, but it was quality commentator content worthy of the Remy and Orsillo glory days.
 

Just a bit outside

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Or maybe they didn’t? ;)

So first it was Tatum who was worn down and now it was the entire team? First it was regular season minutes then the Bucks and Heat series?

When exactly did the Celtics hit the wall in The Finals from the Bucks and Heat series…..because it surely wasn’t in the double digit wins in Games 1 & 3. Using the fatigue excuse in losing to Curry and playing poorly at the end of the series is kinda lame from my seat. You can have bad games, not rise to the moment in front of you, or lose to Steph Freakin Curry without it being caused by fatigue.
Tatum and Stevens could be making excuses but they are both quoted talking about Tatum and/or the team being fatigued in the finals.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-jayson-tatum-says-fatigue-in-2022-nba-finals-inspired-him-to-change-his-diet-cut-out-fried-food/

This is from Stevens.

https://theathletic.com/3376949/2022/06/22/celtics-nba-finals-brad-stevens/

“When you start off 18-21, you’ve gotta fight, scratch and claw to get into the playoffs, get into the seeds, get home court … you’ve gotta do all that stuff, and there’s no margin for error,” said Stevens. “And as a result, you play a lot of minutes on the way. We’ve gotta start better next year. So, adding people that add to our group is, again, the major focus, however we do that.”
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Scal had an even better bit about that guy. I dunno if I can clip it from the VOD, but it was quality commentator content worthy of the Remy and Orsillo glory days.
Thanks. I just went to listened to it. The neatest bit is that the guy - whose nickname I heard to be "Ocho" (but maybe someone else heard differently) is a "baller" and with whom Scal has played pickup. Who knew?