2022-2023 General Celtics thread
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
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Also, the Nuggets lost to the Rockets (!) by 21 (!!) with Jokic playing (!!!).
Celtics lose the tiebreaker to Denver, but have a magic number of 2 to clinch homecourt against them, and the Nuggets play the Suns, Jazz, and Kings.
5 days off before the playoffs, so I imagine the Celtics play it straight up here and try to win 2 of 3, unless/until Denver drops one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tatum play against the Raptors tonight.
Celtics lose the tiebreaker to Denver, but have a magic number of 2 to clinch homecourt against them, and the Nuggets play the Suns, Jazz, and Kings.
5 days off before the playoffs, so I imagine the Celtics play it straight up here and try to win 2 of 3, unless/until Denver drops one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tatum play against the Raptors tonight.
Ideally, the C's would win tonite and then be able to survey the landscape heading into the final two regular-season games.
Harden shouldn’t even be out there playing on one leg like that. He was having a great year prior to his Achilles/calf flaring up but this version isn’t going to pose a threat. Embiid’s looks will be much more difficult with TL in the lineup so him shooting 80% over Grant or at the rim isn’t meaningful when we are at full strength.
Our greatest enemy is our health…..in particular, TL’s health. This team is so freakin loaded going into these playoffs.
Do we even need Time Lord for a Sixers series? My feeling is let Embiid get his on offense and then make him chase around Grant Williams and Horford on defense. There aren't a lot of other Sixers players pressuring the rim with Harden in this state. Shrink wrap him for the Bucks series and the finals
If Mazzulla went with Blake instead of Kornet, who was horrible, Boston probably wins.
If Boston has to play Grant on Embiid for big minutes, and they don’t pull Embiid out of the paint to cover either AL or Grant from three, their offensive scheme is off. Blake showed in the previous Philly game that he could threaten Embiid from three. Joel is always going to score. The idea is to make him play defense out on the floor to tire him out, with pick/rolls and ball movement.
TL, at free safety, will help challenged those wide-open Corner3s from PJ and is the perfect help defender at the rim.
Grant is solid against Giannis at the nail, since he makes him shoot jumpers.
Embiid OTOH has kind of figured out Grant's schtick, instead of backing Grant down (and getting doubled when he dribbles), he just buries uncontested 12' (86% FT shooter) jumpers over him. That's a quality look for Joel without much wear-n-tear. Blake and Horford up on Joel can at least challenge those jumpers, make him work harder & still have TL help at the rim. Joel will get his points, but if they make him work for them it will pay dividends in Q4/a long playoff series.
Yeah, it just feels like Maxey is completely ineffective in this matchup, so I don't know where else the Sixers are getting points in a seven game series. Joel can score 40 points a game on mid-range jumpers and it wouldn't really matter if Harden doesn't show up.
Only point is, I just don't think Time Lord is necessary if these teams make it to the semifinals. I'd rather limit his exposure to rogue elbows and uncontrolled flopping from Embiid. I can easily envision that 7'2" body just happening to fall on Time Lord's knee during a frustrating fourth quarter.
I didn't think the C's challenged the ball getting to embiid as hard as they could have. It wasn't a free entry, but not as contested as I expect it to be in the playoffs. There could be a bit more deny if there is someone willing to met Joel at the rim... I also felt there could have been a bit more deny last night even without rob, and wondered if they were keeping that in their bag of surprises.
They were super vanilla in general, probably because they're locked into a Philly matchup if both teams advance in round 1.
In addition to the inevitable 2nd round matchup with Philly, this was a game they needed more than us (losing the season series 1-3 is far better than 0-4) and we're playing again today. Interesting to look at the games this year in which Embiid has played the most minutes, if you exclude OT games than 3 of the top 5 games for him in terms of minutes played were against Boston.
Ahhh, the "Yabusele Effect"
I was always overly concerned that Yabu would bowling ball right into the back of one of the JAYs pins.
Things look pretty good now. Magic number is 1 to get homecourt over Denver, so the Cs can rest whomever they want the rest of the way.
Obviously Miami in Round 1 would be annoying, but I'd rather play Philly than Cleveland, especially with Harden looking so rough.
It was a bumpy regular season with some weird stretches, but it ended right about where the Cs would have wanted, all things considered. Particularly since Rob looks super athletic again.
Obviously Miami in Round 1 would be annoying, but I'd rather play Philly than Cleveland, especially with Harden looking so rough.
It was a bumpy regular season with some weird stretches, but it ended right about where the Cs would have wanted, all things considered. Particularly since Rob looks super athletic again.
Yep. Should they have been a 60 win team? Probably. But no one is going to remember the regular season if they put up a banner.
Right, and besides losing homecourt against Milwaukee, there won't be consequences to being a 55-56 win team, as opposed to a 60 win one. (It's not even a given that Miami will be the 1st round opponent). I guess if you really are scared of Philly and not Cleveland, but I feel the opposite.
I agree however anything less than a banner is going to be a significant disappointment but that die was cast before the season started. Even a 70+ win season does not guarantee a championship. There is a lot of pressure on this Celtics team this postseason. They have a deep veteran squad with a lot of playoff experience and I think, health permitting, they are up for the challenge.
The Celtics will know whether they've clinched homecourt against the Nuggets by late tonight, but not before the team flies to Toronto.
Do you think they'll rest everyone if Denver loses to Phoenix, or do a preseason-type hard half before shutting things down? Hard for me to see them going all-out to win with the starters if it's clinched.
Do you think they'll rest everyone if Denver loses to Phoenix, or do a preseason-type hard half before shutting things down? Hard for me to see them going all-out to win with the starters if it's clinched.
Isn't the game vs Toronto in Boston? Just a guess but I think you would see the starters, if fully healthy, play a regular rotation to start the game for the first handful of minutes and then the bench to take over for the rest of the way. The Celtics finish the regular season on April 9 and the first round of the playoffs starts on April 15. I think Mazulla will want to keep the guys game ready and will give a handful of minutes for the starters against Toronto on April 7. I will not be surprised if none of the starters get any playing time in the season finale against Atlanta on April 9.
Yeah, this is a team that could easily be out early in the playoffs. The West feels like a complete crapshoot whereas the East feels like the Bucks/Celtics/Sixers invitational.
I’m disappointed they couldn’t get the 1 because it really is banner or bust this season, especially as health is currently lining up.
And I do think a game 7 in Milwaukee is a 50/50 probability or better. I’m not “worried” about it, but every edge helps. I can talk myself into it not “mattering,” but I still was rooting hard for it.
I hope we at least get a quarter of JD now. He’s really fun to watch.
And I do think a game 7 in Milwaukee is a 50/50 probability or better. I’m not “worried” about it, but every edge helps. I can talk myself into it not “mattering,” but I still was rooting hard for it.
I hope we at least get a quarter of JD now. He’s really fun to watch.
As much as the term “favorite” is thrown around I’m hearing many friends saying things like “We should win” or “Mazzulla should be fired if we don’t win.”
Let’s keep in mind that we are still nearly 4-1 to win the Championship and have to navigate a ton of land mines to get through this thing. We are much more likely to not win it than we are to win it. We will still need a lot of breaks/variance to go our way for a couple months.
Yes I fully agree. That's why they play the games. And while I will be disappointed if they don't come out on top it also won't be a surprise. In any case, the playoffs will be a lot of fun. The 82 game slog has nearly come to an end and the real season is just about to begin.
I'm not sure why a game 7 in Milwaukee would matter when the clinching game is going to be in Boston
This feels a lot like the Red Sox in ‘04 after coming so close in ‘03 to me. Let’s hope we aren’t ever down 0-3 in a series though.
I like your analogy. And if the Celtics do go down 0-3 in a series we probably won't be here to talk about it because the game thread angst will cause the Port Cellar server to melt down.
Here's a little different spin on where we are: is there any team in the league whose seeding, health, rotation is better situated right now? To me, Milwaukee is the only one you'd even have to think about. Middleton has gotten better, but he is critical and a bigger health Q than even TL right now....though one can argue Mil vs Bos situation either way.
Big picture, to get through 80 games and have the 1st or 2nd best situation heading into playoffs is a great thing...doesn't guarantee anything, but no complaints from me.
Honestly, I'm not sure the Lakers aren't third on that list much as I hate them. They are healthiest they've been all year, deeper than they started, and playing really well. They aren't the third best team, but their current situation is the high point all year for them which is good timing
Big picture, to get through 80 games and have the 1st or 2nd best situation heading into playoffs is a great thing...doesn't guarantee anything, but no complaints from me.
Honestly, I'm not sure the Lakers aren't third on that list much as I hate them. They are healthiest they've been all year, deeper than they started, and playing really well. They aren't the third best team, but their current situation is the high point all year for them which is good timing
With TL jumping out of the building again, and Tatum seeming to be over his nagging injuries, I don't think anyone is better off healthwise.
The Bucks are also healthy, but they're less talented, outside of Giannis.
I don’t think you can ever make a blanket statement like “MAzzulla should be fired if we don’t win” but if they do lose it will be interesting to see how much his coaching plays into it.
Personally, outside of health, MAzzulla is my biggest worry about the team and it’s mostly due to his inexperience
Middleton is getting healthier but he’s still not back to what he was, especially defensively. In a 7 game series that’s the type of thing that can be hunted and exploited and the Celtics are very equipped to do that with the Jays
Good point.
Another spin (this one was from Lowe's podcast): is there another team that can in as many different ways as BOS? BOS can go big and be effective on both ends. It can go small and shoot people out of the gym. It can win with defense. It can win with passing.
Hopefully this will be a fun post-season to watch.
Yeah I'm very happy with our path to the Finals as long as we avoid Miami in R1. Miami and Cleveland match up with us the worst of all Eastern Conference teams. I think we stunt on Philly. And whoever makes the ECF has been playing really well in the playoffs by definition, so there's no getting around that.
The main goal is to minimize the number of minutes we need to deploy the Full Time Lord in earlier rounds. Don't want to get too cute with that and lose a game we should've won, but Rob has looked 90%+ to me the last week or so so I am super excited to suddenly have opposing starters forced to reckon with him for 30'+ per game.
I’m just not worried about Miami, they cannot shoot the ball, have a negative net rating/point differential. It may be last seasons team on paper, but I think we’d roll them in 5.
Looking more closely, basically all of their role players have regressed shooting the ball. Here are their outside shooters and their 3 point percentages, last year / this year, outside of their big 3 of Butler/Bam/Herro:
Strus: .410 / .347
Martin: .413 / .362
Vincent: .368 / .340
Lowry: .377 / .341
Oladipo: .417 / .309
Robinson: .372 / .335
There are some SSS issues here, but it's pretty remarkable to see literally every role player shoot solidly worse from 3 this year. That's how an offense drops from 10th to 25th, even when the main guys are as good as ever.
My only worry with the Heat is that they play dirty and there's a much higher chance of coming out of a Heat series with Timelord and Jayson hobbled.
I've been saying it for months, but if the C's remain healthy and shoot the ball well in the playoffs, they win the championship. It's really that simple. If they shoot 40% from 3 in 4 games each series, they win each series. If they drop a few 25% shooting games from deep, they'll have issues.
Outside of that, the only thing that's worrying me is Coach Joe's closing lineups. That Smart/Brogdon/White situation is scary, and if he doesn't at least go offense/defense with his remaining timeouts in a late, close game (and we know he'll have timeouts left to do it), I'll throw some shit around my house.
Outside of that, the only thing that's worrying me is Coach Joe's closing lineups. That Smart/Brogdon/White situation is scary, and if he doesn't at least go offense/defense with his remaining timeouts in a late, close game (and we know he'll have timeouts left to do it), I'll throw some shit around my house.
What is the offense/defense we want to see?
Offense - White, Brogdon, Jaylen, Tatum, Al? Or one of White/Brogdon and Hauser?
Defense - Smart, White/Grant, Jaylen, Tatum, Timelord?
Obviously, it'll depend on the matchup for defense more than offense, IMO.
But on offense, I want to see as much of White, Brogdon, Jaylen and Tatum as possible and then TL/Al depending on matchup.
On defense, I want Smart, Jaylen, Tatum without a doubt, and then 2 of White/Grant/TL depending on matchup.