That’s all I could make out too (tho Gorman made the reference to the 2020 election first before Scal said that). I’m p. liberal and I didn’t really hear anything “worrisome” or to get worked up about there.
2022-2023 General Celtics thread
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
- Start date
Please share the most stats models you are referring to.
From what I can see so far this season he is ahead of the prior three seasons in aggregate in FG%, FT% and per 36 rebounds. He is slightly down this season in 3P% and about the same as the prior three years in per 36 assists.
His usage is up this season relative to the prior three as is his TS.
His per 36 turnovers are up this season however that is largely due to increased usage.
I don't have access to LEBRON or DARKO however I would be surprised if either of those show him worse this year than the prior three.
Brown is currently at or equal to career highs for a lot of basic offensive metrics. Specifically his TS and rebound rate/rebounds are at career highs and his shooting data tell you he is a lot more efficient than in the past inside the arc.
Even setting aside last night's game, the eye test suggests he is leveling up a bit. As everyone knows, the advanced stats tend to return messy results with smaller sample sizes so maybe Jaylen's improvement isn't yet being reflected - or maybe you/others are right and we are interpreting variance for improvement. The trend on Darko suggests otherwise but its certainly not settled imo.
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Yea this just seemed like an attempt to make a joke. It fell kinda flat, but it didn't come across as something that he actually believed happened
We're going to find out what life is like without Jaylen tonight
I suspect we won't like it. He basically made Jaxson Hayes a rag doll last night
I suspect we won't like it. He basically made Jaxson Hayes a rag doll last night
Absolutely. Hope it didn't seem like I was ragging on him. He's a walking bucket, even if he's never been good at finding other guys.
I get on JB's defense but it's been better. NBA Centers are pinballing off him when he gets downhill.
He's trending to 3rd team All-NBA if he can stay healthy
Philly and Milwaukee losing, combined with beating the Nets creates a little space at the top of the East. Up 3 now.
Offensive fouls count as turnovers, and Jaylen has gotten called for a ton of them. Frankly, I've got no problem with that, I want Jaylen being aggressive, as he's an all world scorer, but I'm curious if there are any stats out there quantifying the type of turnover (ie. travel/stripped vs. offensive foul). The other night, he had 2 turnovers early, both were on offense, a week earlier, same thing, and at least a couple were questionable moving screens, etc.
Yeah, "vote early and often" type jokes were a staple of American political humor long, long before Jan. 6 happened, and Gorman is nothing if not old.
It felt like the team missed him in the 1st half when Tatum was out, and then figured out those stints as the game went on. Joe went with 3 guards a lot to keep scoring on the floor, and it worked really well. Think we'll see a decent amount of PP in the upcoming 1-2 weeks Jaylen misses.
Last night was a good quality win by a shorthanded Celtic team. The next were without KD, but I think this is the first time we have faced them with Simmons back and despite his obvious issues he adds a lot to them, defensively and in transition especially.
Tatum struggled in this one, but the Celtic bench really came through. In particular, injury fill ins Kornet and Pritchard were outstanding. Rob did not have big numbers in this one (although he clearly altered a bunch of Brooklyn's shots), but Grant, White, and Smart were all good as well. Three point shooting was also an issue, with the team going 12-36 overall. Of that, Tatum, Grant, and Smart combined to go 4 for 21, while the rest of the team went 8-15.
In 17 minutes off the bench, Kornet shot 5-5, including hitting his only 3, added 5 rebounds and an assist. In 15 minutes, Pritchard scored 9 point on 4-7 shooting and tied for the team lead in offensive rebounds with 3. Brogdon had his usually good game, with 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists on better than 50% shooting in 20 minutes.
The Celtics took a 2 point lead into the 4th quarter, where they needed to hang on through the Tatum/Smart rest minutes. And instead of just hanging on, a unit of Brogdon, Kornet, Pritchard, Grant, and White played the first 3:30 of the 4th and extended the lead to 8, with Brogdon and Pritchard getting 2 baskets each (3 layups and a 2 foot jumper by Pritchard).
Ben Simmons simultaneously added a lot ot this game while being a total weirdo who hurts his team in strange ways. He made a difference for the Nets on defense, in transition, and as a passer. At the same time, he played 26 minutes (in part due to picking up 5 fouls) and missed his only 3 shots from the field. He had 13 assists and fell one rebound short of being one of only a tiny handul of NBA players who have managed a double double without scoring a point. He's become a disaster at the free throw line and it has ruined his offensive game because he plays not be fouled. What a waste of real talent.
Tatum struggled in this one, but the Celtic bench really came through. In particular, injury fill ins Kornet and Pritchard were outstanding. Rob did not have big numbers in this one (although he clearly altered a bunch of Brooklyn's shots), but Grant, White, and Smart were all good as well. Three point shooting was also an issue, with the team going 12-36 overall. Of that, Tatum, Grant, and Smart combined to go 4 for 21, while the rest of the team went 8-15.
In 17 minutes off the bench, Kornet shot 5-5, including hitting his only 3, added 5 rebounds and an assist. In 15 minutes, Pritchard scored 9 point on 4-7 shooting and tied for the team lead in offensive rebounds with 3. Brogdon had his usually good game, with 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists on better than 50% shooting in 20 minutes.
The Celtics took a 2 point lead into the 4th quarter, where they needed to hang on through the Tatum/Smart rest minutes. And instead of just hanging on, a unit of Brogdon, Kornet, Pritchard, Grant, and White played the first 3:30 of the 4th and extended the lead to 8, with Brogdon and Pritchard getting 2 baskets each (3 layups and a 2 foot jumper by Pritchard).
Ben Simmons simultaneously added a lot ot this game while being a total weirdo who hurts his team in strange ways. He made a difference for the Nets on defense, in transition, and as a passer. At the same time, he played 26 minutes (in part due to picking up 5 fouls) and missed his only 3 shots from the field. He had 13 assists and fell one rebound short of being one of only a tiny handul of NBA players who have managed a double double without scoring a point. He's become a disaster at the free throw line and it has ruined his offensive game because he plays not be fouled. What a waste of real talent.
No Jaylen & 20pts from Tatum (3pts in the 2nd half?) should have led to a Net blowout. BUT the Celtics adjusted and the "next man up" mentality took over. The C's never let them get away even when the Nets couldn't miss early. Kyrie needs to burn some sage pre-game, because Boston owns Brooklyn (8 or 9 straight wins) at the moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL9qfksN2KQ
I keep speculating about Brad adding a BIG, but Luke is making his case whenever he gets minutes. He's even confidently stepping out to the Corner3 and launching. If Kornet can draw any defensive attention away from the paint that would be huge from a 3rd string BIG
Between now and the trade deadline, CJM should use Luke liberally.
He should be benched immediately whenever he does that. He's a big guy who is going to hit some of those layups if he takes them. And it hollows out his offensive game even more than it already is. Guys who can't shoot FTs is nothing new for the league and such players can still be very valuable. But cowering away from layups is a whole different deal.
Yup, Claxton is about as bad as a FT shooter, but he keeps playing normal basketball and things are fine.
Get fouled occasionally, maybe miss some FTs, woop dee doo.
Unfortunately, the Nets won't bench Simmons when he chickens out, because they're probably afraid of disturbing his clearly fragile mental balance. Delicate genius at work!
As to Jaylen making All NBA, is should be noted that the TV announcers even outside of Boston frickin’ love him.
Moreover: They love the whole Best Tandem / Top Two in the NBA thing.
And I think that’s a big thing among basketball fans, recognizing the greatness of having a great second best player that works with the best player. Like, the appreciation of the team sport element that is not necessarily unique to basketball (which is why assessing players is do hard because everyone is expected to be able to do everything) but taken seriously. Serious fans—and broadcasters and sportswriters generally qualify—really love the two greats playing together. So I can see this second fiddle thing going either way, and probably differently with different voters.
Brown also has a weird game. But it seems to be trending better. His game makes me think of the poem of the girl with the curl:
It seems to me that the ratio of “good indeed” to “horrid” is trending in the right direction. And when he is good indeed, well, holy hell. That bull rush he’s been doing more and more where he flexes that grown ass strength someone mentioned above? That gets noticed. Also, that floating fall away midrange jumper which for, like, almost everyone else in the league is considered bad shot selection? Wow.
Moreover: They love the whole Best Tandem / Top Two in the NBA thing.
And I think that’s a big thing among basketball fans, recognizing the greatness of having a great second best player that works with the best player. Like, the appreciation of the team sport element that is not necessarily unique to basketball (which is why assessing players is do hard because everyone is expected to be able to do everything) but taken seriously. Serious fans—and broadcasters and sportswriters generally qualify—really love the two greats playing together. So I can see this second fiddle thing going either way, and probably differently with different voters.
Brown also has a weird game. But it seems to be trending better. His game makes me think of the poem of the girl with the curl:
It seems to me that the ratio of “good indeed” to “horrid” is trending in the right direction. And when he is good indeed, well, holy hell. That bull rush he’s been doing more and more where he flexes that grown ass strength someone mentioned above? That gets noticed. Also, that floating fall away midrange jumper which for, like, almost everyone else in the league is considered bad shot selection? Wow.
Last night's box score is an interesting data point in something I've been keeping my eye on for a while.
Malcolm Brogdon played 20 minutes off the bench in this one. This was a game where Jaylen Brown was out and they knew they were going to need offense. Now, they clearly like Brogdon coming off the bench - no matter who has been out this year, he hasn't started a single game. But they were shorthanded, to the point where Payton Pritchard got real minutes, because a guard was missing from the rotation. He played 15 minutes, while Smart played 36 and White had 37. Brogdon played well (all four guards did, really), with 16 points on 7-13 shooting.
The night before, Marcus Smart was out. Derrick White stuck in the starting lineup and played 30 minutes. Brogdon played 26 minutes off the bench, with Pritchard playing 18. Brogdon had 20 much-needed points, while White and Pritchard both struggled (5 points and 3 points, respectively).
Season long, Smart's averaging 32.7 minutes per game. White is at 26.6, and Brogdon is at 23.5. Brogdon's been better than White on the offensive side of the ball by a considerable margin. The last two seasons in Indiana were the best of his career, averaging 34.5 and 33.5 minutes per game.
I'm not complaining; Brogdon's been great, he's a candidate for sixth man of the year. The Celtics have been good for the most part, and Derrick White's defense has been fantastic. I guess I'm just wondering if this is a concerted effort to keep Brogdon's minute down (obviously, he's got a lengthy injury history), or if he's just behind Smart and White in the rotation. And if it's the former, I'm wondering the extent to which Brogdon himself is on board with that plan after the numbers he put up the last couple seasons in Indiana.
It's probably the right call, but I do wonder if Brogdon gets antsy at some point this season if they start struggling and he's scrapping for minutes with the likes of Payton Pritchard.
Malcolm Brogdon played 20 minutes off the bench in this one. This was a game where Jaylen Brown was out and they knew they were going to need offense. Now, they clearly like Brogdon coming off the bench - no matter who has been out this year, he hasn't started a single game. But they were shorthanded, to the point where Payton Pritchard got real minutes, because a guard was missing from the rotation. He played 15 minutes, while Smart played 36 and White had 37. Brogdon played well (all four guards did, really), with 16 points on 7-13 shooting.
The night before, Marcus Smart was out. Derrick White stuck in the starting lineup and played 30 minutes. Brogdon played 26 minutes off the bench, with Pritchard playing 18. Brogdon had 20 much-needed points, while White and Pritchard both struggled (5 points and 3 points, respectively).
Season long, Smart's averaging 32.7 minutes per game. White is at 26.6, and Brogdon is at 23.5. Brogdon's been better than White on the offensive side of the ball by a considerable margin. The last two seasons in Indiana were the best of his career, averaging 34.5 and 33.5 minutes per game.
I'm not complaining; Brogdon's been great, he's a candidate for sixth man of the year. The Celtics have been good for the most part, and Derrick White's defense has been fantastic. I guess I'm just wondering if this is a concerted effort to keep Brogdon's minute down (obviously, he's got a lengthy injury history), or if he's just behind Smart and White in the rotation. And if it's the former, I'm wondering the extent to which Brogdon himself is on board with that plan after the numbers he put up the last couple seasons in Indiana.
It's probably the right call, but I do wonder if Brogdon gets antsy at some point this season if they start struggling and he's scrapping for minutes with the likes of Payton Pritchard.
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JB turning himself into a facsimile of Jimmy or Demar in the midrage while also having a three point shot is a real delight. As has his handle in traffic. But all praise aside, that Longfellow poem and JB is spot on.
I'm guessing he won't play much more than that until the playoffs. It seems like a pretty deliberate effort to keep him from breaking down with the end goal in mind.
I was listening to the game last night driving home from Gloucester to the South Coast. Grande's was commenting on Brogdon's role and minutes. While he didn't say it straight out, his commentary made it pretty clear Malcom's minutes are an intentional, load management strategy. Given how deliberate it seems, I'd assume this was discussed internally with the player and there is buy in. PBS and CJM are seemingly doing a very good job at getting players to accept roles with the understanding their stock rises with the ship.
I'm sure Brogdan is fine with his role. After all, he asked to come to BOS knowing what they had.
It will be interesting to see if he starts playing 30 mpg in the playoffs.
Thank god we have 4 guards who are credible NBA players (I think of Jaylen as a SF, no matter what the all-star vote says). We can have one of them be out and not miss a beat. We could, in theory, even have 2 of them out and still have a playable rotation with Jaylen. Pritchard has enough NBA skills that you can fit him into a gameplan and have him positively impact things on the floor, even if you might question whether he could handle a starter's responsibilities and not have the league just figure him out, or exploit his size on defense in the playoffs.
You'd hope for the same from our bigs, and yet we only have 2 real NBA centers (TL and Kornet), and 2 guys who can guard the 5 but who can't really play one on offense for long (Granite and Al). We got a few half-decent games out of Blake Griffin, but if he were capable of giving 100% consistently (even if for more limited minutes), we'd be so much more resilient as a team. Last night we lived with Horford being out, and the night before we lived with TL being out, but man am I dreading losing any of that depth for a (hypothetical) injury measured in weeks, because we just can't rely on the same depth as we can at guard.
Thank you for sharing that color - that sort of tidbit is one of the reasons why I think Grande is one of the best at the job.
My guess is that at age 30 and with lots of time due missed to injuries that Brogdon might actually be stoked to be on a team that doesn't have to run him into the ground to make the dance. Furthermore, Malcolm has an opportunity to get deeper into the playoffs than his Indy teams - and my guess is his minutes will ramp up then.
He could be frustrated but he may just be happy to be on a contending team with a clear role that expands when the games really matter.
Agreed, there's no sign he's unhappy and I'm not trying to look for the negative here. I think it's the right call to keep him healthy for the full season, and part of the reason I'm so optimistic about the Celtics' title chances is because of their playoff 8-man rotation: White, Brogdon and Grant off the bench (assuming we're starting two bigs by then, but reconfigure however you like; it's a real advantage to not have a single offensive or defensive weak link in your playoff rotation).
It's just, sometimes these things start out with the best of intentions on everyone's part, and then the team hits a rough patch, and the player's competitiveness takes over, and all of a sudden, the player isn't so sanguine about playing less, or coming off the bench, or being the 8th inning guy, or whatever. Hopefully just my innate cynicism at play here.
It's just, sometimes these things start out with the best of intentions on everyone's part, and then the team hits a rough patch, and the player's competitiveness takes over, and all of a sudden, the player isn't so sanguine about playing less, or coming off the bench, or being the 8th inning guy, or whatever. Hopefully just my innate cynicism at play here.
There was an interview, just after he was acquired, where he said something to the effect, "I am happy to be down the depth chart, as a #1 option I was being run into the ground" - but there was no commentary on the amount of minutes etc...
What's our actual depth look like right now, assuming health?
Starters:
Smart
Jaylen
Tatum
Al
Timelord
Playoff rotation:
White
Grant
Brogdon
Deep rotation:
Pritchard
Kornet
Hauser
...Griffin?
(all others have been garbage-time-only)
So, with 10 or 11 legit NBA players on the roster, are we actually using that depth to load-manage our health-risk players (Al, Timelord, Brogdon, perhaps Smart) better than other teams? If I were to sort our roster by total 2022-23 minutes played, and sum up the minutes played of #s 8-11 on that list, how does that compare to other contenders?
BOS (Hauser, Kornet, Pritchard, Griffin): 1596
GSW (Lamb, Kuminga, Moody, Jerome): 2239
MIL (Connaughton, Nwora, Beauchamp, Matthews): 1958
DEN (Braun, Green, Cancar, Jordan): 1791
MEM (Clarke, JJJ, Bane, LaRavia): 2322
BRK (Watanabe, Sumner, Thomas, Warren): 1706
...ok, so those are just the ones I looked up, but from a quick glance it seems that the Celtics are using their "deep depth" way less than other contenders. You might point out that ranked #12 by minutes for BOS right now is Robert Williams, and he will be shooting up the minutes rankings, but has been protected from minutes thus far this season. And, sure, but similar things have happened up and down the roster at most NBA teams, so we can't go cherry-picking. Either way, while our #s 1-7 might get more of a relative break now that Time Lord is back, it doesn't change the fact that we've ridden our top 7 like rented mules thus far this season, by comparison to the rest of the league.
Gotta say, I went into this expecting the opposite, that we were able to better rely on our depth and protect our starters. Maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way?
Starters:
Smart
Jaylen
Tatum
Al
Timelord
Playoff rotation:
White
Grant
Brogdon
Deep rotation:
Pritchard
Kornet
Hauser
...Griffin?
(all others have been garbage-time-only)
So, with 10 or 11 legit NBA players on the roster, are we actually using that depth to load-manage our health-risk players (Al, Timelord, Brogdon, perhaps Smart) better than other teams? If I were to sort our roster by total 2022-23 minutes played, and sum up the minutes played of #s 8-11 on that list, how does that compare to other contenders?
BOS (Hauser, Kornet, Pritchard, Griffin): 1596
GSW (Lamb, Kuminga, Moody, Jerome): 2239
MIL (Connaughton, Nwora, Beauchamp, Matthews): 1958
DEN (Braun, Green, Cancar, Jordan): 1791
MEM (Clarke, JJJ, Bane, LaRavia): 2322
BRK (Watanabe, Sumner, Thomas, Warren): 1706
...ok, so those are just the ones I looked up, but from a quick glance it seems that the Celtics are using their "deep depth" way less than other contenders. You might point out that ranked #12 by minutes for BOS right now is Robert Williams, and he will be shooting up the minutes rankings, but has been protected from minutes thus far this season. And, sure, but similar things have happened up and down the roster at most NBA teams, so we can't go cherry-picking. Either way, while our #s 1-7 might get more of a relative break now that Time Lord is back, it doesn't change the fact that we've ridden our top 7 like rented mules thus far this season, by comparison to the rest of the league.
Gotta say, I went into this expecting the opposite, that we were able to better rely on our depth and protect our starters. Maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way?
Tatum is 5th in minutes per game and Brown is 22nd. They are the only two guys in the top 50 in minutes played per game. Looking at total minutes is going to overweight guys who don’t miss games.
I don’t think there is an agreement on how much playing time is the right amount. I do think that we may see more games off for Tatum and Brown as the season goes along if they have little nagging injuries so they are as healthy as possible going into the playoffs.
Agreed. I think they want the #1 seed so if that 3 game lead becomes 5-6, you may see some strategic rest, especially against non-playoff opponents.
Teams can offer him a 30% max deal with 5% raises for three seasons followed by a 35% max deal with 8% raises. If he makes All NBA (and every Celtic fan should be rooting for him to do so) Boston can offer him 35% right out of the gate. So him making all NBA pretty much ensures that he’s here as long as Boston wants him.
Just to put some (very rough) numbers on the above:
Salary cap for 2024-25 (first season of Jaylen's new contract) is projected to be $143M. So, another team can offer Brown:
2024-25: $42.9M
2025-26: $45 (5% raise)
2026-27: $47.1. Opt-out after this season to allow for bump to super-max.
2027-28: $52.5 (assuming cap is $150M).
2028-29: $56.7M (8%)
Total for 5 years: $244.2M
Celtics can offer:
2024-25: $50M
2025-26: $54M (8% bump)
2026-27: $58
2027-28: $62
2028-29: $66
Total: $290M
That's a $45M difference, which is real money even for NBA stars. By the end of that run, he would be 34 and probably past his prime earning years, so this would really be his one chance at the big payday.
Salary cap for 2024-25 (first season of Jaylen's new contract) is projected to be $143M. So, another team can offer Brown:
2024-25: $42.9M
2025-26: $45 (5% raise)
2026-27: $47.1. Opt-out after this season to allow for bump to super-max.
2027-28: $52.5 (assuming cap is $150M).
2028-29: $56.7M (8%)
Total for 5 years: $244.2M
Celtics can offer:
2024-25: $50M
2025-26: $54M (8% bump)
2026-27: $58
2027-28: $62
2028-29: $66
Total: $290M
That's a $45M difference, which is real money even for NBA stars. By the end of that run, he would be 34 and probably past his prime earning years, so this would really be his one chance at the big payday.
Maybe, maybe not. Amazon and Apple want into the NBA broadcast game, which means that the cap/luxury tax might be rising dramatically after Jaylen signs his new deal. Now Tatum’s contract will be a monster, but affordable with Jaylen locked up at sub 35% (by the new cap/tax lines) rates.
Jaylen’s raise will be covered just about in full by Horford’s reduction in salary. The following year Brogdon and White would come off so we’d have a ton of flexibility on top of the significant rise in the cap/tax.
Yes, the fact that he would sign the deal right before the cap goes crazy would quickly make it a very reasonable contract.
Unfortunately, barring a change to tax rules, it will probably mean that the days of carrying four $18-28M role players are over for the Cs, but that was always going to happen in the Jays' prime. (18-28M adjusted for future cap %)
I really hope this happens as supermax contracts can become a real hinderance to a team trying to build around a star (Lilliard’s latest extension, Beal) as they may not be worth the max in the sense of being a top 10 or 20 player as they start to decline, but the alternative of trading them for picks or letting them walk as a FA is a real hard sell to the fans and is a bad look for the league. Counting these contracts against the cap and luxury tax as something less than the actual cash value allows the players to potentially make more while also making it easier for owners to keep their stars and dream of building a contender around them. Seems like a win-win.
How they deal with these contracts in a trade will be interesting.
I think it would be straightforward: they count the same in a trade. Salary-matching rules stay exactly the same, and the "tax discount" only affects luxury tax payments, the hard cap, and MLE available.
I don't think "scrapping for minutes with the likes of Payton Pritchard" is accurate.
Brogdon is 7th on the team in total minutes and minutes per game. He'd be 6th in total minutes if he had not mssed 6 games due to injury.
Pritchard is 10th on the team in total minutes and 12th in minutes per game, and he has missed 15 games, all due to DNP-CDs.
According to cleaning the glass, Brogdon is 6th on the team in "non-garbage" minutes (he only has 3 minutes of garbage time all season long), while Pritchard is 12th in non-garbage minutes (and has 68 minutes of garbage time, which is nearly 1/4 of his total minutes on the season).
I have the same opinion. I think we know that if healthy the Celtic starters are going to be fine in the playoffs, and they need to develop a bench unit that can get the job done. They still have plenty of time to do that (almost half a season) but it isn't done yet.
It's funny that the present-day Celtics (Tatum pick) were derived from Boston trading Pierce/Garnett. Danny opted not to sign them to massive "for the fan" contracts and use them as trade bait/add draft picks. The fans understood right?
Looks like the Wizards/PDX will be stuck in purgatory while they run their nostalgia tour for the next 4-5 seasons
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The bench seems pretty good to me. Brogdon/Grant/White is extremely high quality for 6-8.
Kornet/Hauser/Pritchard isn't loaded for 9-11, but nobody is loaded 9-11.
Obviously you always want more talent, but the Celtics have one of the best benches in the league, at least for playoff rotations. It's certainly top 5, and maybe the best.
It's an excellent lineup 1-8. I think a talent upgrade over Hauser is very doable and would be a great benefit.
Earlier this week the Celtics played good teams (Pels and Nets) on back to back nights and they were without two starters for each game (Smart/TL then AL/JB). I had a lot of confidence in the Celtics ability to win each night.
Think about that for a second. I can't remember a time I'd have been that confident in our ability to win with two starters out, regardless of the opponent. Then they did it on back to back nights. Against really good teams.
That’s every bench but is it really true? In the playoffs those guys are not going to be playing together……they are going to be in specific roles alongside Tatum/Brown/Smart.