2021 Washington Nationals: Can We Just Forget 2020?

Petey Bienel · Nov 26, 2020

Nats sign LHP Sam Clay to a major league contract out of the Twins system.

Clay arrives after spending seven years in the Minnesota Twins’ system. He was part of their 60-player pool in 2020. He became a free agent in early October. In 2019, when he last faced opposing batters, Clay led all of minor league baseball in groundball rate. He was one of 11 pitchers to log 60 or more innings and not allow a home run. He has yielded only six homers in 405⅓ innings that span his 187 career appearances. He said he has allowed just one homer as a reliever since 2013.

Clay is a sinker-heavy pitcher who throws that pitch, a slider and a change-up. He says he can go to any pitch in any count and has never been considered a lefty-lefty specialist. His success rides on whether he can locate his sinker low in the zone and use it to get groundballs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/18/nationals-sign-sam-clay/

sean1562 · Nov 26, 2020

Kieboom and Robles really need to take leaps forward if this team is gonna be any good next year. If they dont't, may be time to sell some pieces off at the deadline.

Petey Bienel · Dec 1, 2020

sean1562 said:
Kieboom and Robles really need to take leaps forward if this team is gonna be any good next year. If they dont't, may be time to sell some pieces off at the deadline.

Robles I don't think could handle the weight he put on. They call it "muscle." 15 pounds of it. Whatever it was, his D dropped off and he started missing pitches in the strike zone. His contact on swings on strikes and overall dropped about 5% per both ways Fangraphs tracks it. I'll settle for what he did his rookie year offensively and strong (not supernatural) defense. IF the weight gain was really working out after the end of the spring (as Martinez says), then maybe it really was too quick to adjust to. By the way, Saturday MLB.com reported he sprained his ankle in the DR winter league; has missed 3 games and is day-to-day.

Kieboom? At least his D improved over time. They rushed him in 2019 when Turner was hurt, but last year, how do you have an ISO of .010 over 120 PAs? I know cost-controlled slightly above average players are valuable, but they actually have to play that way when they are cheap, which means 2021-22 for him.

As for deadline deals breaking them up, I would have sold in May 2019

sean1562 · Dec 29, 2020

There is probably some desire to have Ryan Zimmerman play one more year. He has been pretty bad over the last few years but he still crushes LHP. Limited role in a platoon with Bell seems to be the play here.

loshjott · Dec 29, 2020

sean1562 said:
There is probably some desire to have Ryan Zimmerman play one more year. He has been pretty bad over the last few years but he still crushes LHP. Limited role in a platoon with Bell seems to be the play here.

Especially with Howie Kendrick's somewhat unexpected retirement. They need a RH bat to platoon or come off the bench.

Petey Bienel · Jan 1, 2021

A Jesse Dougherty article on how the Nats don't have Jackson Rutledge or Cade Cavalli available in trade has a kind of jaw-dropping recap of the pitching they've dealt in the past 5 years or so.

"Giolito and Dunning, by contrast, were traded to the Chicago White Sox for Adam Eaton in 2016. Reynaldo López, another young arm, was included in that deal. Jesús Luzardo, another top pitching prospect, headlined a trade package for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in 2017. And just last week, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean — a pair of consensus top-10 prospects for Washington — were sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for first baseman Josh Bell."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/12/31/jackson-rutledge-nationals-future/
There was also the July 2016 trade of Felipe Vazquez (Rivero) for Mark Melancon. Maybe best not to mention him.

Dougherty also reports that they have signed Javy Guerra and Welington Castillo to minor league contracts, but I don't see an announcement from the Nationals about this. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/12/21/nationals-javy-guerra-welington-castillo/

jose melendez · Jan 5, 2021

Thames was a huge star in Korea. He was on the Masked Singer and everything. I have no idea if that translates to Japan.... probably depends entirely on how well he plays.

Petey Bienel · Jan 9, 2021

Kyle Schwarber to the Nats for 1 year, $10MM, pending physical, per multiple sources.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/nationals-to-sign-kyle-schwarber.html
Likely means Soto plays right and Schwarber plays left. I'm surprised that he grades out as average in left per UZR. Negative in terms of some other measures. I'm surprised the article says the Nats lineup "still leaned mostly towards right-handed hitters" even after Bell. I see now Schwarber, Bell, Ted Williams Soto, and possibly Garcia as left handed regulars, v. Turner, Robles, mostly Gomes, probably Castro, and possibly Kieboom as right-handed hitters. I guess that's right-handed hitters in terms of quantity, not quality. Soto hits everything, so I guess Soto alone was not going to be enough to discourage throwing righties against lesser hitters. Both Schwarber and Bell have bad platoon splits. Maybe the Nats will still see a lot of RHP and Schwarber / Bell will feast.

E5 Yaz · Jan 18, 2021

https://www.mlb.com/news/jon-lester-nationals

Petey Bienel · Jan 27, 2021

behind Gomes right now, the Nats have 2 minor leaguers who have been busted for PEDs (Tres Barrera on the 40 man, Raudy Read with invite), Welington Castillo, and Swihart.

Petey Bienel · Feb 27, 2021

JimRiceHOFer said:
Nats Catcher situation now has the following depth:

Yan Gomes
Alex Avila
Wellington Castillo
Blake Swihart
Raudy Read
Tres Barrera

I liked the Avila signing because the Nats seemed very vulnerable to righty starters last season. Gomes has trouble with righties over his career and recently, so this has the potential to be a nice offensive platoon. That depends a bit on whether Davey wants to line up pitchers with catchers or not. Avila has handled Corbin, who Martinez used to line up with Gomes almost exclusively. Having two catchers who can both handle him is nice.

how much worse was it against RHP vs LHP? .845 OPS, .357 wOBA, 121 wRC+ vs. .741 OPS, .320 wOBA, 97 wRC+. I can't quite lay my hands on it at Fangraphs or Baseball Reference, but I recall the numbers were even more split comparing vs righty and vs lefty starters. When you think about it, Soto kills everybody, and then you had Thames, Eaton, and Garcia among the regulars as lefty batters, so it makes sense. Also explains pickups like Bell and Schwarber and Avila.

Of all the moves so far, the one that I shake my head at most is the Schwarber signing, in light of the Pederson and Rosario contracts. All 3 of those are 1 year deals, and I don't see why Schwarber is the one who got $10 million (plus an option) while the others are worth only $7 million and $8 million relative to Schwarber. I can sort of understand not getting into the Brantley bidding due to years and age (although at $16 million, he would have fit under the CBT and left the typical $10 million the Nats like to be at going into the season), but, for the money Pederson got, they might have been able to sign Pederson and Duvall ($12 million total) and still left them $14 million below the threshold.

Makes me wonder if they are leaving money to try to sign Turner long term.

Petey Bienel · Mar 27, 2021

With both Jordy Mercer and Hernan Perez being added to the roster and Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia being sent down, the infield, catcher, outfield and rotation look set barring trade. At least at the start of the year, it'll be Castro at 2nd, Harrison at 3rd, with a Bell / Zimmerman platoon at 1st and Turner at SS. 4th outfielder will be Stevenson (as I was writing this, I see Gerardo Parra was assigned to the minor league camp). Rotation looks set with everyone shaking off rust and injury scares -Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg, Lester, and Joe Ross.

Wil Harris had a scare with a reported blood clot in his arm, but further examination by specialist rules that out as the cause of hand numbness. Assuming he is going to need a bit of time to get ready at the alternate site in Fredericksburg at the start of the year, that means 5 out of the 6 locks for the bullpen will be on the active roster (Hand, Hudson, Rainey, Suero, Finnegan). Nats got dealt a surprise when an arbitrator rules the Erick Fedde, a 5th starter / long man candidate, did not have an option this year, so there is something of a squeeze at the back of the bullpen. Luis Avilan has looked good and would be a 2d lefty option, but would need to be added to the 40 man roster. They sent down Sam Clay, who had looked good and would have been another 2d lefty option. It's possible that both Fedde and Austin Voth (another 5th starter candidate) get kept as multi-inning relievers along with Avilan, but that leaves no space for Javy Guerra (who I see has been sent to the minor league camp), and of course there's a squeeze coming when Harris is ready.

It looks like there's potential for a deal to open up some roster spots. Specifically, Fedde would relieve the bullpen squeeze and open a 40 man roster spot for Avilan or Guerra. It's also possible that with Kyle McGowin, Voth, Ben Braymer as the sort of fungible arms that could serve the same role, Fedde could get released. Maybe a DFA candidate?

Other notable things about the spring include Josh Bell saying he's been trying to copy Soto some. Good choice

He's been hitting shots and going the opposite way as a lefty. The other thing worth mentioning is that, in the fun spring statistical aberrations department, Yadiel Hernandez's 30 AB line was .467 / .500 / .700. He was on the FG 2019 Ken Phelps All Stars, starting in RF with Rusney in LF. He's 33, hits lefty, and from Cuba. Always hit in the minors. Unlike Rusney, there's no CBT hit calling him up and he's actually on the 40 man roster. Debuted last year and made sure there was a good breeze on those late summer muggy nights in DC, with 12 Ks in 28 PAs. Per his wiki, he is the oldest player to hit a walk off for his first home run. He's somewhat redundant with Stevenson on the roster and Parra looking for a spot.

Petey Bienel · Apr 3, 2021

4 positives, 5 more in quarantine due to close contacts. Last time the team was together was Monday. While MLB rules allow close contacts back 7 days after contact with a negative test at least 5 days after the contact, DC rules require 10 days. (per Zuckerman / MASN - https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/04/full-mets-series-postponed-as-nats-await-more-results.html ). As of Friday, there's not been additional positives, and the team is testing daily. Assuming no additional positives, then the question will be whether DC will yield to MLB so that the Braves series can be played.

Minimal clues as to who the 4 players are. Scherzer flew up separately from the team so he likely missed the close contact. Previously, the Washington Post beat reporter tweeted that the 4 initial call ups were a c (Tres Barrera), an infielder (Luis Garcia), a lefty reliever (Sam Clay), and an outfielder (Yadiel Henandez). https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/mets-nationals-postponed-covid-19.html. IIRC, Robles had Covid last year, Soto tested positive once but may have been a false positive.

Petey Bienel · Apr 4, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/dougherty_jesse/status/1378701212967665666

The players match up with the positions of the 4 initial call ups.

loshjott · Apr 4, 2021

All new this season, not that it necessarily means anything.

Petey Bienel · Apr 5, 2021

FWIW, Zuckerman (MASN) has been observing who is / is not on the field at today's practice. In addition to the 4 previously identified (Schwarber, Lester, Harrison, and Avila), the missing include Trea Turner, Josh Bell, Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brad Hand, and Jordy Mercer. Additional call ups include Raudy Read (C), Kyle McGowin (multi-inning reliever), Adrian Sanchez (AAAA middle infielder), and Cody Wilson (OF). With Castillo hurt, this explains the Lucroy signing.

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/04/nationals-prepared-to-be-without-five-regulars-in-opener.html

Petey Bienel · 2021-04-12T20:49:48-0400

All players cleared now. Lester is throwing at the alternate site (Fredericksburg) and Harrison, Schwarber, and Bell are in the lineup tonight. Cards and MLB arranged for most of the team to get shots in St Louis because apparently the rules are easier their than DC.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/04/12/washington-nationals-vaccinated/

Lucroy DFA'd, but apparently gets service credit to reach his 10 year service time.
https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/04/bell-schwarber-and-harrison-activated-lucroy-designated.html

2021 Washington Nationals: Can We Just Forget 2020?

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