Pats QB Options

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Mystic Merlin

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Unless Miami is gaslighting us all about Tua (very possible), then SF is the best bet. Why would Watson want to play for the Jets over SF? And you would think Caserio would jump at the chance to send him out of conference if the NFC team’s offer is even close to an a AFC team’s offer.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Is the Jets?
This is where I am at as well. One team has a 20 year history of being the best team, or one of the best, in the league and one is the Jets, who cannot get out of their own way.

I am not saying it is likely Watson comes to NE, but they should offer very aggressively and really, I cannot imagine too many scenarios where the Pats should not pay whatever it takes to get Watson. He is 25, and a top 5 QB in the league. It isn't like by acquiring him they will only have a 2-3 year window to win with him.
 

E5 Yaz

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The only way Watson comes to the Patriots is if he won't accept a trade to any other team.
This is the answer, right here. Besides the lack of weapons in NE, there's also the difficulty of Easterby/Caserio trading with Belichick, who has less to offer in return.
 
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NoXInNixon

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Vegas has the 49ers as +1500 to win next year's Super Bowl, which only makes sense if they know they're getting Watson.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The power of the no-trade is really evident here too. Watson can say, behind the scenes, "look guys, right now here's the real list I'll say yes to. But if you don't act on it, the list is going to get really short and really public. Once that happens, those few teams are going to be public about their offers and the pressure on you is going to up while your leverage with the few teams I'll say yes to is going to drop. So you need to get this done in the next few weeks or I'm going to change the landscape for you"

Sure they can call his bluff but it really is a nuclear option for them
 

Bowser

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Watson has tossed some Twitter bouquets the Pats way following the Caserio hire and in the aftermath of the 2020 season. These, along with his statements about how Houston needs a culture shift, suggest at least an interest in what the Patriots have going on.

And I don't get the idea that the Pats can't match the hypothetical offers by the Jets, Dolphins, etc. Really? How about five #1s? How about JC Jackson, Mike Onwenu and two #1s? We can beat any -- or virtually any -- offer made. Besides, if I'm Caserio, I have a real interest in doing business with Belichick. Caserio knows our players. Who's more valuable, Kyle Dugger or the #25 pick from Miami in 2022? I'm not saying the answer is clearly Dugger, but it may be.
 

dynomite

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The only way Watson comes to the Patriots is if he won't accept a trade to any other team. I just can't see the Patriots' current situation being appealing to him.
I think this may be true, although I'll say it could be that Watson wants to play for Belichick and is willing to bet on the Patriots as a franchise. Unlikely but possible.

They would need to sell a vision. Doubtful it would be effective but they do have cap space to get him some help.

“Hey, we have BB/Josh at coach, good running game/OL, and we’ll be adding additional weapons in FA. Tell us which WR1 you want and we’ll make it happen. The defense? Don’t worry about it. BB will make it work”

If Watson is open to NYJ or MIA (and interest is mutual), it’s over. Likewise with SF. They have a much more intriguing pitch with Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, etc.
The Jets are the Vegas favorite and I don't get it. I suppose because of Saleh, the NY media market, and other factors mentioned. But acquiring Watson would put a serious dent in one of the Jets' main advantages (the draft capital), and while Saleh is highly regarded he's totally unproven as a head coach and the Jets as an organization don't have the best track record.

Personally, I think the Dolphins make a disturbing amount of sense. I wouldn't underrate how much of a draw it is for a young superstar to live and work in Miami. Living in South Florida in the fall is pretty nice, there's no state income tax, Flores is proving himself to be a young coaching star, and the Dolphins had enough pieces in place to finish 10-6 this year.
 

RedOctober3829

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Watson has tossed some Twitter bouquets the Pats way following the Caserio hire and in the aftermath of the 2020 season. These, along with his statements about how Houston needs a culture shift, suggest at least an interest in what the Patriots have going on.

And I don't get the idea that the Pats can't match the hypothetical offers by the Jets, Dolphins, etc. Really? How about five #1s? How about JC Jackson, Mike Onwenu and two #1s? We can beat any -- or virtually any -- offer made. Besides, if I'm Caserio, I have a real interest in doing business with Belichick. Caserio knows our players. Who's more valuable, Kyle Dugger or the #25 pick from Miami in 2022? I'm not saying the answer is clearly Dugger, but it may be.
I disagree with the Pats being able to beat any offer. Obviously, 5 number 1's is not even in the realm of reality so let's deal in actual reality. The Jaguars could offer the #1 pick to draft Lawrence, #25, 2 2nd rounders this year, and their #1 next year The Jets could offer #2, #23, and have 1 or 2 first rounders to offer next year. The Dolphins could offer #3, #18, both of their 2nds this year, and their first next year. It's pretty clear the Patriots couldn't sniff those offers.
 

Beomoose

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Vegas has the 49ers as +1500 to win next year's Super Bowl, which only makes sense if they know they're getting Watson.
Don't they also have SF as even money to land Stafford? Seems unlikely, though potentially hilarious, that both would end up on the same team.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Jets are the Vegas favorite and I don't get it. I suppose because of Saleh, the NY media market, and other factors mentioned. But acquiring Watson would put a serious dent in one of the Jets' main advantages (the draft capital), and while Saleh is highly regarded he's totally unproven as a head coach and the Jets as an organization don't have the best track record.

Personally, I think the Dolphins make a disturbing amount of sense. I wouldn't underrate how much of a draw it is for a young superstar to live and work in Miami. Living in South Florida in the fall is pretty nice, there's no state income tax, Flores is proving himself to be a young coaching star, and the Dolphins had enough pieces in place to finish 10-6 this year.
Dolphins definitely make the most sense to me. You'd have to be really, REALLY sure about your Tua evaluation to pass up the opportunity to land Deshaun Watson smack dab in his prime and signed up. Sure, there is an alternative path to success where Tua develops into the guy we saw at Bama and you keep that draft capital to add playmakers/protection around him but the risk they would run is adding a bunch of talent and having Tua not making a leap. Then, you'd have a solid team around a bad/mediocre QB and no real opportunity to add that QB you need to make it all work.

The Jets have the draft capital to make it work but the big question is does Watson want to go there? That team has a ton of holes and a new HC along with the stink of decades of incompetence.

SF has less draft capital but tons of talent on the team so they are well-positioned to be very good, very quick. I would imagine they would be appealing to Watson but if Miami is also appealing and interested, SF can't touch that offer.
 

Saints Rest

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Presumably, Watson is leaving Houston in large part due to the colossal shit-show that has been running the team for the last 12-24 months, both on the field and off.

Even with all his talents, HOU went 4-12 this year.

You would think that he would want to head to a team with front-office stability and strong coaching to rectify the former complaint, but also a team with a strong set of other players to improve the on-field results compared to last year.

In that regard, SF and MIA would have to be seen as the front-runners. The Pats can offer an excellent organization, but the roster is lacking. The Jets don't seem to offer much of either, beyond the hope that Saleh can become as good as Flores, Shanny or Bill.
 

BaseballJones

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The Pats' roster is lacking. But let's not go too crazy.

(1) Even with all their flaws, they finished just three games behind Miami this year. We aren't talking about a 5-11 Patriots team vs. an 11-5 Dolphins team.
(2) The main spot where the Patriots' roster is lacking is...QUARTERBACK. Which Watson promptly solves in a humongous way. I mean, how much better was Houston's weapons than New England's this year? Cooks and Fuller are better than NE's WRs, for sure. But the Pats have a MUCH better offensive line, and Harris is a stud. Plus, NE can spend $$ to get a true WR1 this offseason. And Watson threw for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns with not exactly phenomenal weapons, so I think he could do some work with this group, even if they didn't improve the weapons, which obviously I'd expect them to do.
(3) NE has a good defense, and has the resources to improve on the offensive side of the ball. Obviously trading for Watson would remove quite a few key draft picks, but they are still flush with cash.
(4) NE offers the greatest coach in the world, and Watson knows that.
(5) NE also offers a phenomenal owner and organizational infrastructure, and Watson likely knows that too.

It's not like NE is some dumpy place with no talent and a losing organization. They've got a TON going for them, and no that's not just a homer viewpoint.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I tend to doubt Pats will offer up enough for Watson, they are so risk-averse and that many future assets consolidated into one guy is something they have never come close to doing. I realize they have never faced the option at QB before, I just think across lots of decisions of different types (allocation of cap $, use of draft picks, use of FA, roster construction) they have almost always opted to spread risk rather than consolidate it.

I surely have no idea if he wants to be in New England or a team without weapons.

But I do think a key goal for Watson is at the ownership level, and to get away from the McNair family to an owner like Kraft (or an equivalent caliber owner). That's part of why the Jets seem unlikely to me, he has to realize that Saleh (however great he will or won't be) isn't enough and the Jets ownership is no more competent than Houstons (though perhaps less personally offensive)
 

RedOctober3829

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The Pats' roster is lacking. But let's not go too crazy.

(1) Even with all their flaws, they finished just three games behind Miami this year. We aren't talking about a 5-11 Patriots team vs. an 11-5 Dolphins team.
(2) The main spot where the Patriots' roster is lacking is...QUARTERBACK. Which Watson promptly solves in a humongous way. I mean, how much better was Houston's weapons than New England's this year? Cooks and Fuller are better than NE's WRs, for sure. But the Pats have a MUCH better offensive line, and Harris is a stud. Plus, NE can spend $$ to get a true WR1 this offseason. And Watson threw for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns with not exactly phenomenal weapons, so I think he could do some work with this group, even if they didn't improve the weapons, which obviously I'd expect them to do.
(3) NE has a good defense, and has the resources to improve on the offensive side of the ball. Obviously trading for Watson would remove quite a few key draft picks, but they are still flush with cash.
(4) NE offers the greatest coach in the world, and Watson knows that.
(5) NE also offers a phenomenal owner and organizational infrastructure, and Watson likely knows that too.

It's not like NE is some dumpy place with no talent and a losing organization. They've got a TON going for them, and no that's not just a homer viewpoint.
1) True, but Miami is still closer to being a contender at this point than the Patriots.

2) QB is not the main spot the Pats are lacking. There are holes all over the roster on both sides of the football. Watson could go to a number of different teams and be better off. The Pats have never spent money to get a big time free agent WR and with the number of holes they have I don't expect that to change. Most likely, the best OL on the team is out the door in Joe Thuney. RT is in question. Wynn is a huge injury question mark.

3) The Patriots in fact do not have a good defense.

4 and 5 may be true, but having a good coach and ownership group doesn't mean much when you aren't that close to winning a championship.
 

Oppo

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1) True, but Miami is still closer to being a contender at this point than the Patriots.

2) QB is not the main spot the Pats are lacking. There are holes all over the roster on both sides of the football. Watson could go to a number of different teams and be better off. The Pats have never spent money to get a big time free agent WR and with the number of holes they have I don't expect that to change. Most likely, the best OL on the team is out the door in Joe Thuney. RT is in question. Wynn is a huge injury question mark.

3) The Patriots in fact do not have a good defense.

4 and 5 may be true, but having a good coach and ownership group doesn't mean much when you aren't that close to winning a championship.
Interesting take. The defense was ranked between roughly 6-15 for a lot of categories despite a horrific offense, Gilmore injuries, and opt outs.
They still kept teams 2.87 pts under their season averages (it moves up to 3 if you remove their games against NE). Between vet returns, growth from the 1st and 2nd year players, and a ton of FA money and the defense could very easily be top 5 next year.

Interesting that a QB room of Stidham and Hoyer isn’t an area of most lacking.
 

BaseballJones

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Interesting take. The defense was ranked between roughly 6-15 for a lot of categories despite a horrific offense, Gilmore injuries, and opt outs.
They still kept teams 2.87 pts under their season averages (it moves up to 3 if you remove their games against NE). Between vet returns, growth from the 1st and 2nd year players, and a ton of FA money and the defense could very easily be top 5 next year.

Interesting that a QB room of Stidham and Hoyer isn’t an area of most lacking.
Pats' D wasn't very good by DVOA rank, but in many other metrics they were pretty solid.

#9 in the NFL by opposing passer rating (89.3) - so top 10
#16 in the NFL by opposing yards per rush (4.5) - so middle of the pack
#9 in the NFL by opposing AY/A passing (6.8) - so top 10
#7 in the NFL in points allowed (22.1)
#15 in the NFL in yards allowed (353.8)

And as you mentioned, holding their opponents to fewer points than they scored against everyone else.

And yeah, the QB situation is the worst unit on the team. I mean....Cam was a disaster. Hoyer was even worse. And Stidham apparently couldn't move past them either.

Watson (who isn't likely to come here anyway) would solve the biggest problem for them instantly.
 

Super Nomario

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Interesting take. The defense was ranked between roughly 6-15 for a lot of categories despite a horrific offense, Gilmore injuries, and opt outs.
They still kept teams 2.87 pts under their season averages (it moves up to 3 if you remove their games against NE). Between vet returns, growth from the 1st and 2nd year players, and a ton of FA money and the defense could very easily be top 5 next year.
I'm sure they did keep opponents under their season average, but a big reason for that was opponents had only 157 drives, fewest in the NFL. So while the NE D finished 7th in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed, they were only 16th in points allowed per drive and 25th in yards allowed per drive. They were inefficient on a per play basis as well - 6.9 NY/A passing against ranked 23rd, and 4.5 YPC against ranked 20th. It was not a good defense.

Interesting that a QB room of Stidham and Hoyer isn’t an area of most lacking.
Hoyer isn't even under contract, it's just Stidham. But that's hardly the only position group that's an issue. TE / WR have been tire fires two years running, LB has been severely depleted (and Hightower is no lock to return), and the only DL under contract are Cowart and something named Michael Barnett.
 

Bowser

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I disagree with the Pats being able to beat any offer. Obviously, 5 number 1's is not even in the realm of reality so let's deal in actual reality. The Jaguars could offer the #1 pick to draft Lawrence, #25, 2 2nd rounders this year, and their #1 next year The Jets could offer #2, #23, and have 1 or 2 first rounders to offer next year. The Dolphins could offer #3, #18, both of their 2nds this year, and their first next year. It's pretty clear the Patriots couldn't sniff those offers.
The proposed trades you cite aren't actual reality either. The Jags are not offering that haul for Watson. In actual reality, the Dolphins' hiring of Charlie Frye as QB coach has been hailed by some as an indication they're sticking with Tua. And Tua isn't looking like a franchise QB Houston would necessarily be interested in building around anyway. In actual reality, the Jets have sucked as an organization for several decades, which can't have much appeal to a guy looking for a place with an established culture of competitive excellence. Perhaps Saleh is the guy to turn it all around. I have my doubts.

My larger point is that the Pats can put together a competitive offer assuming Watson has an interest in coming here and Caserio would value a package of picks and young players whom he knows from firsthand experience.
 

RedOctober3829

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Interesting take. The defense was ranked between roughly 6-15 for a lot of categories despite a horrific offense, Gilmore injuries, and opt outs.
They still kept teams 2.87 pts under their season averages (it moves up to 3 if you remove their games against NE). Between vet returns, growth from the 1st and 2nd year players, and a ton of FA money and the defense could very easily be top 5 next year.

Interesting that a QB room of Stidham and Hoyer isn’t an area of most lacking.
I'm assuming they will upgrade the QB situation so I'm not even taking into account QB when it comes to "most lacking". It's a given they'll add to that room.

Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots defense 26th overall. The only teams worse were Detroit, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, LV, and Cincinnati. They ranked 18th against the pass and 32nd(DFL) against the run. I don't think they could very easily be a top 5 defense next year even if Hightower and Chung are back and playing well. The 2 best DL(Guy and Butler) are FA's and easily could be asking for more than the Pats could offer. LB was a complete disaster this year and we are having to hope for significant gains from Uche and Jennings combined with an outside addition. If they trade Gilmore, the secondary goes from a significant strength to an average group. Jackson did not show out well as the #1 guy. Offensively, the WR/TE groups are one of the bottom groups in the league if not the worst.

In terms of the cap, yes there is a lot of room. But a significant add at QB will take a lot of that space up then how many of the intenal FA's do they sign? If they keep Andrews, that will cost 7-10 million a year. JC Jackson's RFA contract will cost a lot. White? Guy and Butler? There won't be a lot of room to add multiple big money contracts to the roster. I'd be focusing on multiple mid-tier players across the board who can help and not the Chris Godwin's and the Lavonte David's of the market.

Offensively, the WR/TE groups are one of the bottom groups in the league if not the worst.
 

Mooch

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1) True, but Miami is still closer to being a contender at this point than the Patriots.

2) QB is not the main spot the Pats are lacking. There are holes all over the roster on both sides of the football. Watson could go to a number of different teams and be better off. The Pats have never spent money to get a big time free agent WR and with the number of holes they have I don't expect that to change. Most likely, the best OL on the team is out the door in Joe Thuney. RT is in question. Wynn is a huge injury question mark.

3) The Patriots in fact do not have a good defense.

4 and 5 may be true, but having a good coach and ownership group doesn't mean much when you aren't that close to winning a championship.
All of these are true.

You could have also said many of these same things about the 2000 Patriots. If there's one guy who knows how to build a winner, it's Belichick.
I'm assuming they will upgrade the QB situation so I'm not even taking into account QB when it comes to "most lacking". It's a given they'll add to that room.

Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots defense 26th overall. The only teams worse were Detroit, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, LV, and Cincinnati. They ranked 18th against the pass and 32nd(DFL) against the run. I don't think they could very easily be a top 5 defense next year even if Hightower and Chung are back and playing well. The 2 best DL(Guy and Butler) are FA's and easily could be asking for more than the Pats could offer. LB was a complete disaster this year and we are having to hope for significant gains from Uche and Jennings combined with an outside addition. If they trade Gilmore, the secondary goes from a significant strength to an average group. Jackson did not show out well as the #1 guy. Offensively, the WR/TE groups are one of the bottom groups in the league if not the worst.

In terms of the cap, yes there is a lot of room. But a significant add at QB will take a lot of that space up then how many of the intenal FA's do they sign? If they keep Andrews, that will cost 7-10 million a year. JC Jackson's RFA contract will cost a lot. White? Guy and Butler? There won't be a lot of room to add multiple big money contracts to the roster. I'd be focusing on multiple mid-tier players across the board who can help and not the Chris Godwin's and the Lavonte David's of the market.

Offensively, the WR/TE groups are one of the bottom groups in the league if not the worst.
If only there was some kind of precedent for Bill Belichick adding mid-tier free agents and a QB change to take an under .500 team to a Super Bowl winner...
 

RedOctober3829

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The proposed trades you cite aren't actual reality either. The Jags are not offering that haul for Watson. In actual reality, the Dolphins' hiring of Charlie Frye as QB coach has been hailed by some as an indication they're sticking with Tua. And Tua isn't looking like a franchise QB Houston would necessarily be interested in building around anyway. In actual reality, the Jets have sucked as an organization for several decades, which can't have much appeal to a guy looking for a place with an established culture of competitive excellence. Perhaps Saleh is the guy to turn it all around. I have my doubts.

My larger point is that the Pats can put together a competitive offer assuming Watson has an interest in coming here and Caserio would value a package of picks and young players whom he knows from firsthand experience.
I'm not saying those teams would offer up all of those picks I listed. However, what they have to offer in draft capital is a lot more significant than what the Patriots can offer Houston. Charlie Frye's hiring would not hinder the Dolphins if they had a chance to get Watson. Houston would not have to take back Tua either. Miami could turn around and spin Tua to another team that wants him. #3/#18/2022 #1 would be enough without having to include Tua. As far as the Jets, I agree with you. I am not sure why Watson would want to go there either. But, he controls the entire situation and if he wants to go there they have the assets to make a big offer to satisfy Houston's need of picks.
 

Jimbodandy

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I would love to see the venn diagram of people who 1. want to make a godfather draft picks offer for Watson and 2. spent the last few years complaining about our lack of skill position depth on offense.
 

Captaincoop

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I would love to see the venn diagram of people who 1. want to make a godfather draft picks offer for Watson and 2. spent the last few years complaining about our lack of skill position depth on offense.
Considering what the Pats have been getting out of their 1st and 2nd round draft picks lately, unloading a ton of them for Watson might not result in a huge hit to the Pats' skill position depth in 2021 and beyond.

Some might be thinking of this as bundling up the next N'Keal Harry, Duke Dawson, Sony Michel, Derek Rivers, and Dominique Easley for a franchise QB.

Personally I'd prefer we keep the picks and start hitting on more of them, but...
 

DJnVa

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I would love to see the venn diagram of people who 1. want to make a godfather draft picks offer for Watson and 2. spent the last few years complaining about our lack of skill position depth on offense.
Can we also get one of people that want us to keep our picks and people that say BB sucks at drafting?
 

OurF'ingCity

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4 and 5 may be true, but having a good coach and ownership group doesn't mean much when you aren't that close to winning a championship.
Yep, this pretty much says it all. The reason Watson likely won't want to come here is the exact same reason Brady wanted to leave - there are other opportunities that present a shorter-term path to legitimate Super Bowl contention.

Now, the Pats can make up some of the difference if, for example, they go out and sign Allen Robinson, etc., but even if they did all that prior to Watson/the Texans making a final decision that's asking Watson to come into a fluid situation that might or might not work out in the short term. In a vacuum that's way better than the current situation he faces in Houston but it's not as good of a short-term situation as he would find in Miami, probably SF, and possibly some other team that enters the bidding (the Colts, for example).
 

SMU_Sox

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All of these are true.

You could have also said many of these same things about the 2000 Patriots. If there's one guy who knows how to build a winner, it's Belichick.


If only there was some kind of precedent for Bill Belichick adding mid-tier free agents and a QB change to take an under .500 team to a Super Bowl winner...
Now that BB and his scouting system are prevalent across the league, that more offensive systems are in place, and honestly to stop bleeding words... there are fewer inefficiencies.

Remember how BB would take this tweener types and use them when other teams wouldn't? Welcome to positionless football where that little market inefficiency is now gone. Remember the receiving only TE in 12? Gone. Tempo? Gone. Slots are undervalued! Not anymore they are not. Big nickel safeties are in vogue. Yes BB whiffed on the guys he took there but he was ahead of the curve imo on integrating that sub-package.

This is LTCM but there are no more nickels floating around to be easily sucked up. The best thing to do now is manipulate comp picks and trade day 3 picks for vets on expiring or cuttable contracts.



That and man this defense is so much worse off and with much less investment than that 2000 defense had. This defense has 0 stars in the front 7 unless you count old-man Hightower and that's stretching the definition of star. Bill might be able to successfully rebuild this defense but it's going to be harder than you think with needs across the entire roster.

I am going to speak out of both sides of my mouth here because I do think because of the cap situation they are in a unique position to cleanup and get a handful of steals and really turn the team around but it also wouldn't shock me if restocking 3-6 guys in a unit will only go so far without the horsepower. Like Bucky says, it's about players and plays. This is not the same situation as it was in 2000 - that front 7 had some thoroughbreds.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yep, this pretty much says it all. The reason Watson likely won't want to come here is the exact same reason Brady wanted to leave - there are other opportunities that present a shorter-term path to legitimate Super Bowl contention.

Now, the Pats can make up some of the difference if, for example, they go out and sign Allen Robinson, etc., but even if they did all that prior to Watson/the Texans making a final decision that's asking Watson to come into a fluid situation that might or might not work out in the short term. In a vacuum that's way better than the current situation he faces in Houston but it's not as good of a short-term situation as he would find in Miami, probably SF, and possibly some other team that enters the bidding (the Colts, for example).
The Pats are going to need an upgrade at WR no matter who they get at QB so I would hope that they'll be very aggressive in FA regardless of any Watson/Stafford plans.
 

E5 Yaz

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We kill so many bandwidth trees debating the merits of acquiring star players, when pulling off such a deal boils down to two chances ... slim and fat
 

dynomite

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1) True, but Miami is still closer to being a contender at this point than the Patriots.

2) QB is not the main spot the Pats are lacking. There are holes all over the roster on both sides of the football. Watson could go to a number of different teams and be better off. The Pats have never spent money to get a big time free agent WR and with the number of holes they have I don't expect that to change. Most likely, the best OL on the team is out the door in Joe Thuney. RT is in question. Wynn is a huge injury question mark.

3) The Patriots in fact do not have a good defense.

4 and 5 may be true, but having a good coach and ownership group doesn't mean much when you aren't that close to winning a championship.
Yes these are problems.

It’s not that it’s impossible to make a case for the Patriots. It’s that you need to make a case for the Patriots *instead* of the Dolphins.

From an on-field point of view, and assuming Watson wants to join an immediate Super Bowl contender in 2021, I’m having a hard time understanding why the Patriots would offer a better option than the Dolphins.
 

BaseballJones

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Yes these are problems.

It’s not that it’s impossible to make a case for the Patriots. It’s that you need to make a case for the Patriots *instead* of the Dolphins.

From an on-field point of view, and assuming Watson wants to join an immediate Super Bowl contender in 2021, I’m having a hard time understanding why the Patriots would offer a better option than the Dolphins.
Plus, living in Florida instead of cold New England. That may come into play too. Unless he really prefers the Jets, in which case he needs to have his head examined.
 

dynomite

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Plus, living in Florida instead of cold New England. That may come into play too. Unless he really prefers the Jets, in which case he needs to have his head examined.
Yes exactly — as I said above, there are any number of off-field reasons Miami is likely more appealing to a young superstar than Boston in a vacuum (Florida doesn’t have state income tax, Miami is one of the top worldwide nightlife destinations, he grew up in Georgia and would be closer to home, etc.)
 

BaseballJones

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So if you're the Patriots, and the cost to get him would be:

- #15 pick in 2021
- 2nd rounder in 2021
- 1st rounder in 2022
- 1st rounder in 2023
- JC Jackson

Would you do it?

That's a hell of a lot to give up. Because you could theoretically keep all those guys and simply add...maybe...JG...instead. But JG is no DeShaun Watson, obviously. But he's not bad either.
 

BigSoxFan

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There is a non-zero chance that Miami opts out of the Watson chase because they'd rather have Tua, their high 2021/2022 draft picks, and the cap space. Not sure I'd agree but it's certainly possible. If you eliminate Miami, then I would say things tighten up a little bit. With apologies to E5, I'm about to kill a lot of cyber trees here because this stuff interests me:

#2 (Jets): Huge organizational question marks but clear favorite in terms of draft capital with #3/#23 this year and Darnold to dangle as a potential young QB option.
#4 (Falcons): Ryan in the fold and they can't really trade him without taking a huge cap hit. Julio and Ridley would obviously be attractive for any QB but rest of the roster is quite meh.
#5 (Bengals): Watson wouldn't go there and they have Burrow.
#6 (Eagles): Would clearly love to upgrade from Wentz/Hurts. Don't think Houston would be interested in Wentz and Hurts has question marks regarding how good he might be. Also in cap hell. Doesn't seem likely.
#7 (Lions): Team is a mess and currently focused on biting kneecaps. Not likely.
#8 (Panthers): Rhule seems like a decent coach and they have CMac, Moore, Anderson as a nice foundation for a QB. Upgrading from Bridgewater to Watson would make a huge impact and they can shed Bridgewater after next year for only a $5M cap hit.
#9 (Broncos): Offensive weapons on offense are actually quite good with Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon/Lindsay at RB. Elway is always going to be aggressive. Does Watson want to play for an inferior team in KC's division though?
#10 (Cowboys): Have stated every intention of bringing Dak back. Can't imagine this is a viable option but they're a team who has a lot of talent and obviously a strong brand for a guy like Watson to link up with.
#11 (Giants): Seem content with Daniel Jones and not the most robust roster. Barkley's presence and being on the less crappy team in the NY market might make them semi-attractive to Watson but not sure Houston would have much interest in Jones.
#12 (Niners): Tons of talent. Great QB coach. Good defense. Played in SB 1 year ago. This is a strong contender for Watson if Miami bows out.
#13 (Chargers): Herbert in the fold so not likely.
#14 (Vikings): Trading Cousins would result in huge 2021 cap hit. Have a lot of talent on offense though. Defense not nearly as good as it was in prior seasons. Probably not likely.
#15 (Patriots): Great organizational structure and coaching staff. Very good RB. Good OL. Terrible WR/TE. Decent defense that is now in flux. Lots of cap space.

So, using the assumption that Houston isn't trade Watson to someone who doesn't have a high-to-mid round 2021 pick and the assumption that Miami is standing pat, I'm left with the Jets, Panthers, Broncos, 49ers, and Cowboys as the top options. If I'm Watson, I'm ranking that group 49ers, Cowboys, Panthers, Broncos, Jets.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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So if you're the Patriots, and the cost to get him would be:

- #15 pick in 2021
- 2nd rounder in 2021
- 1st rounder in 2022
- 1st rounder in 2023
- JC Jackson

Would you do it?
Yes, probably, because it would mean BB thinks he can contend in 2021 with Watson and, say, Will Fuller and Hunter Henry (and perhaps others). But I peg the likelihood of landing Watson at 15-20%, and I'm probably more optimistic than most. I mean, using a top 5 pick on a QB is great, until you pick Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariotta, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, etc. Most of these guys aren't garbage, but they're not long-term answers.

There is a non-zero chance that Miami opts out of the Watson chase because they'd rather have Tua, their high 2021/2022 draft picks, and the cap space. Not sure I'd agree but it's certainly possible.
I think this is not only possible but likely.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Whats everyones opinion on Marcus Mariota? Still only 27, no more injury prone than Jimmy G, can run, would probably be super cheap to acquire.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Whats everyones opinion on Marcus Mariota? Still only 27, no more injury prone than Jimmy G, can run, would probably be super cheap to acquire.
I could see them potentially taking a flyer on him as a backup on a short-term deal in a 3QB scenario where they have, say, Jimmy G or other stopgap vet, a rookie drafted in a lower round, and Mariota. But I certainly wouldn't want him starting for the Pats under any scenario other than their #1 QB is injured and whatever rookie they have isn't ready yet (what you might call the Brian Hoyer situation).

But, if they are thinking along those lines, I'd rather they get someone like Tyrod Taylor who might command a bit more money but for whom they wouldn't have to give up any assets since he's a free agent (whether he'd have any interest in being a backup/change of pace QB for the Pats in any event is an open question, of course).
 

Harry Hooper

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Has it been confirmed that JimmyG has a NTC until 2022? I can't see him agreeing to to go to Houston, if the NTC is real.
 

BigSoxFan

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Has it been confirmed that JimmyG has a NTC until 2022? I can't see him agreeing to to go to Houston, if the NTC is real.
Jimmy G wouldn't be part of the deal to Houston. SF would trade him separately to recoup some of the lost draft capital that they sent to Houston for Watson. Given his recent injury history and the lack of leverage they would have, the return would probably be pretty minimal though.
 

Super Nomario

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Jimmy G wouldn't be part of the deal to Houston. SF would trade him separately to recoup some of the lost draft capital that they sent to Houston for Watson. Given his recent injury history and the lack of leverage they would have, the return would probably be pretty minimal though.
Houston literally has no QBs under contract if they trade Watson, so I think they have to either get a QB back or a pick high enough that they can draft a QB.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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But, if they are thinking along those lines, I'd rather they get someone like Tyrod Taylor who might command a bit more money but for whom they wouldn't have to give up any assets since he's a free agent (whether he'd have any interest in being a backup/change of pace QB for the Pats in any event is an open question, of course).
Taylor is a good consideration in the bridge QB category, if they bring in a Jamie Newman to develop. Could justify a two year deal. Taylor is legendarily careful with the ball (to the point of taking more sacks than you’d prefer) and also has a rep as a hard-working/low-ego teammate.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah I’d expect a short-term vet signing coupled with a draft pick. Even #12 gets you within striking distance. Maybe Jimmy could be the short term vet and Caserio obviously has familiarity with him.
 

reggiecleveland

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You know what I am going to throw this out here. This thread to me is pretty good indicator TB>BB. Bill has to go through this 2-4 times during the last 20 years, and a miss at QB means your team is not very good.
 

lexrageorge

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You know what I am going to throw this out here. This thread to me is pretty good indicator TB>BB. Bill has to go through this 2-4 times during the last 20 years, and a miss at QB means your team is not very good.
I agree with the overall point; having a Hall of Fame QB covers up a lot of holes. But if you remove the QB from consideration, this season's roster was probably the worst one Bill had to work with in a long time. Probably as bad as the 2000 team, and definitely worse than the 2002 team that missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record.
 

Saints Rest

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Taylor is a good consideration in the bridge QB category, if they bring in a Jamie Newman to develop. Could justify a two year deal. Taylor is legendarily careful with the ball (to the point of taking more sacks than you’d prefer) and also has a rep as a hard-working/low-ego teammate.
I think if they are signing a short-term vet as a bridge, either to a one-year or two-year deal, I would want Fitzmagic. You would have to think he'd be cheap, plus he'd already have pretty good knowledge of the division.
 

BaseballJones

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Belichick has said a million times that players win games. He would likely be the first one to admit that the players are more important to winning than the coaches are. But of course, the coaches select the players and put the system in place that allows the players to succeed. As a stupid example, if BB insisted on running the triple option with Brady at QB, pretty sure we'd not be seeing Brady set all these records.

A great QB can obviously win a SB without a great coach. And a great coach can win a SB without a great QB. But you cannot win SIX Super Bowls without having both a great QB *and* a great coach. Brady may have been more important (I don't think this year proves it but if it does, fine), but in order to have the level of success the Pats did, it required BOTH of them. Brady doesn't win six without BB, and BB doesn't win six without Brady.
 

joe dokes

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The Pats are going to need an upgrade at WR no matter who they get at QB so I would hope that they'll be very aggressive in FA regardless of any Watson/Stafford plans.
They *do* need a WR upgrade, but I think even an average-ly accurate, field-scanning QB with last year's receivers would have made the passing offense quite a bit better. In the last 6 weeks, I've wtached QB's from Heinicke to Henne drop throws right into the basket that Newton almost *never* made in 2020. No to mention the not-well thrown completions that cost YAC week after week.
 

lexrageorge

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Belichick has said a million times that players win games. He would likely be the first one to admit that the players are more important to winning than the coaches are. But of course, the coaches select the players and put the system in place that allows the players to succeed. As a stupid example, if BB insisted on running the triple option with Brady at QB, pretty sure we'd not be seeing Brady set all these records.

A great QB can obviously win a SB without a great coach. And a great coach can win a SB without a great QB. But you cannot win SIX Super Bowls without having both a great QB *and* a great coach. Brady may have been more important (I don't think this year proves it but if it does, fine), but in order to have the level of success the Pats did, it required BOTH of them. Brady doesn't win six without BB, and BB doesn't win six without Brady.
The people taking joy at dunking on Belichick right now (cough, cough, Rex Ryan, cough, cough, Shank) really need to go back and watch the 2001 Super Bowl against the Rams, or the 2003 AFCCG against the Colts, the 2004 AFCCG against the Steelers (a team that destroyed them in the regular season) or the final Super Bowl against the Rams. Or read the comments about how the team practiced the exact goal line play with Malcolm Butler prior to the Super Bowl, or how the players said they were still going strong in the track meet agains the Falcons and felt that all that hill work helped them make the necessary plays in the 2nd half.

Yes, the players are indeed a huge part of it, and deserve every bit of the accolades that are thrown Belichick's way. But coaching matters, and they would have been lucky to win one Super Bowl with Rexie's feet on the sideline, never mind 6.
 

BigSoxFan

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They *do* need a WR upgrade, but I think even an average-ly accurate, field-scanning QB with last year's receivers would have made the passing offense quite a bit better. In the last 6 weeks, I've wtached QB's from Heinicke to Henne drop throws right into the basket that Newton almost *never* made in 2020. No to mention the not-well thrown completions that cost YAC week after week.
Certainly. It's not like they don't have any good WRs. Guys like Edelman, Meyers, Harry, Byrd are all capable secondary options so I don't think they need a complete overhaul or anything. But they really need that #1 or #1B type, especially since they are now without anyone you need to worry about at TE. Adding a guy like Robinson would potentially transform this passing game (assuming we actually have a functional QB).

Robinson
Edelman
Harry
Meyers

Get that and things look a lot less dire.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The people taking joy at dunking on Belichick right now (cough, cough, Rex Ryan, cough, cough, Shank) really need to go back and watch the 2001 Super Bowl against the Rams, or the 2003 AFCCG against the Colts, the 2004 AFCCG against the Steelers (a team that destroyed them in the regular season) or the final Super Bowl against the Rams. Or read the comments about how the team practiced the exact goal line play with Malcolm Butler prior to the Super Bowl, or how the players said they were still going strong in the track meet agains the Falcons and felt that all that hill work helped them make the necessary plays in the 2nd half.

Yes, the players are indeed a huge part of it, and deserve every bit of the accolades that are thrown Belichick's way. But coaching matters, and they would have been lucky to win one Super Bowl with Rexie's feet on the sideline, never mind 6.
I totally agree.
 
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