2021 NFL: QB Carousel

67YAZ

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Not that anyone asked, but the Bears are up against it. Foles is the only QB under contract at $6.7m, but he’d be over $10m in dead money.

The cap is a huge concern. The Bears top-51 number is $191 for next season at the moment. I see a reasonable path to $20-25m in savings with cuts a couple restructure/extensions. So if they can get down below $170m, they’re still going to need a higher cap to have room to maneuver...

Because they also lack WRs. Devin Mooney had a nice rookie season, but he’s the only WR under contract. Extension talks with Allen Robinson broke down during the season, and a tag number projected between $15-16m devours any cap space.

(As an aside, Robinson is fantastic and some team is going to sign a very productive WR who will quickly become his QB’s favorite target - runs great routes, presents a great target, great hands.).

The raft of draft picks paid for Mack also means the Bears have some real depth needs. They TE going to have to bargain shop in the secondary and the Oline for backups.

Oh, and the coaching staff and front office all know that they have to make a case for themselves this season - probably 10 wins and the playoffs, though the Bears did fire Lovie Smith after a 10 win season.

A short term reunion with Trubisky makes sense, even if it will it lead to a collective primal scream from Bears fans. Jimmy G also seems like the kind of QB Nagy would target, though Jimmy would have to be facing a tight market to see the Bears offer as his best.

After that?
 

mauf

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Not that anyone asked, but the Bears are up against it. Foles is the only QB under contract at $6.7m, but he’d be over $10m in dead money.

The cap is a huge concern. The Bears top-51 number is $191 for next season at the moment. I see a reasonable path to $20-25m in savings with cuts a couple restructure/extensions. So if they can get down below $170m, they’re still going to need a higher cap to have room to maneuver...

Because they also lack WRs. Devin Mooney had a nice rookie season, but he’s the only WR under contract. Extension talks with Allen Robinson broke down during the season, and a tag number projected between $15-16m devours any cap space.

(As an aside, Robinson is fantastic and some team is going to sign a very productive WR who will quickly become his QB’s favorite target - runs great routes, presents a great target, great hands.).

The raft of draft picks paid for Mack also means the Bears have some real depth needs. They TE going to have to bargain shop in the secondary and the Oline for backups.

Oh, and the coaching staff and front office all know that they have to make a case for themselves this season - probably 10 wins and the playoffs, though the Bears did fire Lovie Smith after a 10 win season.

A short term reunion with Trubisky makes sense, even if it will it lead to a collective primal scream from Bears fans. Jimmy G also seems like the kind of QB Nagy would target, though Jimmy would have to be facing a tight market to see the Bears offer as his best.

After that?
The Bears can always tag Trubisky if they think it’s critical to have him in 2021. Or they can let him walk and plug in Kirk Cousins or Jimmy Garoppolo or whoever. If you’re willing to pay the market rate, there will be options.

Think you’re right that the Bears won’t be very good next season if they’re paying market rate for a QB. Betting on Trubisky makes a lot of sense, but probably would require the Bears to guarantee money beyond 2021. Which only makes sense if you think Trubisky is the long-term solution, as the Bears won’t win in 2021 paying Trubisky what he’s worth.

Foles at $6.7M as a backup is fine. Or he could be a bridge to someone else, if the Bears decided to blow it up and trade up to draft a QB. (The blow-it-up option might be a casualty of the new playoff format; they might have had the courage to do it after a 9-7 season where they narrowly missed the playoffs, but it seems unlikely they would do it now.)
 
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E5 Yaz

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On Lombardis pod he seemed confident it was going to be before Friday. Seemed weirdly specific.
Well, yeah ... Saturday is the HoF announcement (I think) and Sunday is the game ... so that's probably why he's setting that as the cutoff
 

67YAZ

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Foles at $6.7M as a backup is fine. Or he could be a bridge to someone else, if the Bears decided to blow it up and trade up to draft a QB. (The blow-it-up option might be a casualty of the new playoff format; they might have had the courage to do it after a 9-7 season where they narrowly missed the playoffs, but it seems unlikely they would do it now.)
The organization extended Ryan Pace's contract a year so that they could do a clean sweep of the front office and coaching staff if things don't improve. My sense is that the Bears need to win 10 games to save everyone's jobs, but there's been no benchmark set out in public.

So I think the blow-it-up option is off the table. Pace & Nagy are going to make moves focused on 2021to keep their jobs.

But for the same reason, the Bears might be a sneaky suitor for Watson. Watson clearly makes them a better team in 2021, but the McCaskeys might sign off on a deal because Watson makes the team that much more attractive for the next coach & GM tandem should they axe Nagy & Pace after the season. It might be hard to swallow shipping out more 1st and 2nd round picks on the heels of trading for Mack, and Pace will have to swallow his pride to trade for a QB that he passed over just a few years ago. But it's a franchise-altering deal if you can swing it.
 

j44thor

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The organization extended Ryan Pace's contract a year so that they could do a clean sweep of the front office and coaching staff if things don't improve. My sense is that the Bears need to win 10 games to save everyone's jobs, but there's been no benchmark set out in public.

So I think the blow-it-up option is off the table. Pace & Nagy are going to make moves focused on 2021to keep their jobs.

But for the same reason, the Bears might be a sneaky suitor for Watson. Watson clearly makes them a better team in 2021, but the McCaskeys might sign off on a deal because Watson makes the team that much more attractive for the next coach & GM tandem should they axe Nagy & Pace after the season. It might be hard to swallow shipping out more 1st and 2nd round picks on the heels of trading for Mack, and Pace will have to swallow his pride to trade for a QB that he passed over just a few years ago. But it's a franchise-altering deal if you can swing it.
What is the draw to CHI for Watson? He has a full NTC and I don't see any reason he would waive it to head to CHI.
 

67YAZ

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What is the draw to CHI for Watson? He has a full NTC and I don't see any reason he would waive it to head to CHI.
Well, we don't really know what Watson wants. No doubt, every interested team is working back channels to express interest, showcase their organization, and try to glean some insight into Watson's mindset. Every asshole with a screen name is handicapping the possible landing spots, assessing which teams are closest to contention or have the lowest state income tax or distance from his childhood home.
 

Oppo

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What is the draw to CHI for Watson? He has a full NTC and I don't see any reason he would waive it to head to CHI.
Chicago was 8th in DEF and 25th in OFF in DVOA.
Minnesota is mediocre at best, Detroit is a tire fire, and GB is coming to the end of the Rodgers era.
Although, they look to be 10 mil over the projected cap and would need to fit in Watson’s money plus resign Robinson or another WR.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Why trade for Stafford before you know what's happening with Rodgers, Ryan, etc?
Because he will be a lot cheaper than Watson, is definitely getting traded, and Rodgers and Ryan are heavy favorites to stay put for cap and talent reasons.

You blink on Stafford - who will be dealt within the week - and you might get shut out of acquiring a considerable upgrade altogether.
 

Average Game James

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View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1355712045006655490?s=20


Schefter: "Detroit is dealing QB Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for two future first-round picks, a third-round pick and QB Jared Goff, per sources. Two former No. 1 overall picks trading places in the first blockbuster NFL trade of 2021."

So which team will have its own unencumbered first round pick first - the Ram or the Nets?
 

trekfan55

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I would have liked him on the Niners, not sure they would have parted with so many first rounders.

This takes care of two teams in ine swoop.

Now any team that wants Watson has to look at this and think.
 

JCizzle

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So, what do you do if you're the 49ers? Shanahan knows he can crank up a big offense with Matt Ryan. He's got a lot of miles on him but for 2 or 3 years? Why not?
He's the guy who thinks he can win with Cousins. He's not giving up big assets for Ryan. I love and hate that about him.

At this cost, I think they stay put and draft a guy at #12 or in the later rounds to develop behind Jimmy. This team still probably makes the SB if JG and Bosa are healthy.
 

Cellar-Door

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So, what do you do if you're the 49ers? Shanahan knows he can crank up a big offense with Matt Ryan. He's got a lot of miles on him but for 2 or 3 years? Why not?
ATL isn't going to trade Ryan is all the talk down here. They brought in Smith specifically to work with Ryan, and they aren't really set up to blow it up. They'll try to get the most out of that aging roster.
 

trekfan55

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So, what do you do if you're the 49ers? Shanahan knows he can crank up a big offense with Matt Ryan. He's got a lot of miles on him but for 2 or 3 years? Why not?

Wouldn't it be fitting for Aaron Rodgers to go to the 49ers and play his last years there? Or ironic?

I still remember him sitting in the Green Room for almost the entire 1st round. But that was not the Niners fault. They simply chose Alex Smith, And as upset as Rodgers was, Smith never fully developed because they went through like 7 different coaches and offensive philosophies in that time.

I think that with a team loaded with so many young offensive weapons, they should upgrade at QB if they can. I'm sure they gave it a go with Stafford but weren't willing to pay 2.3 1st rounders. Maybe Kirk Cousins qualifies as an upgrade?
 

OurF'ingCity

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"I’m hearing Russell Wilson’s camp has grown increasingly frustrated by the Seahawks inability to protect the 8 time Pro Bowler. He has been sacked 394 times in 9 seasons. This situation warrants serious monitoring. " - La Canfora

View: https://twitter.com/jasonlacanfora/status/1358992486253821958?s=21
LOL - Brady leaves the Pats for a better situation and immediately wins a Super Bowl and now every other QB on a decent team with some issues is like “hmm...”

Mostly joking, of course. I wouldn’t read much into the above since Wilson is under contract for another three years and unlike Watson, who clearly just hates the Texans organization at this point, I don’t see Wilson demanding a trade given that I don’t really see where Wilson could land that would be a better fit than where he is now.
 

Mystic Merlin

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That’s reporter speak for ‘there is not a real story here but let me beg its potential’. Yawn.

EDIT - I should back off my statement a bit in this case, as Russ’ comments on the DP show are pretty direct. Quick summary: ‘Let me help pick players just like TB12, who went somewhere HINTHINT that let him.’

He doesn’t sound like he is rattling sabers per se, ie, not a Deshaun Watson situation, but then again Russ is an extremely calm, soft spoken person in public so who knows what he really is thinking.
 
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mauf

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Conventional wisdom seems to be 5 QBs in the 1st round, with only 1 of those 5 (Jones) likely to be on the board when the Pats draft at 15, so McShay’s projection isn’t an outlier.

And of those 5, only Lawrence is a no-brainer, and 3 of the other 4* could be total busts. It’s becoming harder to find QBs outside the first round, though, so GMs need to place their bets. Careers will be made and broken on these judgments.


*- Barring injury, I don’t see a player with Fields’s obvious abilities and a track record of success with a top-flight college program turning into a total pumpkin like Jamarcus Russell or Akili Smith. Obviously, that leaves a lot of room for Fields to be a massive disappointment.
 

BaseballJones

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I know the NFL trend is athletic QBs who can beat you with their feet as well as their arm. But we literally just saw a 43-year old guy who can't run to save his life beat several of the best defenses in the NFL, knocking off Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes in order, to win the Super Bowl. He did it yes with excellent weapons and a great defense, but he also did it with leadership, decision-making, and accuracy. Mac Jones has the last three things in spades. And on a rookie deal, the Pats *should* be able to get him most of the other things as well.

I'm not saying he should be the guy they pick, but I think the people evaluating him as being not athletic enough to win in the NFL didn't pay attention to the freaking Super Bowl.

What do people see in Mac Jones that I don't? How is he a first round prospect?
He's got a really good (maybe not elite, but plenty good enough) arm, he's highly accurate, makes good decisions, and while he obviously is playing with superior talent around him, the scouts agree that he very often throws guys open, so one reason they're open is because of where Jones puts the ball. In other words, it's not just that Smith beats his guy by 10 yards and anyone in the world could hit him. Jones makes a lot of excellent plays out there in his own right.

He's tough to evaluate, though, because he is playing with superior talent all around him. Hard to know for sure just how good he can be.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Have players of the same position ever gone 1-4 before?

And 7 of the top 8 as wither QB or WR is pretty crazy, too. (Not saying it won't happen, though.)
 

Ferm Sheller

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I'm far from an expert, but something about Mac Jones's footwork doesn't seem very NFL-like.
 

Ferm Sheller

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It makes you wonder, what if Couch had gone to the Pats instead of the Browns? Would he have had a long, successful career? I'm not saying anywhere near Brady-like, but would he have won a SB or two over the course of 10 years, say? I'm glad we will never know.

EDIT: And I guess the corollary is if Brady had been drafted by the Browns, would he have begun a career selling life insurance in 2002ish?
 

PedroKsBambino

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I know the NFL trend is athletic QBs who can beat you with their feet as well as their arm. But we literally just saw a 43-year old guy who can't run to save his life beat several of the best defenses in the NFL, knocking off Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes in order, to win the Super Bowl. He did it yes with excellent weapons and a great defense, but he also did it with leadership, decision-making, and accuracy. Mac Jones has the last three things in spades. And on a rookie deal, the Pats *should* be able to get him most of the other things as well.

I'm not saying he should be the guy they pick, but I think the people evaluating him as being not athletic enough to win in the NFL didn't pay attention to the freaking Super Bowl.



He's got a really good (maybe not elite, but plenty good enough) arm, he's highly accurate, makes good decisions, and while he obviously is playing with superior talent around him, the scouts agree that he very often throws guys open, so one reason they're open is because of where Jones puts the ball. In other words, it's not just that Smith beats his guy by 10 yards and anyone in the world could hit him. Jones makes a lot of excellent plays out there in his own right.

He's tough to evaluate, though, because he is playing with superior talent all around him. Hard to know for sure just how good he can be.
The other thing is that IMO teams (and certainly the pats) value leadership in the QB position more than any other. Guys who set the right example, can take coaching, stay within a system (on field and in practice/offseason), are accountable really get a lot of extra points for that. There are essentially zero examples of a Super Bowl winning QB who doesn't do those things in an above-average way in recent years are there? So a guy who has less-certain physical traits but who you really believe can impact the culture in a postive way checks an important box. That in and of itself isn't sufficient (Tim Tebow!) but I think it's part of the evaluation of Mac Jones...he has won more, and in a proven system, than almost anyone recently and that is not nothing.

Also, while the overwhelming talent of Alabama makes it hard to know what is true and what is just, well, overwhelming talent around him he has also succeeded in a pro system against some of the best competition available. Again, not sufficient in and of itself, but part of what you evaluate positively with him.
 

Saints Rest

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Yes, 1999. Couch and Smith, ouch.
The NFL is rife with top 3 QB busts and disappointments. I separate the two as a bust being pretty much a zero and a disappointment being a mediocrity.

IMO . . .

Busts:
  • JaMarcus Russell
  • Akili Smith
  • David Carr
  • Joey Harrington
  • Ryan Leaf
Disappointments:
  • Tim Couch
  • Rick Mirer
  • Marcus Mariota
  • RGIII
  • Blake Bottles
  • Vince Young
  • Mitch Trubisky
  • Jameis Winston
  • Sam Darnold
  • Sam Bradford
EDIT: Moved Leaf to bust. I don't know what I was thinking when I first typed this up with him as a Disappointment. I think I was thinking of Mirer at the time.
 
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