2021 NBA Playoffs Gamethread

Greg29fan

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The Bucks losing to the Nets, the 76ers blowing it in the fourth to Atlanta, and the Jazz falling at home to the Kawhi-less Clippers are three all-time gut punch playoff losses in the span of like 30 hours.
 

lovegtm

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What team would Ben Simmons fit the best on anyway? It's the Celtics, isn't it? A healthy Clippers team.

There aren't many teams he would fit on as is. Most teams would have to build around him.
Yeah, you can fit pretty much anyone with Tatum/Brown, which is why they're so valuable. You can then get some value by adding an elite guy with a hard-to-fit weakness into that. Simmons would work really well--you can just play a generic $10-15M/year big shooting guard/wing at the "1", and then Simmons at the 4 or 5, depending on whether he's playing with a floor-spacing center or not.

It's hard for me to see Philly being willing to deal Ben to a rival, but if they lose to the Hawks, they can't continue with the core as-is.
 

128

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The Athletic:

The point guard who can’t, and won’t, shoot was another non-factor on offense down the stretch. Over the last two games, Ben Simmons has zero field-goal attempts and just one assist in a combined 17 fourth-quarter minutes. Simmons’ 13 percent usage rate in the fourth quarters of this series is the second lowest on the Sixers, ahead of only Matisse Thybulle. Simmons missed 10 foul shots in a game the Sixers lost by three, and is now shooting 22 of 67 from the free-throw line in the playoffs, once again having to be pulled from the game because the other team was intentionally sending him to the line.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Bucks losing to the Nets, the 76ers blowing it in the fourth to Atlanta, and the Jazz falling at home to the Kawhi-less Clippers are three all-time gut punch playoff losses in the span of like 30 hours.
The Step-up/Let-guard-down Effect in full force these playoffs.

No Kyrie (and really no Harden), No Problem

No Kawhi, No Problem


Where are all the MaMo haters this morning?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If Hawks close this out, I think the Process will officially be broken. Should have traded Simmons for Harden. Completely agree with the thought that Simmons would be best as small ball center. He needs to play the Boris Diaw role from those great Suns teams of the mid-2000s.

I think you have to deal him and try another combination before Embiid's health craps out.
This article - https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/hawks-76ers-ben-simmons-apologists-have-their-work-cut-out-for-them-and-the-process-is-hanging-by-a-thread/ - pretty much says the same thing.

It also points out, amusingly enough, that when Simmons won't shoot or try to go to the foul line, he has anti-gravity - i.e., he repels defenders towards his teammates, making it harder to defend. Interesting concept compared to our prior discussions of the gravity that players like Reddick had.
 

donutogre

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This SImmons stuff is insane. I’ve never seen anyone in his head this much about shooting free throws. I get he’s not a shooter, but I cannot remember seeing someone shoot in the 30s for an extended stretch like this. It’s awful to watch.

I haven’t watched much NBA in recent years but I’m trying to get back into it, and I didn’t understand what the big issue with the 76ers is… I’m getting a better idea now.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This SImmons stuff is insane. I’ve never seen anyone in his head this much about shooting free throws. I get he’s not a shooter, but I cannot remember seeing someone shoot in the 30s for an extended stretch like this. It’s awful to watch.

I haven’t watched much NBA in recent years but I’m trying to get back into it, and I didn’t understand what the big issue with the 76ers is… I’m getting a better idea now.
Nick Anderson’s 4 consecutive missed FT’s in The Finals for Orlando after hitting 70+% for the year was followed by him shooting them at 40% the following year and he later had another sub-50% FT season. He’s the first guy who comes to mind.
 

bigq

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Nick Anderson’s 4 consecutive missed FT’s in The Finals for Orlando after hitting 70+% for the year was followed by him shooting them at 40% the following year and he later had another sub-50% FT season. He’s the first guy who comes to mind.
Simmons is a career 60% FT shooter and his playoff FT rate prior to this season was 65%. The 33% FT rate he is putting up this post season while a SS is shockingly bad.

DeAndre Jordan's and Andre Drummond who are both about 40% FT shooters in the playoffs for their careers are reasonable comps. Shaq had playoff seasons where he was in the high 30s and Wilt had a couple of playoff seasons in the low 30s at the tail end of his career.

Interesting company. Maybe Simmons should be considered a big and not a PG.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Simmons is a career 60% FT shooter and his playoff FT rate prior to this season was 65%. The 33% FT rate he is putting up this post season while a SS is shockingly bad.

DeAndre Jordan's and Andre Drummond who are both about 40% FT shooters in the playoffs for their careers are reasonable comps. Shaq had playoff seasons where he was in the high 30s and Wilt had a couple of playoff seasons in the low 30s at the tail end of his career.

Interesting company. Maybe Simmons should be considered a big and not a PG.
The reason I equate Ben to Nick and not to Shaq/Andre is bc as you said.....Ben had prior (moderate) success shooting FT’s prior to this season, similar to Nick, while Shaq and Andre were always horrific. We expected that from them......there isn’t a logical reason to have expected Ben to shoot them at 33% for the playoffs this year.
 

bigq

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The reason I equate Ben to Nick and not to Shaq/Andre is bc as you said.....Ben had prior (moderate) success shooting FT’s prior to this season, similar to Nick, while Shaq and Andre were always horrific. We expected that from them......there isn’t a logical reason to have expected Ben to shoot them at 33% for the playoffs this year.
Agree. Simmons is an enigma. His FT rate in the playoffs has been on a declining trend throughout his career but I don't think anyone would have predicted he would completely fall of the cliff. I hope he can turn it around. I think Doc pulling him late in games while understandable and necessary is really messing with Simmons' confidence.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Agree. Simmons is an enigma. His FT rate in the playoffs has been on a declining trend throughout his career but I don't think anyone would have predicted he would completely fall of the cliff. I hope he can turn it around. I think Doc pulling him late in games while understandable and necessary is really messing with Simmons' confidence.
In some ways, he's similar to Rondo but Rondo had 3 HOFs playing alongside him and while the 3 ball was definitely a big part of the game, it wasn't as big as it is now.

I think a lot of it just comes down to Ben Simmons being incredibly overrated and his skill set isn't even that rare anymore. There are plenty of big men who can pass the rock nowadays. Is he really a max player?

Would anyone take Simmons over Bam? Bam wasn't all that different from Ben his rookie year but he's slowly extended his range from 4.3 to 7.6 feet, with a slight increase all 4 years. He's also a much better FT shooter. I love Bam but this shouldn't be a debatable decision and for some reason, it is.

Playing with Embiid doesn't do him any favors either.

These are the teams I think Simmons would fit on well. I'm not sure how well they match up with Philly trade wise though.
Brooklyn
Boston
LAC
Charlotte
Toronto
Cleveland
Portland
GS
SAS

I'd love to see him in Charlotte. It's possible him and Ball would clash too though.
 

Kliq

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You can't compare Simmons to Rondo, or Jason Kidd, or any other PG that was a great passer but struggled shooting the ball. For starters, those guys peaked during a time when it was okay to have a PG with a shaky jumper. The other difference is that those guys also at least took outside shots to try and keep defenses honest. People whine about Giannis taking threes, but if he makes 2/5 of them it can be a big difference maker in a game and you know that he earnestly is trying to get better by taking those shots in games. Rondo and Kidd were also at their peaks, the smartest, toughest players on the court and commanded their teams. Simmons is passive and clearly the beta to Embiid's alpha status.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You can't compare Simmons to Rondo, or Jason Kidd, or any other PG that was a great passer but struggled shooting the ball. For starters, those guys peaked during a time when it was okay to have a PG with a shaky jumper. The other difference is that those guys also at least took outside shots to try and keep defenses honest. People whine about Giannis taking threes, but if he makes 2/5 of them it can be a big difference maker in a game and you know that he earnestly is trying to get better by taking those shots in games. Rondo and Kidd were also at their peaks, the smartest, toughest players on the court and commanded their teams. Simmons is passive and clearly the beta to Embiid's alpha status.
Rondo was not at his peak when the C's won a title. He was a 2nd year PG. I guess that's on me for not being more specific.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Simmons shouldn't be comped to PGs at all, because he's not a PG, he's a big who can pass
That's a huge part of his problem. He's miscast. And bigs who can pass the ball aren't all that rare nowadays. I don't see how he's better than Bam or even Sabonis. Maybe he's a better passer than both but not enough to make him better overall.
 

the moops

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I think a lot of it just comes down to Ben Simmons being incredibly overrated and his skill set isn't even that rare anymore. There are plenty of big men who can pass the rock nowadays. Is he really a max player?
There are what, 50 max contracts out there? Maybe 40? He is definitely worth a max contract
 

Kliq

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Simmons shouldn't be comped to PGs at all, because he's not a PG, he's a big who can pass
People keep saying this but it simply isn't true. He handles the ball in transition, and his sole value is being able to run a fast break and drive-and-kick. He isn't used like Jokic, or Sabonis, who operate out of the post, pass from the elbows, and set a lot of screens. Perhaps he could transition into this role at some point, but he IS a point guard, he just has a lot of flaws.
 

radsoxfan

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There are what, 50 max contracts out there? Maybe 40? He is definitely worth a max contract
There are plenty of max and near max contracts out there that are disasters and teams would love to get rid of. I don't know the total number of max contracts, but if there are 50 that doesn't mean 50 players are worth it. Plenty of negative assets floating around, like Kemba.

At the moment my hunch is that Simmons is about neutral to slightly positive asset on his contract. A top 30 ish player at the age of 24 making 35-40M over the next 4 years. Still can dream on some improvement though big red flags there.

I think some teams would probably consider him a negative asset depending on roster construction, but there are at least handful that would take him for free or pay a small/moderate price.

But he has definitely been a huge disappointment since age 21, we're talking like a 10th percentiles outcome (or worse ) since then. Everyone assumed he would have huge excess value on a max deal, and thats not the case.
 

cheech13

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There are what, 50 max contracts out there? Maybe 40? He is definitely worth a max contract
A team can easily fit two max contracts on their books without creating significant cap problems, and three is possible if you are willing to pay the tax to round out your roster. In that sense you’d expect the top 60 to 75 players in the league to be “max” guys.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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A team can easily fit two max contracts on their books without creating significant cap problems, and there is possible if you are willing to pay the tax to round out your roster. In that sense you’d expect the top 60 to 75 players in the league to be “max” guys.
There were 43 in 20-21.
 

radsoxfan

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Amazing how much negative value is on that list. Being a top 50 player doesn't mean you automatically deserve a max contract slot. If you are making max and the 50th best player in the NBA, your team probably was hoping you would be better right now and are disappointed.

Also, it's more complicated because some of the top players aren't even max guys yet due to age (Zion for example). The NBA salary structure for young players isn't as extreme as the MLB, but it still underpays the young superstars still on their rookie deals. You have to pretty much remove those guys from the discussion if you are coming up with these contract/value rankings. Zion obviously takes up a top 50 player ranking spot but that doesn't equate to a max deal yet.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Amazing how much negative value is on that list. Being a top 50 player doesn't mean you automatically deserve a max contract slot. If you are making max and the 50th best player in the NBA, your team probably was hoping you would be better right now and are disappointed.

Also, it's more complicated because some of the top players aren't even max guys yet due to age (Zion for example). The NBA salary structure for young players isn't as extreme as the MLB, but it still underpays the young superstars still on their rookie deals. You have to pretty much remove those guys from the discussion if you are coming up with these contract/value rankings. Zion obviously takes up a top 50 player ranking spot but that doesn't equate to a max deal yet.
Getting max quality players on rookie deals makes it very easy to build a contender because of the ridiculous value it offers. Even finding a rotation player in the draft has huge value.

While the underpay isn't as extreme in MLB, the impact it has on the team is far more extreme. 1 player changes everything. We kinda saw it with the C's but Tatum and Brown weren't far enough along yet.
 

cheech13

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Amazing how much negative value is on that list. Being a top 50 player doesn't mean you automatically deserve a max contract slot. If you are making max and the 50th best player in the NBA, your team probably was hoping you would be better right now and are disappointed.

Also, it's more complicated because some of the top players aren't even max guys yet due to age (Zion for example). The NBA salary structure for young players isn't as extreme as the MLB, but it still underpays the young superstars still on their rookie deals. You have to pretty much remove those guys from the discussion if you are coming up with these contract/value rankings. Zion obviously takes up a top 50 player ranking spot but that doesn't equate to a max deal yet.
Actually I think it is the opposite. Because you get so much excess value on rookie contracts it is okay to “overpay” a veteran on a max deal. Also the back-end negative value is skewed by the fact that All-Star guys are generally underpaid in the early years of their max deals, as they contribute a lot more in value than the 25% of the cap they get.
 

radsoxfan

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Actually I think it is the opposite. Because you get so much excess value on rookie contracts it is okay to “overpay” a veteran on a max deal. Also the back-end negative value is skewed by the fact that All-Star guys are generally underpaid in the early years of their max deals, as they contribute a lot more in value than the 25% of the cap they get.
I hear that, I didn't put in the caveat about young players as a reason you should have less players making the max. Just mentioning it as a complicating factor in the analysis, but I wasn't very clear.

My general point is that if there are 50-ish max contracts, I'm not sure 50 max eligible guys are positive assets on a max deal. A lot of players at the tail end of the group are contracts the teams wish they could take back.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, probably, He's just not a max guy I'd want to build around or move another max guy for (ones in their prime, not Kemba).
The term “Max guy” is thrown around sometimes as if this is the player you build around which isn’t necessarily the case. A good team can fit 3 max contracts comfortably. The confusion has to do with the best max players actually being UNDER paid as they cannot go beyond a max.
 

donutogre

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Nick Anderson’s 4 consecutive missed FT’s in The Finals for Orlando after hitting 70+% for the year was followed by him shooting them at 40% the following year and he later had another sub-50% FT season. He’s the first guy who comes to mind.
I definitely thought about Nick Anderson, but had forgotten how his overall percentage fell off a cliff after those misses. That's wild, especially considering he was still shooting the 3-ball at a decent percentage.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The term “Max guy” is thrown around sometimes as if this is the player you build around which isn’t necessarily the case. A good team can fit 3 max contracts comfortably. The confusion has to do with the best max players actually being UNDER paid as they cannot go beyond a max.
I'd take him on the C's all day at max. I just wouldn't want to build a franchise around the guy. It doesn't mean I wouldn't take him with my 3rd round pick if he was available in an NBA mock draft. I'm just not sure he'd be in my first 2 picks. This assumes a serpentine drafting order. Last in round 1 goes first in round 2. If had one of the first 4-5 picks, maybe I'd take him at the end of round 2. That's not much different than round 3 though because the picks wouldn't be far apart.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I definitely thought about Nick Anderson, but had forgotten how his overall percentage fell off a cliff after those misses. That's wild, especially considering he was still shooting the 3-ball at a decent percentage.
I know we talk about next year being crucial in Romeo establishing his value but coming off this train wreck it is also going to be a crucial one for Simmons as well. ReggieCleveland responded in the other thread that the game may be swung so far away from non-shooters that Ben’s value, even if he overcomes the FT yips, may never reach where it has been.

Edit: Honestly I feel similar about Giannis in how the game is affecting his value (to me anyway).
 
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donutogre

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I know we talk about next year being crucial in Romeo establishing his value but coming off this train wreck it is also going to be a crucial one for Simmons as well. ReggieCleveland responded in the other thread that the game may be swung so far away from non-shooters that Ben’s value, even if he overcomes the FT yips, may never reach where it has been.

Edit: Honestly I feel similar about Giannis in how the game is affecting his value (to me anyway).
Yeah it feels like Giannis's star has dropped a good bit this year, at least based on what I'm reading here. I think there's some hyperbole around that, because almost everything I've ever seen has him among the NBA's elite, but it does feel like his flaws have been exposed a bit this season. I'll be interested to see if he reworks any parts of his game in response. I don't have a good feeling about Simmons doing that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not sprinting on your injured hammy is savvy according to Doris.
I actually agree with her under these circumstances. Primarily half court game without Kyrie and a 3-2 lead. There won’t be many instances where this hurts the Nets and if there is they probably aren’t going to win anyway.
 

JCizzle

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It's amazing that we have two guys like Simmons and Giannis still in the tournament. Those FT numbers are horrific.