2021 MVP watch

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Too early? Who cares.

Top 5
1. Tom Brady: 66.2%, 1,767 yds, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating, averaging 353.4 yards passing per game, offense is scoring 33.4 points a game
2. Kyler Murray: 75.2%, 1,512 yds, 10 td, 4 int, 113.0 rating, add in 3 rushing touchdowns, team is undefeated at 5-0
3. Derrick Henry: 640 yds rushing, 128.0 rush yds/g, 7 td, carrying the Tennessee offense
4. Matthew Stafford: 68.0%, 1,587 yds, 12 td, 3 int, 113.2 rating
5. Lamar Jackson: 67.1%, 1,519 yds, 8 td, 3 int, 104.4 rating, add in 341 rush yds and 2 rush td

You can make a case for a bunch of people besides these guys being in the top 5 and I fully expect some disagreement with my list.
 

Silverdude2167

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Oct 9, 2006
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Too early? Who cares.

Top 5
1. Tom Brady: 66.2%, 1,767 yds, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating, averaging 353.4 yards passing per game, offense is scoring 33.4 points a game
2. Kyler Murray: 75.2%, 1,512 yds, 10 td, 4 int, 113.0 rating, add in 3 rushing touchdowns, team is undefeated at 5-0
3. Derrick Henry: 640 yds rushing, 128.0 rush yds/g, 7 td, carrying the Tennessee offense
4. Matthew Stafford: 68.0%, 1,587 yds, 12 td, 3 int, 113.2 rating
5. Lamar Jackson: 67.1%, 1,519 yds, 8 td, 3 int, 104.4 rating, add in 341 rush yds and 2 rush td

You can make a case for a bunch of people besides these guys being in the top 5 and I fully expect some disagreement with my list.
Obviously meaningless at this point, but how do you put Brady above Kyler?
 

Jungleland

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Aug 2, 2009
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Herbert is nearly identical to Stafford right now - 67.1% completion rate, 1576 yards, 13-3 TD-Int, 104.7 passer rating and another TD on the ground. He's in the conversation for sure. I also don't think Brady over Kyler is crazy right now when you factor in two fewer interceptions and that Brady has more yards and TDs even with Kyler's rushing, but obviously the two are pretty much tied atop the list.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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Herbert needs to be on that list. Aside from stats, he has as much national buzz as anyone.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Herbert needs to be on that list. Aside from stats, he has as much national buzz as anyone.
I wrestled between Herbert and Lamar. Josh Allen hasn't been as good as these other guys, but others may disagree. That's cool. That's why we talk about this on a discussion board!
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Sep 12, 2003
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Too early? Who cares.

Top 5
1. Tom Brady: 66.2%, 1,767 yds, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating, averaging 353.4 yards passing per game, offense is scoring 33.4 points a game
2. Kyler Murray: 75.2%, 1,512 yds, 10 td, 4 int, 113.0 rating, add in 3 rushing touchdowns, team is undefeated at 5-0
3. Derrick Henry: 640 yds rushing, 128.0 rush yds/g, 7 td, carrying the Tennessee offense
4. Matthew Stafford: 68.0%, 1,587 yds, 12 td, 3 int, 113.2 rating
5. Lamar Jackson: 67.1%, 1,519 yds, 8 td, 3 int, 104.4 rating, add in 341 rush yds and 2 rush td

You can make a case for a bunch of people besides these guys being in the top 5 and I fully expect some disagreement with my list.
I wonder if the voters will take into account the 17th game. If Henry leads the Titans to the playoffs and continues at this pace, he breaks ED's record....but still (very very small difference) less per game than last year. And he got 0 votes last year. If the Titans finish 12-4 or better (highly unlikely) I can see him getting consideration for a "career" MVP.

Right now Vegas odds are

Allen
Murray
Hebert
Prescott
Brady

To me (if the season ended today), this seems reasonable. But Jackson's performance last week tells me he could easily bump Herbert out of the top-5. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Allen- 62.3%/1370/12TD/2INT 35 rushes for 188 yards and 2 TD
Prescott- 73.9%/1368/13TD/3INT
Herbert- 67.1%/1576/13TD/3INT. 1 rushing TD
 

TFisNEXT

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Jul 21, 2005
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How has Josh Allen not been mentioned?
He hasn't been quite at MVP levels yet this year (though he's starting to pick it up now). His shit game against PIT in the opener is weighing him down a bit but he could easily be right back in the convo with couple more great games here in the next few weeks. I have Allen lurking just below that first tier with guys like Dak Prescott and maybe Mahomes (who has been uncharacteristically turnover-prone the first few games).
 

rodderick

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As usual it'll go to the QB on the team with the best record unless someone has an insane statistical season. For that reason, and considering the remaining schedules, I have Josh Allen as the front runner with Brady close behind. Don't see how the Bills lose more than 3 games going forward and the Bucs don't face a murderer's row either. I've seen this song and dance with Kyler before, wake me up when he's playing at this level in December. Herbert, Lamar and Dak are the other ones who have a shot.
 

djbayko

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I wonder if the voters will take into account the 17th game. If Henry leads the Titans to the playoffs and continues at this pace, he breaks ED's record....but still (very very small difference) less per game than last year. And he got 0 votes last year. If the Titans finish 12-4 or better (highly unlikely) I can see him getting consideration for a "career" MVP.

Right now Vegas odds are

Allen
Murray
Hebert
Prescott
Brady

To me (if the season ended today), this seems reasonable. But Jackson's performance last week tells me he could easily bump Herbert out of the top-5. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Allen- 62.3%/1370/12TD/2INT 35 rushes for 188 yards and 2 TD
Prescott- 73.9%/1368/13TD/3INT
Herbert- 67.1%/1576/13TD/3INT. 1 rushing TD
It depends on what sportsbook you look at. Jackson is in the Top 5 at some. MVP odds and order are all over the place and it doesn't really matter much since there's so much juice on them.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
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Derrick Henry is currently on pace for 2,200 yards and 28 Touchdowns, so he is firmly in the conversation.
 

Van Everyman

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I don't know if anecdotal stuff matters in the NFL MVP race, but BUF's final play last night on offense seemed like a total fail by Allen in a huge spot. Maybe somebody can argue that his LG (or HC) let him down but it appeared Allen lost his footing and, besides, ran it into the part of the line with the most pressure. If sneaks matter, Tom Brady he is not.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Derrick Henry is currently on pace for 2,200 yards and 28 Touchdowns, so he is firmly in the conversation.
Henry's last four seasons:

53 g, 1,058 att, 5,409 yds, 5.1 y/a, 55 td

Avg per 16 games: 319 att, 1,632 yds, 17 td

That's pretty amazing. If he was more of a pass threat he'd be in the conversation as one of the all-time greats, at least at their peak. The guy is an absolute monster.
 

Kliq

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Henry's last four seasons:

53 g, 1,058 att, 5,409 yds, 5.1 y/a, 55 td

Avg per 16 games: 319 att, 1,632 yds, 17 td

That's pretty amazing. If he was more of a pass threat he'd be in the conversation as one of the all-time greats, at least at their peak. The guy is an absolute monster.
I said it yesterday in the game thread but Henry is the ideal physical specimen for a RB. He is what LeBron James was for Small Forwards; just an unimaginable combo of size and speed that make the world-class athletes trying to stop them look completely overwhelmed. The way he blows past the secondary on the 75 yard run last night is insane.

View: https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1450267157573496832?s=20
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Henry: 6'3", 247 pounds, 4.54 in the 40, 37-inch vertical. He hit 21.8 mph on that run you just posted, @Kliq, the fastest any player has run in the NFL so far this year.

The man is absolutely amazing.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Mike Mularkey gave Demarco Murray shitloads of carries in Henry’s first two years; I don’t know why, other than to speculate that Murray’s salary perhaps spurred them to not relegate him to 50-75 carries. Henry started blossoming in 2018 under Vrabel, though even there new signee Dion Lewis got a ton of low-efficiency carries.
 

Cellar-Door

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Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.
Some of it was just volume. He averaged 4.5 a carry as a rookie, but was stuck behind DeMarco Murray. Second year he was clearly better than Murray, but still split carries almost evenly behind a not great line. 3rd year he averaged almost 5 YPC, the rest of the offense was just bad, he had already become elite. Then the next 3 he's been getting tons of carries and the QB play is better.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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They had DeMarco Murray, who was pretty good in Henry's early years.

2016
Murray: 293 att, 1,287 yds, 4.4 y/a, 9 td
Henry: 110 att, 490 yds, 4.5 y/a, 5 td

2017
Murray: 184 att, 659 yds, 3.6 y/a, 6 td
Henry: 176 att, 744 yds, 4.2 y/a, 5 td

2018
Henry: 215 att, 1,059 yds, 4.9 y/a, 12 td
Lewis: 155 att, 517 yds, 3.3 y/a, 1 td

So in 2016 Murray was a quality incumbent, a trusted veteran, and had the lion's share of the carries. But obviously Henry was really good whenever he touched the ball. In 2017 Henry had surpassed Murray in production but it was about 50-50 in terms of touches, but you could see that Henry was on his way to being the man. And in 2018 Henry was the #1 back, but Dion Lewis was now there as a change of pace back. Only in 2019 did Henry become the totally dominant bell cow (303 rush attempts; #2 guy had just 54).

EDIT: I was looking up these numbers while a couple others chimed in, so this is a repeat.
 

Big McCorkle

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Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.
It's Ryan Tannehill. Both the in-season and career splits before and after Tannehill got the starting job speak for themselves.
 

Jungleland

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While Demarco's departure, Tannehill's arrival, and the coaching changes all helped quite a bit, there's also a pretty fun bit of legend-building in the "Eddie George taught him how to be effective" narrative:

"He asked me flat-out what I thought about his game," George said. "And I was very honest. I said, look, it's not about you hitting the home run. We know you can hit the home run. It's what you can do consistently between the tackles, and it comes down to one fundamental thing. It comes down to you imposing your will on defenders. You are too big not to use that as your strength. You have to force guys to tackle you. Make one cut and go."
George told Henry his legs appeared "to go dead after contact" and he needed to keep them moving.
George gave Henry a specific example from the team's game against the Chargers in London, which George attended. It was a second quarter play, an off tackle play to the left, when George felt Henry turned contact down against a Chargers defender, despite having a big size advantage. From one big back to the other, George hammered Henry about it.
"I'm like: There was an opportunity for you to square him up and run through him and impose your will on him, and one of a few things were going to happen. You were either going to run him over, or you were going to hurt him, or you were going to run through the tackle," George said. "And that sets a tone when you do that, and it establishes who you are and what you are going to be about. I felt like there was an opportunity lost for you to do that."
I love watch Derrick Henry run the football a lot - if he can keep even an approximation of this up for a few more years he'll go down as one of my favorite players of all time.
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
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Not to derail on the Henry subject, but Dak probably belongs near the top of the MVP candidates. He's legit plus the usual Dallas hype machine.

73% completion, 1,813 yards 16 TD, 4 INT 115 rating.