2021 Draft

jeff_moffett

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I don’t post here very often and don’t want to sound like Captain Obvious, but the first college senior drafted will indicate what they’ve agreed to over/under pay. If they have Mayer at or under slot, they might over pay in the 2nd or 3rd round and draft the senior in the 4th or 5th. If they draft the college senior in the 2nd, we’ll know they went all in on Mayer. If no college senior is drafted tomorrow, they’re sticking with slot bonuses.

College seniors typically agree to $1-$10k kind of bonuses and have an agreement in writing before the draft. Get one of those in the 4th round and the Sox have that slot to spend. The Sox 4th round slot is north of $550k. The 5th is $410k and change. That’s where you save money for “over pay”.

They may have talked Mayer into agreeing to a slot bonus because:
A: you won’t have to play for the Pirates or other crappy team
B: said crappy team wouldn’t give full slot so they could overpay later round picks. They want quantity and HS SS are a gamble
 

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I don’t post here very often and don’t want to sound like Captain Obvious, but the first college senior drafted will indicate what they’ve agreed to over/under pay. If they have Mayer at or under slot, they might over pay in the 2nd or 3rd round and draft the senior in the 4th or 5th. If they draft the college senior in the 2nd, we’ll know they went all in on Mayer. If no college senior is drafted tomorrow, they’re sticking with slot bonuses.

College seniors typically agree to $1-$10k kind of bonuses and have an agreement in writing before the draft. Get one of those in the 4th round and the Sox have that slot to spend. The Sox 4th round slot is north of $550k. The 5th is $410k and change. That’s where you save money for “over pay”.

They may have talked Mayer into agreeing to a slot bonus because:
A: you won’t have to play for the Pirates or other crappy team
B: said crappy team wouldn’t give full slot so they could overpay later round picks. They want quantity and HS SS are a gamble
This is helpful. Thanks.
 

burstnbloom

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I'd be really surprised if guys like Hill, Fabian or Baez are the pick at 40. I think they need to save some money and with all the holdovers from last years draft in college, there are legit prospects through like..round 10. I don't think they want to blow their whole bonus pool on Mayer and Jaden Hill (as much as I would love that.) Ian Cundall suggested on twitter they'd maybe take the Lefty from Fordham. That makes a lot of sense to me. Mikulski is a power lefty who re-worked his delivery this year according to MLB.com. More importantly he's a decent prospect out of a less than premiere college who is already 22. He will not be hard to sign while still providing value at the slot. I'd guess someone like him or Bryce Miller or Dominic Hamel from looking at their top 100. They'd likely save a bunch of their slot at 40 with one of those guys to cover Mayer and get back on track to draft some useful players at around slot later on so as not to punt the rest of the draft.

I also think some of those dropping will have a lot of suitors. Baltimore, KC, Seattle, SF, STL, NYY, TB, LA and Minnesota have already gone underslot with one or more picks and will be lurking on those big bonus kids that are falling. The tigers are a good example of what we can expect. They saved money with Jobe round one and picked up Ty Madden in the comp round pick 32. He was ranked number 9. Those two picks are worth about $9.5 mil and they pick 39 as well. I bet they take someone like Will Taylor and split the $11m of their first three picks with three top 20 talents.
 

sodenj5

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At #4, they know his number. You don’t draft a player at #4 who you don’t have an outline of an agreement with. They’ve done work on EVERYONE in the top 300. I read something back in late June about the Sox trying to manipulate their way into getting Mayer to fall to them. A player can give different teams different numbers.

As far as leverage, he can go to college and play three years and try to move up, but there are an infinite number of positions below #4 and only 3 above it. The chances are slim that he’d turn in this lottery ticket for another one in three years.
This is basically it. Plus, if Mayer manages to be the consensus 1-1 in three years, there are no guarantees that a team like the Pirates don’t pass on him again in favor of going under slot.

Him getting drafted in the top 4 by a big market team is as good or better than getting drafted 1-1. Sounds like both he and the Sox are confident they’ll get a deal hammered out fairly quickly.
 

RedOctober3829

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This is basically it. Plus, if Mayer manages to be the consensus 1-1 in three years, there are no guarantees that a team like the Pirates don’t pass on him again in favor of going under slot.

Him getting drafted in the top 4 by a big market team is as good or better than getting drafted 1-1. Sounds like both he and the Sox are confident they’ll get a deal hammered out fairly quickly.
Especially to a big market team that is not in a rebuild. To go to a winning organization at the top of the MLB draft is really, really rare.
 

RoDaddy

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Where is everyone - is there another draft thread for today? Early second round so we might get a good one here - Pedey 2.0 anyone?
 

RoDaddy

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"Fabian is projected as the No. 23 overall prospect by MLB.com and the No. 27 overall prospect by Baseball America."

MLB scouting report:
There are plenty of things to like about Jud Fabian. He can run well, he can play center, he’s got a good arm, and there’s plenty of power in his game. That power has been a breakthrough thing in 2021, though it did start to show last year before the season was cancelled. The 20-year-old hit 20 home runs in 59 games for the Gators as a junior.

But there’s a big question mark on his scouting report, too – how much will he hit? He hit just .249 in 2021 for Florida. That came mostly due to the fact that he struck out 79 times in 269 trips to the plate. That’s a 29% strikeout rate. Against college pitching. His strikeout rate was lower in his first two year, but it was still higher than you’d like to see from a legitimate prospect. Because of the concerns with his ability to make contact he’s an extremely high risk player despite coming from a high profile school in the SEC. There’s a ton of upside here if he can figure out how to make more contact, but it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too.
 

burstnbloom

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I'm definitely worried about the swing and miss with Fabian as he strikes out A LOT. He hit 20 bombs in the SEC this year and he can probably play in Center so there is a lot to dream on there in terms of upside. You have to believe the Red Sox think they can help him with his in zone discipline. Hard not to trust them. Mayer and Fabian is a lot of talent to add to this system.
 

TimScribble

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Fabian worked to implement his new approach, a simplified load with a removal of his leg kick, but it took time. His mindset had shifted, but his muscle memory needed constant repetitions to catch up before he could feel assured of the process. Things began to click a few weeks after that series against the Gamecocks when the Gators got to Auburn, and Fabian went from a 37.4% K-rate on April 6 to a more palatable 29.3% rate by the end of the season.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-jud-fabian-cut-down-on-strikeouts-built-confidence-ahead-of-2021-mlb-draft/
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm definitely worried about the swing and miss with Fabian as he strikes out A LOT. He hit 20 bombs in the SEC this year and he can probably play in Center so there is a lot to dream on there in terms of upside. You have to believe the Red Sox think they can help him with his in zone discipline. Hard not to trust them. Mayer and Fabian is a lot of talent to add to this system.
79 strikeouts in 225 AB's is terrifying, but the power tool is big time. .249/.364/.560 was his slash line this year.
 

RoDaddy

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I'm definitely worried about the swing and miss with Fabian as he strikes out A LOT. He hit 20 bombs in the SEC this year and he can probably play in Center so there is a lot to dream on there in terms of upside. You have to believe the Red Sox think they can help him with his in zone discipline. Hard not to trust them. Mayer and Fabian is a lot of talent to add to this system.
According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."

Sounds like Dalbec - do we want to go through that again?!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."

Sounds like Dalbec - do we want to go through that again?!
Why not? Every player is different. Dalbec is a major leaguer right now, despite all the bellyaching about his swing and miss proclivities. If this kid can perform similarly (or you know, learn better contact skills), seems like a win to me.
 

nighthob

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What’re the odds that Baez lasts until #75? I’d really like to see him in Boston.
 

joe dokes

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So it seems that until now Bloom's MO has been to build minor league depth -- getting multiple players at a time. Having done quite a bit of that, now he's adding top end talent. Sounds like a good recipe.
 

burstnbloom

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According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."

Sounds like Dalbec - do we want to go through that again?!
Dalbec was a top 100 prospect who has a .700 OPS in MLB. If Fabian can do that and play Center field, he's probably a top 50-75 prospect and it would be an outstanding outcome for this pick.
 

Sox Puppet

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Not to be a downer, but here's Keith Law's analysis of Fabian (who has him at #59 for this draft):

Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enough to put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside, but there is just no indication he’s going to be able to hit.
 

burstnbloom

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Overall in the draft, or overall in the minors?

I’d have a hard time believing the latter.
All of those rankings are amateur ranks for draft purposes. He was a 1st round grade prospect by most of the publications. Law and the Athletic being the outlier.
 

curly2

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Dalbec is a major leaguer right now, despite all the bellyaching about his swing and miss proclivities.
He’s a major-leaguer, true, but one with a minus-1.2 WAR this season. I have nothing against him personally and I hope he improves but he’s been really bad.

Hopefully Fabian can be better, and his good CF defense would make him more valuable than Dalbec if he puts up a similar line.
 

TimScribble

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Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enough to put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside, but there is just no indication he’s going to be able to hit.
No history of making adjustments except the recent adjustments.