2021 Draft

pokey_reese

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JBJ_HOF

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Callis said on his podcast today basically said that Pitt is taking the hitter that gives them the best deal at 1, and that Watson is going 1 or 2, Mayer 1 or 3, and Davis is going 1 or 4.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Callis said on his podcast today basically said that Pitt is taking the hitter that gives them the best deal at 1, and that Watson is going 1 or 2, Mayer 1 or 3, and Davis is going 1 or 4.
Did Callis say Kahlil Watson or Jordan Lawlar? I imagine Watson would give the Pirates quite a deal since signing under slot would be his only chance of being drafted in the first five picks.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Callis said Kahlil Watson 1 or 2. Lawler could still go #1 if he takes the best deal, but apparently Rangers are big time on Watson at #2.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Lawler, Mayer, Leiter, and Rocker are ALL going to be available, and I’m going to be confused and unhappy and complain about whoever the Sox take, cuz they did not take one of the other 3 who shouldn’t have been there!
 

Hairps

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Callis 6/9 mock draft:
4. Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The best case for the Red Sox is that they get a chance to choose either Leiter or Davis, and the latter gets to No. 4 if the Pirates pass on him. Boston is the first club that appears to be considering Rocker, though it's unclear if they'd take him over the high school shortstops.
1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Sal Frelick

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
Jordan Lawlar: 1 (Mayo 6/2)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021-june-9?t=mlb-draft-coverage
 
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amRadio

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I really believe at the moment Rocker is the better prospect and with the need for SP and Rocker's pedigree coming out of Vandy, I'll be disappointed with Davis even though he's super projectable too. Maybe that's shortsighted - I don't know anything about the SP depth in this draft overall. I know I've posted his stats in here so many times it's annoying, but Rocker dominated this year in the regular season and out performed Leiter, in my opinion. It's close, but I think Rocker is special; he could be David Price 2: Right Handed Boogaloo. I'm probably wrong and just being reactionary to my binky sliding in the draft.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I'm having a hard time understanding why Rocker and Leiter have dropped out of the top 4 in various mock drafts. Playing in the SEC:

Rocker: 98 innings, 144 Ks, 2.93 ERA, .91 WHIP, 13.2 K/9.
Leiter: 89 innings, 146 Ks, 2.22 ERA, .87 WHIP, 14.8 K/9.

Rocker's stats have improved across the board since 2019 (except for walk rate at 3 walks/9 innings). Leiter's stats are phenomenal (again with a walk rate at 3.8 walks/9 innings). Is control the concern?

Comparing those two with a college catcher with suspect defensive skills and high school middle infielders, I'd go with Rocker or Leiter every time.
 

amRadio

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Glad I'm not alone on that.

I'm assuming those lines for Rocker and Leiter include playoffs? I guess Rocker got hit pretty hard in the playoffs. Given how much he improved overall this season, I'm not too worried about it.

I should probably come off my issues with Leiter's walk rate because his season line this year was absurd.
 

cantor44

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Let's just hope the Sox don't get Trey Ball clever with this pick. There's less tea reading needed with dominant college players than with high school kids. And Leiter and Rocker have been dominating at the highest level in the NCAA. I, too, hope one of the two (preferably Leiter) fall to the Sox.
 

Rovin Romine

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IMO, the real question is what any prospect needs to do to make their overall package work in the majors. If the odds are poor the make the jump, they have no real value to the club, apart from trade value. But often you have to trade while the shine is still on the apple, which can be tough. (At this point, who wouldn't love to rewind and have traded younger Chavis for an average 1b type.)

Leiter and Rocker seem close but both have to develop their secondary pitches. So you pick the one that has the better chance of doing that in a way that's likely to be successful on the ML level.

After that though. . .
Davis's best case scenario is basically Swihart. No guarantees there. And we already have Wong, who has more or less the same potential upside.
HS shortstops, unless extraordinary, are all too often Chavis, Dansby Swanson, etc. more than Carlos Correa. (I mean, they're solid choices as most are tradable early for MLB pieces, but I think with the development window of the Sox, they'd do better to draft someone more ready, and acquire the usual lottery tickets as they go.)

The draft is too above my pay-grade to have an active opinion, but if they can't get the most-prime college pitchers, I'd almost rather they draft someone like a Michael McGreevy, who already has control and (from what the scouts say) good pitching sense, and has shown he can develop pitches without loosing those qualities.

As opposed to a "plus arm" guy who might or might not shine in a bullpen role 5 years from now. Or someone you draft to retool what's worked for them so far, and so start at square one again.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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BC catcher Tony Sanchez was picked 4th overall in the 2009 draft by Pittsburgh, although that was likely driven by signability.
Anyone know if there's ever been a study that looks at the "signability" draft picks and see how the strategy of being able to go overslot later in the draft works out? Seems like it sounds like a good idea but given how the expected value of draft picks crater as one goes farther down the draft order, I would wonder how smart it really ends up being.
 

nighthob

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I'm having a hard time understanding why Rocker and Leiter have dropped out of the top 4 in various mock drafts.
I think it's just the reality that the changes to the game have prioritized hitting, while teams see that they can get by with middle of the rotation starters so long as the bullpen's good.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Glad I'm not alone on that.

I'm assuming those lines for Rocker and Leiter include playoffs? I guess Rocker got hit pretty hard in the playoffs. Given how much he improved overall this season, I'm not too worried about it.

I should probably come off my issues with Leiter's walk rate because his season line this year was absurd.
Yes- these stats are current.

Leiter lost to Ole Miss on 5/28 but only gave up 3 runs in 6 2/3 innings. For the season, he's given up 4 or more runs twice. He's given up more than 5 hits in a game one time.
Rocker lost to Arkansas on 5/27. He gave up 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings. For the season, he's given up 4 or more runs three times. He's given up more than 5 hits in a game two times.
 

Rovin Romine

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Fun Link: 1st Round HS SS picks. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=SS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=1&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Old friends Ryan Dent, Casey Kelly, Michael Chavis, and Gavin Cecchini (kinda-sorta), show we have not much historical skill with this.
(Still have hopes for Christian Arroyo though, 2013, 1st round HS SS pick for the Giants.)

In the second round we recently grabbed Derrik Gibson and Matthew Lugo.

***
The list of first round RS HS draftees who produced (thusfar) more than 2.5 WAR over their careers:
Jim Rice - 47
Bruce Hurst - 34
Trot Nixon - 21
Ken Brett - 16
Billy Conigliaro - 4.6
 

Minneapolis Millers

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After that though. . .
Davis's best case scenario is basically Swihart. No guarantees there. And we already have Wong, who has more or less the same potential upside.
This confuses me. What is your opinion based on? Davis walks more than he whiffs. His batting eye is extraordinary, and his contact skills are excellent. He has good pop. Even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate, why couldn’t he be a good average, great OBP, solid power guy in an OF corner or at 1B - with John Olerud as his best case scenario?

Wong wasn’t as good a college hitter as Davis. And if Swihart were his best case scenario, no one would be talking about him as a first rounder, let alone the first pick, would they?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'm having a hard time understanding why Rocker and Leiter have dropped out of the top 4 in various mock drafts. Playing in the SEC:

Rocker: 98 innings, 144 Ks, 2.93 ERA, .91 WHIP, 13.2 K/9.
Leiter: 89 innings, 146 Ks, 2.22 ERA, .87 WHIP, 14.8 K/9.

Rocker's stats have improved across the board since 2019 (except for walk rate at 3 walks/9 innings). Leiter's stats are phenomenal (again with a walk rate at 3.8 walks/9 innings). Is control the concern?

Comparing those two with a college catcher with suspect defensive skills and high school middle infielders, I'd go with Rocker or Leiter every time.
My gut tells me it is because Leiter and Rocker generally entered the season as the consensus 1-2, or at least as the most well-known prospects and top college players, and have been in the prospect-following consciousness longer, so there is some fatigue there and more time to pick apart potential flaws and such. While the high school players get to coast on projection and "unlimited potential" and whatnot, while Davis has come on as the new hotness that nobody was talking about last fall while we were rooting for losses.
 

johnnywayback

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Davis's best case scenario is basically Swihart. No guarantees there. And we already have Wong, who has more or less the same potential upside.
FWIW, these two statements are way off the consensus. People have put Buster Posey comps on Henry Davis, although I think that's in large part due to the fact that there aren't a lot of examples of "80 percent of Buster Posey," which is a more likely comp. But 80 percent of Buster Posey is still a perennial all-star and franchise cornerstone, whereas Wong's potential upside (and the highest upside even a Swihart stan like me put on him) is more like "guy who gives you a bit more athleticism/versatility/offense than a replacement-level catcher."
I'm having a hard time understanding why Rocker and Leiter have dropped out of the top 4 in various mock drafts.
Rocker's velocity has been up and down and there's concern that a lot of his success comes from blowing away hitters with fastballs and getting them to chase off-speed stuff down out of the zone -- which is harder to do at the major league level. Leiter got hit around a bit recently, which fueled concerns about his slight build holding up.

I think they're both excellent prospects, but pitchers are inherently risky and it is very scary to think about investing a top-4 pick in one whose flaws are already visible.
 

nvalvo

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This confuses me. What is your opinion based on? Davis walks more than he whiffs. His batting eye is extraordinary, and his contact skills are excellent. He has good pop. Even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate, why couldn’t he be a good average, great OBP, solid power guy in an OF corner or at 1B - with John Olerud as his best case scenario?

Wong wasn’t as good a college hitter as Davis. And if Swihart were his best case scenario, no one would be talking about him as a first rounder, let alone the first pick, would they?
Yeah. It feels like people have backed off the early Posey comps, but there's a long way to fall before we're looking at a Swihart ceiling.
 

Rovin Romine

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This confuses me. What is your opinion based on? Davis walks more than he whiffs. His batting eye is extraordinary, and his contact skills are excellent. He has good pop. Even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate, why couldn’t he be a good average, great OBP, solid power guy in an OF corner or at 1B - with John Olerud as his best case scenario?

Wong wasn’t as good a college hitter as Davis. And if Swihart were his best case scenario, no one would be talking about him as a first rounder, let alone the first pick, would they?
Would they? This is from the MLB website:
While he doesn't have a pretty right-handed swing, Davis makes it work at the plate and has a higher offensive ceiling than most catchers. He recognizes pitches, manages the strike zone well and makes repeated hard contact, even if his stroke lengthens and he gets a bit pull-happy at times. His strength and controlled aggression could produce 20 homers per season while he hits for a solid average and draws plenty of walks.

Davis' standout tool is his plus-plus arm strength, and he erased 34 percent of would-be basestealers in his first two college seasons while also displaying quick footwork and good throwing accuracy. His receiving lacks consistency and he sometimes struggles to handle quality stuff, but he has looked better in 2021 and should be able to remain behind the plate. He's quicker than most backstops and conceivably could try third base or an outfield corner if a team wants to maximize his offensive value.
My takeaways:
A) Funky RH swing that works well at the college level, but occasionally pull-happy/long stroke.
B) Upside is slightly-above league-average batting with 20 HR power.
C) Plus arm.
D) Not an overall great catcher but he "should be able to remain behind the plate." (Gee, that's an endorsement.)
E) But athletic, so 3B/OF Swihartian potential, as a fallback.

I just don't get the "top five pick" excitement from the actual skill set as reported. Lower first rounder, maybe.

FWIW, the SoxProspects write-up on Swihart:https://soxprospects.com/players/swihart-blake.htm
Pared down:
Hit: . . .Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. . .

Power: . . plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs).

Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage.

Field: Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism. . .

Run: Average runner, but above-average for catcher. Can go first to third and score from second. Alert on the basepaths with good instincts.
 

Yo La Tengo

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My gut tells me it is because Leiter and Rocker generally entered the season as the consensus 1-2, or at least as the most well-known prospects and top college players, and have been in the prospect-following consciousness longer, so there is some fatigue there and more time to pick apart potential flaws and such. While the high school players get to coast on projection and "unlimited potential" and whatnot, while Davis has come on as the new hotness that nobody was talking about last fall while we were rooting for losses.
I think this is on target. Mock drafts are only interesting if the names change and it is inevitable that we pick at the flaws.

Is there a general consensus on which subset of players (high school hitter or pitcher, college hitter or pitcher) most regularly live up to their draft slot?
 

sean1562

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I do wonder if the market for any draft content, across all sports, can influence the coverage of it to an extent. Nobody really wants to read the same "Oh I think its gonna be Lawler/Leiter/Mayer/Rocker" articles over and over again. Who knows how connected any of these guys are to the guys that actually scout and make these picks?

That being said, I do hope they get one of the Vandy guys. In an ideal world, they would be starting to anchor the Red Sox rotation around the time Sale(who I assuming will be elite to great when he gets back) really starts to tail off to a 2/3 starter. If Davis can't stay behind the plate and needs to be moved to 1B, his offensive profile sounds like Mitch Moreland's best years, more or less. That player costs $3 million on the FA market.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Would they? This is from the MLB website:


My takeaways:
A) Funky RH swing that works well at the college level, but occasionally pull-happy/long stroke.
B) Upside is slightly-above league-average batting with 20 HR power.
C) Plus arm.
D) Not an overall great catcher but he "should be able to remain behind the plate." (Gee, that's an endorsement.)
E) But athletic, so 3B/OF Swihartian potential, as a fallback.

I just don't get the "top five pick" excitement from the actual skill set as reported. Lower first rounder, maybe.

FWIW, the SoxProspects write-up on Swihart:https://soxprospects.com/players/swihart-blake.htm
I saw that scouting report but think it's far from the consensus view, at least on the hitting side. Could be right, who knows? But Law, for a contrary example, basically said the opposite ("beautiful swing"): The Athletic Ranks Henry Davis as No. 1 2021 MLB Draft Prospect - Sports Illustrated Louisville Cardinals News, Analysis and More

Also, If you're saying that Swihart's write-up and projection as a prospect was somewhat comparable to Davis's overall value/projection as a prospect, then ok. (There's still the differences between projecting a HS v college prospect.) But I understood you to be saying that Swihart's eventual career (to this point) is Davis's projection ceiling, which I'd just have to disagree with, based on what I've read.
 

gammoseditor

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Leiter started slipping because he missed a start. He was scratched at the last minute and the information from the team for the reason was vague. I believe he was also coming off his worst start of the season and there was fear he’d miss his next start. All that happened a month ago when mock drafts started coming out and Davis was the focus as the safe college bat. Now it seems like Khalil Watson is the shiny new toy.

IMHO there are 6-7 guys in the same tier and we should get one of them and not get cute with an under slot pick.
 

OCD SS

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Opinions on the class have shifted, but I think that’s going to keep there from being too many under slot deals as too many guys have a reasonable chance to go in the top 5 or 10; maybe Pittsburgh or Texas can play this game, but the Sox are basically coming in late enough to pick the best of the rest. Maybe they could go to Rocker or Jobe with an offer, but I’d expect the savings to be minimal (and even then I’m assuming the guys they would make the offer to are guys they’re sneaky-high on)
 

DavidTai

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Also, If you're saying that Swihart's write-up and projection as a prospect was somewhat comparable to Davis's overall value/projection as a prospect, then ok. (There's still the differences between projecting a HS v college prospect.) But I understood you to be saying that Swihart's eventual career (to this point) is Davis's projection ceiling, which I'd just have to disagree with, based on what I've read.
Swihart's career was kinda mucked up, I thought, by never really commiting to him as a catcher. I've never quite understood why they said he needed more work as a catcher, then... sent him out to play LF.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Swihart's career was kinda mucked up, I thought, by never really commiting to him as a catcher. I've never quite understood why they said he needed more work as a catcher, then... sent him out to play LF.
Because he was their third catcher (behind Vazquez and Hanigan), the LHH side of their LF platoon (Holt) was on the IL, and they wanted to get Swihart's bat into the lineup. It wasn't the worst plan in the world to try an athletic guy like Swihart in a more versatile role. He just had the misfortune of getting significantly injured.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I think this is on target. Mock drafts are only interesting if the names change and it is inevitable that we pick at the flaws.

Is there a general consensus on which subset of players (high school hitter or pitcher, college hitter or pitcher) most regularly live up to their draft slot?
IIRC, based on historical returns the order of ROI is basically:
HS hitter
College hitter
College pitcher
HS pitcher

Hitters produce more and have a higher likelihood of success than pitchers with rare exception (i.e. high school catchers have miserable draft record).

I would also push back on the idea that Leiter or Rocker are being dinged by virtue of nitpicking. Both have real, substantial concerns (secondary pitches, FB command, stature, etc). They are not David Price. I don't even like either as much as I liked Aaron Nola, the last college arm I thought was a true "can't miss" guy, and it comes down to their profile and how it translates to pro ball. I loved Nola because he has elite fastball control and excellent overall command; those traits translate very well, and as Nola and myriad others have shown, college arms can add velocity with a pro training regime. Guys with velocity but not necessarily control and stuff they can't necessarily command do not translate as well. Rodon, Appel, etc, the list of arms with huge stuff and dominant college numbers who struggle against pro hitters is lengthy.

Long story short, give me a hitter unless the scouts truly love one of the arms.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I would also push back on the idea that Leiter or Rocker are being dinged by virtue of nitpicking. Both have real, substantial concerns (secondary pitches, FB command, stature, etc). They are not David Price. I don't even like either as much as I liked Aaron Nola.
I took a look at the two names you mentioned (Price and Nola) in comparison to Rocker and Leiter:

Rocker: 98 innings, 144 Ks, 2.93 ERA, .91 WHIP, 13.2 K/9, 3 BB/9, 5.1 Hits/9, .6 HR/9.
Leiter: 89 innings, 146 Ks, 2.22 ERA, .87 WHIP, 14.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 3.9 Hits/9, 1.1 HR/9.

Price: 133 innings, 194 Ks, 2.63 ERA, .95 WHIP, 13.10 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 6.4 Hits/9, .2 HR/9.
Nola: 116 innings, 134 Ks, 1.47 ERA, .83 WHIP, 10.37 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 5.3 Hits/9, .31 HR/9.

Interesting to note that Rocker's control appears to have been much better two years ago (1.9 BB/9, .2 HR/9), which makes me wonder if he can regain that skill. Leiter doesn't have enough prior innings to make much of a comparison (he also gave up 11 homers this year).

[edit to add Hits/9 and HR/9]

Rocker today in Game 1 of the Super Regional against ECU:

7.2 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 11 Ks, no runs.
 
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Yo La Tengo

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IIRC, based on historical returns the order of ROI is basically:
HS hitter
College hitter
College pitcher
HS pitcher

Hitters produce more and have a higher likelihood of success than pitchers with rare exception (i.e. high school catchers have miserable draft record).
I'm curious if you think hitters are easier to project, pitchers are more likely to get injured, or both?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I absolutely loathe all of the media hype around the draft and all the prognostications on who will be drafted by whom.... But I do look forward to seeing who actually did draft who the following day.
Somehow I kept seeing "JULY 11th" as June 11th and I finally checked in to this thread expecting to check out exactly that... but fuck! Another godamned month of this crap.

edit- and the MLB draft is NOTHING compared to the NBA and NFL drafts, but still so full of media garbage
 

bosockboy

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Rocker just painted a 7.2 inning masterpiece (3 hits, 3 walks, 11 K, 0 runs) in Vandy's 2-0 squeaker over 40-15 E. Carolina in the opening game of their Super-regional.
It’s been so long since we’ve drafted a generational young arm, it’s hard to believe they’d pass on both Leiter and Rocker.
 

koufax32

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Just now noticing that Vandy’s mound isn’t dirt. Is that a concern with Leiter or Rocker when projecting a professional career?