2021 Draft

Danny_Darwin

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bringing this thread back to the 2021 thread, I’m mildly surprised that Hill is not listed. Personally I would prefer Hill over Leiter as he is bigger and I have less concerns over his arm long term than Leiters (purely based on size and not science, but I’m concerned with Leiter being slight and throwing that hard). Leiter could turn into the next Pedro and prove me wrong, I just have concerns.

For me it’s 1.) Rocker 2.) Hill 3.) Lawlar 4.) Fabian and I would be thrilled with any of the 4 at pick 4.
I am not a subscriber so I didn’t read it, but BA’s mock has them taking someone entirely different from any of the names you mentioned: a high-school shortstop named Marcelo Mayer. Sounds like he’s a good hitter who may or may not stick at the position?
 

Rich Garces Belly

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Hill has shoulder and elbow concerns already.
Thats not at all accurate!!

He had pain from a screw that been previously inserted into his collarbone while pitching in early 2019. He returned last year and looked great in a Covid shortened season and dominated the fall at LSU that just ended last month. I haven’t read/heard anything that says there is any long term injury concern and I’m pretty tapped into this. Can you provide a source about elbow/shoulder concerns lingering? I can provide hundreds that say the opposite if you would like.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
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In my post upthread I quoted his strength and conditioning coach saying in 2019, post-collarbone/shoulder issue, that they hoped he would add weight to "stabilize his elbow." Paint it one way if you like, but none of that sounds great.
 

Randy Red Sox

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Nov 28, 2020
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Do you have an opinion on a specific pitcher they should have drafted at #17? The Red Sox had roughly $5 million in draft pool money. They got Yorke for 1 million below slot value at $2.7 million and Blaze for 1.75 million. So their top 2 picks cost about 4.5 million total. Now you have $500,000 left to play with.
Now the crux of the matter is, If they drafted a pitcher at 17, that slot value was $3,600,000. There is no way they would have been able to pay for just their 2 top picks alone, much less signing a 4th and 5th rounder.
This was a money issue. They got 2 solid picks on discount, and were able to toss some cash to two left handed pitchers.

I got banned for a week for replying back to a poster who gave me a rude reply so I'm not going to disagree with anyone on here again. Yorke was a great pick in the 1st round and Chaim Bloom is doing a GREAT job for the Red Sox.
 

CR67dream

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I got banned for a week for replying back to a poster who gave me a rude reply so I'm not going to disagree with anyone on here again. Yorke was a great pick in the 1st round and Chaim Bloom is doing a GREAT job for the Red Sox.
Disagreeing is fine. We do it all the time. We are, however, a place known for requiring evidence of assertions, and for being required to support our opinions. I hope you will take a deep breath and start fresh. If there wasn't some hope that you'd be capable of that, it wouldn't have been a temporary break.

I've been here 20 years, and almost didn't make it a month. I learned, I hope you do, too.
 

jon abbey

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Coincidentally Eric Longenhagen did his in-depth annual ranking of Boston’s system today, he is also not a fan of their 2020 draft, FWIW.

“ Some of it is also, at least at this website, because I didn’t like their draft. I watched film (some from last summer and some from the alt site), talked to pro scouts who saw Nick Yorke after the draft, and doubled back to some crosscheckers on the West Coast who saw him before it. Their opinions were enough to move my pre-draft evaluation of him pretty considerably, but their class still feels sub-par to me. I’m not keen on positionless hitters, and the Red Sox may have drafted two of them. The shortened draft also punished Boston and other teams with thin farm systems, and made it impossible to find late-round diamonds in the rough like Boston did with Blalock and Cellucci in 2019. They did sign more undrafted free agents than other clubs, which makes sense considering the state of this system, though it’s also confirmation that the org is aware it needs more talent.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-boston-red-sox/
 

Randy Red Sox

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Nov 28, 2020
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Disagreeing is fine. We do it all the time. We are, however, a place known for requiring evidence of assertions, and for being required to support our opinions. I hope you will take a deep breath and start fresh. If there wasn't some hope that you'd be capable of that, it wouldn't have been a temporary break.

I've been here 20 years, and almost didn't make it a month. I learned, I hope you do, too.
Problem is that I have no idea what I was banned for. Could have been any post I guess.
 

jon abbey

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You were banned for making a lot of shitty posts in a very short time, and if you keep playing the martyr, you will be permabanned pretty quickly. There have been endless discussions here about Boston's lack of ability to develop homegrown pitching, I recommend a lot more reading here and a lot less posting if you want to hang around. Also, this is the 2021 draft thread, not the 2020 one.

Edit: Here is a link to the start of a discussion in July about that:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-talk-about-this-ballclub.30768/page-2#post-3946001
 

DJnVa

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Biggest opinion I have had for YEARS with the Red Sox is their lack of ability to develop homegrown pitching . It seems that view is not shared by many.
Actually, most people share that view. Come on man, learn from what the dopes are telling you.
 

Randy Red Sox

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Nov 28, 2020
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You were banned for making a lot of shitty posts in a very short time, and if you keep playing the martyr, you will be permabanned pretty quickly. There have been endless discussions here about Boston's lack of ability to develop homegrown pitching, I recommend a lot more reading here and a lot less posting if you want to hang around. Also, this is the 2021 draft thread, not the 2020 one.

Edit: Here is a link to the start of a discussion in July about that:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/lets-talk-about-this-ballclub.30768/page-2#post-3946001

Probably best just to read the posts then
 

ookami7m

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Probably best just to read the posts then
Yes - always better to read the content before replying to it. I'll second CR67 - I've been here for 17 years now and I've had my share of times where I didn't get it. Bring the takes all you want - but be prepared to defend them and show your work along the way.
 
Probably best just to read the posts then
This is getting derailed, but I think important enough to comment on. I've definitely found this to be true. The vast majority of the time on the internet it's not worth speaking up. That isn't to say there aren't times where it is worth contributing, but rather that when you set the bar higher for when you speak up you tend to only do so when you have something of substance to add. While this forum is hardly perfect and has plenty of low effort posts, the expectation is that contributions should have something more substantive than unsupported conjecture.

If you're new then nobody knows who you are how how much thought is behind your opinions. If you've done a bunch of analysis but just drop a one-liner conclusion, nobody will know that your conclusion is actually well thought out. It's much more likely that you're just regurgitating some talk radio hot take. Thus you're probably going to get dismissed, particularly if you make a lot of low effort posts over a short time frame. If you show your work and earn some respect then you'll get more leeway to be brief.

If you can't be arsed to back yourself up with evidence and/or argumentation then, yeah, it's probably best to keep away from that post button.
 

Yo La Tengo

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RedOctober3829

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I am not a draft expert at all, so, I'd love to hear more educated thoughts. But, I'd see the draft as a success if the Sox end up with Rocker, Leiter, or Hill (assuming healthy), in that order of preference.

Any insight on what the Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers are doing?
It's too soon for anyone to know what they are doing in the draft. There's a whole high school and college season in between now and the draft.
 

koufax32

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He’s got some Justin Verlander in his delivery. That movement is amazing. He’s the anti-Joe Kelly.
 

ehaz

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The three top college pitchers all had great outings this weekend.

Rocker: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K

Leiter: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K

Hill: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K
 

brandonchristensen

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Feb 4, 2012
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The three top college pitchers all had great outings this weekend.

Rocker: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K

Leiter: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K

Hill: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K
I want Leiter if only to try and capture what the jays are doing with the “sons of famous ball players” thing. It makes the game special.
 

jon abbey

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Leiter walked the first guy he faced today and then retired the next 27 for a no-hitter, 9 0 0 0 1 16 on 124 pitches.
 

jon abbey

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They pulled him after 7, so 16 no-hit innings in his first two SEC starts. That seems good.
 

ehaz

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For those with a BA subscription, Carlos Collazo did a mock draft this week.

1. PIT: Jordan Lawlar - SS (HS - Texas)
2. TEX: Kumar Rocker - RHP (Vandy)
3. DET: Jack Leiter - RHP (Vandy)
4. BOS: Marcelo Mayer - SS (HS - CA)
It seems like Mayer is the clear No. 4 after the top trio of players on the board. Whether he is in the mix of the top tier or just on the cusp of joining that top tier is still to be determined. Some scouts believe he has a chance to be the best pure hitter in the draft—college or high school—and with an impressive glove at a premium position, that gives him a two-way toolset that shouldn’t last long on the board. At the moment, it seems like the “place to pick” in this year’s draft class is either No. 3 or 4.
5. BAL: Adrian del Castillo - C (Miami)

Other notable pitching selections:
8. Gunner Hogland (RHP, Ole Miss)
9. Ty Madden (RHP, Texas)
12. Jaden Hill (RHP, LSU)

In reading about this draft, it appears that a consensus is forming around Rocker, Leiter, and Lawlar as a top three. I'm really hoping for del Castillo to turn it on so Texas or Detroit fall in love with a consensus #1 college bat.
 

RedOctober3829

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Leiter is the most dominant college starter I've seen in a long time. He had a rocky 1st inning last night which affected how long he was out there but after that he was nearly unhittable. His dominance reminds me of how Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer looked at UCLA.
 

RedOctober3829

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For those with a BA subscription, Carlos Collazo did a mock draft this week.

1. PIT: Jordan Lawlar - SS (HS - Texas)
2. TEX: Kumar Rocker - RHP (Vandy)
3. DET: Jack Leiter - RHP (Vandy)
4. BOS: Marcelo Mayer - SS (HS - CA)

5. BAL: Adrian del Castillo - C (Miami)

Other notable pitching selections:
8. Gunner Hogland (RHP, Ole Miss)
9. Ty Madden (RHP, Texas)
12. Jaden Hill (RHP, LSU)

In reading about this draft, it appears that a consensus is forming around Rocker, Leiter, and Lawlar as a top three. I'm really hoping for del Castillo to turn it on so Texas or Detroit fall in love with a consensus #1 college bat.
Leiter has to go #1. He's just that dominant and he's not going to have nearly as many innings under his belt that a pitcher would normally have if they went to college . Usually you go to college for 3 years and you're eligible for the draft. However Leiter went to prep school so he was at the HS level for 5 years(only threw between 50 and 60 IPs his junior and senior years) then his freshman season was cut short due to the pandemic. Pittsburgh is going to get a kid who has a more than full gas tank in terms of innings and can frankly get to the majors within a year of this year's draft. For all of the handwringing about Rocker, he's still limiting hitters to a .137 AVG, has a 0.84 ERA(4 ER's in 43 innings), and has 61 K's in those 43 innings. It does look like the Red Sox will miss out on these two plus Lawler, but Mayer or del Castillo is going to be a nice consolation prize at 4.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Leiter has to go #1. He's just that dominant and he's not going to have nearly as many innings under his belt that a pitcher would normally have if they went to college . Usually you go to college for 3 years and you're eligible for the draft. However Leiter went to prep school so he was at the HS level for 5 years(only threw between 50 and 60 IPs his junior and senior years) then his freshman season was cut short due to the pandemic. Pittsburgh is going to get a kid who has a more than full gas tank in terms of innings and can frankly get to the majors within a year of this year's draft. For all of the handwringing about Rocker, he's still limiting hitters to a .137 AVG, has a 0.84 ERA(4 ER's in 43 innings), and has 61 K's in those 43 innings. It does look like the Red Sox will miss out on these two plus Lawler, but Mayer or del Castillo is going to be a nice consolation prize at 4.
I thought Jaden Hill was expected to be a top 5 pick. What happened?
 

RedOctober3829

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I thought Jaden Hill was expected to be a top 5 pick. What happened?
Well, he's struggled to begin the year(2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25 Ks/12 BBs in 29 IP). He's given up a hit per inning and 23 ER in 29 IP. He also came out of last night's game with elbow pain which is not good at all. It leads me to believe that he's been pitching with an elbow injury and that season-ending surgery is on the table. He is getting evaluated on Monday per his coach Paul Manieri.
 

Danny_Darwin

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I know a lot can go wrong for pitching prospects, but it’s still tough not to be envious of Detroit possibly getting to add Leiter or Rocker to Mize and Skubal.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know a lot can go wrong for pitching prospects, but it’s still tough not to be envious of Detroit possibly getting to add Leiter or Rocker to Mize and Skubal.
Don’t forget Manning as well. And they have Torkelson and Greene coming for the lineup. Could be a really interesting team in a couple years, especially once Miggy’s contract comes off the books.