2021 Draft

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It's pretty obvious they need to develop starting pitching and 1 of Rocker/Leiter/Hill should be available. I get the best player available line of thinking and I'm usually right there with you, but it would be a shame to pass on one of those guys.
Maybe. Or maybe their internal scouting isn’t particularly high on any of them. It’s great that Vanderbilt has yielded some stars, but that’s still just a handful of pitchers over the last 20+ years
 

Kliq

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Is this one of those purity-test type statements where the pitcher has to be drafted out of HS and have two back-to-back all-star years for the Sox?
I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
You're making a big jump in declaring that they can't develop pitching. It may very well be that they've just done a shitty job of identifying talented young pitching. I would defy any organization to develop Trey Ball into a legitimate MLB contributor. If they had had the foresight to draft Walker Buehler instead of Benintendi, I have a lot of trouble believing he would have turned into Trey Ball under the Sox developers.

And while the definition of "successful" is subjective, guys like Workman and Barnes are contributing major league pitchers.
 

Kliq

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You're making a big jump in declaring that they can't develop pitching. It may very well be that they've just done a shitty job of identifying talented young pitching. I would defy any organization to develop Trey Ball into a legitimate MLB contributor. If they had had the foresight to draft Walker Buehler instead of Benintendi, I have a lot of trouble believing he would have turned into Trey Ball under the Sox developers.

And while the definition of "successful" is subjective, guys like Workman and Barnes are contributing major league pitchers.
I think that both things can be true. Obviously pitching is a crapshoot, but the Red Sox drafted Buchholz in 2005; that is an incredibly long time, hundreds of draft picks, and not a single one of them has turned into a quality major league starting pitcher. That has to be a scouting failure and a development failure; the strangest part being that it has been under multiple regimes. The Red Sox have basically no recent history of developing a quality starting pitcher; that makes me more pessimistic about the future of a Rocker/Leiter/Hill than I would be if we had some recent examples of success, beyond a few arms in the bullpen.
 

RedOctober3829

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You're making a big jump in declaring that they can't develop pitching. It may very well be that they've just done a shitty job of identifying talented young pitching. I would defy any organization to develop Trey Ball into a legitimate MLB contributor. If they had had the foresight to draft Walker Buehler instead of Benintendi, I have a lot of trouble believing he would have turned into Trey Ball under the Sox developers.

And while the definition of "successful" is subjective, guys like Workman and Barnes are contributing major league pitchers.
The area they have been the least successful in developing is starting pitching and it goes back to the beginning of the Epstein regime.
 

Jimbodandy

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The top three Red Sox prospects project as average regular, with only Casas having a ceiling as a regular all star (per SP).

The system needs high ceiling talent. Forget college/HS. Forget pitching/hitting. Draft high end talent period.
 
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I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
TINSTAAPP.
On the other hand, the Sox have excelled at finding and developing position players: Bradley, Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, maybe Dalbec. And using prospects — pitching and position — to trade for MLB pitching.
Several former Sox pitching prospects are effective MLBers, just not starters. Maybe Houck sticks as a starter.
How much of a guy sticking as a starter is just a roll of the dice? Going way back, maybe Papelbon could have been a starter, but need pushed him to the pen, then aptitude and attitude kept him there. Does Darwinzon Hernandez have the stuff to be a back-end starter, but the team feels he would be more valuable in another roll? As The Dude would say, there’s a lot of moving parts, a lot of ins and outs.
 

E5 Yaz

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The system needs high ceiling talent. Forget college/HS. Forget pitching/hitting. Draft high end talent period.
High-end talent that continues to develop also is always valuable when needing to trade for a major piece down the road.

You point is a good one. They need to deepen the top part of the system
 

Rovin Romine

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I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
I think there's some truth to that, certainly, and I have my own vague concerns on that score.

When I look at the drafts and international signings though, it seems a lot of depth was simply traded out of the organization, while other MiL pitchers came in who worked out to some degree. (E-Rod, Wright, et. al.) Some went down to injuries, and some are still here (Darwinzon, 2013).

That and the fact our draft picks weren't overwhelmingly high: Trey Ball in 2013 was 7 overall, as was Benintendi at 2017. But if we could have done Ball over with some magic forsight, here's a 2018 review of that draft class: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/reviewing-the-2013-mlb-draft-five-years-later-bryant-judge-headline-a-draft-class-that-had-a-bust-at-no-1/

Who would you pick in terms of pitchers - Sean Manea, Kendall Graveman, Knebel, Chad Green. Our very own Zach Godley?

I wonder if anyone has a single spreadsheet with Sox draftee/signee pitching outcomes.
 

nvalvo

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I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
Masterson absolutely had a solid MLB career! He pitched for 7 seasons and accrued 10 WAR! That's tremendous for a second round pick! (Rodriguez had reached AA with the Orioles.)

The thing about this is that we have a bunch of Sox prospects we've traded who are on the cusp. Michael Kopech headlines that group, but also Franky Montas and lesser talents like Shaun Anderson and, well, plenty of others like Espinoza or Kelly who have gotten hurt. Like, Montas isn't having a great season this year, but he looks like he could be a rotation stalwart for a few years. Kopech seems like a potential ace. If, by late 2021 or early 2022, Houck is in our rotation and Mata is on the cusp, while Montas and Kopech and Anderson are in rotations for the A's, White Sox, and Giants, the picture will look pretty different.

It just seems to me that the numbers are low enough even when you're successful that a handful of hard-to-predict injuries can shift the whole picture. Like, if Espinoza debuted successfully for the Padres in 2018, or if Casey Kelly were now a back-of-rotation piece for the Twins who play in Minneapolis not a front-of-rotation piece for the Twins who play in Seoul, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

So I guess my question is... compared to what? Clearly we're not developing pitching like the Indians are — but who is? The Indians clearly aren't developing outfielders like we are, and it's not like the Rangers or Royals or Mariners or whoever are producing good starting pitchers more frequently than we are.

It is also a strange complaint at a moment when the Red Sox farm system has been the leader in recent years in WAR by active players, and by a pretty large margin. The number may be out of date. It was driven, as you'd imagine, by standouts like Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Lester and Hanley Ramirez — and Ramirez is not currently active and Pedroia's is only technically so — but also contains a ton of guys we've traded around the league, from Yoan Moncada to Josh Reddick to Travis Shaw to Manuel Margot to Mauricio Dubon to Jed Lowrie. The bulk of that value, of course, is position players. So I think part of the perception that our farm system has been barren with pitching is a comparison to the fact that it's been incredibly effective on the position player side — we have four homegrown players with more than 10 career WAR on our roster right now, and a fifth in Devers who will reach that threshold by next May. That's an unusual amount of success.
 

Scoops Bolling

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A couple quick hits.

First, Vandy has produced some great pitchers. It has also produced a number of busts.
2017: #5 Overall Kyle Wright (still has time, but hasn't shown an inkling of command in his MLB career)
2016: #36 Jordan Sheffield and #45 Ben Bowden (relievers, if they make it)
2015: #8 Carson Fulmer is a career 6+ ERA with -0.8 career WAR (Buehler went #24)
2014: #14 Tyler Beede (multiple injuries, career ERA over 5)
2013: #58 Kevin Ziomek (bust)
2012: #66 Sam Selman (bust)

We'll see what happens with the guys from the last couple of drafts, but that's one good pitcher in 6 years. Even prior to that, you've got guys like Casey Weathers (#8 the same year as Price) or Grayson Garvin (#59 in the Gray draft) who did nothing.

Second, and leaping off the first, under no circumstances should the Red Sox be making a top draft choice by position of need. That is just hellaciously bad thinking. Drafting college pitching because you think your farm needs pitchers is how you end up selecting Greg Reynolds over Evan Longoria.
 

RedOctober3829

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A couple quick hits.

First, Vandy has produced some great pitchers. It has also produced a number of busts.
2017: #5 Overall Kyle Wright (still has time, but hasn't shown an inkling of command in his MLB career)
2016: #36 Jordan Sheffield and #45 Ben Bowden (relievers, if they make it)
2015: #8 Carson Fulmer is a career 6+ ERA with -0.8 career WAR (Buehler went #24)
2014: #14 Tyler Beede (multiple injuries, career ERA over 5)
2013: #58 Kevin Ziomek (bust)
2012: #66 Sam Selman (bust)

We'll see what happens with the guys from the last couple of drafts, but that's one good pitcher in 6 years. Even prior to that, you've got guys like Casey Weathers (#8 the same year as Price) or Grayson Garvin (#59 in the Gray draft) who did nothing.

Second, and leaping off the first, under no circumstances should the Red Sox be making a top draft choice by position of need. That is just hellaciously bad thinking. Drafting college pitching because you think your farm needs pitchers is how you end up selecting Greg Reynolds over Evan Longoria.
To me, every school has busts but I'd be very comfortable taking either Rocker or Leiter(even Hill as well) in the top 5 and taking my chances.
 

koufax32

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If my math is right, BOS is precariously perched at the 3rd pick. If they lose both and TEX wins both then we tie them for the 2nd pick (not knowing how that is decided). If they win both and ARI loses both they tie us. The biggest danger is DET. If they lose both and BOS wins at least one, they leapfrog BOS for the 3rd pick.

Go Braves, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Rangers!!!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If my math is right, BOS is precariously perched at the 3rd pick. If they lose both and TEX wins both then we tie them for the 2nd pick (not knowing how that is decided). If they win both and ARI loses both they tie us. The biggest danger is DET. If they lose both and BOS wins at least one, they leapfrog BOS for the 3rd pick.

Go Braves, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Rangers!!!
I believe the tiebreaker is 2019 record, so Texas holds it (having had a worse record than the Sox). The Sox are locked out of the top two picks at this point.
 

nvalvo

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I believe the tiebreaker is 2019 record, so Texas holds it (having had a worse record than the Sox). The Sox are locked out of the top two picks at this point.
Right. PIT and TEX have clinched 1 and 2.

It looks to me like the range of scenarios is the 3rd to 6th pick. Basically, because of the tiebreaker, Arizona can't get below us, even if they lose both their games and we win both of ours, but there's at least a hypothetical chance for everyone else. None of these teams are playing each other, although a couple of them are playing teams like KC and COL that feel like competitive contests.

ARI 24-34 .414 {BOS Tiebreaker}
BAL 24-34 .414 {BAL Tiebreaker}
WSH 23-34 .404 {BOS Tiebreaker}
DET 22-34 .393 {DET Tiebreaker}
BOS 22-36 .379
TEX 20-38 .345 {TEX Tiebreaker}
PIT 18-40 .316 {PIT Tiebreaker}

So I'll be rooting for Houck and Pivetta to throw gems, followed by late-inning bullpen implosions.

Still, I don't necessarily agree with the framing that it's Rocker and Leiter or bust: while Rocker certainly looks like good candidate to go 1-1, it looks there will be the normal complement of potential top-10 picks. Someone really promising will be available whenever we pick.
 

amfox1

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WAS won game 1 of their DH with NYM today. BOS will now pick between 3rd and 5th, assuming only 2020 record applies. A loss by BOS or a win by BAL tonight will tighten the range to 3rd/4th only.

EDIT: Neither happened, but DET won. A BOS loss on Sun (or wins by both DET and BAL on Sun) will clinch the 3rd pick.
 
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soxhop411

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So rooting interesting tomorrow is for tigers and cards to win.
 
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Sox Puppet

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I might be wrong; but dating back to Clay Buchholz, I can't recall the Red Sox developing a pitcher through their farm system that went on to have a solid MLB career. Justin Masterson maybe? You could argue Eduardo Rodriguez, but wasn't he mostly a AAA prospect when they got him from Baltimore? I think it is pretty clear that the organization has failed when it comes to developing pitching, and that it has been a long-term problem, constantly forcing the Sox to overpay veterans in free agency or to get them via trade.
It's interesting, isn't it, how a team will sometimes have one position that they rarely ever seem to get right in drafts? A parallel would be the Patriots and wide receiver -- in that example, their track record is so poor that it almost feels like they've given up on trying.
 

NomarsFool

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Typical in a 2 player draft the Sox end up with the 3rd pick (or worse). Baseball draft is quite the crapshoot, but college pitchers do seem like the most projectable talent (and an area of severe need for the Sox). As valuable as cost controlled pitching is, you can't just keep trading for it.
 

DeadlySplitter

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FWIW Leiter has slipped to around 6th-7th on draft boards lately.

Someone good will be available in the 3rd-5th spot even if it isn't Rocker or Leiter.
 

ehaz

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Probably no Rocker, Leiter still in play.

Hopefully they can do a bit more with #4 than they’ve been able to do with #7. But nothing is a guarantee in MLB drafts. Even top 5 picks are sort of crapshoots.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Here's a good write-up of top MLB Draft prospects:

1. Rocker 2. Lawlar 3. Hill 4. Fabian 5. McClain 6. Ethan Wilson 7. Jack Leiter

 

Mrmojo

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Here's a good write-up of top MLB Draft prospects:

1. Rocker 2. Lawlar 3. Hill 4. Fabian 5. McClain 6. Ethan Wilson 7. Jack Leiter

When I first saw the name "Rocker" I thought "The son of John Rocker"... A pretty good pitcher for a while and "controversial" guy.
 
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jon abbey

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When I first saw the name "Rocker" I thought "The son of John Rocker"... A pretty good pitcher for a while and "controversial" guy.
Kumar Rocker threw one of the best games I’ve ever seen on any level in last year’s NCAAs with his team facing elimination. It’s a best of 3 series and Duke won game 1 18-5, so clearly they could hit. In game 2, Rocker threw a complete game, 19 K, 131 pitch no-hitter, here are the 19 Ks:

View: https://youtu.be/d68LA4KSOsQ
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I got about ten post in and apologize if its been said before, but I couldn't read anymore because I knew it would just be repeated, you don't draft for need in baseball. You take the best damn player you have left on your board. If they get #3 or 4, and they take a SP because they need pitching, while the better positional player is sitting there, it's a dumb way to build a system. It's not the NFL or NBA. You're talking 2-3 years before a kid is actually ready to make a difference, unless you're 1 and a Strasburg or Harper is there. Thats how you sink a system.
 

jon abbey

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The #11 pick in this year’s draft (Crochet) was called up in September by the White Sox and was a big part of their bullpen, a lefty reliever who sat 100.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I was responding specifically to this:
I knew what you were responding to. We need to build our farm, a reliever isn't helping even if ready to fire from day one. How many players are that quick? And if this wasn't an entirely weird year they probably never would have called that kid up so quick.
 

Scoops Bolling

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The #11 pick in this year’s draft (Crochet) was called up in September by the White Sox and was a big part of their bullpen, a lefty reliever who sat 100.
Making him the first one since Mike Leake. I mean, Brandon Finnegan made it up the same year he was drafted. How'd that work out for him?
 

santadevil

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Kumar Rocker threw one of the best games I’ve ever seen on any level in last year’s NCAAs with his team facing elimination. It’s a best of 3 series and Duke won game 1 18-5, so clearly they could hit. In game 2, Rocker threw a complete game, 19 K, 131 pitch no-hitter, here are the 19 Ks:

View: https://youtu.be/d68LA4KSOsQ
I've never seen a catcher have to tag or throw down to first more often. They could've just posted one K and said he did this 18 more times
 

jon abbey

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One thing that stood out to me... not a single strikeout was on a fastball.
I think he threw a lot of FBs to get ahead, but former Vandy pitcher David Price elaborates on your observation:

“Nineteen times. Nineteen times they got punked by the exact same curve,” Price said between bursts of laughter. “It just looks like a down the middle, no-doubter strike. That’s what the Blue Devils were seeing. But then, right before it gets to the catcher’s mitt, the bottom just falls out. An imaginary hand pulls away a chair or something. All of a sudden, after swinging, the batter sees dirt fly up in the air. They probably were like, ‘did that just hit the dirt?”

 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Didn't the reliever the Sox draft only a year ago make a MLB appearance. Durbin Feltman??? What happened to him.... was expected to "contribute immediately" as I recall
 

edoug

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Didn't the reliever the Sox draft only a year ago make a MLB appearance. Durbin Feltman??? What happened to him.... was expected to "contribute immediately" as I recall
Of the 600 pitchers the Sox used, Feltman wasn't one of them