You're talking about re-signing Jackson, re-signing at least some of the FA OLs, signing a #1 WR, re-signing Byrd (who is a FA), signing a #1 TE, and addressing QB ... and that's before we get to the reality that Byron Cowart is the only DL under contract for 2021 (Guy, Davis, Butler, and Wise are all FAs). I just see too much here to do.
Too much to do to achieve what, though? Assemble a Super Bowl contender/top-2 seed? Completely agree with that - there are too many teams ahead of them to accomplish that over a single offseason.
Finding a league-average QB is hella hard and hella expensive. Tom Brady and Phil Rivers are tied for the 17th-high paid QB AAV at $25 MM a year. That's the going rate nowadays - if someone is even available.
The first place vs third place schedule thing is overrated. It's only two games. This year they played the first place team in the NFC North (Baltimore) and the AFC South (Houston), and Baltimore wound up being just OK this year while Houston wound up being terrible. They will probably play Baltimore again in 2021, as they figure to finish third. I don't know that the Souths are going to be a lot easier than the Wests were this year.
True, but they have almost $20 million coming off the books just from Brady's and AB's dead money going away. And I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them move on from Edelman via trade or just outright cutting him which would save some more money without really losing any talent compared to this year's team (it's also possible they don't cut or trade Edelman, and if he comes back at even like 80% of the player he's been in earlier years that's adding to the team's talent in a different way). And they can always draft a QB in addition or alternatively - other than Lawrence and Fields they'll have their choice of the bunch.
Agree that Thuney and Andrews are either going to be expensive re-signs or difficult to replace (although I wouldn't be shocked to see Andrews take a below-market deal to stay here). All of those other guys, though, strike me as the usual types they are willing to give up every year if another team offers them a decent contract, and they've had success in letting those types of players go while finding cheap replacements (whether via draft, free agent leftovers, etc.) that, taken together, match or exceed the production of the guys who left.
"Only two games" can be really important when you're a fringe playoff team, though, which is what the Pats will be next year in the optimistic scenario. Playing the Ravens and Broncos instead of KC and Pittsburgh isn;t a huge difference, but it's a material one. Same thing for NFC West vs. NFC South - playing the Panthers and Falcons instead of the Cardinals and 49ers isn't a huge difference, but I'd say it's marginally easier. And taking another step I'd say the same thing about getting play Jacksonville and Houston next year instead of Denver and SD this year. We're talking about maybe a 1 or 2 game swing but that could be a huge deal.
Some of those guys are not all that hard to replace. In particular, players like Wise, Eluemunor, Byrd, Bethel, and Simon tend to churn every year among NFL free agency. Some will stay and others will leave, but that's no different than any team; yet somehow teams in similar situations still manage to improve from year to year.
Aren't all schedules essentially balanced in the NFL?
I'm not sure that's true. There's a decent chance Wilson and Lance are gone by the time the Patriots pick, or at least one of them.
Sure, but it's not free to replace them, either. How many offseasons do we see $30 MM in cap space and have dreams of a big-ticket free agent, only to see them spend it on a bunch of smaller contracts instead? They have a lot of holes they're going to need to plug.
I wouldn't call it a pipe dream, but I won't be surprised if they're similar or slightly worse in 2021. I think it's a two-year rebuild and that's provided they can get their quarterback.
Agreed. I haven't ranked every team in under-25 talent, but I have to imagine they're in the bottom quarter, and it may be worse than that.
It's not nothing, but I think it's going to go pretty fast when you consider they don't have a QB and all the holes in free agency.
Agree with this philosophically but one offseason ago a guy like Humphries got 4x9 from the Titans. What does the market correction look like this year? I would love Jones but I don’t think he will be cheap.
Adam Humphries was a free agent at 25 years old--huge difference between that and Marvin Jones who will be turning 31. Humphries was also signed during a rising cap era; 2021 is going to be putting a very real squeeze on the market. The highest-end players will still get paid but the middle-class players (and older vets) are going to get pinched. They'll either sign for bargain 1-year deals and try again in a more normalized (but crowded) 2022 cap market, or just take what they can get on multi-year deals for the longer-term security.
I'm not sure of the, but would Hightower, Chung and Cannon coming back impact the cap?
Miguel's projected $58million in 2021 cap space accounts for Hightower, Chung, and Cannon coming back in 2021 and playing on their current deals. Cannon almost certainly will not (they save $7million by cutting him, and he may retire anyhow). They save $10million by cutting Hightower (they'd probably want to bring him back for less but he may also retire anyhow). Chung just extended this offseason and isn't going anywhere until the following offseason.
His cap hit is 5.1m. If he gets cut, it is a 7.5m dead cap.
