2021 Draft: Tank for Trevor - Can NE do it?

NomarsFool

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Biggest challenges remaining on the schedule:

11/19 vs. 0-7 Jets
11/22 vs. 1-6 Texans
12/6 vs. 2-5 Chargers
1/3 vs. 0-7 Jets

The rest of the schedule looks pretty manageable from a loss perspective :)
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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No way can they out-Jets the Jests. Although besides the Jets games, the only game they MIGHT be favored in is the Houston game. But man, if it comes down to January 3rd in shitty weather at an empty Gillette, that will be a turnover fest for the ages. Some of the worst football ever seen.
 

cshea

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Not a chance. I can't imagine a Bill Belichick team tanking.

They are clearly not talented but they've been in 6 of 7 games so far. I think they'll probably win 5-7 games.
 

DJnVa

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Remember, Houston's not tanking--their #1 pick goes to Dolphins.
 

E5 Yaz

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Remember, Houston's not tanking--they're #1 pick goes to Dolphins.
Can you imagine a Dolphins team that appears on the upswing getting the No. 1 pick ... then holding an auction?
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I don't think "tanking" is in Bill's vocabulary, so no, I don't think they can do it.

I'd say #5 is the highest pick they could get, but more likely in the 7-10 range. That means no Lawrence or Fields, but maybe Trey Lance.
 

Ferm Sheller

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If Cam got hurt and was lost for the year next game, how many wins could Stidham/Hoyer lead them to? Rhetorical question, but the answer could very well be zero.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The factor to consider here is that Lawrence has leverage if he doesn't want to go to the Jets. Its a very risky gambit and unlikely. But its possible.
 

Ferm Sheller

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The two high-profile QBs to go this route -- Elway and Eli -- wound up where they wanted to go
Was it where they wanted to go? Or was it more that they didn't want to play for the Colts and Chargers, respectively? I forget.

IOW, were there other acceptable destinations on their lists?
 

E5 Yaz

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According to Tankathon, the Patriots stand with the 9th pick at the moment
 

luckiestman

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I feel like I spoke this into existence a while ago and now I’m pissed off.
 

McBride11

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Here are the current front runners, teams not ranked with tie breakers in mind.

Of the 11 teams, 2 have young and good appearing QBs (LAC, CIN), 3 have vets on large contracts (ATL, HOU and MIN) so they may run into trouble moving on from these guys, 3 have QBs with high hopes that aren't working out (NYJ, NYG, WAS), 3 nothing at QB (NE, JAX, DAL).


Jets - 0-8 - probably take Trevor and dump Darnold
Texans - 1-6 - just paid Watson a bunch of money, but teams would probably trade for Watson and Tex take TL
Jaguars - 1-6 - definitely take TL and dump Minshew
Giants - 1-6 - ready to move on from Dan Jones all ready? Maybe BB picks up him for a 2nd rounder
Cowboys - 2-6 - take TL and move on from Dak, he wasn't signed and just ruined his leg
Washington - 2-5 - reportedly all ready ready to move on from Haskins, so TL likely taken
Falcons - 2-6 - need heir apparent to Ryan, but he is signed thru 2023
Vikings - 2-5 - cousins is signed thru 2022 at steep money, would be difficult to move on from
Chargers - 2-5 - Herbert looks good, unlikely to take TL
Bengals - 2-5 - just took Burrow, out on TL
Pats - 2-5 - no QB
 

Ferm Sheller

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Any team that feels set at QB and has the #1 pick is going to trade the pick, not use it to take someone other than Lawrence.
 

heavyde050

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Here are the current front runners, teams not ranked with tie breakers in mind.

Of the 11 teams, 2 have young and good appearing QBs (LAC, CIN), 3 have vets on large contracts (ATL, HOU and MIN) so they may run into trouble moving on from these guys, 3 have QBs with high hopes that aren't working out (NYJ, NYG, WAS), 3 nothing at QB (NE, JAX, DAL).


Jets - 0-8 - probably take Trevor and dump Darnold
Texans - 1-6 - just paid Watson a bunch of money, but teams would probably trade for Watson and Tex take TL
Jaguars - 1-6 - definitely take TL and dump Minshew
Giants - 1-6 - ready to move on from Dan Jones all ready? Maybe BB picks up him for a 2nd rounder
Cowboys - 2-6 - take TL and move on from Dak, he wasn't signed and just ruined his leg
Washington - 2-5 - reportedly all ready ready to move on from Haskins, so TL likely taken
Falcons - 2-6 - need heir apparent to Ryan, but he is signed thru 2023
Vikings - 2-5 - cousins is signed thru 2022 at steep money, would be difficult to move on from
Chargers - 2-5 - Herbert looks good, unlikely to take TL
Bengals - 2-5 - just took Burrow, out on TL
Pats - 2-5 - no QB
I think Miami has that Texans pick. Not sure if they would move Tua.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Two wins is too many already, plus there's no way BB tanks. I don't think he has it in him to begin with, but I also don't think he wants any of the players, some of whom he'll need next year and beyond, to think for one second that losing is an acceptable outcome.
 

EL Jeffe

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Yes, little-to-no chance of Tanking for Trevor. However, this is looking like a REALLY good QB crop. So...

Fail for Fields!
Lose for Lance!
Wabble for Wilson!

I'm a huge Zach Wilson fan and would be thrilled to see him as the heir apparent.
 

SMU_Sox

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Personally I’d love to see either Wilson or Fields under center for us next year or in the future. If they are within striking distance of trading up to get a QB I would pull that trigger. Trey Lance scares the shit out of me. I don’t like one year starters.

But Trevor Lawrence? Yeah not a chance.
 

Super Nomario

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Personally I’d love to see either Wilson or Fields under center for us next year or in the future. If they are within striking distance of trading up to get a QB I would pull that trigger. Trey Lance scares the shit out of me. I don’t like one year starters.

But Trevor Lawrence? Yeah not a chance.
I don't think all one-year starters are created equal. Lance was starting as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman and obviously this most recent "season" is a special circumstance. The eval is definitely tougher with a smaller sample (and FCS competition), but it's not like he sat for four years behind a nobody and didn't get to start until he was 23.
 

joe dokes

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Two wins is too many already, plus there's no way BB tanks. I don't think he has it in him to begin with, but I also don't think he wants any of the players, some of whom he'll need next year and beyond, to think for one second that losing is an acceptable outcome.
We'll know what BB thinks of this season if he trades away a bunch of players. But as to the bolded, he wont coach any differently with more shitty players.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't think all one-year starters are created equal. Lance was starting as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman and obviously this most recent "season" is a special circumstance. The eval is definitely tougher with a smaller sample (and FCS competition), but it's not like he sat for four years behind a nobody and didn't get to start until he was 23.
They aren’t, you’re right. To me it’s about risk. QBs bust a ton. So you’re already looking at a risky position. Add to that a one year FCS starter and that troubles me. The talent is there. I don’t doubt that he has miles of ceiling but he also has more risk associated with him. If I had to choose between him and Fields it’s an easy call for me.
 

Marbleheader

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They are not getting the #1 pick

I don't care where they draft, I have little to no confidence in Belichick and Caserio to pick the right guys. They desperately need to hire a college scouting director that has a strong voice in the draft room.
 

EL Jeffe

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They aren’t, you’re right. To me it’s about risk. QBs bust a ton. So you’re already looking at a risky position. Add to that a one year FCS starter and that troubles me. The talent is there. I don’t doubt that he has miles of ceiling but he also has more risk associated with him. If I had to choose between him and Fields it’s an easy call for me.
No, I'm with you. Lance is absolutely the real deal, but a 1-year player is just inherently risky. Reps and experience do matter. I'd personally rank them:

1) Lawrence
2) Fields
3) Wilson
4) Lance
5) Mac Jones
 

OurF'ingCity

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They are not getting the #1 pick

I don't care where they draft, I have little to no confidence in Belichick and Caserio to pick the right guys. They desperately need to hire a college scouting director that has a strong voice in the draft room.
This is a pretty bold statement considering since he's joined the team Belichick has almost never whiffed on a top-25 pick, and has literally never whiffed on a top-20 pick. There is simply zero evidence to suggest that Belichick isn't good at drafting high-end talent.
 

Cellar-Door

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Personally I’d love to see either Wilson or Fields under center for us next year or in the future. If they are within striking distance of trading up to get a QB I would pull that trigger. Trey Lance scares the shit out of me. I don’t like one year starters.

But Trevor Lawrence? Yeah not a chance.
You weren't convinced by his second season? I enjoyed them scheduling a single game to showcase him for the draft only for him to be not very good against Central Arkansas
 

Kliq

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The next OSU QB to have a good NFL career will be the first. As a matter of fact, the entire Big 10 isn't very good at producing NFL QBs. Unless you count Burrow/Wilson; the only starting QBs currently in the NFL from Big 10 schools are Cousins, Brady and Brees, the latter two from two generations ago. Not that that really means anything for Fields.
 

E5 Yaz

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This is a pretty bold statement considering since he's joined the team Belichick has almost never whiffed on a top-25 pick, and has literally never whiffed on a top-20 pick. There is simply zero evidence to suggest that Belichick isn't good at drafting high-end talent.
Patriots Top 25 picks in the past 10 years
2011 Nate Solder (17)
2012 Chandler Jones (21), Donta Hightower (25)

The point being made is that there's no existing evidence that would suggest what the current organizational / evaluation structure would do with a high draft pick ... and plenty of evidence to suggest that their recent draft success has been spotty
 

johnmd20

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The next OSU QB to have a good NFL career will be the first. As a matter of fact, the entire Big 10 isn't very good at producing NFL QBs. Unless you count Burrow/Wilson; the only starting QBs currently in the NFL from Big 10 schools are Cousins, Brady and Brees, the latter two from two generations ago. Not that that really means anything for Fields.
Fields is no Braxton Miller, Cardale Jones, Haskins or JT Barrett. He's actually a really good passer.

Fields has a chance to be great.
 

Kliq

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Fields is no Braxton Miller, Cardale Jones, Haskins or JT Barrett. He's actually a really good passer.

Fields has a chance to be great.
For sure, but Haskins put up better numbers than Fields did just one season before Fields took over and his start in the NFL has been...not great.
 

DJnVa

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I don't know---each player stands alone. Or we could just continue to draft QBs from Kent St to play WR because Edelman was awesome.
 

nolasoxfan

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I get all of the "BB isn't going to tank" talk, but the team has been trying to win for the past four games and, yet, here we are at 2-5. I say it's well within reach if you DREAM BIG.
 

trekfan55

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Was it where they wanted to go? Or was it more that they didn't want to play for the Colts and Chargers, respectively? I forget.

IOW, were there other acceptable destinations on their lists?
I think that Elway simply did not want to play for the Colts/in Baltimore.

But I am quite sure Archie Manning and Eli Manning were very specific in wanting to go to the Giants, which is how they ended up trading Rivers for Manning.
 

Seels

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Fields is going to be a superstar. I don't think it's just a Trevor class.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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If they beat the Jets next Monday night, we can lock the thread.
They hold their fate in their hands.

Two big jets losses, and were in business.

I just cant see it. BB could beat this Jets team even when hes trying to lose. They're fucking BAD.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Wabble for Wilson!

I'm a huge Zach Wilson fan and would be thrilled to see him as the heir apparent.
El Jeffe referenced Zach Wilson in another thread and led me to watch the last couple of BYU games... pretty pretty pretty good.
 

Bergs

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For sure, but Haskins put up better numbers than Fields did just one season before Fields took over and his start in the NFL has been...not great.
I don't know---each player stands alone. Or we could just continue to draft QBs from Kent St to play WR because Edelman was awesome.
That system is not one that is going to produce top-flight NFL QBs. Which is smart for them, as they can continue to win with guys who don't project to be top-flight NFL QBs.

Joe Burrow rode the pine there, in part due to bad injury luck, but also because his skillset was almost superfluous to what they ask of a QB. tOSU goes off-road, they don't have much use for a Ferrari.